Orlando early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Smitty731/HowardMass)

[Texas Chuck]

A 1yr 15 m deal doesn't scream "starting gig" to me especially in a league that 36 yr old Jamal Crawford is getting 14m per.

I won't pretend to know what was or wasn't said to Green. But I do feel confident he doesn't take a one year deal without getting some pretty solid assurances that he will be a major rotation piece at a minimum. He wouldn't want to sign somewhere and play 12-15 mpg killing his market for next summer when he will need to lock up one last long-term deal.

And I shouldn't have to explain to anyone the inherent flaws in trying to base something on an unrelated player's contract. Crawford got offered a significant contract by Philly and the Clippers were forced to pay him much more than they wanted to because they didn't have any way of replacing him if they left.

[HartfordWhalers]

A 1yr 15 m deal doesn't scream "starting gig" to me especially in a league that 36 yr old Jamal Crawford is getting 14m per.

I won't pretend to know what was or wasn't said to Green. But I do feel confident he doesn't take a one year deal without getting some pretty solid assurances that he will be a major rotation piece at a minimum. He wouldn't want to sign somewhere and play 12-15 mpg killing his market for next summer when he will need to lock up one last long-term deal.

And I shouldn't have to explain to anyone the inherent flaws in trying to base something on an unrelated player's contract. Crawford got offered a significant contract by Philly and the Clippers were forced to pay him much more than they wanted to because they didn't have any way of replacing him if they left.

There have been some reports that Crawford's camp fabricated the Philly offer. I have no idea the truth either way, and for the point of your point it doesn't matter much -- if LAC thinks there is a real Philly offer they have to act like there is a real Philly offer. But for assessing what Colangelo is up to it is an important detail.

Anyway, back on topic. I think it should be obvious that Green is supposed to get big minutes. Same with Biyombo. But big minutes doesn't equal a starter necessarily.

[Texas Chuck]

Anyway, back on topic. I think it should be obvious that Green is supposed to get big minutes. Same with Biyombo. But big minutes doesn't equal a starter necessarily.

YeahI I agree it doesn't automatically mean starter either, but if he's playing 25-30 mpg then he's effectively a starter even if he's technically coming off the bench. And saying we gave him $15M to be a fairly insignificant piece is a really odd way to defend one's management. Either they gave him $15M to tide them over until Gordon/Mario are ready for larger roles without blocking them long-term (this to me is more than defensible) or they terribly overpaid an end of the rotation piece. And we have a couple of very vocal Magic fans claiming the latter while still defending the signing. That just doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

[Illmatic12]

Gordon can handle and pass, ibaka can shoot. They bring different skill sets offensively. Gordon should be more of a slasher. I'm not saying Gordon is going to be an elite scorer, but Skiles never gave him adequate opportunities to show what he can and can't do. When Gordon was let loose in summer league, you could see the pull ups, crossovers, step back jumpers, using picks, all that was on display in summer league last year. I know its summer league and people will just dismiss it, but he was also only 19. I advise you to watch the highlights and see what he's one day capable of. He's only 20 years old today. Only 8 months older than Simmons. When Ibaka is at PF and Gordon is being guarded by a SF, he's actually more likely to be nearer to the basket. At PF he usually starts at the perimeter and tries to use his quickness to beat PFs, but in order to do that, he needs to hit some perimeter shots so defenders don't sag off too much. At SF he can punish weaker opponents with his size, athleticism and strength. We'll see what he's capable of, but he claims he feels more comfortable playing SF, and I think he has the tools to be very effective at that position. I think he has a lot of potential in him. When Kawhi was his age the VAST majority did not see him developing into a legit go to scorer. Same for Paul George and Jimmy Butler. Not that I'm saying he'll be as good as those guys offensively, just that they weren't considered good shot creators early in their careers. I'm more confident in his development than ever after the Magic hired Forcier, who was working with Kawhi to help him become the monster that he is today.

Ibaka really just needs to finish plays. He'll get a good amount of open looks from Vucevic's post offense alone, and Payton and Fournier are capable of getting to the paint. Ibaka should be able to post up SFs as well if they switch on him, but other than that I don't think he'll be creating his own shot. Again, as far as offense goes, their issues have always been overblown. They weren't as bad last year as people make them out to be. They won't be good on that end, but as I've proven already, that's not necessary if you have great defense.

I also think Vucevic is going to be better than ever defensively. He has a great defensive coach, a great back up, less pressure with less minutes, a great PF defender alongside him, ect. When he's struggling to stop a LeBron James penetration, Biyombo takes over. So he won't get torched as much as he used to. Still, he wasn't nearly as bad defensively last year as most people like to think. He made solid improvements on that end, and could again next season. I also think he'll be getting closer to 28 mpg.

I watched Gordon in summer league both years and saw a lot of Magic games throughout the season, I've seen him progress. But summer league competition is mostly players who will be playing in Europe or working 9-5 jobs in 5 years. Playing lesser competition is one thing, it's another level when you're facing the best defenders and smartest defensive schemes in the world.

Iirc Gordon was doing a bunch of crazy stuff in his HS mixtapes as well - but it didn't translate to his season as Arizona where he was knocked for looking 'lost' on offense at times (not a 1-to-1 comparison to players like George, Butler, Leonard who had some track record as #1 options on their college teams). You may be underrating how difficult it actually is to be a high-level perimeter player against set, half-court defenses. The timing is different, the way you read the game and speed of decision making is different. Essentially it's a whole different mentality/skillset to develop and like you said yourself - the kid is only 20yo. So whatever longterm upside he may have isn't likely to be realized immediately, right?

Gordon can still have a perfectly good season for a player his age and show improvement, but not necessarily be so good that he really elevates the team's offense (which is what I expect, unless his outside shooting takes a major leap).

Idk.. you're saying the offensive issues last year were overblown, but the Magic's offense isn't guaranteed to be better that what it was last year (#21). After all, they swapped out a player who could create offense for two who cannot. Oladipo had his decision-making issues, but he was one of the few Magic players who could break down a set defense and create something. Without dynamic playmakers/creators, a lineup tends toward lacking offensive rhythm and will be less than the sum of its parts - which we saw last season. I think you'll be unfortunately surprised how often Ibaka ends up in awkward situations where he's forced to create his own shot.

Anyways, I've found the Magic entertaining and watched a lot of games the past two years. So I'm not just speaking as someone who read a few articles or something without watching. No, I actually watched many of those excrutiating games last season where they played hard but blew the game in the last 5 minutes. I saw Vaughn and then Skiles lack of development and how Skiles refused to be creative with lineups, or put Gordon and Hezonja in situations where they could grow. This is my take from watching the team and their recent moves . Orlando's defense should be clearly improved, but I don't believe they solved their offensive issues that led to them to blowing so many of those games. I still see a major weakness there that could keep them out of the playoffs again. But we'll have to wait and see how things go, maybe I'm completely wrong and the Magic take an unexpected leap - that's the fun of watching the games.

I understand its not going to come together all of a sudden. I think he'll slowly start to realise his offensive potential, but he's not going to play the same role as he was last year. Vogel specifically said he will be putting the ball in his hands. I just think he flashed his potential last season, but he didn't get consistent touches. This year he'll get more opportunities to put his full talent on display. If the Magic were a 20 win team, they would've allowed Gordon to showcase his skills more often last year, but they were trying to make the play offs and had other guys who could score and create. With another year of experience, and the addition of Vogel, I think for most fans it'll SEEM like he made a huge jump. In reality the skills were always there, just a little raw. Obviously I'm not saying he's going to be great next year, just that people will be surprised at what he can do. From their he will continue to develop. I do think he'll be able to create and run a pick n roll/pop. Its like how midseason Giannis suddenly doubled his APG. He had the skills from the beginning of the season to do that. He just needed opportunities and to get eased into that role. And no, before people jump in with the criticisms, I'm not saying Gordon will average 7 APG. I also don't think the explosion will be quite as big (again seeing how AG is still very young)

I dont think Gordon will have a huge impact on the offense either. If he can impact the offense as much as Tobias did then he's done very well, because the defense will be much better. Gordon can get a lot of points just off his hustle. I also never claimed we'll be better than last year offensively. I specifically said that I dont think the offense will be much worse if at all. Like I said, I don't think the offense has to be better than last year to make the play offs (see my earlier post a page or two back). Even if they remain the same offensively and dramatically improve their defense to top 5, they'll have themselves a play off team(again, all in my previous posts). I say their offensive issues are being overblown because some people act like the Magic can't make a shot and are just terrible all around offensively, and therefore a bad team. They act like they're so far behind the rest of the league, it won't matter how good they are defensively.

I agree losing victor is going to hurt our offense a because he's a play maker, but I think we'll have better spacing, better offensive rebounding, added roll men, and the faster tempo should help mitigate the effect of that loss. I think Payton will improve as well. He did his best to adjust to skiles, but if Vogel uses him well, he's capable of 13-8 this season. He should have much better spacing with Fournier, ibaka, and Vucevic. We added players that play without the ball, and will now put the ball in his hands more often. That's where he's at his best. I also think late game defense was just as big of a problem as late game offense.

I think my expectations aren't too high. I mean even Smitty predicted them winning 43 games, so I dont think I'm being unreasonable. Maybe a little optimistic, but not unreasonable.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying about Gordon. For people who think all he can do is dunk (which is a false perception that may be out there after the dunk contest), they'll definitely be surprised with some of the flashes he will show. But for me personally, I've seen him for some years now and already know what he can do. He's got the skills, but I can see that it will take him some time to develop smoothness/fluidity while reading the game at a high speed. Putting the ball in his hands doesn't mean he'll automatically be a great decision maker or won't overdo his role (see: Oladipo, Victor). Giannis is a bit more naturally smooth, but yeah I understand what you're getting at with the analogy.

Your position isn't so unreasonable, 43 wins for ORL wouldn't be entirely out of nowhere. It's just my personal hunch that the Magic haven't solved their issues on offense, and may actually be worse there than you're imagining (like, below the acceptable threshold of a playoff team). It'll be a lot of young players trying to develop their games while simultaneously increasing their role/workload. And Frank Vogel isn't known as an offensive guru, nor someone who's managed young teams so he'll have a learning curve himself. Talk of spacing and tempo, and so on sounds good in the offseason, but during the actual season when games are in the balance it's difficult to execute and have a rhythm on offense without consistent talent. They'll continue to have a problem with the offensive droughts, which can lose a lot of games for you down the stretch (and keep in mind that missed shots, especially when playing at a fast pace, puts undue pressure on a team's defense).

The Pacers under Vogel had the same issue - they probably weren't a playoff team last season if not for Paul George being the best player on the floor in so many 4th quarters. I just don't see who that guy will be on Orlando. Out of the ~13 teams competing for a playoff spot, among that group ORL doesn't strike me as one of the favorites. But hey, like I said you never know what will happen with chemistry and injuries etc around the East - so I completely understand and endorse your optimism!

[watpho71]

I gave them a higher off-season grade than Charlotte or Washington because they actually made some significant moves to improve their team, not that they will have more wins at season's end.

It really is the most interesting roster to see what will develop over training camp and into the first week of the season. So much has already been stated by coaches and management about the state of the starting line up and I think their excitement weens into these statements that drizzle out into the media. You can only start five players and it seems seven or eight have been pronounced starters already. Management, take your chill pills. That being said, I can't wait to see this team play. They have the potential to be a playoff team, but I just don't see it playing out that way next season.

I know Gordon is the most beloved player on the team, but I don't see him as a starter for this group. Vucevic says he's the starter, but some say they brought in Biyombo to start. I'm sure during the meetings to sign Jeff Green he must have been promised a starting gig. Nonetheless, I like this team. I am still a believer in this Payton kid, something special about him. Maybe it's that he reminds me of Rod Strickland (RS could finish at the rim though).

My projected starting line up for the Magic (and I'm probably the only one - and that's okay):
Payton, Fournier, Green, Ibaka, Vucevic.

no way Green starts. Gordon starts at SF until he shows that he cant.

ok.

[wise1-2]

I watched Gordon in summer league both years and saw a lot of Magic games throughout the season, I've seen him progress. But summer league competition is mostly players who will be playing in Europe or working 9-5 jobs in 5 years. Playing lesser competition is one thing, it's another level when you're facing the best defenders and smartest defensive schemes in the world.

Iirc Gordon was doing a bunch of crazy stuff in his HS mixtapes as well - but it didn't translate to his season as Arizona where he was knocked for looking 'lost' on offense at times (not a 1-to-1 comparison to players like George, Butler, Leonard who had some track record as #1 options on their college teams). You may be underrating how difficult it actually is to be a high-level perimeter player against set, half-court defenses. The timing is different, the way you read the game and speed of decision making is different. Essentially it's a whole different mentality/skillset to develop and like you said yourself - the kid is only 20yo. So whatever longterm upside he may have isn't likely to be realized immediately, right?

Gordon can still have a perfectly good season for a player his age and show improvement, but not necessarily be so good that he really elevates the team's offense (which is what I expect, unless his outside shooting takes a major leap).

Idk.. you're saying the offensive issues last year were overblown, but the Magic's offense isn't guaranteed to be better that what it was last year (#21). After all, they swapped out a player who could create offense for two who cannot. Oladipo had his decision-making issues, but he was one of the few Magic players who could break down a set defense and create something. Without dynamic playmakers/creators, a lineup tends toward lacking offensive rhythm and will be less than the sum of its parts - which we saw last season. I think you'll be unfortunately surprised how often Ibaka ends up in awkward situations where he's forced to create his own shot.

Anyways, I've found the Magic entertaining and watched a lot of games the past two years. So I'm not just speaking as someone who read a few articles or something without watching. No, I actually watched many of those excrutiating games last season where they played hard but blew the game in the last 5 minutes. I saw Vaughn and then Skiles lack of development and how Skiles refused to be creative with lineups, or put Gordon and Hezonja in situations where they could grow. This is my take from watching the team and their recent moves . Orlando's defense should be clearly improved, but I don't believe they solved their offensive issues that led to them to blowing so many of those games. I still see a major weakness there that could keep them out of the playoffs again. But we'll have to wait and see how things go, maybe I'm completely wrong and the Magic take an unexpected leap - that's the fun of watching the games.

I understand its not going to come together all of a sudden. I think he'll slowly start to realise his offensive potential, but he's not going to play the same role as he was last year. Vogel specifically said he will be putting the ball in his hands. I just think he flashed his potential last season, but he didn't get consistent touches. This year he'll get more opportunities to put his full talent on display. If the Magic were a 20 win team, they would've allowed Gordon to showcase his skills more often last year, but they were trying to make the play offs and had other guys who could score and create. With another year of experience, and the addition of Vogel, I think for most fans it'll SEEM like he made a huge jump. In reality the skills were always there, just a little raw. Obviously I'm not saying he's going to be great next year, just that people will be surprised at what he can do. From their he will continue to develop. I do think he'll be able to create and run a pick n roll/pop. Its like how midseason Giannis suddenly doubled his APG. He had the skills from the beginning of the season to do that. He just needed opportunities and to get eased into that role. And no, before people jump in with the criticisms, I'm not saying Gordon will average 7 APG. I also don't think the explosion will be quite as big (again seeing how AG is still very young)

I dont think Gordon will have a huge impact on the offense either. If he can impact the offense as much as Tobias did then he's done very well, because the defense will be much better. Gordon can get a lot of points just off his hustle. I also never claimed we'll be better than last year offensively. I specifically said that I dont think the offense will be much worse if at all. Like I said, I don't think the offense has to be better than last year to make the play offs (see my earlier post a page or two back). Even if they remain the same offensively and dramatically improve their defense to top 5, they'll have themselves a play off team(again, all in my previous posts). I say their offensive issues are being overblown because some people act like the Magic can't make a shot and are just terrible all around offensively, and therefore a bad team. They act like they're so far behind the rest of the league, it won't matter how good they are defensively.

I agree losing victor is going to hurt our offense a because he's a play maker, but I think we'll have better spacing, better offensive rebounding, added roll men, and the faster tempo should help mitigate the effect of that loss. I think Payton will improve as well. He did his best to adjust to skiles, but if Vogel uses him well, he's capable of 13-8 this season. He should have much better spacing with Fournier, ibaka, and Vucevic. We added players that play without the ball, and will now put the ball in his hands more often. That's where he's at his best. I also think late game defense was just as big of a problem as late game offense.

I think my expectations aren't too high. I mean even Smitty predicted them winning 43 games, so I dont think I'm being unreasonable. Maybe a little optimistic, but not unreasonable.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying about Gordon. For people who think all he can do is dunk (which is a false perception that may be out there after the dunk contest), they'll definitely be surprised with some of the flashes he will show. But for me personally, I've seen him for some years now and already know what he can do. He's got the skills, but I can see that it will take him some time to develop smoothness/fluidity while reading the game at a high speed. Putting the ball in his hands doesn't mean he'll automatically be a great decision maker or won't overdo his role (see: Oladipo, Victor). Giannis is a bit more naturally smooth, but yeah I understand what you're getting at with the analogy.

Your position isn't so unreasonable, 43 wins for ORL wouldn't be entirely out of nowhere. It's just my personal hunch that the Magic haven't solved their issues on offense, and may actually be worse there than you're imagining (like, below the acceptable threshold of a playoff team). It'll be a lot of young players trying to develop their games while simultaneously increasing their role/workload. And Frank Vogel isn't known as an offensive guru, nor someone who's managed young teams so he'll have a learning curve himself. Talk of spacing and tempo, and so on sounds good in the offseason, but during the actual season when games are in the balance it's difficult to execute and have a rhythm on offense without consistent talent. They'll continue to have a problem with the offensive droughts, which can lose a lot of games for you down the stretch (and keep in mind that missed shots, especially when playing at a fast pace, puts undue pressure on a team's defense).

The Pacers under Vogel had the same issue - they probably weren't a playoff team last season if not for Paul George being the best player on the floor in so many 4th quarters. I just don't see who that guy will be on Orlando. Out of the ~13 teams competing for a playoff spot, among that group ORL doesn't strike me as one of the favorites. But hey, like I said you never know what will happen with chemistry and injuries etc around the East - so I completely understand and endorse your optimism!

What is the "acceptable threshold" though? The Hawks had the same ORTG as the Magic this past season. It's not like they had a guy like PG who took over in the 4th either. They've been criticized (and for good reason) of not being able to finish games all that well. As much as I love Millsap, he still wasn't very dependable as a go to scorer in late game situations. They usually shared that burden amongst the team, and it wasn't very successful. Despite all that, they won 48 games.

[wise1-2]

Anyway, back on topic. I think it should be obvious that Green is supposed to get big minutes. Same with Biyombo. But big minutes doesn't equal a starter necessarily.

YeahI I agree it doesn't automatically mean starter either, but if he's playing 25-30 mpg then he's effectively a starter even if he's technically coming off the bench. And saying we gave him $15M to be a fairly insignificant piece is a really odd way to defend one's management. Either they gave him $15M to tide them over until Gordon/Mario are ready for larger roles without blocking them long-term (this to me is more than defensible) or they terribly overpaid an end of the rotation piece. And we have a couple of very vocal Magic fans claiming the latter while still defending the signing. That just doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

They needed depth at SF, so what other options would've been better? I'd rather overpay a guy for a year than have a very weak back up. This contract doesn't hurt them long term, and it's possibly very useful if they're making a mid season trade (which is very likely). I dont think its fair to assume they made any promises in terms of playing time. All they owe him is the 15 mill they overpaid for him. I'm not sure how many minutes he'll play, but I doubt he gets 30 mpg. There's too much depth in the front court.

[Illmatic12]

What is the "acceptable threshold" though? The Hawks had the same ORTG as the Magic this past season. It's not like they had a guy like PG who took over in the 4th either. They've been criticized (and for good reason) of not being able to finish games all that well. As much as I love Millsap, he still wasn't very dependable as a go to scorer in late game situations. They usually shared that burden amongst the team, and it wasn't very successful. Despite all that, they won 48 games.

When have the Hawks been criticized for not being able to finish games? Maybe against the Cavs/Lebron in the playoffs, but that doesn't define everything they've done. Since Budenholzer took over there, Atlanta has been known for their execution and high IQ play.

Atlanta had two multiple All-Stars - Millsap averaged 19/10 per 36 on 56 TS%. Horford was 17/8 on 57 TS%. Between those two, their scoring efficiency outpaced any Magic player. It's not a 1-to-1 comparison because Orlando doesn't have that same type of veteran team with All-Star two way talent. The closest is Fournier (who still may have some potential to unlock) and Vucevic (who likely is what he is at this point - a middling efficiency volume scorer). I mean, this is a quote from Vogel himself

"We might have to win games 68-65," Vogel said, laughing.

no one ever said that about Atlanta's roster. Put it this way - I'd be fairly surprised if the Magic are able to equal, much less surpass their ORTG from last season.

Don't have the numbers in front of me, but from my observation I'd wager the Magic were one of the leading NBA teams in lost 4th q leads, or greatest efficiency drop off from the 1st 3 quarters to the 4th quarter. Those splits are probably out there somewhere. Their ability to execute in the half court, especially in key moments, was disproportionately worse than other teams. Do you disagree?

To you ,or any other Magic fan ..am I lying about the Magic's struggles to execute down the stretch? What specific changes have they made this offseason that will change this trend? If you can convince me, then I"ll be convinced of them making a leap into the East top 8. As of now, I see a scrappy defensive team that will lose more close games than they should (due to a lack of offensive execution).

[Audi]

I think it's fair to say Orlando will still struggle a bit this year, finding their chemistry, growing, etc. This doesn't mean the offseason was a bust though. I'll miss Oladipo and I think he will be great starter in the league. As a Magic fan, I don't think it's necessary to downplay his game. I have a hunch we are going to regret losing him a few years from now, even though we won't regret the trade itself (as it was necessary). I really think he needs to get more calls in his favor and he will grow out of his issues driving/finishing and elevate his game. Being next to a guy like Westbrook should help. Orlando seems to historically struggle to get the whistle, and it was apparent in Dipo's era with his declining drive attempts and forcing bad shots on the drive in an attempt to avoid contact that wouldn't have been called anyway. It's a bad habit, but correctable in the right circumstances.

As for the doubts surrounding Payton, I really think he will flourish under Vogel. I think his introverted and quiet personality hides a fire that is fueled by positive reinforcement type coaching. Skiles was the exact opposite of that and I think issues between the two of them are greatly underestimated as a hampering of his development last season. Despite having a coach that pretty much singled him out and seemed to dislike him from the get-go, he still showed improvement. That's why a guy like Vogel at the helm is incredibly encouraging to me.

[Texas Chuck]

I think it's fair to say Orlando will still struggle a bit this year, finding their chemistry, growing, etc. This doesn't mean the offseason was a bust though. I'll miss Oladipo and I think he will be great starter in the league. As a Magic fan, I don't think it's necessary to downplay his game. I have a hunch we are going to regret losing him a few years from now, even though we won't regret the trade itself (as it was necessary). I really think he needs to get more calls in his favor and he will grow out of his issues driving/finishing and elevate his game. Being next to a guy like Westbrook should help. Orlando seems to historically struggle to get the whistle, and it was apparent in Dipo's era with his declining drive attempts and forcing bad shots on the drive in an attempt to avoid contact that wouldn't have been called anyway. It's a bad habit, but correctable in the right circumstances.

As for the doubts surrounding Payton, I really think he will flourish under Vogel. I think his introverted and quiet personality hides a fire that is fueled by positive reinforcement type coaching. Skiles was the exact opposite of that and I think issues between the two of them are greatly underestimated as a hampering of his development last season. Despite having a coach that pretty much singled him out and seemed to dislike him from the get-go, he still showed improvement. That's why a guy like Vogel at the helm is incredibly encouraging to me.

If you are going to be this reasonable, please please please post here more.

[Statlanta]

Anyway, back on topic. I think it should be obvious that Green is supposed to get big minutes. Same with Biyombo. But big minutes doesn't equal a starter necessarily.

YeahI I agree it doesn't automatically mean starter either, but if he's playing 25-30 mpg then he's effectively a starter even if he's technically coming off the bench. And saying we gave him $15M to be a fairly insignificant piece is a really odd way to defend one's management. Either they gave him $15M to tide them over until Gordon/Mario are ready for larger roles without blocking them long-term (this to me is more than defensible) or they terribly overpaid an end of the rotation piece. And we have a couple of very vocal Magic fans claiming the latter while still defending the signing. That just doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

I can see your logic here but in this rising cap environment I think some of those defenses are probably justified.

Ian Mahimi, Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner are some of the names making more money than Jeff Green as a backup. I mean as a SF when Parsons, Batum, and Barnes are asking for max contracts is it really that horrible of a contract? Deng and Bazemore still got more money and Marvin Williams was in the ball park so paired against the market I don't think it is as bad as stated.

[wise1-2]

What is the "acceptable threshold" though? The Hawks had the same ORTG as the Magic this past season. It's not like they had a guy like PG who took over in the 4th either. They've been criticized (and for good reason) of not being able to finish games all that well. As much as I love Millsap, he still wasn't very dependable as a go to scorer in late game situations. They usually shared that burden amongst the team, and it wasn't very successful. Despite all that, they won 48 games.

When have the Hawks been criticized for not being able to finish games? Maybe against the Cavs/Lebron in the playoffs, but that doesn't define everything they've done. Since Budenholzer took over there, Atlanta has been known for their execution and high IQ play.

Atlanta had two multiple All-Stars - Millsap averaged 19/10 per 36 on 56 TS%. Horford was 17/8 on 57 TS%. Between those two, their scoring efficiency outpaced any Magic player. It's not a 1-to-1 comparison because Orlando doesn't have that same type of veteran team with All-Star two way talent. The closest is Fournier (who still may have some potential to unlock) and Vucevic (who likely is what he is at this point - a middling efficiency volume scorer). I mean, this is a quote from Vogel himself

"We might have to win games 68-65," Vogel said, laughing.

no one ever said that about Atlanta's roster. Put it this way - I'd be fairly surprised if the Magic are able to equal, much less surpass their ORTG from last season.

Don't have the numbers in front of me, but from my observation I'd wager the Magic were one of the leading NBA teams in lost 4th q leads, or greatest efficiency drop off from the 1st 3 quarters to the 4th quarter. Those splits are probably out there somewhere. Their ability to execute in the half court, especially in key moments, was disproportionately worse than other teams. Do you disagree?

To you ,or any other Magic fan ..am I lying about the Magic's struggles to execute down the stretch? What specific changes have they made this offseason that will change this trend? If you can convince me, then I"ll be convinced of them making a leap into the East top 8. As of now, I see a scrappy defensive team that will lose more close games than they should (due to a lack of offensive execution).

Although the Hawks are not built to get the basketball to one player with the game on the line, Paul Millsap thinks it might be something to look at in the offseason. The Hawks has several failures late in games that cost the team victories this season.

“A little bit but our team has never been that way,” Millsap said last week during his exit interview on whether he felt pressure to be a go-to player after signing a big contract. “We never relied on one guy to pretty much carry the load or go get a big bucket at a crucial time. It’s always been spread out whether it’s been myself or Jeff (Teague) or Al (Horford) or Kyle (Korver). It’s always been to the guy with the hot hand. Maybe, it’s something we look at. I know we need to get better in those situations, individually, because we lost a lot of games coming down the stretch and it’s big for us.”

http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/basketball/millsap-hawks-need-to-get-better-in-late-game-situ/nrNSg/

The hawks really did struggle though, and it wasn't just in the post-season at all. They tried to push Millsap to be that guy and he couldn't deliver. Yes they have all stars, but they aren't great go to scorers. Vucevic and Fournier aren't bad themselves. They both had some great isolation play game winners this past season, and Vucevic's efficiency will possibly rise now that he has better spacing and more depth behind him. Skiles' midrange madness is gone. Hopefully he gets more shots in the paint with some better floor spacers on the court and less pick n pop action. Volume scorer to me mainly means he doesn't get to the FT line, and that's a problem Horford shares as well. And its not really a 1 to 1 comparison because I never projected the Magic to win 48. I said 43 wins, which is a significant difference. As far as having IQ and execution far greater than the Magic's, then why is it their offense was similarly inefficient throughout the season? Obviously the older team has the upper hand in that regard, and are expected to execute better, but I also expect the Magic's young players to improve in that regard. Especially late in games. For all their struggles last year, the Magic still won 35 games (could've easily added 2-3 wins), but I agree they lost a lot of close ones. Not unusual at all for a young team. Another year of experience helps a lot. You could see their significant improvement last year from 2014.

And what Vogel said is obviously hyperbole. What he means is the offense isn't going to be very good (which I agreed with and projected them to be around 22nd in ORTG). I mean do you really think they'll average 68 PPG? Even the 10 win sixers averaged like 97-98 PPG. No, the Magic haven't solved all their offensive problems, that I why they won't be a 48-50 win team IMO. They are going to struggle to score at times, but not enough to keep them out of the play offs IMO. Again, all they need to do is match last years' production, and let their defense carry them to the play offs similar to the Hawks and Pacers last year. Its completely possible they do that and still don't make the play offs, but I think they'll at least be close to 0.500.

[wise1-2]

Anyway, back on topic. I think it should be obvious that Green is supposed to get big minutes. Same with Biyombo. But big minutes doesn't equal a starter necessarily.

YeahI I agree it doesn't automatically mean starter either, but if he's playing 25-30 mpg then he's effectively a starter even if he's technically coming off the bench. And saying we gave him $15M to be a fairly insignificant piece is a really odd way to defend one's management. Either they gave him $15M to tide them over until Gordon/Mario are ready for larger roles without blocking them long-term (this to me is more than defensible) or they terribly overpaid an end of the rotation piece. And we have a couple of very vocal Magic fans claiming the latter while still defending the signing. That just doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

I can see your logic here but in this rising cap environment I think some of those defenses are probably justified.

Ian Mahimi, Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner are some of the names making more money than Jeff Green as a backup. I mean as a SF when Parsons, Batum, and Barnes are asking for max contracts is it really that horrible of a contract? Deng and Bazemore still got more money and Marvin Williams was in the ball park so paired against the market I don't think it is as bad as stated.

Its not even comparable to these guys anyway because it was just a one year deal. I'd rather have Green on a one year deal over any of those multi year contract. They currently have cap space for a max contract next offseason.

[j-ragg]

I think Orlando makes a front court trade sooner than later. Too many guys will be expecting minutes.

[Cosmic_Backlash]

I think it's a mistake to think that the magic relied on Oladipo offensively last year.

He had a 48% eFG, 53% TS. Good for about 9th on the team in efficiency. I think moving his shots to more efficient players like Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc, and Gordon will yield superior results. It's entirely plausible that our offense was average last year because large amounts of it were run through Oladipo - a relatively high usage, but below average efficiency player.

The Magic's most played lineup last year was Payton, Fournier, Harris, Frye, Vuc and had a +7.0 net rating. They played over 330 minutes together, this was when they had their hot start to the year. Magic essentially are swapping out Harris and Frye for Gordon and Ibaka going into this season. I fully expect that lineup to have very good spacing (Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc), good penetrators (Gordon, Payton). Now they have some elite defensive players thrown in the mix as well.

Oladipo is fine as a middling offensive player, but he had some serious negative synergy offensively with the team. In particular, Payton and Oladipo could not play together very well.

I think it's funny the wider perception is that this magic iteration is a bunch of random players thrown together when reality points to the last iteration being dysfunctional.

[Colbinii]

I think it's a mistake to think that the magic relied on Oladipo offensively last year.

He had a 48% eFG, 53% TS. Good for about 9th on the team in efficiency. I think moving his shots to more efficient players like Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc, and Gordon will yield superior results. It's entirely plausible that our offense was average last year because large amounts of it were run through Oladipo - a relatively high usage, but below average efficiency player.

The Magic's most played lineup last year was Payton, Fournier, Harris, Frye, Vuc and had a +7.0 net rating. They played over 330 minutes together, this was when they had their hot start to the year. Magic essentially are swapping out Harris and Frye for Gordon and Ibaka going into this season. I fully expect that lineup to have very good spacing (Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc), good penetrators (Gordon, Payton). Now they have some elite defensive players thrown in the mix as well.

Oladipo is fine as a middling offensive player, but he had some serious negative synergy offensively with the team. In particular, Payton and Oladipo could not play together very well.

I think it's funny the wider perception is that this magic iteration is a bunch of random players thrown together when reality points to the last iteration being dysfunctional.

The Magic had a 106.7 oRTG with Oladipo in, and a dreadful 102.9 oRTG with him on the bench.
Oladipo had the 2nd highest oRTG +/- other than Frye, a player who seemed to fit great on the team that lacked shooting.
Elfrid Payton had a negative +/- oRTg, the only starter to do so.

[Cosmic_Backlash]

I think it's a mistake to think that the magic relied on Oladipo offensively last year.

He had a 48% eFG, 53% TS. Good for about 9th on the team in efficiency. I think moving his shots to more efficient players like Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc, and Gordon will yield superior results. It's entirely plausible that our offense was average last year because large amounts of it were run through Oladipo - a relatively high usage, but below average efficiency player.

The Magic's most played lineup last year was Payton, Fournier, Harris, Frye, Vuc and had a +7.0 net rating. They played over 330 minutes together, this was when they had their hot start to the year. Magic essentially are swapping out Harris and Frye for Gordon and Ibaka going into this season. I fully expect that lineup to have very good spacing (Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc), good penetrators (Gordon, Payton). Now they have some elite defensive players thrown in the mix as well.

Oladipo is fine as a middling offensive player, but he had some serious negative synergy offensively with the team. In particular, Payton and Oladipo could not play together very well.

I think it's funny the wider perception is that this magic iteration is a bunch of random players thrown together when reality points to the last iteration being dysfunctional.

The Magic had a 106.7 oRTG with Oladipo in, and a dreadful 102.9 oRTG with him on the bench.
Oladipo had the 2nd highest oRTG +/- other than Frye, a player who seemed to fit great on the team that lacked shooting.
Elfrid Payton had a negative +/- oRTg, the only starter to do so.

I mean if we're looking at o-ratings as the source of truth, Gordon had a 114, Ibaka a 108, and Fournier is sliding to his natural position from SF to SG with a 111.

Your comment about o-rating doesn't refute anything - it's just throwing out another fact. Everything I said before is true. Oladipo is an above average usage player with slightly below average results. The fact still is the most successful team composition the magic had all year was one without Oladipo.

I'm just pointing counter argument to "the magic relied on Oladipo as a crutch in their offense last year" I keep appearing here. He might have been? but I'm just trying to present the other side that there is in fact evidence he was holding the team back in some ways too.

[HartfordWhalers]

I think it's a mistake to think that the magic relied on Oladipo offensively last year.

He had a 48% eFG, 53% TS. Good for about 9th on the team in efficiency. I think moving his shots to more efficient players like Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc, and Gordon will yield superior results. It's entirely plausible that our offense was average last year because large amounts of it were run through Oladipo - a relatively high usage, but below average efficiency player.

The Magic's most played lineup last year was Payton, Fournier, Harris, Frye, Vuc and had a +7.0 net rating. They played over 330 minutes together, this was when they had their hot start to the year. Magic essentially are swapping out Harris and Frye for Gordon and Ibaka going into this season. I fully expect that lineup to have very good spacing (Fournier, Ibaka, Vuc), good penetrators (Gordon, Payton). Now they have some elite defensive players thrown in the mix as well.

Oladipo is fine as a middling offensive player, but he had some serious negative synergy offensively with the team. In particular, Payton and Oladipo could not play together very well.

I think it's funny the wider perception is that this magic iteration is a bunch of random players thrown together when reality points to the last iteration being dysfunctional.

The Magic had a 106.7 oRTG with Oladipo in, and a dreadful 102.9 oRTG with him on the bench.
Oladipo had the 2nd highest oRTG +/- other than Frye, a player who seemed to fit great on the team that lacked shooting.
Elfrid Payton had a negative +/- oRTg, the only starter to do so.

I mean if we're looking at o-ratings as the source of truth, Gordon had a 114, Ibaka a 108, and Fournier is sliding to his natural position from SF to SG with a 111.

Your comment about o-rating doesn't refute anything - it's just throwing out another fact. Everything I said before is true. Oladipo is an above average usage player with slightly below average results. The fact still is the most successful team composition the magic had all year was one without Oladipo.

I'm just pointing counter argument to "the magic relied on Oladipo as a crutch in their offense last year" I keep appearing here. He might have been? but I'm just trying to present the other side that there is in fact evidence he was holding the team back in some ways too.

If the most effective rotation the Magic had all year was one in which they had 2 players they basically gave away for free, you really have to ask a few questions.

[Cosmic_Backlash]

The Magic had a 106.7 oRTG with Oladipo in, and a dreadful 102.9 oRTG with him on the bench.
Oladipo had the 2nd highest oRTG +/- other than Frye, a player who seemed to fit great on the team that lacked shooting.
Elfrid Payton had a negative +/- oRTg, the only starter to do so.

I mean if we're looking at o-ratings as the source of truth, Gordon had a 114, Ibaka a 108, and Fournier is sliding to his natural position from SF to SG with a 111.

Your comment about o-rating doesn't refute anything - it's just throwing out another fact. Everything I said before is true. Oladipo is an above average usage player with slightly below average results. The fact still is the most successful team composition the magic had all year was one without Oladipo.

I'm just pointing counter argument to "the magic relied on Oladipo as a crutch in their offense last year" I keep appearing here. He might have been? but I'm just trying to present the other side that there is in fact evidence he was holding the team back in some ways too.

If the most effective rotation the Magic had all year was one in which they had 2 players they basically gave away for free, you really have to ask a few questions.

My question is why is the world chastising the Magic's moves? They literally identified this was their most efficient lineup and supercharged it by replacing Frye with Ibaka and Harris with Gordon. Now everyone says they will at best have the same results as last year.

I can't tell you why they dumped Frye initially, it was probably a mistake. They traded Harris afterwards when they quickly realized he was entirely a failure as a combo forward and he can only play SF. I don't mind the trades they made though. Harris was a minutes roadblock for Gordon and the Magic valued FA flexability. They still value FA flexability by going over several 1 year deals (Green, Meeks). Again, I can't tell you why Hennigan more than others values this flexability, but I can see the end goal.

[HartfordWhalers]

I mean if we're looking at o-ratings as the source of truth, Gordon had a 114, Ibaka a 108, and Fournier is sliding to his natural position from SF to SG with a 111.

Your comment about o-rating doesn't refute anything - it's just throwing out another fact. Everything I said before is true. Oladipo is an above average usage player with slightly below average results. The fact still is the most successful team composition the magic had all year was one without Oladipo.

I'm just pointing counter argument to "the magic relied on Oladipo as a crutch in their offense last year" I keep appearing here. He might have been? but I'm just trying to present the other side that there is in fact evidence he was holding the team back in some ways too.

If the most effective rotation the Magic had all year was one in which they had 2 players they basically gave away for free, you really have to ask a few questions.

My question is why is the world chastising the Magic's moves? They literally identified this was their most efficient lineup and supercharged it by replacing Frye with Ibaka and Harris with Gordon. Now everyone says they will at best have the same results as last year.

I can't tell you why they dumped Frye initially, it was probably a mistake. They traded Harris afterwards when they quickly realized he was entirely a failure as a combo forward and he can only play SF. I don't mind the trades they made though. Harris was a minutes roadblock for Gordon and the Magic valued FA flexability. They still value FA flexability by going over several 1 year deals (Green, Meeks). Again, I can't tell you why Hennigan more than others values this flexability, but I can see the end goal.

I think if people really thought the Magic offseason moves were because they looked at the small sample stats of that 5 man unit and said lets replicate it people would be going all in a lot more on chastising the Magic.

334 minutes isn't much of a sample and any size data like that is prone to some serious small sample fluctuations.

For instance, you had the team shoot 42.2% from 3 during that sample -- better than the best shooter on the team shot on the season. So, does that 5 man lineup magically shoot better than the best guy on it, or is it just the statistical noise that you should expect in something that size? I know one of the two seems a lot more plausible than the other to me, but maybe it is just such a special combination of players that it could allow Payton to be a 61.5% 3 point shooter.

For years there have been some Sac fans pointing out how great one single 5 man combo they had was. However, when Carl Landry was substituted out from that exact 5 man lineup the stats fell entirely apart, and the remaining 4 players weren't even good together. So, obviously Carl Landry was needed for their underlying greatness.

Just like there, I guess it really comes down to how much you trust that small sample, and whether it makes any sense to view it as more than noise.