Orlando early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Smitty731/HowardMass)

[MJallday59]

I really hope it conveys (for Orlando's sake only of course).

I'm sure you have only the purest of concerns as far as that matter.

ESPN's forecast put them at 3rd, so with a ~47% chance of keeping the pick.

If they do, I wonder if the 4 year contracts to Deng and Movgov will be revisited as subtle tanking signings versus an attempt to win now.

(Cause this thread needed more gasoline)

I would be totally cool with: Payton/Expirings/Magic 2017 pick or Lakers Pick -( Whichever happens first) & future first

Bledsoe/Fournier/Gordon/Ibaka would be a lot of fun to watch

[Un4given]

First of all, Vogel instead Skiles is an A+++ for me.

Free agency is another A, would be with plus with Augustin on 3 y deal with team option on third year and without Meeks signing. Fournier and Biyombo both seem like an excellent deals in Today's market, especially because both of them are young enough to improve their game further. I actually like Green deal too (despite it's clearly an overpay from basketball reasons) but could be used as a nice salary filler in case of a trade during a season and it's just a placeholder who adds some depth to the team for FA 2017 otherwise.

Not sure what to think about Ibaka trade tbh. It definitely makes sense in fit reasons and it's is showing the direction where team is going because between Peyton, Fournier and Dipo one man was the odd one imho but I guess only time will tell who was a winner of that one. It's almost impossible to predict how change of scenario would affect both Dipo and Ibaka and how good Sabonis can actually become. Of course, possibility of Ibaka walking away after one season is another reason for being concerned.

In conclusion, I think Orlando becoming a better team while securing more development time for their youngsters and remaining cap flexible for next season deserves an A-. Still, having some concerns that aftermath of Ibaka trade could prove me wrong.

[tiderulz]

I'm very curious to see how Orlando's offense looks this season. As others have mentioned, there's some strange fits and Vogel is a poor coach offensively. I could easily see them having a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense.

I think "poor coach offensively" is a bit over-exagerrated. Indiana seemed about average offensively, but they were also fairly consistently top-10 in point differential. I also dont remember any offensive stars other than PG on that team. kinda hard to make chicken salad with chicken #$@#%

[tiderulz]

I'm very curious to see how Orlando's offense looks this season. As others have mentioned, there's some strange fits and Vogel is a poor coach offensively. I could easily see them having a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense.

You just described the pacers this past season. They won 45 games.

Ok? I didn't say that would mean they would suck. But I can tell you from experience that's not the way to win in the playoffs (and we had a top 15 player).

seem to remember Indiana giving Miami all they could handle, with just PG and not the greatest support cast against possibly 3 HOF players. That is an extreme upgrade over Skiles.

[wise1-2]

And again, that's fine. But giving away lottery picks is a bad idea, period. And Ibaka is more unique, he's also not played as well the last 2 seasons. And VO doesn't have to be Bledsoe, he's already a top 10 SG most likely, and Ibaka's older. And unrestricted. And more expensive.

Well that's not saying much considering SG position is the weakest in the NBA. I think being a top 10 PF is more impressive. Ibaka being unrestricted won't matter if Hennigan is confident of resigning him. We also dont know how much he'll get. He might get max, and might not. Maybe Hennigan can work out an extension for a little less money. We'll see what happens with their contract situations. Oladipo is demanding a max extension though.

Serge wasn't a top 10 power forward last year though. To add, he will definitely be making more money on his next contract, Ann's just giving a pic on top of that makes it worse.

I disagree. There aren't ten PFs I'd take over serge, its much easier to make the argument that there are ten SGs better than Oladipo actually. Even if I were to agree that serge wasn't top 10 last year, a change of scenery will likely help, and he's already proven he can be a high impact player. Oladipo has not.

And I'm so glad Hennigan doesn't overvalue picks as much as RealGM. At the end of the day losing the 11th pick in a weak draft will barely affect them. I'm glad Hennigan sees the big picture. OKC can enjoy their bench big/meh starter. Zimmerman might be a decent rotation big or better anyway. At the moment, they're both not needed though.

[wise1-2]

I'm sure you have only the purest of concerns as far as that matter.

ESPN's forecast put them at 3rd, so with a ~47% chance of keeping the pick.

If they do, I wonder if the 4 year contracts to Deng and Movgov will be revisited as subtle tanking signings versus an attempt to win now.

(Cause this thread needed more gasoline)

I would be totally cool with: Payton/Expirings/Magic 2017 pick or Lakers Pick -( Whichever happens first) & future first

Bledsoe/Fournier/Gordon/Ibaka would be a lot of fun to watch

Payton is about to raise his trade value big time. It would be a bad idea to trade him now.

[jayjaysee]

I'm very curious to see how Orlando's offense looks this season. As others have mentioned, there's some strange fits and Vogel is a poor coach offensively. I could easily see them having a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense.

You just described the pacers this past season. They won 45 games.

I don't know which stat to we choose to list top 5 o/d... But Indy scored the 17th most points in the league and allowed the 8th fewest, not really the same.. 24th ortg and 3rd drtg though? So bottom 7 and top 3.. I guess that's the stat you are looking at.. I'd think George, Hill, and Monte offer a more attractive base for an offense than two too soon prospects in AG anD Elf and Evan. Maybe you'd prefer the Orlando players long term, but for one season - which is what people are talking about..

And a big difference is Pacer fans last season were claiming it was a retool season and they didn't expect to make the playoffs *unless Paul George looked like an MVP. Orlando fans are acting like this isn't still a process season.

i remember Orlando getting universally panned for the Howard trade. How could we not take Bynum, he is a top big man in the game.

We will check back if Dipo plays a combined 516 more minutes in his career that will have some relevance. Even a better reference if he never plays in OKC.

[bondom34]

Well that's not saying much considering SG position is the weakest in the NBA. I think being a top 10 PF is more impressive. Ibaka being unrestricted won't matter if Hennigan is confident of resigning him. We also dont know how much he'll get. He might get max, and might not. Maybe Hennigan can work out an extension for a little less money. We'll see what happens with their contract situations. Oladipo is demanding a max extension though.

Serge wasn't a top 10 power forward last year though. To add, he will definitely be making more money on his next contract, Ann's just giving a pic on top of that makes it worse.

I disagree. There aren't ten PFs I'd take over serge, its much easier to make the argument that there are ten SGs better than Oladipo actually. Even if I were to agree that serge wasn't top 10 last year, a change of scenery will likely help, and he's already proven he can be a high impact player. Oladipo has not.

And I'm so glad Hennigan doesn't overvalue picks as much as RealGM. At the end of the day losing the 11th pick in a weak draft will barely affect them. I'm glad Hennigan sees the big picture. OKC can enjoy their bench big/meh starter. Zimmerman might be a decent rotation big or better anyway. At the moment, they're both not needed though.

Zimmerman isn't nearly the prospect Sabonis is. And Oladipo has more a chance to improve given his age.

[wise1-2]

I'm very curious to see how Orlando's offense looks this season. As others have mentioned, there's some strange fits and Vogel is a poor coach offensively. I could easily see them having a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense.

You just described the pacers this past season. They won 45 games.

I don't know which stat to we choose to list top 5 o/d... But Indy scored the 17th most points in the league and allowed the 8th fewest, not really the same.. 24th ortg and 3rd drtg though? So bottom 7 and top 3.. I guess that's the stat you are looking at.. I'd think George, Hill, and Monte offer a more attractive base for an offense than two too soon prospects in AG anD Elf and Evan. Maybe you'd prefer the Orlando players long term, but for one season - which is what people are talking about..

And a big difference is Pacer fans last season were claiming it was a retool season and they didn't expect to make the playoffs *unless Paul George looked like an MVP. Orlando fans are acting like this isn't still a process season.

i remember Orlando getting universally panned for the Howard trade. How could we not take Bynum, he is a top big man in the game.

We will check back if Dipo plays a combined 516 more minutes in his career that will have some relevance. Even a better reference if he never plays in OKC.

Pacers and Knicks had the same ORTG, so basically bottom 6th. BTW the Magic were 22nd last year. I don't see them regressing much if at all. Another example of defense winning you games is te hawks who were as bad as the Magic last year on that end, but were top 3 defensively. Moreover, 12 of the 13 top teams in DRTG made the play offs last season (excluding Utah who won 40).

Also it doesn't really matter what pacers fans thought. What matters are the results. They also didn't expect George to come back that strong after his injury, and thought Turner was more of a project, not a legit starter in his rookie year.

[wise1-2]

Serge wasn't a top 10 power forward last year though. To add, he will definitely be making more money on his next contract, Ann's just giving a pic on top of that makes it worse.

I disagree. There aren't ten PFs I'd take over serge, its much easier to make the argument that there are ten SGs better than Oladipo actually. Even if I were to agree that serge wasn't top 10 last year, a change of scenery will likely help, and he's already proven he can be a high impact player. Oladipo has not.

And I'm so glad Hennigan doesn't overvalue picks as much as RealGM. At the end of the day losing the 11th pick in a weak draft will barely affect them. I'm glad Hennigan sees the big picture. OKC can enjoy their bench big/meh starter. Zimmerman might be a decent rotation big or better anyway. At the moment, they're both not needed though.

Zimmerman isn't nearly the prospect Sabonis is. And Oladipo has more a chance to improve given his age.

Ibaka will be playing for the best coach he's ever played for. Only time will tell.

[bondom34]

I disagree. There aren't ten PFs I'd take over serge, its much easier to make the argument that there are ten SGs better than Oladipo actually. Even if I were to agree that serge wasn't top 10 last year, a change of scenery will likely help, and he's already proven he can be a high impact player. Oladipo has not.

And I'm so glad Hennigan doesn't overvalue picks as much as RealGM. At the end of the day losing the 11th pick in a weak draft will barely affect them. I'm glad Hennigan sees the big picture. OKC can enjoy their bench big/meh starter. Zimmerman might be a decent rotation big or better anyway. At the moment, they're both not needed though.

Zimmerman isn't nearly the prospect Sabonis is. And Oladipo has more a chance to improve given his age.

Ibaka will be playing for the best coach he's ever played for. Only time will tell.

Maybe, maybe not. But time will tell.

[jayjaysee]

Pacers and Knicks had the same ORTG, so basically bottom 6th. BTW the Magic were 22nd last year. I don't see them regressing much if at all. Another example of defense winning you games is te hawks who were as bad as the Magic last year on that end, but were top 3 defensively. Moreover, 12 of the 13 top teams in DRTG made the play offs last season (excluding Utah who won 40).

So ORTG is the stat we are using..

One, noting Orlando's improvements and ignoring everyone else's isn't a fun way to discuss league wide projections. I don't know why so many people do that. It's circular.

Simplifying the Atlanta Hawks offense last season to just ORTG to make the case is just too much a stretch for me really.

I think Orlando is in a great spot moving forward and think signing Green to a huge one year deal to roll the cap space was the right move. The offseason plan failed but they put a bandaid on it and will try again next year. It's clearly what happened. Having a top 30...top 40.. player is very important to winning games, imo. Gordon has that value because he likely will be, but he's a kid.. And I don't think it is fair to expect AG to be what he would need to be for the team to be what some are so confident it will be. And I would have kept Dipo over Elf.

[Smitty731]

ESPN's forecast put them at 3rd, so with a ~47% chance of keeping the pick.

If they do, I wonder if the 4 year contracts to Deng and Movgov will be revisited as subtle tanking signings versus an attempt to win now.

(Cause this thread needed more gasoline)

I would be totally cool with: Payton/Expirings/Magic 2017 pick or Lakers Pick -( Whichever happens first) & future first

Bledsoe/Fournier/Gordon/Ibaka would be a lot of fun to watch

Payton is about to raise his trade value big time. It would be a bad idea to trade him now.

That seem optimistic. Unless he suddenly learned how to shoot over the offseason, he's never going to be much as a PG. Take it from someone who watched Rondo said/heard/read all the same stuff, it isn't like to happen. People like to bring up that Jason Kidd became a shooter. 1 Guy for the literally hundreds who never did. I don't think Payton is the next guy. And even if he does, his other skills aren't at an elite level.

FWIW, several told me if there was a market for him, the team would have much rather traded him vs Oladipo. There just wasn't any sort of market.

[jayjaysee]

Also it doesn't really matter what pacers fans thought. What matters are the results. They also didn't expect George to come back that strong after his injury, and thought Turner was more of a project, not a legit starter in his rookie year.

So.. Because everything worked out perfectly for Indiana last season, that is the base for Orlando? Every "if" in Indy's book was checked and they won 45 games. And they had a top 10 player.

So that's the bar you are using for Orlando. IF everything, then 45 games. If Gordon. If Vuc/Serge. If Elf.

[wise1-2]

Pacers and Knicks had the same ORTG, so basically bottom 6th. BTW the Magic were 22nd last year. I don't see them regressing much if at all. Another example of defense winning you games is te hawks who were as bad as the Magic last year on that end, but were top 3 defensively. Moreover, 12 of the 13 top teams in DRTG made the play offs last season (excluding Utah who won 40).

So ORTG is the stat we are using..

One, noting Orlando's improvements and ignoring everyone else's isn't a fun way to discuss league wide projections. I don't know why so many people do that. It's circular.

Simplifying the Atlanta Hawks offense last season to just ORTG to make the case is just too much a stretch for me really.

I think Orlando is in a great spot moving forward and think signing Green to a huge one year deal to roll the cap space was the right move. The offseason plan failed but they put a bandaid on it and will try again next year. It's clearly what happened. Having a top 30...top 40.. player is very important to winning games, imo. Gordon has that value because he likely will be, but he's a kid.. And I don't think it is fair to expect AG to be what he would need to be for the team to be what some are so confident it will be. And I would have kept Dipo over Elf.

If ORTG doesn't convince you then check their other stats. 12th in FG% RIGHT behind the Hawks, and 16th in 3pt% with the Hawks having the same %. Their offensive issues are being and have always been overblown. Their biggest issue is not getting to the FT line, and will remain an issue I think unless AG fills that role. He's completely capable. He's entering his third year and ready for a major improvement, and he was very productive this past season. Someone will emerge into a top 30 or 40 player. They have like 4 guys capable of being top 40 next year IMO.

[RexRyan]

"Scott Skiles quitting on Orlando Magic is pathetic low point in franchise history" - March, 2016, Orlando Sentinal

Since Hennigan took over in June, 2012.....

20-62, last in Southeast
23-59, last in Southeast
25-57, last in Southeast
35-47, last in Southeast

If Hennigan had such a long list of good deals, they would have done something better than last last place at least once in four years. Now the rebuild has been short-circuited because the aging owner wants to make the playoffs! What could possibly go wrong?

Its called a rebuild. They were the second youngest team in minutes played last season. They only traded one of their many young guys to accelerate team growth. They had to move one of Mario, Fournier or Oladipo. If they make another 10 game improvement next year like they did last year, that's 45 wins. Also, I'm sure whoever wrote that article completely changed his mind when Vogel decided to sign with the Magic over the multiple teams that were pursuing him. Skiles leaving was the best thing that happened to the Magic this offseason.

It's called short circuiting the rebuild so the old owner and failing GM can tell the fan base, "Top 16 or bust!" They traded two young assets for a declining player in a contract year. They didn't have to move anyone. If they don't make the playoffs, Hennigan will scapegoat a couple of players and buy himself another couple of years. I'm sure the author of that article is laughing his rear end off at all of these moves, while Vogel basically says 'WTF?' in the Lowe article. Skiles was a Hennigan signing, and that failed miserably.

[wise1-2]

Also it doesn't really matter what pacers fans thought. What matters are the results. They also didn't expect George to come back that strong after his injury, and thought Turner was more of a project, not a legit starter in his rookie year.

So.. Because everything worked out perfectly for Indiana last season, that is the base for Orlando? Every "if" in Indy's book was checked and they won 45 games. And they had a top 10 player.

So that's the bar you are using for Orlando. IF everything, then 45 games. If Gordon. If Vuc/Serge. If Elf.

No all I'm doing is explaining why some Pacers fans might ve had low expectations before the season began.

For the record, I think the Magic win 43 and grab the 8th seed.

[wise1-2]

I would be totally cool with: Payton/Expirings/Magic 2017 pick or Lakers Pick -( Whichever happens first) & future first

Bledsoe/Fournier/Gordon/Ibaka would be a lot of fun to watch

Payton is about to raise his trade value big time. It would be a bad idea to trade him now.

That seem optimistic. Unless he suddenly learned how to shoot over the offseason, he's never going to be much as a PG. Take it from someone who watched Rondo said/heard/read all the same stuff, it isn't like to happen. People like to bring up that Jason Kidd became a shooter. 1 Guy for the literally hundreds who never did. I don't think Payton is the next guy. And even if he does, his other skills aren't at an elite level.

FWIW, several told me if there was a market for him, the team would have much rather traded him vs Oladipo. There just wasn't any sort of market.

I disagree. I think he can be a great defender, and very good passer and penetrator. He doesn't have to be a good shooter either, just good enough. I figured he has little value ATM, that is partly why I think he'll raise his trade value next year.

[wise1-2]

"Scott Skiles quitting on Orlando Magic is pathetic low point in franchise history" - March, 2016, Orlando Sentinal

Since Hennigan took over in June, 2012.....

20-62, last in Southeast
23-59, last in Southeast
25-57, last in Southeast
35-47, last in Southeast

If Hennigan had such a long list of good deals, they would have done something better than last last place at least once in four years. Now the rebuild has been short-circuited because the aging owner wants to make the playoffs! What could possibly go wrong?

Its called a rebuild. They were the second youngest team in minutes played last season. They only traded one of their many young guys to accelerate team growth. They had to move one of Mario, Fournier or Oladipo. If they make another 10 game improvement next year like they did last year, that's 45 wins. Also, I'm sure whoever wrote that article completely changed his mind when Vogel decided to sign with the Magic over the multiple teams that were pursuing him. Skiles leaving was the best thing that happened to the Magic this offseason.

It's called short circuiting the rebuild so the old owner and failing GM can tell the fan base, "Top 16 or bust!" They traded two young assets for a declining player in a contract year. They didn't have to move anyone. If they don't make the playoffs, Hennigan will scapegoat a couple of players and buy himself another couple of years. I'm sure the author of that article is laughing his rear end off at all of these moves, while Vogel basically says 'WTF?' in the Lowe article. Skiles was a Hennigan signing, and that failed miserably.

Trading some of your young guys is a natural part of most rebuilds. Like how the Sixers are looking to trade one of their young bigs. It happens.
And most say Skiles wasn't really Rob's decision. Most think it was Martins, but I wasn't with them when it happened so I cannot tell you for sure.

[Slava]

I respect your opinion here but I must ask do you think the spacing got worse, stayed the same or got better?
What do you think about the talent of the major rotation compared to last year?

Last year
Payton,Oladipo,Fournier,Gordon, Vucevic
Bench: Jason Smith, Dewayne Dedmon, Ersan Ilyasova,C.J. Watson, Mario Hezonja

This year
Payton/Fournier/Gordon/Ibaka/Vucevic
Bench: Jeff Green/Bismack Biyombo/Jodie Meeks/D.J. Augustin/Mario Hezonja

Your spacing was bad last year but getting a PG that can make an outside shot coming out of pick and rolls could have resolved issues if you played Gordon at PF.

Now it's no better and you are making it worse by playing a PF at SF.

Vogel himself claimed in interviews that you'd have to win games with a 70-68 scoreline. That's not a great endorsement of roster balance from your coach himself.

you dont seem to have really watched Gordon play if you call him a PF. his game is all SF, he isnt great at post defense, his man defense at the perimeter is 10x better. He has better ball handling, has issues with bigger, thicker PF's moving him for position.

Good god, Gordon's best case scenario is Serge Ibaka. He doesn't have the ball handling, passing or shooting skill to play sf. If you put him at the 3 you have three lumps who cannot put there ball on the floor and not turn it over.

If he can switch on defense to smaller guys and guard them well, that's an advantage but using him permanently to play a defensive sf is basically limiting his quickness as he is rapid quick for a PF but average for a sf.