San Antonio early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon)

[Chinook]

Barely slower, and Pau is a lesser part of the equation against the Spurs. Parker's older and slower. Pau's old and slow still. Lee just stinks at defense, its Kevin Love X 1000. I have every expectation they're a top 3 seed, but they match up really poorly vs. GSW.

I think the key here is the bolded. He's not. He's obviously a huge part of the equation, hence them moving/letting go of rotation players and dropping a fair bit of coin on him. I don't see him getting fewer than 30mpg against them. The Warriors aren't going to go with small-ball against the Gasol/LMA unless Pau loses his ability to score. And if it's going to be a Curry, Klay, Durant, Green, Zaza lineup primarily, the Spurs can handle that. The biggest mismatches are Dray taking LMA off the dribble and Klay posting up Parker, neither of those being what the Warriors want to get out of their offense.

If you're planning on 30 mpg of Pau against Golden State, I don't know what to say.

You could say something like, "Well that's why they are paying him $30 Million over two years." Pop can be wrong of course (and I can obviously be wrong about Pop's mind), but they committed to playing big against the Warriors starting last year, and anyone who's really looking at this knows they got better at doing that this summer.

[bondom34]

I think the key here is the bolded. He's not. He's obviously a huge part of the equation, hence them moving/letting go of rotation players and dropping a fair bit of coin on him. I don't see him getting fewer than 30mpg against them. The Warriors aren't going to go with small-ball against the Gasol/LMA unless Pau loses his ability to score. And if it's going to be a Curry, Klay, Durant, Green, Zaza lineup primarily, the Spurs can handle that. The biggest mismatches are Dray taking LMA off the dribble and Klay posting up Parker, neither of those being what the Warriors want to get out of their offense.

If you're planning on 30 mpg of Pau against Golden State, I don't know what to say.

You could say something like, "Well that's why they are paying him $30 Million over two years." Pop can be wrong of course (and I can obviously be wrong about Pop's mind), but they committed to playing big against the Warriors starting last year, and anyone who's really looking at this knows they got better at doing that this summer.

In that case, they probably shouldn't have gone with one of the worst defensive bigs to pay that money to. He's barely (barely) faster than Tim and not as good defensively. Remember Kevin Love in the finals? Its that but slower.

[Chinook]

If you're planning on 30 mpg of Pau against Golden State, I don't know what to say.

You could say something like, "Well that's why they are paying him $30 Million over two years." Pop can be wrong of course (and I can obviously be wrong about Pop's mind), but they committed to playing big against the Warriors starting last year, and anyone who's really looking at this knows they got better at doing that this summer.

In that case, they probably shouldn't have gone with one of the worst defensive bigs to pay that money to. He's barely (barely) faster than Tim and not as good defensively. Remember Kevin Love in the finals? Its that but slower.

Dude was the ninth-ranked center in DRPM last year, behind Duncan, obviously, but ahead of Zaza, for example. For the first time in years (if ever), he got to play center on a team with a solid defensive system. The year before that, he was playing a lot of hybrid C/PF with broken-down Noah, and the years before that where either playing as a PF with the Lakers or playing at the five but in poor defensive systems. Pau won't be Duncan, but I think he'll be a positive on defense.

Love, to my knowledge, played a fair bit of PF, isn't much of a shot-blocker and is a few inches shorter than Pau. There are some similarities, but there are differences, too.

[bondom34]

Dude was the ninth-ranked center in DRPM last year, behind Duncan, obviously, but ahead of Zaza, for example. For the first time in years (if ever), he got to play center on a team with a solid defensive system. The year before that, he was playing a lot of hybrid C/PF with broken-down Noah, and the years before that where either playing as a PF with the Lakers or playing at the five but in poor defensive systems. Pau won't be Duncan, but I think he'll be a positive on defense.

Love, to my knowledge, played a fair bit of PF, isn't much of a shot-blocker and is a few inches shorter than Pau. There are some similarities, but there are differences, too.

RPM, for all it is good at, really overrates box score defense. Which is why he also rated higher than a ton of guys who legitimately anchored defenses with worse block/steal numbers, and is why a guy like Westbrook still gets rated highly despite being pretty average. He's also a negative in multiyear RAPM (well behind Love)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12rcLDCaJSh_b1hA3UyLG5-neayTBl_weqNVCGM0LheA/edit#gid=0
And slightly better in single year RAPM on defense.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_JkGXDXtu3cSLzplkQo4mDYOMLi-Sh2YfIb9nKeMNZI/edit#gid=0

He's in the 43rd percentile of PnR roll man defenders.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*CHI&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

Slightly ahead of Love at 34th percentile.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*Cle&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

So again, if the plan is to play him 30 minutes, go for it, but they'll likely be running the score up to 140.

[Chinook]

RPM, for all it is good at, really overrates box score defense. Which is why he also rated higher than a ton of guys who legitimately anchored defenses with worse block/steal numbers, and is why a guy like Westbrook still gets rated highly despite being pretty average.

These are the same flaws that plague all advanced defensive stats. I've never looked at the formula for RAPM, but it wouldn't surprise me if you are correct.

He's also a negative in multiyear RAPM (well behind Love)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12rcLDCaJSh_b1hA3UyLG5-neayTBl_weqNVCGM0LheA/edit#gid=0
And slightly better in single year RAPM on defense.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_JkGXDXtu3cSLzplkQo4mDYOMLi-Sh2YfIb9nKeMNZI/edit#gid=0

I have zero idea how spreadsheets jive with ESPN's numbers (which have Pau as a better defender than this for this past season but a below-average one for the two previous), but the it underscores what the Warriors' are losing as much as the Spurs. Duncan was third on his team in DRPM. according to that chart. Bogut was second, and their new second-best player is going to be a bench big playing out of position. That's completely washed out by Manu, looking at that chart. I don't know how much I trust the data, but it doesn't seem like the idea of the Spurs trying to go big seems dumb looking at them.

He's in the 43rd percentile of PnR roll man defenders.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*CHI&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

Slightly ahead of Love at 34th percentile.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*Cle&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

Duncan's 42nd by those same stats.

So again, if the plan is to play him 30 minutes, go for it, but they'll likely be running the score up to 140.

If they didn't do that against Tim, they won't do it against Gasol. And the Spurs will be better able to control the pace with multiple front-court guys and GS' lowered ability to defend the paint.

[bondom34]

RPM, for all it is good at, really overrates box score defense. Which is why he also rated higher than a ton of guys who legitimately anchored defenses with worse block/steal numbers, and is why a guy like Westbrook still gets rated highly despite being pretty average.

These are the same flaws that plague all advanced defensive stats. I've never looked at the formula for RAPM, but it wouldn't surprise me if you are correct.

He's also a negative in multiyear RAPM (well behind Love)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12rcLDCaJSh_b1hA3UyLG5-neayTBl_weqNVCGM0LheA/edit#gid=0
And slightly better in single year RAPM on defense.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_JkGXDXtu3cSLzplkQo4mDYOMLi-Sh2YfIb9nKeMNZI/edit#gid=0

I have zero idea how spreadsheets jive with ESPN's numbers (which have Pau as a better defender than this for this past season but a below-average one for the two previous), but the it underscores what the Warriors' are losing as much as the Spurs. Duncan was third on his team in DRPM. according to that chart. Bogut was second, and their new second-best player is going to be a bench big playing out of position. That's completely washed out by Manu, looking at that chart. I don't know how much I trust the data, but it doesn't seem like the idea of the Spurs trying to go big seems dumb looking at them.

He's in the 43rd percentile of PnR roll man defenders.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*CHI&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

Slightly ahead of Love at 34th percentile.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*Cle&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

Duncan's 42nd by those same stats.

So again, if the plan is to play him 30 minutes, go for it, but they'll likely be running the score up to 140.

If they didn't do that against Tim, they won't do it against Gasol. And the Spurs will be better able to control the pace with multiple front-court guys and GS' lowered ability to defend the paint.

To the RAPM point, I just stated the difference. RPM is RAPM with a box score incorporation. Pau's box score numbers are dragging his RPM up while his RAPM stinks.

By those spreadsheets, Duncan was a massive plus defensively. So not sure what you're saying there.

And those numbers also say Green, Curry, and Thompson were GSWs best 3.

Finally, Duncan was in the 80th percentile defensively.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*sas&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

So, wrong, wrong, wrong and....wrong.

[Chinook]

To the RAPM point, I just stated the difference. RPM is RAPM with a box score incorporation. Pau's box score numbers are dragging his RPM up while his RAPM stinks..

I didn't see the A. But again, without formula(e, now) to check, I'm not too inclined to considering RAPM more representative. It's not a virtue to ignore box-score stats after a certain point. And at least as far as I know, ESPN whipped out RPM in response to RAPM worked, but that's just something I heard in passing.

By those spreadsheets, Duncan was a massive plus defensively. So not sure what you're saying there.

And those numbers also say Green, Curry, and Thompson were GSWs best 3.

Seriously, Bogut was 11th in the league for defensive RAPM and eight for multi-year RAPM. Curry was 60th and 66th. Klay was 69th and 119th. There were numerous Spurs who had better years than either of the Splash Bros based on those stats.

Finally, Duncan was in the 80th percentile defensively.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*sas&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

So, wrong, wrong, wrong and....wrong

I had him on offense for some reason. I have yet to get comfortable with figuring out how to use that site. Obviously, I was wrong there.

[bondom34]

To the RAPM point, I just stated the difference. RPM is RAPM with a box score incorporation. Pau's box score numbers are dragging his RPM up while his RAPM stinks..

I didn't see the A. But again, without formula(e, now) to check, I'm not too inclined to considering RAPM more representative. It's not a virtue to ignore box-score stats after a certain point. And at least as far as I know, ESPN whipped out RPM in response to RAPM worked, but that's just something I heard in passing.

By those spreadsheets, Duncan was a massive plus defensively. So not sure what you're saying there.

And those numbers also say Green, Curry, and Thompson were GSWs best 3.

Seriously, Bogut was 11th in the league for defensive RAPM and eight for multi-year RAPM. Curry was 60th and 66th. Klay was 69th and 119th. There were numerous Spurs who had better years than either of the Splash Bros based on those stats.

Finally, Duncan was in the 80th percentile defensively.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?dir=1&CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*sas&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

So, wrong, wrong, wrong and....wrong

I had him on offense for some reason. I have yet to get comfortable with figuring out how to use that site. Obviously, I was wrong there.

The entire point of RAPM/RPM is to avoid box score stats. ESPN uses RPM because JE (who also runs RAPM) made it for them. Yes, Duncan was a massive plus. Pau was not.

As for RAPM I assumed you meant overall but if you're talking just DRAPM, then yes Bogut was 2nd in DRAPM, he also played about 21 mpg, you've got Pau at 30 while being a sieve defensively. Also, Bogut really doesn't carry much into this discussion.

[Chinook]

The entire point of RAPM/RPM is to avoid box score stats. ESPN uses RPM because JE (who also runs RAPM) made it for them. Yes, Duncan was a massive plus. Pau was not. So unless you cherry pick one single metric Pau was good at, he's not a good defender.

I disagree. The point of these is to try to contextualize basic stats, not to replace them. Again, blind to formulae, but I would assume that RAPM uses box-score stats just like every other advanced stat does. The difference may be that it uses different ratios or maybe more on/off numbers. But that doesn't make it inherently better. Are there studies showing which one tracks better?

As for RAPM I assumed you meant overall but if you're talking just DRAPM, then yes Bogut was 2nd in DRAPM, he also played about 21 mpg, you've got Pau at 30 while being a sieve defensively. Also, Bogut really doesn't carry much into this discussion.

No offense, but we've been talking about defense this whole time. No one in their right minds thinks the Spurs are getting worse on offense by trading Tim for Pau. I can understand making an honest mistake with your filter (hell, I did it with Duncan's PnR defensive stats on NBA.com), but I don't think the indignation is warranted.

As far as losing Bogut is concerned, it's not pertinent to the idea of Tim/Pau defensively. But it is pertinent to the playability of Pau at all. The Warriors just lost one of the very best defensive bigs in the NBA, and that makes their ability to stop Pau and LMA worse. So it's going to be easier to score on them, making the pressure to defend them less than it would be otherwise. Those stats say the Spurs have a lot of pieces available to play great defense still, while the Warriors don't look as great. Therefore, trading a player who was done on both sides of the ball for a glass-cannon seems workable.

[bondom34]

The entire point of RAPM/RPM is to avoid box score stats. ESPN uses RPM because JE (who also runs RAPM) made it for them. Yes, Duncan was a massive plus. Pau was not. So unless you cherry pick one single metric Pau was good at, he's not a good defender.

I disagree. The point of these is to try to contextualize basic stats, not to replace them. Again, blind to formulae, but I would assume that RAPM uses box-score stats just like every other advanced stat does. The difference may be that it uses different ratios or maybe more on/off numbers. But that doesn't make it inherently better. Are the studies showing which one tracks better?

As for RAPM I assumed you meant overall but if you're talking just DRAPM, then yes Bogut was 2nd in DRAPM, he also played about 21 mpg, you've got Pau at 30 while being a sieve defensively. Also, Bogut really doesn't carry much into this discussion.

No offense, but we've been talking about defense this whole time. No one in their right minds thinks the Spurs are getting worse on offense by trading Tim for Pau. I can understand making an honest mistake with your filter (hell, I did it with Duncan's PnR defensive stats on NBA.com), but I don't think the indignation is warranted.

As far as losing Bogut is concerned, it's not pertinent to the idea of Tim/Pau defensively. But it is pertinent to the playability of Pau at all. The Warriors just lost one of the very best defensive bigs in the NBA, and that makes their ability to stop Pau and LMA worse. So it's going to be easier to score on them, making the pressure to defend them less than it would be otherwise. Those stats say the Spurs have a lot of pieces available to play great defense still, while the Warriors don't look as great. Therefore, trading a player who was done on both sides of the ball for a glass-cannon seems workable.

1. No, RAPM uses zero box score stats. None, that's the point.

2. And if we only were talking defense, then yes Bogut was 2nd most important, but he also played way fewer mintues and is not relevant to Pau being a massive downgrade. The Spurs do have a bunch of great defenders, but they just added a crappy one who's not going to be playable vs. GSW. That's not really a controversial stance, its pretty common sense.

[Chinook]

1. No, RAPM uses zero box score stats. None, that's the point.

Again, I know nothing about the formula, but I doubt that's the point. And I still don't know how well it tracks. I don't really see it around anymore. I can concede the point that it's not based on box-score stats, but I've yet to see how that makes it better.

2. And if we only were talking defense,

And we were, unambiguously.

then yes Bogut was 2nd most important, but he also played way fewer mintues

And that only supports the idea that Pau should be playable. It's not like they kept their other bigs, either. If West proved anything, it's that he can't guard centers. Varejao is Varejao, and Javale almost certainly won't see the court.

and is not relevant to Pau being a massive downgrade. The Spurs do have a bunch of great defenders, but they just added a crappy one who's not going to be playable vs. GSW. That's not really a controversial stance, its pretty common sense.

Why is he not going to be playable? Because he can't defend as well as Duncan (according to RAPM)? Duncan wasn't playable against GS because he couldn't score. His defense, for as much hype as fans of other teams are trying to give it, got him benched repeatedly against the Warriors. So this idea that he was a piece to the puzzle to overthrow Golden State is just wrong.

[bondom34]

1. No, RAPM uses zero box score stats. None, that's the point.

Again, I know nothing about the formula, but I doubt that's the point. And I still don't know how well it tracks. I don't really see it around anymore. I can concede the point that it's not based on box-score stats, but I've yet to see how that makes it better.

2. And if we only were talking defense,

And we were, unambiguously.

then yes Bogut was 2nd most important, but he also played way fewer mintues

And that only supports the idea that Pau should be playable. It's not like they kept their other bigs, either. If West proved anything, it's that he can't guard centers. Varejao is Varegjao, and Javale almost certainly won't see the court.

and is not relevant to Pau being a massive downgrade. The Spurs do have a bunch of great defenders, but they just added a crappy one who's not going to be playable vs. GSW. That's not really a controversial stance, its pretty common sense.

Why is he not going to be playable? Because he can't defend as well as Duncan (according to RAPM)? Duncan wasn't playable against GS because he couldn't score. His defense, for as much hype as fans of other teams are trying to give it, got him benched repeatedly against the Warriors. So this idea that he was a piece to the puzzle to overthrow Golden State is just wrong.

RAPM is plus/minus, regularized and adjusted. It accounts for points scored/given up by teams whena playeris on court, adjusted for strength of players on the team and opponent. Here's an explanation:
http://www.gotbuckets.com/what-is-apm/

Its the best defensive measure I know of.

And the idea Pau should be playable makes no sense considering the issue he has will be defense on PnR vs. Curry and eveyrone where he will be roasted.

And Pau won't be playable unless he's scoring 50 a game, because he's giving it up on defense.

Of literally anything you could choose to pick in the review to be against, this is literally the least controversial topic. He's a less athletic slower Kevin Love on defense without the offense.

[Chinook]

RAPM is plus/minus, regularized and adjusted. It accounts for points scored/given up by teams whena playeris on court, adjusted for strength of players on the team and opponent. Here's an explanation:
http://www.gotbuckets.com/what-is-apm/

Its the best defensive measure I know of.

Thanks. I have been reading a bit on it and still don't see its usefulness. I want to see how well it actually tracks. In the very least, it might be the best version of plus-minus out there, but that doesn't make it the best defensive stat.

And the idea Pau should be playable makes no sense considering the issue he has will be defense on PnR vs. Curry and eveyrone where he will be roasted.

This is massively oversimplified. First, it ignores that the Spurs have superior perimeter defenders around him (like easily the best selection in the league, according you RAPM), so even if Pau isn't great, the Warriors would have a tougher time scoring on every one else.
Second, it ignores that the Spurs would probably switch everything, which means Pau wouldn't be responsible for containing the roll-man. It's easy to say that Curry or Durant would just dance on him and shoot, but those aren't exactly ideal attempts, either. Especially for Durant, I think the Spurs would love to force him into isoing instead of being part of the offense.

And even if they are hitting the roll-man, that's Zaza taking semi-contested attempts other the Big Four. Is that REALLY something they want to base their offense on?

And Pau won't be playable unless he's scoring 50 a game, because he's giving it up on defense.

Maybe on a bad team. But that's not a huge concern for the Spurs. Pau forcing GS to play big would be huge in hurting their versatility. He's definitely going to score more than Duncan and probably more than anyone else the Spurs could have brought in this summer.

Of literally anything you could choose to pick in the review to be against, this is literally the least controversial topic. He's a less athletic slower Kevin Love on defense without the offense.

You repeating this over and over again doesn't make it so. Duncan's defense isn't going to missed against Golden State, and his offense certainly won't be. So arguing that swapping out Duncan for Gasol makes them worse against the Warriors is just not true.

[bondom34]

RAPM is plus/minus, regularized and adjusted. It accounts for points scored/given up by teams whena playeris on court, adjusted for strength of players on the team and opponent. Here's an explanation:
http://www.gotbuckets.com/what-is-apm/

Its the best defensive measure I know of.

Thanks. I have been reading a bit on it and still don't see its usefulness. I want to see how well it actually tracks. In the very least, it might be the best version of plus-minus out there, but that doesn't make it the best defensive stat.

And the idea Pau should be playable makes no sense considering the issue he has will be defense on PnR vs. Curry and eveyrone where he will be roasted.

This is massively oversimplified. First, it ignores that the Spurs have superior perimeter defenders around him (like easily the best selection in the league, according you RAPM), so even if Pau isn't great, the Warriors would have a tougher time scoring on every one else.
Second, it ignores that the Spurs would probably switch everything, which means Pau wouldn't be responsible for containing the roll-man. It's easy to say that Curry or Durant would just dance on him and shoot, but those aren't exactly ideal attempts, either. Especially for Durant, I think the Spurs would love to force him into isoing instead of being part of the offense.

And even if they are hitting the roll-man, that's Zaza taking semi-contested attempts other the Big Four. Is that REALLY something they want to base their offense on?

And Pau won't be playable unless he's scoring 50 a game, because he's giving it up on defense.

Maybe on a bad team. But that's not a huge concern for the Spurs. Pau forcing GS to play big would be huge in hurting their versatility. He's definitely going to score more than Duncan and probably more than anyone else the Spurs could have brought in this summer.

Pau had Jimmy Butler as his best perimeter defender. That wasn't the issue, nor was it the issue all his other years when he was bad defensively. His problem is he's slow, poor on PnR coverage, and can't defend.

Its exactly what GSW did vs. Love, and he was totally unplayable. The difference is Pau is older and slower. And RAPM isn't perfect but its a better version than RPM which is literally the same but adds blocks and steals with some height and other adjustments that aren't relevant to actual play.

[Chinook]

Pau had Jimmy Butler as his best perimeter defender. That wasn't the issue, nor was it the issue all his other years when he was bad defensively. His problem is he's slow, poor on PnR coverage, and can't defend.

Jimmy is overrated defensively (99th and 43rd in the league by your favorite stat; and apparently Snell was by far the best defender on the team last year). Having not just Leonard (fourth/second) or Green (seventh/seventh) but both plus multiple other players who can play team defensive is a completely different story.

Its exactly what GSW did vs. Love, and he was totally unplayable. The difference is Pau is older and slower.

I don't think it makes sense to ignore that Cavs really didn't have much use for Love's offense. The Spurs are depending on Pau's, who's a better inside scorer, or at least more diverse. Of course a guy who was mostly just spotting up and wasn't really big wasn't going to be able hang if he also couldn't defend. The Spurs didn't pay Pau that type of money to stretch the floor.

And RAPM isn't perfect but its a better version than RPM which is literally the same but adds blocks and steals with some height and other adjustments that aren't relevant to actual play.

I'm not buying that it's better. It's likely that the reason why RPM adds those things is because RAPM doesn't have anything to say about individual defense. You can literally play only with four great defenders and have a great RAPM even if you're a sieve. By adding stops and forced turnovers, you force a situation where the player has to tangibly contribute to his team's success. It's certainly better from a narrative standpoint. Like, "Pau's team doesn't do all that well defending when he's on the floor, but he blocks shots and rebounds." Because if all you need from him is to block shots and board, then you get a more honest view of his defensive ability.

[HartfordWhalers]

RAPM doesn't have anything to say about individual defense. You can literally play only with four great defenders and have a great RAPM even if you're a sieve. By adding stops and forced turnovers, you force a situation where the player has to tangibly contribute to his team's success. It's certainly better from a narrative standpoint. Like, "Pau's team doesn't do all that well defending when he's on the floor, but he blocks shots and rebounds." Because if all you need from him is to block shots and board, then you get a more honest view of his defensive ability.

If you have a player who plays with 4 great defenders and the result is a team defense worse than when those 4 great defenders play with others, you will have a negative RAPM.

Very roughly put, RAPM solves Team 1 scoring = {O1 + O2 + O3 + O4 + O5 } - {D6 + D7 + D8 + D9 + D10}.

So, if D6-D9 are superb defenders, it can still assign a negative to the last guy so long as it sees those 4 play with enough other people that it knows who the good 4 of the 5 are.

A team's Drating on the other hand suffers from the problem you say, where the worst defender on the best defensive team might have a better rating than an extremely good defender on a bad team.

[wise1-2]

B-
I liked the Gasol signing even if he's not an ideal partner for Aldridge. They're going to be a little soft inside, and will regress defensively IMO, but Gasol is still a solid starter and much better than having a hole at C.

Dedmon is underrated IMO. He's a better fit that Boban, and I think Pop will get a lot out of him. They needed an athletic big man. He showed some potential to hit open jumpers last season which could be very important for his career if he becomes consistent. Also a good roll man. Defensively, he's active, athletic, long and mobile. He still fouls too much and struggles badly guarding post up players, but overall he's good on that end. He's going to be a good back up for them IMO. Great contract too.

[bondom34]

Pau had Jimmy Butler as his best perimeter defender. That wasn't the issue, nor was it the issue all his other years when he was bad defensively. His problem is he's slow, poor on PnR coverage, and can't defend.

Jimmy is overrated defensively (99th and 43rd in the league by your favorite stat; and apparently Snell was by far the best defender on the team last year). Having not just Leonard (fourth/second) or Green (seventh/seventh) but both plus multiple other players who can play team defensive is a completely different story.

Its exactly what GSW did vs. Love, and he was totally unplayable. The difference is Pau is older and slower.

I don't think it makes sense to ignore that Cavs really didn't have much use for Love's offense. The Spurs are depending on Pau's, who's a better inside scorer, or at least more diverse. Of course a guy who was mostly just spotting up and wasn't really big wasn't going to be able hang if he also couldn't defend. The Spurs didn't pay Pau that type of money to stretch the floor.

And RAPM isn't perfect but its a better version than RPM which is literally the same but adds blocks and steals with some height and other adjustments that aren't relevant to actual play.

I'm not buying that it's better. It's likely that the reason why RPM adds those things is because RAPM doesn't have anything to say about individual defense. You can literally play only with four great defenders and have a great RAPM even if you're a sieve. By adding stops and forced turnovers, you force a situation where the player has to tangibly contribute to his team's success. It's certainly better from a narrative standpoint. Like, "Pau's team doesn't do all that well defending when he's on the floor, but he blocks shots and rebounds." Because if all you need from him is to block shots and board, then you get a more honest view of his defensive ability.

Butler was 43rd in multiyear, which is the more reliable metric. Single year is really noisy.

To add, Tony Snell is 20th. So yeah, they've got fine perimeter defenders in Chicago.

Also, if the Spurs are running an offense through Pau, great, but again you'd better run a crazy good offense, because again, he's giving up a ton more defensively. So whatever your excuse, unless he's putting up great scoring numbers he's killing the defense.

And HW covered the last point, RAPM does account for other players and considering its the main component of RPM, this argument doesn't make much sense. You can look at RAPM and blocks/steals separately.

[Chinook]

RAPM doesn't have anything to say about individual defense. You can literally play only with four great defenders and have a great RAPM even if you're a sieve. By adding stops and forced turnovers, you force a situation where the player has to tangibly contribute to his team's success. It's certainly better from a narrative standpoint. Like, "Pau's team doesn't do all that well defending when he's on the floor, but he blocks shots and rebounds." Because if all you need from him is to block shots and board, then you get a more honest view of his defensive ability.

If you have a player who plays with 4 great defenders and the result is a team defense worse than when those 4 great defenders play with others, you will have a negative RAPM.

Very roughly put, RAPM solves Team 1 scoring = {O1 + O2 + O3 + O4 + O5 } - {D6 + D7 + D8 + D9 + D10}.

So, if D6-D9 are superb defenders, it can still assign a negative to the last guy so long as it sees those 4 play with enough other people that it knows who the good 4 of the 5 are.

A team's Drating on the other hand suffers from the problem you say, where the worst defender on the best defensive team might have a better rating than an extremely good defender on a bad team.

Thanks for the explanation.

But that assumes the "others" aren't sieves themselves. I get that practically, players play with everyone eventually, so it would take a very unlikely scenario to generate that result. But that doesn't mean that accounts for defense. As I said, RAPM might be the best type of plus-minus out there, but I don't think that means it's the best way to rate defensive players. There's a reason why people added the box-score stats into RAPM to get RPM, as Bondom said.

[Chinook]

Butler was 43rd in multiyear, which is the more reliable metric. Single year is really noisy.

To add, Tony Snell is 20th. So yeah, they've got fine perimeter defenders in Chicago.

They are fine, hence why Gasol was a good defender when you take into account his blocks, steals and rebounds. I fully expect him to be a better defender in SA unless the Spurs have even worse injury luck.

Also, if the Spurs are running an offense through Pau, great, but again you'd better run a crazy good offense, because again, he's giving up a ton more defensively. So whatever your excuse, unless he's putting up great scoring numbers he's killing the defense.

According to RAMP, which again is not set in stone as the best stat to judge players. Stats like RPM think he'll be fine on defense and won't need to do too much to be a positive. It's one thing to say you like one stat more than any others. It's another to act like no one can argue against that stat.

And HW covered the last point, RAPM does account for other players and considering its the main component of RPM, this argument doesn't make much sense. You can look at RAPM and blocks/steals separately.

Why do you WANT to look at them separately, though? If you're conceding that blocks and steals matter, then it doesn't make sense to have a more limiting stat be the standard-bearer. RPM is a suggestion on how much all those things matter. It could be wrong, but I'm not willing to dismiss it simply because it cares about stats.