Orlando early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Smitty731/HowardMass)

[wise1-2]

Sure, but thats not what I said. So, your rambling argument is a bad one.

So far you have claimed that the Harris trade got Biyombo (not true), or max cap space (also not true).

It definitely did add to the amount of cap space next year.

It made it possible and easy for Hennigan to open up more or less max capspace. All he needs to do is trade one or more of his players, which is necessary to open up playing time anyway. What I said is still far more accurate than your claim that Harris was traded to be replaced with green and Meeks.

Well, that really would have only been accurate if I had said that. Since I didn't, that is a big miss.


Here is my first reply to you on this train wreck of a tangent:

They did not spend that freed up capspace on Green/Meeks. They used it on biyombo, who is a much better investment than Harris. Dumping harris ended up being a good move, as usual we can look back and say hennigan was right.

Orlando could have signed Biyombo without the Harris deal.

Which is absolutely true.

"He [Bismack Biyombo] was our primary target in free agency," said Vogel during the introduction of Biyombo last month.

Right, and they had cap room for him even without the Tobias Harris deal.

So, they already had cap room for their first target -- Biyombo -- and the newly created extra cap room was used afterwards would be the more common way of looking at things.

We had 20m in cap room so we had to trade Harris to make 35m in room so we could sign Biyombo for 15m a year is a pretty strange take imo.

And then the max cap space argument:

They didn't have to trade Harris to sign Green either. You guys are missing the fact that green was a one year deal. Looking beyond this season (which Hennigan is doing) only Biyombo affects next years cap. Biyombo is taking up those 17 mill/yr that were going to Harris. They could've kept Harris, but then they don't have room for a max next year. The plan was always to have room for a max this summer and in 2017. Green doesn't affect next years cap space. Biyombo and Harris do. Green was signed give them some depth this year, and scoring off the bench. You can either say Hennigan replaced Harris with Green AND opened up room for a max next year, or he signed Biyombo. Instead you guys are reducing it to just Green replaced Harris, like we just signed Green to the same deal as Harris. That's not true at all. Biyombo's deal is much more similar to Harris'.

“And we always believed that this summer and next summer were going to be the two summers of free agency for us that we needed to focus on after developing our young guys.”- Alex Martins

Orlando won't have max cap space next year unless Ibaka walks.

There's more than one way to look at it.

Sure, but some are factually wrong.

Needing the trade to sign Biyombo, or getting max cap space next year from the trade are both entirely factually wrong. And returning to them to defend a (bad) previous season trade is just stupid at this point.

If you like the Tobias trade, I just don't care. If you keep saying inaccurate things about it or Orlando's 2017 cap situation, I might not even care about that at this point to correct you. But you will still be wrong.

So you're still hung up m the fact that I said it opens up room for a max. Ok, I made a little miscalculation and corrected it, but my argument is far more logical than yours. Like I said anyway, the team will make other moves to open up playing time. I also never said that the Tobias trade was NEEDED to sign Biymbo. It was needed to sign Biyombo AND maintain long term flexibility, which I proved was always the plan (Martins+Vogel quotes). Signing Biyombo with Harris on the roster would've been a terrible idea that only adds to the log jam in the front court, and you know that. Having one player on Biyombo level getting 17 mill/yr is fine. Having Harris and Biyombo making 34 mill or almost one third of the cap between them is a terrible idea, especially when they're both going to be bench players.

[Texas Chuck]

which I proved

This doesn't mean what you think it means.


Proved -- demonstrate the truth or existence of (something) by evidence or argument (past tense).


The word you are looking for is justified

Justification -- the act of defending or explaining or making excuses for by reasoning. Pay special attention to the underlined.

The difference is subtle, but really quite important.

[Cosmic_Backlash]

I mean if we're looking at o-ratings as the source of truth, Gordon had a 114, Ibaka a 108, and Fournier is sliding to his natural position from SF to SG with a 111.

I am not looking at individual offensive rating, rather what the TEAM did when a player was on the court and off the court.

Your comment about o-rating doesn't refute anything - it's just throwing out another fact. Everything I said before is true. Oladipo is an above average usage player with slightly below average results. The fact still is the most successful team composition the magic had all year was one without Oladipo.

In a sample size that is equivalent to 4 games. I know what sample size does to statistics, and it may help if you read up on it as well. Also, why did the Magic trade 2 of those players for basically nothing, as Hartford said.

I'm just pointing counter argument to "the magic relied on Oladipo as a crutch in their offense last year" I keep appearing here. He might have been? but I'm just trying to present the other side that there is in fact evidence he was holding the team back in some ways too.

I don't see how he was holding the team back. None of the evidence points to that. The team had a higher oRTG with him on the court than any other player besides Channing Frye, who they traded for nothing. I am curious how you are coming to this conclusion, because from all of the data I have looked at, I don't see this conclusion that you are coming to as accurate.

The sample size I used was the most relevant as it was the composition of players that had the most minutes for the entire year. Obviously, it's not a huge sample size, but you're basically saying every combination of players the magic played last year is entirely irrelevant.

I'm a big fan of team on/off, like you're using, but it's an obviously flawed metric. In it's own way it's measuring performance of Oladipo over a replacement. It doesn't take into account player combinations. It's pretty clear that Oladipo paired with Payton was net negative. It's possible to be an ok player but have negative synergies with someone else.

Neither way is an absolute best answer. There are countless variables to consider that cause lots of metrics you look at to have noise. The whole point of my post was to attempt to have you look at something from a different lense than you and the media have painted for the Magic.

[Colbinii]

The sample size I used was the most relevant as it was the composition of players that had the most minutes for the entire year.

The line-up you used included Frye and Harris, which is the reason it was so good, as they provided excellent spacing. Gordon and Ibaka don't provide the same consistency of spacing and aren't as good offensively as those two.

Obviously, it's not a huge sample size, but you're basically saying every combination of players the magic played last year is entirely irrelevant.

Not really. I am saying that Oladipo had the highest on/off oRTG of the entire team, which is true.

I'm a big fan of team on/off, like you're using, but it's an obviously flawed metric.

Yeah, all stat's are flawed when used by themselves. I think the statistic does shine light on what Oladipo meant for the team. Take Fournier for example, on court the Magic had a 109.1 dRTG, and when he sat the Magic had a 102.9 dRTG.

It's pretty clear that Oladipo paired with Payton was net negative. It's possible to be an ok player but have negative synergies with someone else.

Yeah, that is what happens when you have one of the worst starting PG's in the league.

Neither way is an absolute best answer. There are countless variables to consider that cause lots of metrics you look at to have noise. The whole point of my post was to attempt to have you look at something from a different lense than you and the media have painted for the Magic.

I don't listen to the media surrounding basketball. I don't have a "lense" or reason to bash the Magic. I do know that Oladipo is a solid player and was one of their best players last season. I am interested to see how they do this season, but with Hezonja and Fournier on the wings, their defense is going to struggle without Oladipo to cover for them.

[Cosmic_Backlash]

It's pretty clear you don't watch the Magic. Fournier was forced out of position as the starting SF with Oladipo here as well. Fournier has no business guarding small forwards. He's not a defensive center piece in the back court, but he was absolutely playing out of position for a huge part of the year being forced into a forward position.

I've presented several positions for why Oladipo doesn't matter as much as you think offensively (negative synergies, below average efficiencies) but you cling to what you're looking at. So peace, I'll let the games play themselves out.

[wise1-2]

which I proved

This doesn't mean what you think it means.


Proved -- demonstrate the truth or existence of (something) by evidence or argument (past tense).


The word you are looking for is justified

Justification -- the act of defending or explaining or making excuses for by reasoning. Pay special attention to the underlined.

The difference is subtle, but really quite important.

I'm not here to argue semantics, lets stick to the topic. Did you or did you not understand what I'm getting at? Do you guys finally see why its much more accurate to say Hennigan replaced Harris with Biyombo than saying he replaced him with Green?

[wise1-2]

The sample size I used was the most relevant as it was the composition of players that had the most minutes for the entire year.

The line-up you used included Frye and Harris, which is the reason it was so good, as they provided excellent spacing. Gordon and Ibaka don't provide the same consistency of spacing and aren't as good offensively as those two.

Obviously, it's not a huge sample size, but you're basically saying every combination of players the magic played last year is entirely irrelevant.

Not really. I am saying that Oladipo had the highest on/off oRTG of the entire team, which is true.

I'm a big fan of team on/off, like you're using, but it's an obviously flawed metric.

Yeah, all stat's are flawed when used by themselves. I think the statistic does shine light on what Oladipo meant for the team. Take Fournier for example, on court the Magic had a 109.1 dRTG, and when he sat the Magic had a 102.9 dRTG.

It's pretty clear that Oladipo paired with Payton was net negative. It's possible to be an ok player but have negative synergies with someone else.

Yeah, that is what happens when you have one of the worst starting PG's in the league.

Neither way is an absolute best answer. There are countless variables to consider that cause lots of metrics you look at to have noise. The whole point of my post was to attempt to have you look at something from a different lense than you and the media have painted for the Magic.

I don't listen to the media surrounding basketball. I don't have a "lense" or reason to bash the Magic. I do know that Oladipo is a solid player and was one of their best players last season. I am interested to see how they do this season, but with Hezonja and Fournier on the wings, their defense is going to struggle without Oladipo to cover for them.

I agree Oladipo played a significant role in the offense, but he wasn't our best offensive player. Probably not even second best. Also he was above average defensively but nothing special at all. I hated that he'd drive recklessly to the hoop, hit the floor and take a few seconds to get up and shake it off. It happened way too often and it negatively impacted the defense I'm sure. Oladipo is a good (not great, and still inconsistent) individual defender, but Fournier and Mario are capable of being good as well. Mario especially has a good amount of potential when it comes to individual defense. Fournier is already pretty solid. I don't think they'll struggle at all. Especially with Ibaka and Gordon providing excellent help defense. Also, Harris didn't provide "excellent spacing". He could hit a few open shots, but he wasn't very dependable. Only 31.1% 3pt shooting with the Magic.

[Magic_Johnny12]

"Work hard in silence, let success make all the noise".

[Colbinii]

Only 31.1% 3pt shooting with the Magic.

He shot 44% from 16- <3pt. That is still providing spacing.

[pacers33granger]

Overall the off season seems to rely on the young guys taking a step (which is a good move imo). Hiring Vogel was a good step here.

There's no way I can get behind the free agent signings of Green/Augustin and trading for Meeks though.

Green is the new Josh Smith. Guy who theoretically can do it all but is deficient everywhere. Hennigan got him on a one year deal so it's whatever rally but he's not good.

Meeks just seemed like a waste. Again hrs expiring, but I don't even expect him to play so why waste the space.

Augustin is at best a mediocre backup and that's it.

Overall it's not a huge hindrance but that's max space wasted on 3 bench players, none of which should have ever contributed to winning throughout their careers.

I get pushing the window out and not blocking young guys (love most of the prospects on the team) but so odd grabbing the guys they did.

[wise1-2]

Only 31.1% 3pt shooting with the Magic.

He shot 44% from 16- <3pt. That is still providing spacing.

He took less than one of those per game, and I'm sure some came off the dribble. Even so, it wasn't an efficient shot. It was even less efficient than his threes. He took 3 times more three point shots, but Harris just wasn't an excellent floor spacer. Teams didn't respect his shot anywhere near as much as Ibaka for example. I'm not saying he can't shoot at all, but you need to develop a reputation as a shooter to be considered an excellent floor spacer. Guys like Ibaka, Fournier, Frye and Vucevic have developed that reputation.

[Domejandro]

I give them a "D".

[tiderulz]

Overall the off season seems to rely on the young guys taking a step (which is a good move imo). Hiring Vogel was a good step here.

There's no way I can get behind the free agent signings of Green/Augustin and trading for Meeks though.

Green is the new Josh Smith. Guy who theoretically can do it all but is deficient everywhere. Hennigan got him on a one year deal so it's whatever rally but he's not good.

Meeks just seemed like a waste. Again hrs expiring, but I don't even expect him to play so why waste the space.

Augustin is at best a mediocre backup and that's it.

Overall it's not a huge hindrance but that's max space wasted on 3 bench players, none of which should have ever contributed to winning throughout their careers.

I get pushing the window out and not blocking young guys (love most of the prospects on the team) but so odd grabbing the guys they did.

i cant get behind Augustin or Meeks either. Green i can see. He is an emergency starter if AG at SF doesnt work out. otherwise, he is a bench player to provide depth. Was $15mil high, yes. But we dont know what other offers he had. I dont know how he is in the locker room, so i dont know if that was a target thing too. Hennigan has seemed to pay a bit more for some vets, i believe so that they dont cause waves in the locker room if they arent starting. This could be the case here too. I also cant get behind the Green = Smith comparison. Maybe i havent seen enough of him, but i dont remember watching Green shoot his team out of games, something i have seen Smith do.

[tiderulz]

I give them a "D".

very insightful breakdown. I can see how you came to your conclusion.

[Domejandro]

I give them a "D".

very insightful breakdown. I can see how you came to your conclusion.

I wasn't giving a break-down, merely posting my answer to the question in the poll. That said, if you really want a brief break-down...

-----Bismack Biyombo was grossly overpaid (72/4 is asinine, especially with a player option).
-----Orlando got absolutely fleeced by Oklahoma City (A declining Serge Ibaka for not only #11, but Ersan Illyasova AND Victor Oladipo is absurd).
-----7.25 million per year on D.J. Augustine is just too much.
-----Evan Fournier getting 85/5 is also ridiculous, not to mention the player-option on the fifth year. That will prove to be a gross contract.
-----Jeff Green was a mediocre signing at best, but Orlando certainly deserves credit for making it one year.
-----Jodie Meeks is unfortunately injured AGAIN, making that a likely waste of a conditional pick, as well as six million cap-space that could have been more effectively used.

They did an excellent job with the Frank Vogel signing. Other than that, this was an off-season of horribly short-sited moves and significant overpays. Orlando should have stood pat, perhaps let Evan Fournier walk, and use their cap-space on acquiring useful players like Cole Aldrich and Aaron Afflalo (and then just trade for Jeff Teague themselves) instead of pissing away cap-space and assets like they did.

[tiderulz]

I give them a "D".

very insightful breakdown. I can see how you came to your conclusion.

I wasn't giving a break-down, merely posting my answer to the question in the poll. That said, if you really want a brief break-down...

-----Bismack Biyombo was grossly overpaid (72/4 is asinine, especially with a player option).
-----Orlando got absolutely fleeced by Oklahoma City (A declining Serge Ibaka for not only #11, but Ersan Illyasova AND Victor Oladipo is absurd).
-----7.25 million per year on D.J. Augustine is just too much.
-----Evan Fournier getting 85/5 is also ridiculous, not to mention the player-option on the fifth year. That will prove to be a gross contract.
-----Jeff Green was a mediocre signing at best, but Orlando certainly deserves credit for making it one year.
-----Jodie Meeks is unfortunately injured AGAIN, making that a likely waste of a conditional pick, as well as six million cap-space that could have been more effectively used.

They did an excellent job with the Frank Vogel signing. Other than that, this was an off-season of horribly short-sited moves and significant overpays. Orlando should have stood pat, perhaps let Evan Fournier walk, and use their cap-space on acquiring useful players like Cole Aldrich and Aaron Afflalo (and then just trade for Jeff Teague themselves) instead of pissing away cap-space and assets like they did.

Fournier was one of the better contracts for any team. Was one of the top 3 pt shooting FA's available this offseason.
Ilyasova part of an overpay? he was going to be released, he was just filler.

[Domejandro]

very insightful breakdown. I can see how you came to your conclusion.

I wasn't giving a break-down, merely posting my answer to the question in the poll. That said, if you really want a brief break-down...

-----Bismack Biyombo was grossly overpaid (72/4 is asinine, especially with a player option).
-----Orlando got absolutely fleeced by Oklahoma City (A declining Serge Ibaka for not only #11, but Ersan Illyasova AND Victor Oladipo is absurd).
-----7.25 million per year on D.J. Augustine is just too much.
-----Evan Fournier getting 85/5 is also ridiculous, not to mention the player-option on the fifth year. That will prove to be a gross contract.
-----Jeff Green was a mediocre signing at best, but Orlando certainly deserves credit for making it one year.
-----Jodie Meeks is unfortunately injured AGAIN, making that a likely waste of a conditional pick, as well as six million cap-space that could have been more effectively used.

They did an excellent job with the Frank Vogel signing. Other than that, this was an off-season of horribly short-sited moves and significant overpays. Orlando should have stood pat, perhaps let Evan Fournier walk, and use their cap-space on acquiring useful players like Cole Aldrich and Aaron Afflalo (and then just trade for Jeff Teague themselves) instead of pissing away cap-space and assets like they did.

Fournier was one of the better contracts for any team. Was one of the top 3 pt shooting FA's available this offseason.
Ilyasova part of an overpay? he was going to be released, he was just filler.

The overpay is Victor Oladipo, but Ersan is a good player, I am surprised Orlando planned to release him, but if so, fair enough on that point. If Evan Fournier proves me wrong, I'll eat crow, but I am highly, highly skeptical he lives up to that contract.

[Colbinii]

I give them a "D".

The D.

[jazzfan1971]

Im surprised all the reviewers had Gordon starting at SF. I don't think he can shoot well enough to plY SF. I'd just dare him to beat me from outside as an opposing coach. I'd give him maybe a 15% chance to be the starting SF by the All-Star break.

[wise1-2]

Im surprised all the reviewers had Gordon starting at SF. I don't think he can shoot well enough to plY SF. I'd just dare him to beat me from outside as an opposing coach. I'd give him maybe a 15% chance to be the starting SF by the All-Star break.

hat's what opposing coaches already do, no matter what position he plays. Let me ask you this, can Jabari and Giannis shoot well enough to play SF or are they both PFs? Because they're all more or less on the same level if you look at their shooting stats. With the Magic its easier to get away with Gordon at SF because Ibaka and Vucevic are good shooters.