2016 Official Speculation Thread: Episode V - The Preseason Strikes Back

[thelead]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/17145557/the-orlando-magic-fighting-become-viable-again
Just a couple of quips

To rival executives, the Magic still look aimless after a frenzy of transactions sloughed away 10 of the 16 guys who logged at least 200 minutes last season. They paid a backup center, Bismack Biyombo, starter money after sniffing around a similar deal for Joakim Noah,

Meanwhile, groups lumping Gordon alongside two traditional bigs and Elfrid Payton, perhaps an even worse shooter than Gordon, could barf up bricks as defenses strangle the lane. With the rim walled off, the Magic have settled for a ton of midrangers and struggled to earn foul shots.

That shaky playmaking imperils the Ibaka-Biyombo combo, about which the Magic are giddy. That duo will menace teams on defense. But swapping out Vucevic cramps Orlando's spacing, and both Ibaka and Biyombo were among just 16 rotation players last season who averaged one or fewer assists per 36 minutes.

It is hard to run a functional NBA offense with two non-passers, regardless of what position they play. Over the last nine seasons, no pair who dished so few dimes logged even 1,000 minutes together, per ESPN Stats & Information.

Payton runs the show in Orlando, and teams are going to duck way under picks against him until he proves he can hit open 18-footers at a rate that actually scares people:

"That's a challenge," Vogel said. "I'm not going to hide from that. It's Elfrid's third year. That has to develop into a money shot."

If Payton can't get to the rim, he gives up the ball -- and transforms into a Rajon Rondo-level liability no one bothers to guard, neutering Fournier's crafty pick-and-roll game:

The potential playmaking void is one reason the Magic are in no rush to trade Vucevic despite the logjam, league sources say. They might need his post game, and especially his passing. Last season, Vucevic quietly morphed into one of the league's best passing centers. He assisted on 16 percent of Orlando's hoops while on the floor, a tidy number for a big man; only five centers racked up more potential assists, per SportVU tracking data.

Orlando didn't pay Biyombo $70 million to back up Vucevic for 15 minutes a game. That would be lunacy.

Who on this team has to in him to be that vocal leader? That's the only thing this team is missing IMO

Is Marcus Smart available?

This never gets old:

Watch on YouTube

But his shot selection does... Which is a shame.

[Tayswagzzz]

I wouldn't pursue Smart...he isn't much better in the shooting department than Payton. If we need to trade Payton, and Vucevic is disgruntled (he could be if he loses the starting spot) then I think a good trading partner would be the Phoenix Suns. Trade centered around Payton/Vucevic for Bledsoe or Knight.

[KillMonger]

Watch on YouTube

[npiper17]

Slightly OT but following on from previous discussions about the need for numerous national media outlets to grade drafts / trades / free agent moves within hours of them occurring, Bleacher Report has an article up about redrafting the 2016 draft following Summer League. Absolute madness.

[KingRobb02]

Slightly OT but following on from previous discussions about the need for numerous national media outlets to grade drafts / trades / free agent moves within hours of them occurring, Bleacher Report has an article up about redrafting the 2016 draft following Summer League. Absolute madness.

I don't know if you remember, but there were a few years where was a point in time where a major news outlet tasked one of their writers with doing a re-draft the following Friday. I'm pretty sure it was the year the Knicks to Renaldo Balkman in the first round because I remember the argument being that he would have definitely been available later.

[tiderulz]

I wouldn't pursue Smart...he isn't much better in the shooting department than Payton. If we need to trade Payton, and Vucevic is disgruntled (he could be if he loses the starting spot) then I think a good trading partner would be the Phoenix Suns. Trade centered around Payton/Vucevic for Bledsoe or Knight.

phoenix has no use for Vuc with Len, Chandler, Bender and Chrisse there.

[npiper17]

Slightly OT but following on from previous discussions about the need for numerous national media outlets to grade drafts / trades / free agent moves within hours of them occurring, Bleacher Report has an article up about redrafting the 2016 draft following Summer League. Absolute madness.

I don't know if you remember, but there were a few years where was a point in time where a major news outlet tasked one of their writers with doing a re-draft the following Friday. I'm pretty sure it was the year the Knicks to Renaldo Balkman in the first round because I remember the argument being that he would have definitely been available later.

No I don't remember that. Anything to get clicks / views I suppose. The next step will be to redraft as the draft takes place!

[Baka_La Flame]

Elfird
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Ibaka

Is our best five moving forward. Not sure how willing serge will be to play the 5 as his primary position tho.

[KingRobb02]

Elfird
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Ibaka

Is our best five moving forward. Not sure how willing serge will be to play the 5 as his primary position tho.

ugh. That looks like a recipe for a 10 seed.

[PennytoShaq]

Elfird
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Ibaka

Is our best five moving forward. Not sure how willing serge will be to play the 5 as his primary position tho.

ugh. That looks like a recipe for a 10 seed.

Oh, wow, that looks like the recipe for a playoff team.

See how easy it is to make those kind of statements?

[KingRobb02]

Elfird
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Ibaka

Is our best five moving forward. Not sure how willing serge will be to play the 5 as his primary position tho.

ugh. That looks like a recipe for a 10 seed.

Oh, wow, that looks like the recipe for a playoff team.

See how easy it is to make those kind of statements?

Okay, so somewhere in the 8-10 range?

[Howard Mass]

I still maintain that Hezonja will eventually start at SF this season.

Gordon at the 3 would make this team tough defensively but you need Hezonja out there with Fournier on the wings to open things up especially with Elfrid Payton at point guard.

Really? Gordon looked way farther ahead than Hezonja last season. I really can't see that happening.

i just don't see Gordon as a 3 and you need to be able to spread the floor and operate better offensively.

I am not saying Hezonja is the better player though.

[KingRobb02]

Elfird
Fournier
Hezonja
Gordon
Ibaka

Is our best five moving forward. Not sure how willing serge will be to play the 5 as his primary position tho.

ugh. That looks like a recipe for a 10 seed.

Oh, wow, that looks like the recipe for a playoff team.

See how easy it is to make those kind of statements?

I'll explain. That lineup is counting on some guys that I don't have faith in. I like Elf, but I think he would thrive on a team with better offensive talent. I like Evan, but not as a go-to scorer. Mario really needs to show the shooting stroke we drafted him for, and I just don't understand why people ahve so much faith in Ibaka offensively. If I told you we had a Center who shoots 47% from the field, 32% from 3, doesn't pass, can't dribble, and the Rockets respect him so much that they hide Harden on him, I don't think you would be happy about it.

[KingRobb02]

I still maintain that Hezonja will eventually start at SF this season.

Gordon at the 3 would make this team tough defensively but you need Hezonja out there with Fournier on the wings to open things up especially with Elfrid Payton at point guard.

Really? Gordon looked way farther ahead than Hezonja last season. I really can't see that happening.

i just don't see Gordon as a 3 and you need to be able to spread the floor and operate better offensively.

I am not saying Hezonja is the better player though.

People seem to take it as an insult when you say Aaron shouldn't be a wing. In reality, I look at it like I look at Draymond Green. Dray is clearly a top 12 NBA player, but putting him at SF is just a waste of an advantage. His ball handling, passing, and rim protection combo makes him the one of the best PF alive, but those same gifts don't give him quite the same advantage as a SF.

[Dennis Reynolds]

Who on this team has to in him to be that vocal leader? That's the only thing this team is missing IMO

Is Marcus Smart available?

This never gets old:

Watch on YouTube

Wanna know what gets old soon? Watching Smart's offensive highlights.

35% from the field and 25% from 3.... 3 assist in 27 min.... all for better on the ball defense that Payton could still be reasonably good at.... oh and i guy that doesn't seem to have a position in this league.... I'll pass.

Smart actually isn't as bad as the numbers would suggest. Just like @thelead said,his biggest problem is his shot selection. He's obviously not much of a shooter but he still takes more than 5 3s per36. That's crazy. I also can't count all the times I've seen him take contested shots off the dribble. Really hard to believe how such a poor shooter can be so trigger happy. Really like the fire he plays with along with his defense but I would take Elfrid over him because he's a better scorer and playmaker and he has a higher ceiling. Elf also has the potential to be a top notch defender so I really see no reason to go for Smart.

[KingRobb02]

Wanna know what gets old soon? Watching Smart's offensive highlights.

35% from the field and 25% from 3.... 3 assist in 27 min.... all for better on the ball defense that Payton could still be reasonably good at.... oh and i guy that doesn't seem to have a position in this league.... I'll pass.

Smart actually isn't as bad as the numbers would suggest. Just like @thelead said,his biggest problem is his shot selection. He's obviously not much of a shooter but he still takes more than 5 3s per36. That's crazy. I also can't count all the times I've seen him take contested shots off the dribble. Really hard to believe how such a poor shooter can be so trigger happy. Really like the fire he plays with along with his defense but I would take Elfrid over him because he's a better scorer and playmaker and he has a higher ceiling. Elf also has the potential to be a top notch defender so I really see no reason to go for Smart.

I remember comparing him to Tony Allen leading up to the draft. People thought that was insane and claimed he was better than Tony already.

[VFX]

I'll just say that
PF - Ibaka
C- Vuc
Are pretty much locked down at this point. We wouldn't have traded for Ibaka and acquired Biyombo if they didn't think AG could play the 3. Now I'm still in the camp that AG isn't a 3, but situationally he will play some pf. With that being said, I think our "best" line up is
Payton
Fournier
AG
Ibaka
Vuc

I would rather have
Payton
Fournier
Hezonja
AG
Ibaka
But I doubt that will happen with starters minutes.

[Dennis Reynolds]

35% from the field and 25% from 3.... 3 assist in 27 min.... all for better on the ball defense that Payton could still be reasonably good at.... oh and i guy that doesn't seem to have a position in this league.... I'll pass.

Smart actually isn't as bad as the numbers would suggest. Just like @thelead said,his biggest problem is his shot selection. He's obviously not much of a shooter but he still takes more than 5 3s per36. That's crazy. I also can't count all the times I've seen him take contested shots off the dribble. Really hard to believe how such a poor shooter can be so trigger happy. Really like the fire he plays with along with his defense but I would take Elfrid over him because he's a better scorer and playmaker and he has a higher ceiling. Elf also has the potential to be a top notch defender so I really see no reason to go for Smart.

I remember comparing him to Tony Allen leading up to the draft. People thought that was insane and claimed he was better than Tony already.

Allen was actually aware of his weaknesses and he put some pretty solid scoring numbers on average efficiency per 36 during his career. I say that because Tony Allen comparisons are used too often for my liking. Every guy who can play some D but can't shoot/score to save his life gets compared to Tony Allen and it irritates me. Tony Allen is an all time great defender with limited offensive game but I wouldn't call him a scrub on that end of the floor unlike plenty of guys who get compared to him. To get back on topic,if Smart realizes his weaknesses,he can get there and maybe even become a better player than Allen eventually so that's a fair comparison for him but overall I really doubt he will ever be much of a scorer or playmaker.

[PennytoShaq]

ugh. That looks like a recipe for a 10 seed.

Oh, wow, that looks like the recipe for a playoff team.

See how easy it is to make those kind of statements?

I'll explain. That lineup is counting on some guys that I don't have faith in. I like Elf, but I think he would thrive on a team with better offensive talent. I like Evan, but not as a go-to scorer. Mario really needs to show the shooting stroke we drafted him for, and I just don't understand why people ahve so much faith in Ibaka offensively. If I told you we had a Center who shoots 47% from the field, 32% from 3, doesn't pass, can't dribble, and the Rockets respect him so much that they hide Harden on him, I don't think you would be happy about it.

47 and 32% are not his numbers at the C position. It's not like he was dunking half the time and cleaning glass. So I don't have an issue with those.

The others are all players we expect to see improve under Vogel, so that is why many people here are more optimistic. Mario has the stroke, his issues seem more about confidence.

[KingRobb02]

Smart actually isn't as bad as the numbers would suggest. Just like @thelead said,his biggest problem is his shot selection. He's obviously not much of a shooter but he still takes more than 5 3s per36. That's crazy. I also can't count all the times I've seen him take contested shots off the dribble. Really hard to believe how such a poor shooter can be so trigger happy. Really like the fire he plays with along with his defense but I would take Elfrid over him because he's a better scorer and playmaker and he has a higher ceiling. Elf also has the potential to be a top notch defender so I really see no reason to go for Smart.

I remember comparing him to Tony Allen leading up to the draft. People thought that was insane and claimed he was better than Tony already.

Allen was actually aware of his weaknesses and he put some pretty solid scoring numbers on average efficiency per 36 during his career. I say that because Tony Allen comparisons are used too often for my liking. Every guy who can play some D but can't shoot/score to save his life gets compared to Tony Allen and it irritates me. Tony Allen is an all time great defender with limited offensive game but I wouldn't call him a scrub on that end of the floor unlike plenty of guys who get compared to him. To get back on topic,if Smart realizes his weaknesses,he can get there and maybe even become a better player than Allen eventually so that's a fair comparison for him but overall I really doubt he will ever be much of a scorer or playmaker.

I know what you're saying, but I wasn't just making a lazy comparison. I was pretty much the only person saying he wasn't a point guard and questioning his impact. People pointed to the fact that he was really good at okstate and I reminded people thay Tony Allen was an offensive force in college too.