Welcome Okafor: Thread 2

[Ericb5]

pretty hilarious reading local pundits opine about the the never ending controversy of our front line situation when they are the ones who can't leave it alone, constantly ginning is up with some new "analysis" or trade rumor or something. and their hubris in demanding that we make a trade immediately, even if we get nothing in return, to prevent the damage of going into the pre-season with 3 centers is downright jawdropping. c'mon. don't you want to see what simmons, saric, embiid, okafor and noel can do in various line-ups? with the possible exception of a truly satisfying trade offer for a sterling backcourt prospect, on court performance and developing team chemistry will guide Bryan and Brett's decisions.

I want Noel traded. Longterm if Embiid stays healthy (big if) he really doesn't have a spot. His rookie deal also expires at the end of the year which doesn't give us the luxury of slow playing things.

What i will say though is that I'd rather keep Noel even if the fit is non-optimal then make some of the awful trades being bandied about here. Especially considering most of the players being discussed are probably backups once this team gets good anyways.

Me too, but don't you think Avery Bradley could be the kind of player that would be worth trading Noel for? Assuming that he comes with another asset, like a future lottery protected first.

Bradley would end up as a back up if we somehow manage to get two studs in the draft next year, but he is a damn good player, that would really improve us, and would play a lot even if he ended up not starting.


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[spikeslovechild]

No I don't. His PER was 13.2 last season.

He works for us because we have Simmons but he's a PG without traditional PG skills without the size to play anywhere else. He's still a good player but nowhere near what I want for Noel. Noel even with the flaws I constantly harp on is a better player right now and has the potential to get better.

So no I'm not making that deal and no I'm not making the deal if they throw in a protected first either. I don't know why Everytime there are new trade rumors being bandied about our players always lose value. First we declined the bin pick for oak now according to Chad Ford he's not even worth a top ten. Noel went from untouchable, to worth 3rd overall pick plus some fillers, to Avery Bradley all in the span of an off season. He hasn't even played a game this season and his value has already declined to such an extent.

I shudder to think what he will be worth when he you know actually plays and doesn't get a ton of minutes due to Embiid some of you might be ready to move him for Smart.

[76ciology]

No I don't. His PER was 13.2 last season.

He works for us because we have Simmons but he's a PG without traditional PG skills without the size to play anywhere else. He's still a good player but nowhere near what I want for Noel. Noel even with the flaws I constantly harp on is a better player right now and has the potential to get better.

So no I'm not making that deal and no I'm not making the deal if they throw in a protected first either. I don't know why Everytime there are new trade rumors being bandied about our players always lose value. First we declined the bin pick for oak now according to Chad Ford he's not even worth a top ten. Noel went from untouchable, to worth 3rd overall pick plus some fillers, to Avery Bradley all in the span of an off season. He hasn't even played a game this season and his value has already declined to such an extent.

I shudder to think what he will be worth when he you know actually plays and doesn't get a ton of minutes due to Embiid some of you might be ready to move him for Smart.

He's also an overrated defensive player with a negative DRPM.

My personal ideal model for wings is one who can shoot 3 and rotate into the paint and challenge shots around the rim like Danny Green. And Bradley doesn't give you that.

Really tough to get equal value for our bigs. That's why IMO you would need to package it with one or two of our lotto and trade quantity for quality.

For me, the C position is the deepest position in the league. You can easily get a rim protector off FA or draft. That's also my case why I want Jah to move at PF, not only because I think his tools are more suited at PF (even Lakers think so), but if he can transition into the PF position, I think his trade value will increase.

[Ericb5]

No I don't. His PER was 13.2 last season.

He works for us because we have Simmons but he's a PG without traditional PG skills without the size to play anywhere else. He's still a good player but nowhere near what I want for Noel. Noel even with the flaws I constantly harp on is a better player right now and has the potential to get better.

So no I'm not making that deal and no I'm not making the deal if they throw in a protected first either. I don't know why Everytime there are new trade rumors being bandied about our players always lose value. First we declined the bin pick for oak now according to Chad Ford he's not even worth a top ten. Noel went from untouchable, to worth 3rd overall pick plus some fillers, to Avery Bradley all in the span of an off season. He hasn't even played a game this season and his value has already declined to such an extent.

I shudder to think what he will be worth when he you know actually plays and doesn't get a ton of minutes due to Embiid some of you might be ready to move him for Smart.

I think that the only reason that Noel's trade value has dropped is because he showed serious limitations in his second year. He showed that he can't score without being spoon fed, and he can't defend the 4 as well as his athleticism should allow.

He is basically a very low BB IQ player, and that means that he can only be a defensive oriented 5. That is still a good thing, but after his rookie year it looked like he could be more than that.

I agree that Bradley doesn't have point guard skills, but as you said, we don't need that with Simmons on the team. I think he is big enough to guard a lot of shooting guards too.


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[Negrodamus]

Maybe he isn't as quick as Hakeem, but he is at least 3 inches taller than him, and has all the body control and footwork. They are both natural athletes, and natural learners.

I really don't understand why people shy away from the obvious. He is just as good of a prospect as Hakeem was at the same point in his development.

That doesn't mean that he will progress as far as Hakeem.


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No, he WAS as good of a prospect as Hakeem was at the same stage (freshman year of college). Two years of no playing later, we don't know what his new "ceiling" is. Hakeem might not have become the same player if he had to sit out for two years after his freshman season.

Well we are probably talking about the same thing then. I don't think a prospect's ceiling changes. It just becomes more or less likely to be reachable.

His ceiling as a prospect is as high as Hakeem. You have just lost confidence that he can reach it.

That's your choice of course. I personally haven't lost faith at all. If he can stay healthy, he is going to be a monster.

Also, I think that there isn't really any such thing as "lost development time". It is just "delayed development time"

Had he never gotten hurt he would be a better basketball player today for sure, but it doesn't mean that he won't be the same player he was destined to be when he is 25.

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That's why ceilings don't really mean much to me. It's a way to boost up a players perceived value while having built in caveats.

"Embiid's a freak, his ceiling is definitely Olajuwon."

"Well just because his ceiling is Olajuwon, it doesn't mean he will reach it."

I'd rather hear what he can realistically become than a bloated, absolute best case scenario. Especially for a guy who has been sitting out for two seasons.

[spikeslovechild]

No I don't. His PER was 13.2 last season.

He works for us because we have Simmons but he's a PG without traditional PG skills without the size to play anywhere else. He's still a good player but nowhere near what I want for Noel. Noel even with the flaws I constantly harp on is a better player right now and has the potential to get better.

So no I'm not making that deal and no I'm not making the deal if they throw in a protected first either. I don't know why Everytime there are new trade rumors being bandied about our players always lose value. First we declined the bin pick for oak now according to Chad Ford he's not even worth a top ten. Noel went from untouchable, to worth 3rd overall pick plus some fillers, to Avery Bradley all in the span of an off season. He hasn't even played a game this season and his value has already declined to such an extent.

I shudder to think what he will be worth when he you know actually plays and doesn't get a ton of minutes due to Embiid some of you might be ready to move him for Smart.

I think that the only reason that Noel's trade value has dropped is because he showed serious limitations in his second year. He showed that he can't score without being spoon fed, and he can't defend the 4 as well as his athleticism should allow.

He is basically a very low BB IQ player, and that means that he can only be a defensive oriented 5. That is still a good thing, but after his rookie year it looked like he could be more than that.

I agree that Bradley doesn't have point guard skills, but as you said, we don't need that with Simmons on the team. I think he is big enough to guard a lot of shooting guards too.


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I was talking about this offseason.

I also agree with you about Bradley I like his fit next to Simmons but very little teams have a Simmons or Lebron on their roster. Or a Giannis.

Most teams would have to acquire or put a second PG in their lineup to compensate for those lack of skills. Which hurts Bradley value... a lot. I also disagree about him being defend the 2. He's 6-2. Maybe smaller combo SG but he's effectively for all intent and purposes a 1.

I think I've been pretty consistent about what I think Noel value is and/or should be. I want to move him and I'm even willing to accept less then what I would normally if Embiid or Okafor wasn't on the roster but Bradley is so far removed from that I don't even know what to do with that. Noel is still even with the flaws much of what I agree with some of it I don't a much better player then Bradley. I don't really agree with the fact he's low BBIQ. I mean you look at him on defense you don't get those steal numbers without anticipation and understanding defense.

What I would agree with you is the improvement hasn't been there. Particularly physically. Thats on Noel. But I think I also have to give some perspective also. Okafor for me is right up there with Porzingis and a notch below Towns. He's almost untouchable. I mean NY isn't trading Porzingis unless it's Lebron or Durant. Same with Minn. Noel is in the second group of prospects just below for me. Prospects you commonly see moved as centerpieces for top 20 players. Like a Butler for instance was he still available or Middleton not Bradley. I don't think he'll ever be a star but he could be a notch below like Chandler was with the Mavericks.

Okafor personally if he puts it all together and finds out how to use his natural gifts to play decent defense is a top 10 player in this league. We also have him on his rookie deal for three more years. That's really the only reason I want to move Noel. I think one question we need to ask ourselves when looking at these trades is if Embiid and Okafor were not on the roster would we accept a deal of Noel for Bradley? For me the answer is hell no. So it's a bad deal. Of course like I indicated earlier I would be willing to accept less for Noel then otherwise but there has to be a breaking point. At some point you have to be willing to just keep the player if the offers aren't there. I want to move him but Bradley isn't near enough.

[LloydFree]

That's why ceilings don't really mean much to me. It's a way to boost up a players perceived value while having built in caveats.

I'd rather hear what he can realistically become than a bloated, absolute best case scenario. Especially for a guy who has been sitting out for two seasons.

What player is Okafor's ceiling and what player is closest to his most likely outcome?

[rzzzzz]

in his second year...(Noel) showed that he can't score without being spoon fed, and he can't defend the 4 as well as his athleticism should allow.

Hinkie gave Nerlens first crack a playing pf. a number of minutes his rookie season and then the first half of this past season. because he planned on Embiid being our center, and was hoping Nerlens could be just as effective away from the rim. but he struggled. i don't think moving him back to center was all that encouraging for him, 'cause at that point Sam decided to see if Okafor could play pf. Noel and Okafor are both centers, but with Embiid coming back, the guy who learns to play pf is the one we keep.

[spikeslovechild]

in his second year...(Noel) showed that he can't score without being spoon fed, and he can't defend the 4 as well as his athleticism should allow.

Hinkie gave Nerlens first crack a playing pf. a number of minutes his rookie season and then the first half of this past season. because he planned on Embiid being our center, and was hoping Nerlens could be just as effective away from the rim. but he struggled. i don't think moving him back to center was all that encouraging for him, 'cause at that point Sam decided to see if Okafor could play pf. Noel and Okafor are both centers, but with Embiid coming back, the guy who learns to play pf is the one we keep.

Agreed. Which is why I still hold hope for Okafor. He can punish the small PF on the offensive end and has the physical tools at least to be competent defensively.

Now it's upto the coaching staff and him to get it out of him. I'm much more confident then some in this regard. Okafor beyond just talent, 7'6 wingspan, 7'3 standing reach. The things you can't teach. He also seems to be a guy who is willing to grind and put the work in.

Which is why we saw him improve his jumpshot and ft% last year. Two things players who aren't willing to put the work in don't commonly improve. He also improved his nutrition and conditioning towards the end of the season. Brown even talked about it to the media and credited it for his improved defense.

Which is another thing that doesn't really get talked often enough. Simmons is going to get Okafor a ton of easy looks. Improving his conditioning and not having him exert as much effort on the offensive end because he is no longer forced to create for himself is going to help him on his defense and rebounding.

[Ericb5]

No, he WAS as good of a prospect as Hakeem was at the same stage (freshman year of college). Two years of no playing later, we don't know what his new "ceiling" is. Hakeem might not have become the same player if he had to sit out for two years after his freshman season.

Well we are probably talking about the same thing then. I don't think a prospect's ceiling changes. It just becomes more or less likely to be reachable.

His ceiling as a prospect is as high as Hakeem. You have just lost confidence that he can reach it.

That's your choice of course. I personally haven't lost faith at all. If he can stay healthy, he is going to be a monster.

Also, I think that there isn't really any such thing as "lost development time". It is just "delayed development time"

Had he never gotten hurt he would be a better basketball player today for sure, but it doesn't mean that he won't be the same player he was destined to be when he is 25.

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That's why ceilings don't really mean much to me. It's a way to boost up a players perceived value while having built in caveats.

"Embiid's a freak, his ceiling is definitely Olajuwon."

"Well just because his ceiling is Olajuwon, it doesn't mean he will reach it."

I'd rather hear what he can realistically become than a bloated, absolute best case scenario. Especially for a guy who has been sitting out for two seasons.

That's fine. Ceilings are best case scenarios. You take their physical gifts, and their aptitude, and skill levels, and then figure out what the best case scenario is. Since prospects rarely come into the league capable of influencing wins and losses, due to how raw they are, it is a way of projecting to the future.

I don't know if you have ever read he hockey site "hockey's future" before, but they have a cool prospect rating system.

They rate players on talent on a 10 point scale(Connor McDavid is the only 10.0 that I have see ) and then rate them on likelihood of reaching their ceiling with an A through F letter grade.

The riskiest prospects might have an 8.5 talent rating, but a D rating on likelihood of getting there.

For someone like Embiid, he would have a really high talent score, but a C or D rating on his likelihood of attaining it.



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[Ericb5]

That's why ceilings don't really mean much to me. It's a way to boost up a players perceived value while having built in caveats.

I'd rather hear what he can realistically become than a bloated, absolute best case scenario. Especially for a guy who has been sitting out for two seasons.

What player is Okafor's ceiling and what player is closest to his most likely outcome?

For me, I would say that Okafor's ceiling is someone who can score like Melo, but defend like Aldridge, Marc Gasol, or Zach Randolph.

His worst case scenario is Monroe, and his most likely scenario is half way between Monroe and the player I described in his ceiling.


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[Kolkmania]

That's why ceilings don't really mean much to me. It's a way to boost up a players perceived value while having built in caveats.

I'd rather hear what he can realistically become than a bloated, absolute best case scenario. Especially for a guy who has been sitting out for two seasons.

What player is Okafor's ceiling and what player is closest to his most likely outcome?

For me, I would say that Okafor's ceiling is someone who can score like Melo, but defend like Aldridge, Marc Gasol, or Zach Randolph.

His worst case scenario is Monroe, and his most likely scenario is half way between Monroe and the player I described in his ceiling.


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Marc Gasol is an excellent defender, former DPOY.

[lotto29]

That's why ceilings don't really mean much to me. It's a way to boost up a players perceived value while having built in caveats.

I'd rather hear what he can realistically become than a bloated, absolute best case scenario. Especially for a guy who has been sitting out for two seasons.

What player is Okafor's ceiling and what player is closest to his most likely outcome?

For me, I would say that Okafor's ceiling is someone who can score like Melo, but defend like Aldridge, Marc Gasol, or Zach Randolph.

His worst case scenario is Monroe, and his most likely scenario is half way between Monroe and the player I described in his ceiling.


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[Easymoney]

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Is it me or does Jah look a lot taller in this pic? He has to be at least 7ft now.

[mksp]

No I don't. His PER was 13.2 last season.

He works for us because we have Simmons but he's a PG without traditional PG skills without the size to play anywhere else. He's still a good player but nowhere near what I want for Noel. Noel even with the flaws I constantly harp on is a better player right now and has the potential to get better.

So no I'm not making that deal and no I'm not making the deal if they throw in a protected first either. I don't know why Everytime there are new trade rumors being bandied about our players always lose value. First we declined the bin pick for oak now according to Chad Ford he's not even worth a top ten. Noel went from untouchable, to worth 3rd overall pick plus some fillers, to Avery Bradley all in the span of an off season. He hasn't even played a game this season and his value has already declined to such an extent.

I shudder to think what he will be worth when he you know actually plays and doesn't get a ton of minutes due to Embiid some of you might be ready to move him for Smart.

I think that the only reason that Noel's trade value has dropped is because he showed serious limitations in his second year. He showed that he can't score without being spoon fed, and he can't defend the 4 as well as his athleticism should allow.

He is basically a very low BB IQ player, and that means that he can only be a defensive oriented 5. That is still a good thing, but after his rookie year it looked like he could be more than that.

I agree that Bradley doesn't have point guard skills, but as you said, we don't need that with Simmons on the team. I think he is big enough to guard a lot of shooting guards too.


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On what planet is Noel is a low BB IQ player? I honestly don't understand how one can even believe that.

His limitations are his ballhandling and shooting.

Noel's BB IQ is above average for a C. He's a very good passer, he has a feel for running the PnR, and he's an incredible weakside help defender. His defensive instincts are off the chart (and I don't know what category you'd put defensive instincts under, if not "BB IQ").

Bringing it back on topic, Noel's BB IQ is significantly higher than Okafors, who only knows how to play basketball in a very small area, on a single side of the court, and is otherwise a trainwreck.

[Ericb5]

No I don't. His PER was 13.2 last season.

He works for us because we have Simmons but he's a PG without traditional PG skills without the size to play anywhere else. He's still a good player but nowhere near what I want for Noel. Noel even with the flaws I constantly harp on is a better player right now and has the potential to get better.

So no I'm not making that deal and no I'm not making the deal if they throw in a protected first either. I don't know why Everytime there are new trade rumors being bandied about our players always lose value. First we declined the bin pick for oak now according to Chad Ford he's not even worth a top ten. Noel went from untouchable, to worth 3rd overall pick plus some fillers, to Avery Bradley all in the span of an off season. He hasn't even played a game this season and his value has already declined to such an extent.

I shudder to think what he will be worth when he you know actually plays and doesn't get a ton of minutes due to Embiid some of you might be ready to move him for Smart.

I think that the only reason that Noel's trade value has dropped is because he showed serious limitations in his second year. He showed that he can't score without being spoon fed, and he can't defend the 4 as well as his athleticism should allow.

He is basically a very low BB IQ player, and that means that he can only be a defensive oriented 5. That is still a good thing, but after his rookie year it looked like he could be more than that.

I agree that Bradley doesn't have point guard skills, but as you said, we don't need that with Simmons on the team. I think he is big enough to guard a lot of shooting guards too.


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On what planet is Noel is a low BB IQ player? I honestly don't understand how one can even believe that.

His limitations are his ballhandling and shooting.

Noel's BB IQ is above average for a C. He's a very good passer, he has a feel for running the PnR, and he's an incredible weakside help defender. His defensive instincts are off the chart (and I don't know what category you'd put defensive instincts under, if not "BB IQ").

Bringing it back on topic, Noel's BB IQ is significantly higher than Okafors, who only knows how to play basketball in a very small area, on a single side of the court, and is otherwise a trainwreck.

I completely disagree that Noel is a smarter player than Okafor. Noel is completely helpless on offense and defense if he does anything other than just react. When he is thinking, he struggles. Just trying to remind himself to follow the power forward that he is defending, and not run straight to he rim is a struggle.

Sure he knows how to crash to the basket on the pick and roll, but it is only his elite athleticism that makes him succeed in those situations.

His limitations go beyond ball handling and shooting. He is completely incapable of making offensive plays for himself, other than the ability to drive by some defenders using his quickness. All of his scoring moves look like a deer on ice skates.

Hey, you don't HAVE to be a smart player to be an effective one, but you have to have a capacity to learn if you are going to get better. I feel about Noel sort of like I felt about MCW. Neither of them showed improvement between their 1st and 2nd years.

What Noel has going for him though that MCW didn't have is that Noel can play 30 minutes a night as a defensive force in the middle. Because of that, he will have a lot of value around the league.

Okafor improved rapidly through his rookie season, and I predict that he will continue to improve this season. If he falls back and DOESN'T improve this year, then I will agree that his BB IQ isn't all that great.



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[76ciology]

I don't agree that Noel has poor basketball IQ. You have to be able to read the opponent's offense to get that much deflections. It's his poor ball handling and shooting on offense is what he lacks. Which is Ok, as long as he stays in the paint and catch lobs and finish around the rim.

[76ciology]

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Is it me or does Jah look a lot taller in this pic? He has to be at least 7ft now.

My belief is Okafor is undersized for a C. He's 6'9.5" w/o shoes. It's one of the reason Lakers passed up on him because they think he's more of a PF because of his size. Which is a good thing IMO.

[TragicBronson]

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Is it me or does Jah look a lot taller in this pic? He has to be at least 7ft now.

My belief is Okafor is undersized for a C. He's 6'9.5" w/o shoes. It's one of the reason Lakers passed up on him because they think he's more of a PF because of his size. Which is a good thing IMO.

He looks the same height as Bosh who is a legit 6'11.

[Kolkmania]

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Is it me or does Jah look a lot taller in this pic? He has to be at least 7ft now.

My belief is Okafor is undersized for a C. He's 6'9.5" w/o shoes. It's one of the reason Lakers passed up on him because they think he's more of a PF because of his size. Which is a good thing IMO.

He looks the same height as Bosh who is a legit 6'11.

If you draw a straight line it is clear that Bosh is a bit taller, he's a tiny bit longer than Anthony Davis in this picture. But since we can't see their stance it is not worth much.