San Antonio early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon)

[rosenthall]

As a Bulls fun, my opinion of Pau after watching him for two years is that he's a very productive player, but one that raises your floor and lowers your ceiling.

He hurts you on defense because he has to play C and is not very mobile, so whenever you have him on the floor you'll have weaknesses that can easily be exploited by a good PG. Teams regularly target him in the pick n' roll, and while he can protect the rim if he's under the basket, he doesn't cover ground very well at all so if you put him in a position where he has to move he's easily exposed. Teams do this all the time.

On offense he's very skilled and his game is virtually timeless due to his skill and length but he doesn't draw double teams much anymore and requires a decent amount of usage to play his game. He seems to like shooting 20 footers and doing pin downs close to the basket where uses up lots of shot-clock to get off fairly low percentage shots. He's productive when he's allowed to play in his sandbox but committing to Pau as a cog kind of limits you to a hokey-poke offense that's slower paced that does a lot of things which stopped being popular in the 90's.

He's still a very valuable player and good for wins but somewhat hard to build around since his flaws create serious weaknesses against the best teams.

[shangrila]

I agree that they should have skipped on Pau. His offensive value won't offset the defensive issues, so I don't get how it helps them beat GS. But then maybe they don't care about that?

It's weird to say I know, but after watching them in the playoffs last season I'm not sure what else to think. Their Leonard and Aldridge ISO heavy offence was terrible and I don't get why Pop either implemented it or let it continue.

[Rerisen]

Bulls fans covered Pau well in the previous posts, I would also add though, don't be fooled by his career high rebounds. They came via simply standing under the rim all game, mostly hogging all the uncontested boards. His contested rebound % is terrible for a rebounder of his volume. The Bulls total rebound % was better with him on the bench for 2 straight years.

[Chinook]

I agree that they should have skipped on Pau. His offensive value won't offset the defensive issues, so I don't get how it helps them beat GS. But then maybe they don't care about that?

It's weird to say I know, but after watching them in the playoffs last season I'm not sure what else to think. Their Leonard and Aldridge ISO heavy offence was terrible and I don't get why Pop either implemented it or let it continue.

I don't like their offense, either, but it wasn't terrible for most of the season. The main issue is that the team didn't really have anywhere to go after both Kawhi and LMA went cold. Green had a couple of good games, but you'd rather him be a fourth scorer rather than a third. Gasol might clog up the paint, but having a bona-fide scoring option on offense was critical to the team's ability play at a slower pace.

I personally wanted them to keep Boban and West and try for a guard to replace Manu. But obviously, Manu came back and the other two walked, so the priorities changed. There just isn't room for a guard with Manu back. But they have the best offensive front court in the game now, and no one can match up to that. And by many measures, they have the best set of perimeter defenders in the league, so they can match up well with other teams.

The plan seems to be for the Spurs to use their defense to hold GS' perimeter guys down a bit while letting their bigs run wild. It's essentially the Game Two plan but with Gasol and Lee rather than Diaw and West. To that end, I'd like to see them upgrade from Mills to a better defensive PG. Beverly or Bradley is ideal but not on the market. I don't know if such a player is available, but that would help more than anything else people are mentioning.

[Gus Fring]

People should stop basing the spurs offseason on what the Warriors did or what it means in their matchup. There is nothing the Spurs could've done this offseason that would of made long term and short term sense that would lead to them matching up better against the warriors. All the spurs did was begin the process of a soft rebuild while still maintaining their status as one of the best teams in the league, and they did it without tying up alot of long term cap space, losing any future assets, or giving out any clearly dumb contracts.

[HartfordWhalers]

People should stop basing the spurs offseason on what the Warriors did or what it means in their matchup. There is nothing the Spurs could've done this offseason that would of made long term and short term sense that would lead to them matching up better against the warriors. All the spurs did was begin the process of a soft rebuild while still maintaining their status as one of the best teams in the league, and they did it without tying up alot of long term cap space, losing any future assets, or giving out any clearly dumb contracts.

Pau having a player option for next year really hurts the soft rebuild for me.

[Gus Fring]

People should stop basing the spurs offseason on what the Warriors did or what it means in their matchup. There is nothing the Spurs could've done this offseason that would of made long term and short term sense that would lead to them matching up better against the warriors. All the spurs did was begin the process of a soft rebuild while still maintaining their status as one of the best teams in the league, and they did it without tying up alot of long term cap space, losing any future assets, or giving out any clearly dumb contracts.

Pau having a player option for next year really hurts the soft rebuild for me.

How? If he opts out the spurs will have 30 mil in space next year. If he ops in and they don't want him he's on a very good deal that can be easily traded. If he is pretty good and the spurs want to keep him, then you have a good center in a contract year on a league average salary. Whats not to like? He isn't blocking the spurs from getting any players they may want nor is taking up a lot of cap space.

[HartfordWhalers]

People should stop basing the spurs offseason on what the Warriors did or what it means in their matchup. There is nothing the Spurs could've done this offseason that would of made long term and short term sense that would lead to them matching up better against the warriors. All the spurs did was begin the process of a soft rebuild while still maintaining their status as one of the best teams in the league, and they did it without tying up alot of long term cap space, losing any future assets, or giving out any clearly dumb contracts.

Pau having a player option for next year really hurts the soft rebuild for me.

How? If he opts out the spurs will have 30 mil in space next year. If he ops in and they don't want him he's on a very good deal that can be easily traded. If he is pretty good and the spurs want to keep him, then you have a good center in a contract year on a league average salary. Whats not to like? He isn't blocking the spurs from getting any players they may want nor is taking up a lot of cap space.

Not really sure how you can reconcile Pau opting in and with the contract he opts into a very good deal.

If he opts in, it is because he cannot get that much money when the cap is jumping and team's have a lot of money. If he opts in, it is implicitly clear that he is not on a good deal.

And 16.2m is a lot of cap space.

[Gus Fring]

Pau having a player option for next year really hurts the soft rebuild for me.

How? If he opts out the spurs will have 30 mil in space next year. If he ops in and they don't want him he's on a very good deal that can be easily traded. If he is pretty good and the spurs want to keep him, then you have a good center in a contract year on a league average salary. Whats not to like? He isn't blocking the spurs from getting any players they may want nor is taking up a lot of cap space.

Not really sure how you can reconcile Pau opting in and with the contract he opts into a very good deal.

If he opts in, it is because he cannot get that much money when the cap is jumping and team's have a lot of money. If he opts in, it is implicitly clear that he is not on a good deal.

And 15m is a lot of cap space.

Is not that much cap space considering what other players have gotten this year. 15 mil a year is about average starter money. Pau is worth average starter money, especially considering what guys like Biyombo, Mahimni, and Mozgov got.

It's a good contract as in it's easily tradable. It's an expiring deal worth 15 mil. So lets say a team like the Nuggets have a bunch of unused cap space, the spurs could trade Pau into that space with an asset. It's a good deal for the Nuggets because they get an asset for a contract that won't be on the books at the end of the year. It's a good deal for the spurs because they got rid of a player they didn't want and they open up cap space for potential free agents.

[HartfordWhalers]

How? If he opts out the spurs will have 30 mil in space next year. If he ops in and they don't want him he's on a very good deal that can be easily traded. If he is pretty good and the spurs want to keep him, then you have a good center in a contract year on a league average salary. Whats not to like? He isn't blocking the spurs from getting any players they may want nor is taking up a lot of cap space.

Not really sure how you can reconcile Pau opting in and with the contract he opts into a very good deal.

If he opts in, it is because he cannot get that much money when the cap is jumping and team's have a lot of money. If he opts in, it is implicitly clear that he is not on a good deal.

And 15m is a lot of cap space.

Is not that much cap space considering what other players have gotten this year. 15 mil a year is about average starter money. Pau is worth average starter money, especially considering what guys like Biyombo, Mahimni, and Mozgov got.

It's a good contract as in it's easily tradable. It's an expiring deal worth 15 mil. So lets say a team like the Nuggets have a bunch of unused cap space, the spurs could trade Pau into that space with an asset. It's a good deal for the Nuggets because they get an asset for a contract that won't be on the books at the end of the year. It's a good deal for the spurs because they got rid of a player they didn't want and they open up cap space for potential free agents.

It isn't expiring. It has a player option for 16.2m next year. I feel like we have discussed this.

[Chinook]

Only way Pau isn't a good contract is if he falls apart. He took less to be a Spur (supposedly), and it's completely possible that he'd opt into a fair deal if he likes his time in SA. To be on a good team that's winning and who might need their space to keep other guys or to sign another rotation player seems pretty attractive. Pau isn't Tim Duncan when it comes to giving up money, but he doesn't seem to put his salary way above everything else.

[Gus Fring]

Not really sure how you can reconcile Pau opting in and with the contract he opts into a very good deal.

If he opts in, it is because he cannot get that much money when the cap is jumping and team's have a lot of money. If he opts in, it is implicitly clear that he is not on a good deal.

And 15m is a lot of cap space.

Is not that much cap space considering what other players have gotten this year. 15 mil a year is about average starter money. Pau is worth average starter money, especially considering what guys like Biyombo, Mahimni, and Mozgov got.

It's a good contract as in it's easily tradable. It's an expiring deal worth 15 mil. So lets say a team like the Nuggets have a bunch of unused cap space, the spurs could trade Pau into that space with an asset. It's a good deal for the Nuggets because they get an asset for a contract that won't be on the books at the end of the year. It's a good deal for the spurs because they got rid of a player they didn't want and they open up cap space for potential free agents.

It isn't expiring. It has a player option for 16.2m next year. I feel like we have discussed this.

I was talking about next year, after which the deal becomes an expiring deal. What I meant was that depending on what goes down this year, next offseason the spurs will be in a good place to make the best decision on his contract. That's why it's a good contract. You get a good player on a good contract, you see how it works for a year and by the end of it, you have alot of options to choose from.

[Chinook]

Not really sure how you can reconcile Pau opting in and with the contract he opts into a very good deal.

If he opts in, it is because he cannot get that much money when the cap is jumping and team's have a lot of money. If he opts in, it is implicitly clear that he is not on a good deal.

And 15m is a lot of cap space.

Is not that much cap space considering what other players have gotten this year. 15 mil a year is about average starter money. Pau is worth average starter money, especially considering what guys like Biyombo, Mahimni, and Mozgov got.

It's a good contract as in it's easily tradable. It's an expiring deal worth 15 mil. So lets say a team like the Nuggets have a bunch of unused cap space, the spurs could trade Pau into that space with an asset. It's a good deal for the Nuggets because they get an asset for a contract that won't be on the books at the end of the year. It's a good deal for the spurs because they got rid of a player they didn't want and they open up cap space for potential free agents.

It isn't expiring. It has a player option for 16.2m next year. I feel like we have discussed this.

Pretty sure he means next year if Pau opts in it'll be an expiring. Now it's $16 Million as you pointed out. But I don't think anyone is entertaining trading him this season.

[Andre Roberstan]

Not really sure how you can reconcile Pau opting in and with the contract he opts into a very good deal.

If he opts in, it is because he cannot get that much money when the cap is jumping and team's have a lot of money. If he opts in, it is implicitly clear that he is not on a good deal.

And 15m is a lot of cap space.

Is not that much cap space considering what other players have gotten this year. 15 mil a year is about average starter money. Pau is worth average starter money, especially considering what guys like Biyombo, Mahimni, and Mozgov got.

It's a good contract as in it's easily tradable. It's an expiring deal worth 15 mil. So lets say a team like the Nuggets have a bunch of unused cap space, the spurs could trade Pau into that space with an asset. It's a good deal for the Nuggets because they get an asset for a contract that won't be on the books at the end of the year. It's a good deal for the spurs because they got rid of a player they didn't want and they open up cap space for potential free agents.

It isn't expiring. It has a player option for 16.2m next year. I feel like we have discussed this.

I think he means presuming he opts in.

It's still not a great deal, and you're talking about trading him in the year where there are quite a few very good FAs that will be likely taking up the available cap space.

[HartfordWhalers]

Is not that much cap space considering what other players have gotten this year. 15 mil a year is about average starter money. Pau is worth average starter money, especially considering what guys like Biyombo, Mahimni, and Mozgov got.

It's a good contract as in it's easily tradable. It's an expiring deal worth 15 mil. So lets say a team like the Nuggets have a bunch of unused cap space, the spurs could trade Pau into that space with an asset. It's a good deal for the Nuggets because they get an asset for a contract that won't be on the books at the end of the year. It's a good deal for the spurs because they got rid of a player they didn't want and they open up cap space for potential free agents.

It isn't expiring. It has a player option for 16.2m next year. I feel like we have discussed this.

I was talking about next year, after which the deal becomes an expiring deal. What I meant was that depending on what goes down this year, next offseason the spurs will be in a good place to make the best decision on his contract. That's why it's a good contract. You get a good player on a good contract, you see how it works for a year and by the end of it, you have alot of options to choose from.

But then you don't find a taker for Pau until after the good free agents are gone and there are teams like Denver with unused space.

Pau has first crack at SAS's cap space next season. If we are talking about a soft rebuild, that doesn't make me comfortable versus being set up to have 20m and see if you can do better than a 37 year old Pau.

I don't see how it doesn't potentially infringe on their flexibility considerably.

[Chinook]

The Spurs were able to trade Splitter and Diaw in successive years despite them "having first crack at their cap space". Now, I think the Spurs have overcommitted salary to the point that I don't see them as major players in next year's free agency anymore. But it shouldn't be hard to trade him if they decide to go that route. There's still a ton of cap space around, and the Spurs have plenty of friends around the league who would do them the "favor" of taking a good player on an expiring contract for free.

[Texas Chuck]

The Spurs were able to trade Splitter and Diaw in successive years despite them "having first crack at their cap space". Now, I think the Spurs have overcommitted salary to the point that I don't see them as major players in next year's free agency anymore. But it shouldn't be hard to trade him if they decide to go that route. There's still a ton of cap space around, and the Spurs have plenty of friends around the league who would do them the "favor" of taking a good player on an expiring contract for free.

Splitter was a special case because of coach Bud. And Diaw makes 3rd of the money Pau makes and had the connection with Gobert.

I'm not saying the Spurs couldn't potentially move Pau, but I feel confident in saying there won't be plenty of teams lined up to take him for free to help the Spurs out. $20M is a lot of cap space. Contenders with that much cap space will aim higher, rebuilding teams won't want him. You are going to have to find one of those teams that doesn't like to rebuild but isn't a real contender and hope they have $20M free. Teams like Atlanta(oh except Howard is there so they are out). Dallas(seems unlikely they'd help SAS and a bad fit with Dirk), Chicago(yeah that won't happen again), Houston(hmm MDA so probably not).

It's not going to be that simple.

[Scoot McGroot]

The Spurs were able to trade Splitter and Diaw in successive years despite them "having first crack at their cap space". Now, I think the Spurs have overcommitted salary to the point that I don't see them as major players in next year's free agency anymore. But it shouldn't be hard to trade him if they decide to go that route. There's still a ton of cap space around, and the Spurs have plenty of friends around the league who would do them the "favor" of taking a good player on an expiring contract for free.

If he opts in, I think it implies that he's not a good player at that point and on that contract. Otherwise, he'd opt out for a multi year deal. So, how many friends would do San Antonio the "favor" of taking a past good player, now bad, on an expiring contract, without being paid to do so?

[Chinook]

Splitter was a special case because of coach Bud. And Diaw makes 3rd of the money Pau makes and had the connection with Gobert.

I don' think either was special. The Spurs purposefully rebuffed offers in June (at least for Splitter), and I'm assuming that's because they already knew they'd be able to deal those players in July through deals already agreed to. Now, if Pau is a complete jerk about it, then he could wait until after the draft to opt in. But even so, I don't doubt the Spurs would have had those discussions with team.

I'm not saying the Spurs couldn't potentially move Pau, but I feel confident in saying there won't be plenty of teams lined up to take him for free to help the Spurs out. $20M is a lot of cap space. Contenders with that much cap space will aim higher, rebuilding teams won't want him. You are going to have to find one of those teams that doesn't like to rebuild but isn't a real contender and hope they have $20M free. Teams like Atlanta(oh except Howard is there so they are out). Dallas(seems unlikely they'd help SAS and a bad fit with Dirk), Chicago(yeah that won't happen again), Houston(hmm MDA so probably not).

It's not going to be that simple.

I think he'll have more interest than Diaw did. Pau is talking $16 Million if he opts in, and while that's not MLE money, it is equivalent to Mozgov money (which should only be higher next summer). I don't think there's going to be a bidding war, but the UFA market for bigs isn't that great next summer (and that's not even factoring players just reupping). I think he'd get similar interest to this past July.

[Chinook]

The Spurs were able to trade Splitter and Diaw in successive years despite them "having first crack at their cap space". Now, I think the Spurs have overcommitted salary to the point that I don't see them as major players in next year's free agency anymore. But it shouldn't be hard to trade him if they decide to go that route. There's still a ton of cap space around, and the Spurs have plenty of friends around the league who would do them the "favor" of taking a good player on an expiring contract for free.

If he opts in, I think it implies that he's not a good player at that point and on that contract. Otherwise, he'd opt out for a multi year deal.

I don't think that's necessarily true. He's not making Dedmon money. He's well-paid for an above-average starting big, and if he's happy where he is (for once), I can see him just sticking around, especially since he's been talking about retirement. He might just want that last year.

Or it's possible that he opts in because the Spurs tell him they will not give him the multi-year deal he wants (from them). They have a big off-season in 2018 and may not want to commit to an aging Gasol past that point. Sure, he might be able to get more by signing a one-year deal while opting out, but that'd come out of their cap space, which they might for Dedmon and/or to replace Manu.

So, how many friends would do San Antonio the "favor" of taking a past good player, now bad, on an expiring contract, without being paid to do so?

Multiple teams, though that list will change depending on their fortunes. Even in the scenario where Gasol isn't confident he'd get more money by opting out, he probably isn't a bad player. Teams that were going to have to pay premiums for those types of guys (Denver, Brooklyn, LAL) may see themselves as good landing spots, if only so they could try flipping him later.