Summer Forecast East Standings 2016

[Snidely FC]

ESPN out with 2016 Summer Forecast East Standings: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/17131133/2016-summer-forecast-east-standings
1. Cleveland Cavaliers 57- 25
T2. Boston Celtics 51-31
T2. Toronto Raptors 51-31
T4. Detroit Pistons 45-37
T4. Indiana Pacers 45-37
6. Atlanta Hawks 44-38
7. Charlotte Hornets 43-39
T9. Washington Wizards 41-41
T9. New York Knicks 40-42
10. Chicago Bulls 40-42
11. Milwaukee Bucks 39-43
12. Miami Heat 36-46
13. Orlando Magic 35-47
T14. Philadelphia 76ers 20-62
T14. Brooklyn Nets 20-62

Kemba Walker took a step forward last season, averaging a career-best 20.9 points per game. His potential has the Hornets still above .500 according to our projections, but the losses of Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee will make it hard for the Hornets to get back to such heights.

[fatlever]

MKG is invisible. I guess I can't blame the talking heads for ignoring MKG. Until he proves he can stay healthy for a season and play at an improved level, with an improved shot, I don't expect anyone to take him seriously. I can live with a prediction of finishing 7th. I was expecting something worse from ESPN.

[JDR720]

thats pretty close to what i have.

would add some wins to Orlando and Bucks, take a couple from the Knicks and take some from the Heat.

[Flip Murray]

I would argue that Indiana is a worse team than they were last year

[yosemiteben]

I would argue that Indiana is a worse team than they were last year

Me too. They also have a new coach coming in. I don't expect them to have a better year this year than they had last year.

[Mystical Apples]

The Pacers were 45-37 last year and lost > 10 wins above replacement via Hill-Mahinmi-Hill but for some reason are above 48-34 CHA who "lost" ~ 0.5 via partial Lee + partial Al + Lin + partial PJ's grossly negative 938 minutes. Thad-Teague-Al are additive but barely 1/2 of what they lost, George is unlikely to duplicate last year, and the other holdovers will probably be net negatives vs. last year.

Guessing the Pacers snag +/- 38 wins. After Cleveland, Toronto/Boston, Charlotte, and Atlanta - roughly in that order - the EC will be a pile of 30-40 win teams.

[TinmanZBoy]

it is about right, I am surprised they did not move down the Hornets too far since the Hornets is always an under the radar team

[Mystical Apples]

BTW Charlotte's 2015-16 expected win total was closer to 50 than 48 actual. EW's baseline (whichever is used) accounts for the randomness of the bouncy ball and arbitrary end-points, esp at the extremes. For example, the unlucky Utah (40/47,W/EW) and Atlanta (48/53) vs. fortunate Memphis (42/34), Milwaukee (33/28), and Chicago (42/36). Utah's internal improvements + summer acquisitions are added to a 47 EW team but their 15 win jump from 40 to 55 will be a "surprise."

Here are wins above replacement CHA lost from 50 EW's. In reality, the loss of Lee-Lin-Al-lolPJ is minor compared to the potential (and understandable) reversion and/or minute reduction for Kemba and Marvin. And of course doesn't account for MKG's potentially massive impact (+3-6) improvements of Cody-Frank-Lamb (+ 2-5), or Hawes completely erasing Al's +0.5.

Al: +0.5
Lin: +1.0
Courtney: +0.7 (prorated)
PJ: -1.2 (prorated)

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/pj-hairston/

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

I am in general agreement about Indiana not being as good as predicted. I also feel like Boston is pretty overrated here even with an OK summer. They would have needed to have gotten someone like Russ for me to feel good about them being 2nd or 3rd in the east.

My mad prediction now:

1. Toronto
2. Cleveland (they coast some this year)
3. Charlotte

[Snidely FC]

Bradford Doolittle of ESPN Insider reacts to ESPN's summer forecast by using Wins Against Replacement roster additions and subtractions to project wins.
He finds MIL to be the most underrated team in ESPN's forecast (projected 3 or more wins better than ESPN rank):

The Bucks should get substantially better from within due to the growth curves of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker. On top of that, the difference in collective wins above replacement (WAR) among the rotation players coming and going is nearly six wins in the Bucks' favor, and the overall roster fit is improved. Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic were exactly the kind of players head coach Jason Kidd needed. And have you seen Thon Maker?

Most overrated (teams projected to finish 3 games worse than ESPN projection):
CLE 53 wins
NYK 40 wins
BKn 16 wins

More or less agree:
Raptors 51
Celtics 51
Pistons 45
Pacers 45
Hawks 44
Hornets 43
Wizards 41
Bulls 40
Heat 36
Magic 35
76s 20

Charlotte Hornets 43 wins. Charlotte won 48 games with a point differential one win better than that. But the three main additions (Roy Hibbert, Ramon Sessions, Marco Belinelli) all have worse RPMs than their outgoing counterparts (Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee). Charlotte will need a healthy Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and growth from within.

[Mystical Apples]

Bradford Doolittle of ESPN Insider reacts to ESPN's summer forecast by using Wins Against Replacement roster additions and subtractions to project wins.
He finds MIL to be the most underrated team in ESPN's forecast (projected 3 or more wins better than ESPN rank):

MIL 39 wins. The Bucks should get substantially better from within due to the growth curves of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker. On top of that, the difference in collective wins above replacement (WAR) among the rotation players coming and going is nearly six wins in the Bucks' favor, and the overall roster fit is improved. Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic were exactly the kind of players head coach Jason Kidd needed. And have you seen Thon Maker?

Most overrated (teams projected to finish 3 games worse than ESPN projection):
CLE 53 wins
NYK 40 wins
BKn 16 wins

More or less agree:
Raptors 51
Celtics 51
Pistons 45
Pacers 45
Hawks 44
Hornets 43
Wizards 41
Bulls 40
Heat 36
Magic 35
76s 20

Charlotte Hornets 43 wins. Charlotte won 48 games with a point differential one win better than that. But the three main additions (Roy Hibbert, Ramon Sessions, Marco Belinelli) all have worse RPMs than their outgoing counterparts (Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee). Charlotte will need a healthy Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and growth from within.

I get Doolittle sticking to his model but I'm sure he'd say 0 added wins from MKG isn't how he'd personally bet the season. In general though, a model vs writer article without methodology (and specific win totals) seems rushed. Specifically, alternately citing WARP (public) and RPM (non-public) without explanation.

Milwaukee's is the most curious - Doolitlle totally glossed over their 5th worst -4.2 point differential (+/- 28 wins) without mentioning how the Bucks go from 28 to 39 besides "the growth curve" of Giannis and Parker. It's doubtful those 2 provide more than 4 additional wins which needs to be calibrated against Monroe, Parker, Giannis and Middleton missing a combined 16 games last year.

[antique0o0]

For playoff teams, Raptors and Hawks are underrated. Celtics, Pacers, and Pistons are overrated.

[Eoghan]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-30-nba-starting-lineups-hint-warriors-are-pretty-good/

CBS' ranks all 30 teams' starting line ups.

Prepare your jimmies for rustling.

Spoiler:

We're 20th.

[Flip Murray]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-30-nba-starting-lineups-hint-warriors-are-pretty-good/

CBS' ranks all 30 teams' starting line ups.

Prepare your jimmies for rustling.

Spoiler:

We're 20th.

Wolves are such a classic right now. Take the under everybody if you want that sweet cash.

[Flip Murray]

My jimmies aren't rustled at all. I'll just note that Kemba-Batum-MKG-Williams-Zeller had the best point differential in the league last year so there's that

[SWedd523]

It's to be expected. Just look at the gen board predictions, most of those jagaloons have the Hornets finishing from 8-12 in the East

[HornetJail]

ESPN out with 2016 Summer Forecast East Standings: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/17131133/2016-summer-forecast-east-standings
1. Cleveland Cavaliers 57- 25
T2. Boston Celtics 51-31
T2. Toronto Raptors 51-31
T4. Detroit Pistons 45-37
T4. Indiana Pacers 45-37
6. Atlanta Hawks 44-38
7. Charlotte Hornets 43-39
T9. Washington Wizards 41-41
T9. New York Knicks 40-42
10. Chicago Bulls 40-42
11. Milwaukee Bucks 39-43
12. Miami Heat 36-46
13. Orlando Magic 35-47
T14. Philadelphia 76ers 20-62
T14. Brooklyn Nets 20-62

Kemba Walker took a step forward last season, averaging a career-best 20.9 points per game. His potential has the Hornets still above .500 according to our projections, but the losses of Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee will make it hard for the Hornets to get back to such heights.

My predictions:
1) Cavs - 59
2) Celtics - 54
3) Hornets - 53
4) Raptors - 52
5) Pacers - 44
6) Pistons - 43
7) Hawks - 42
8) Wizards - 35
-
9) Magic - 34
10) Knicks - 33
11) Bulls - 32
12) Bucks - 31
13) Heat - 30
14) Nets - 25
15) Sixers - 18

There's really only five tiers to me, and the teams in those tiers could go in any order.
1: The Cavs are by themselves at the top.
2: us, Toronto, and Boston are in the next tier with a record somewhere between 50-55 wins apiece
3: Indiana, Detroit, and Atlanta are the next tier- not really special teams but they'll make the playoffs because everyone else sucks
4: seeds 8-13 are a complete toss-up of crappy teams that are not .500 teams but not bad enough to out-tank the Sixers.
5: the crap tier. The Sixers suck by design, Brooklyn just plain sucks. Part of me thinks that Miami may join this bottom tier if Bosh can't play next season.

[Hornet Mania]

1. Cleveland
2. Atlanta
3. Toronto
4. Boston
5. Indiana
6. Charlotte
7. Detroit
8. New York

-Going out on a limb with the Hawks. I feel like their system will right the ship this year, Shroeder will be better than Teague and Dwight will be motivated and his overall impact will eclipse Horford.
-I'm way less high on Boston than everyone else these days it seems.
-I put us at 6 as a hedge, in reality I could see us anywhere from 3-10 depending on injuries and how well Sessions replaces Lin.
-Detroit and NY are both unproven but if it all clicks they could be much higher.
-Can't believe Miami and Washington are so far down the standings. Orlando also looks sneaky-good, could be the surprise 8th seed. Our conference is nuts this year, lots of improvement everywhere.