Orlando early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Smitty731/HowardMass)

[RexRyan]

Based on Henigan's past, I smell a Vucevic for Amir Johnson swap at the deadline. Good expiring deal for Orlando so they can replace Vucevic with another monster contract the same way they replaced Harris with Biyombo.

You should post my explanation for the post you have in your sig. Just to confirm to people how clueless you are when it comes to the Magic.

You should post how you thought the Harris trade was for capspace eighteen months down the road for your sig. Just to confirm to people how clueless you are when it comes to the Magic.

[HartfordWhalers]

Now, if you're talking about dumping all of your players for cap space, sure, you could do that. Just like you could do with Harris. So, dumping Harris last year, and then signing Jeff Green to a one year deal this year didn't change anything. You're still required to make massive moves and dump a lot of money on guaranteed contracts to get massive space, as you think is just an automatic.

Dumping Vucevic and Augustin = easy
Dumping Vucevic, Augustin and Harris = impossible.

Maybe if you watched the Magic more you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

[Scoot McGroot]

That's not true, they have like 20 mill in cap space with Ibaka's cap hold. If they jut dump Augustin, that's a max contract. If they trade Vucevic, they'd have even more. Check this article out. It says best case is 50 mill in cap space, worst case 20 mill.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-saturday-post-draft-2016-17-cap-projections/

Well, there's your problem, mate. That article was written on June 25. Free agency hadn't happened yet. So, subtract $17m for Bismack. Subtract $17m for Fournier. Subtract $7.25m for Augustin. And lastly, subtract $1m from that projection for Stephen Zimmerman (though this is non-guaranteed). So, now, your $50m top projection is down to a max projection of around $8m (as I said) with Ibaka's cap hold. And, subtract his cap hold, and you're around $26m (again, as I said).

You're just working with really old information that isn't accurate anymore.

Edit: Oh, and, as HW said, that's a 2016 offseason projection. You're talking about 2017 projection. But, again, $8-$26m depending on if you plan on keeping Ibaka, or even trying to keep Ibaka, rather.

Yeah my bad on the article, I was wondering where he got 50 mill from, but I was right about the 19 mill. Let's check the numbers...
17 mill for Fournier
17 mill biyombo
18 mill for serge
12 mill for vucevic
7 mill for Augustin
1 mill (guaranteed) for Watson
5 mill for Gordon
5 mill for Mario
3 mill for Payton
1 mill for Zimmerman

These are the contracts for next year and they add up to roughly 86 mill. The cap being at 108. 108-86= 22 mill.

I know you already learned that the projection for the cap that year is also lower at $102m, not $108, but you also consistently rounded down on every player. So, the extra $250k on Vucevic and Augustin, extra $500k on Gordon, extra $330k on Mario, and extra $180k on Payton add up. So, now, that $22m you though is down to $16m just on using the accurate numbers, and then down to $14.5m on using full contracts. Add in the $1.5m to $2.5m for a 1st round pick, and the other minimum roster charges, and you're down to around $12m in usable space. Again, unless you plan on Ibaka walking for nothing.

Now, you could then use a 1st round pick to try and dump Augustin somewhere, but you have to find one of the few teams (far fewer teams next year project to have $7+m in cap space than teams do this year) that have enough cap space to absorb Augustin, and are willing to use up that cap space before they have a chance to hit free agency and shop with that money (remember, one of the only teams willing to commit their cap space before free agency this summer was Orlando). Vucevic would probably have takers, but if you're looking at just cap space instead of contracts, you might not get any value, so is it worth giving up Ibaka AND Vucevic to then go out and try and sign a big man that might replicate what those guys provide on court.

[wise1-2]

I am. I even explicitly stated that it would be 4m less room if he is not cut. I can bold it also? I will do that now.

The 10 players you listed have cap hits of $86,782,830 total with Watson cut, and then you only have 9 bodies of roster counts. So, you might want to account for the fact that you need incomplete roster charges. You might also want to account for a draft pick, or not. Given a cap of $102 million as expected, you will have a really hard time getting to ~20m as is.

I'm a little busy multitasking. I didn't see that part about Watson, and I also thought the cap will be 108 mill? if its 102, then 102-86.7=15.3 mill. 16.3 mill if Zimmerman is unguaranteed. Which is still higher than the 8-10 mill Scoots projected, and again trading someone will be necessary to find playing time. So if they trade Augustin, that's 23-24 mill. If they trade Vucevic, that's 28-29 mill. Had they kept Harris, they wouldn't have that kind of flexibility unless they dumped ~30 mill in long term contracts in 2017, and got no salary back, which is damn near impossible in one offseason.

Ah, I guess I did include Watson's full contract, not his guarantee. So, $12-$16m. Sorry about that.

Now, if you're talking about dumping all of your players for cap space, sure, you could do that. Just like you could do with Harris. So, dumping Harris last year, and then signing Jeff Green to a one year deal this year didn't change anything. You're still required to make massive moves and dump a lot of money on guaranteed contracts to get massive space, as you think is just an automatic. Again, lowered salary cap to $102m, much less teams that will have cap space to absorb these guys in the summer (so you have to deal these guys before the deadline for expiring deals), and other charges you didn't take into account. And renouncing Ibaka, too. Which, if the plan is to just renounce Ibaka, why do that deal and just hold onto Oladipo (whom you could also renounce, or trade for a future 1st), and hold onto the #10, which you could deal Sabonis for another future pick? Seems like Ibaka is certainly in the plans.

And dumping Zimmerman doesn't help as much as you think, since you would have minimum roster charges take the place of him (roughly $550k, when Zimmerman is owed $990k, so, a savings on the cap of only around $440k). Why not keep Zimmerman at that price, instead of dumping him?

The plan is not to renounce ibaka. They have moveable contracts, and there will still be teams under the cap. I'm sure plenty of teams would love to have Vucevic at his price, and Augustin is a good back up PG. For example, they could trade Vucevic to the Pelicans for their 1st. The point is they have flexibility, which they wouldn't have with Harris. 16 mill in cap was freed up by trading Harris, that is what I'm getting at. If they had Harris on the books it would've been near impossible to clear enough room for a max contract.

[RexRyan]

Now, if you're talking about dumping all of your players for cap space, sure, you could do that. Just like you could do with Harris. So, dumping Harris last year, and then signing Jeff Green to a one year deal this year didn't change anything. You're still required to make massive moves and dump a lot of money on guaranteed contracts to get massive space, as you think is just an automatic.

Dumping Vucevic and Augustin = easy
Dumping Vucevic, Augustin and Harris = impossible.

Maybe if you watched the Magic more you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

If this past year is any indication, perhaps a backup center who plays above his head for a few games in the playoffs. Maybe pumps his fists a few times to get the crowd going.

Aaron Baynes - 4 years, $75 million is my best guess.

[wise1-2]

Well, there's your problem, mate. That article was written on June 25. Free agency hadn't happened yet. So, subtract $17m for Bismack. Subtract $17m for Fournier. Subtract $7.25m for Augustin. And lastly, subtract $1m from that projection for Stephen Zimmerman (though this is non-guaranteed). So, now, your $50m top projection is down to a max projection of around $8m (as I said) with Ibaka's cap hold. And, subtract his cap hold, and you're around $26m (again, as I said).

You're just working with really old information that isn't accurate anymore.

Edit: Oh, and, as HW said, that's a 2016 offseason projection. You're talking about 2017 projection. But, again, $8-$26m depending on if you plan on keeping Ibaka, or even trying to keep Ibaka, rather.

Yeah my bad on the article, I was wondering where he got 50 mill from, but I was right about the 19 mill. Let's check the numbers...
17 mill for Fournier
17 mill biyombo
18 mill for serge
12 mill for vucevic
7 mill for Augustin
1 mill (guaranteed) for Watson
5 mill for Gordon
5 mill for Mario
3 mill for Payton
1 mill for Zimmerman

These are the contracts for next year and they add up to roughly 86 mill. The cap being at 108. 108-86= 22 mill.

I know you already learned that the projection for the cap that year is also lower at $102m, not $108, but you also consistently rounded down on every player. So, the extra $250k on Vucevic and Augustin, extra $500k on Gordon, extra $330k on Mario, and extra $180k on Payton add up. So, now, that $22m you though is down to $16m just on using the accurate numbers, and then down to $14.5m on using full contracts. Add in the $1.5m to $2.5m for a 1st round pick, and the other minimum roster charges, and you're down to around $12m in usable space. Again, unless you plan on Ibaka walking for nothing.

Now, you could then use a 1st round pick to try and dump Augustin somewhere, but you have to find one of the few teams (far fewer teams next year project to have $7+m in cap space than teams do this year) that have enough cap space to absorb Augustin, and are willing to use up that cap space before they have a chance to hit free agency and shop with that money (remember, one of the only teams willing to commit their cap space before free agency this summer was Orlando). Vucevic would probably have takers, but if you're looking at just cap space instead of contracts, you might not get any value, so is it worth giving up Ibaka AND Vucevic to then go out and try and sign a big man that might replicate what those guys provide on court.

I added a mill for Mario to offset the ones I rounds down, and Ibaka doesn't need to walk. They can still have his cap hold, and clear enough for a max contract by just dumping Vucevic for a 1st. A lot of teams will still have enough cap space to absorb a 7-12 mill contract.

[wise1-2]

Now, if you're talking about dumping all of your players for cap space, sure, you could do that. Just like you could do with Harris. So, dumping Harris last year, and then signing Jeff Green to a one year deal this year didn't change anything. You're still required to make massive moves and dump a lot of money on guaranteed contracts to get massive space, as you think is just an automatic.

Dumping Vucevic and Augustin = easy
Dumping Vucevic, Augustin and Harris = impossible.

Maybe if you watched the Magic more you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

Paying 35 mill for two back ups is a great idea! You're right, they should've kept Harris, and it would've been very easy to dump 30+ mill in contract.

[wise1-2]

Based on Henigan's past, I smell a Vucevic for Amir Johnson swap at the deadline. Good expiring deal for Orlando so they can replace Vucevic with another monster contract the same way they replaced Harris with Biyombo.

You should post my explanation for the post you have in your sig. Just to confirm to people how clueless you are when it comes to the Magic.

You should post how you thought the Harris trade was for capspace eighteen months down the road for your sig. Just to confirm to people how clueless you are when it comes to the Magic.

Again proving how lost you are. Its called foresight. Look it up.

[HartfordWhalers]

Now, if you're talking about dumping all of your players for cap space, sure, you could do that. Just like you could do with Harris. So, dumping Harris last year, and then signing Jeff Green to a one year deal this year didn't change anything. You're still required to make massive moves and dump a lot of money on guaranteed contracts to get massive space, as you think is just an automatic.

Dumping Vucevic and Augustin = easy
Dumping Vucevic, Augustin and Harris = impossible.

Maybe if you watched the Magic more you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

Paying 35 mill for two back ups is a great idea! You're right, they should've kept Harris, and it would've been very easy to dump 30+ mill in contract.

They are doing that to the tune of 32m this year (and to a worse player), and you liked that. Is the 3m under a larger cap that different?

[wise1-2]

Now, if you're talking about dumping all of your players for cap space, sure, you could do that. Just like you could do with Harris. So, dumping Harris last year, and then signing Jeff Green to a one year deal this year didn't change anything. You're still required to make massive moves and dump a lot of money on guaranteed contracts to get massive space, as you think is just an automatic.

Dumping Vucevic and Augustin = easy
Dumping Vucevic, Augustin and Harris = impossible.

Maybe if you watched the Magic more you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

If this past year is any indication, perhaps a backup center who plays above his head for a few games in the playoffs. Maybe pumps his fists a few times to get the crowd going.

Aaron Baynes - 4 years, $75 million is my best guess.

Yeah never mind the defense he played in the play offs, and the great games he had in the regular season too. That was all irrelevant. All Biyombo does is pumps his fists, that's how he helped push that caves series to 7 games.

[wise1-2]

Dumping Vucevic and Augustin = easy
Dumping Vucevic, Augustin and Harris = impossible.

Maybe if you watched the Magic more you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

Paying 35 mill for two back ups is a great idea! You're right, they should've kept Harris, and it would've been very easy to dump 30+ mill in contract.

They are doing that to the tune of 32m this year (and to a worse player), and you liked that. Is the 3m under a larger cap that different?

Considering the fact that green is an expiring who won't be on the roster next year, I don't mind it. There's a huge difference between having an expiring and long term contract, do I really need to explain this to you?

[jayjaysee]

you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

I'd like that one answered as well, please.

Cause as I count; we are pitching EP, Mario, Evan, AG, Ibaka, and Biyombo to be long term starters after dumping Vooch and DJ. Then the Magic's plan is to sign a 7th starter who makes max money?

[HartfordWhalers]

Paying 35 mill for two back ups is a great idea! You're right, they should've kept Harris, and it would've been very easy to dump 30+ mill in contract.

They are doing that to the tune of 32m this year (and to a worse player), and you liked that. Is the 3m under a larger cap that different?

Considering the fact that green is an expiring who won't be on the roster next year, I don't mind it. There's a huge difference between having an expiring and long term contract, do I really need to explain this to you?

Actually before we get to that, I'm going to take a second and correct your 35m figure. It would just be 33m, so 1m more than this year.

And yes, I would like you to explain to me why a series of worse players on 1 year deals is better than a better player on a 3 year deal.

[RexRyan]

You should post my explanation for the post you have in your sig. Just to confirm to people how clueless you are when it comes to the Magic.

You should post how you thought the Harris trade was for capspace eighteen months down the road for your sig. Just to confirm to people how clueless you are when it comes to the Magic.

Again proving how lost you are. Its called foresight. Look it up.

"Pistons steal good player from Orlando as GM tells the fans it's for eighteen months down the road."

Those who believe that are indeed lost. Its called stupidity. Look it up.

[Texas Chuck]

You should post how you thought the Harris trade was for capspace eighteen months down the road for your sig. Just to confirm to people how clueless you are when it comes to the Magic.

Again proving how lost you are. Its called foresight. Look it up.

"Pistons steal good player from Orlando as GM tells the fans it's for eighteen months down the road."

Those who believe that are indeed lost. Its called stupidity. Look it up.

Let's disagree with each other without the insults please. Friendly warning to both sides here.

Thanks

Chuck

[pacers33granger]

If the Magic want max space, I don't see them having trouble getting it next offseason, but that requires moving Vuc. He's got his problems, but he's still on a great contract and does enough things well. I'd be shocked if they couldn't get a decent asset for him.

I'd be equally shocked if they could dump Augustin without incentive. Maybe not a first (unless it's heavily protected), but it will take something. Then again, I don't think he's a good backup PG. He's a mediocre one at best imo. He's been on 7 teams already and none of them seemed to want him back with the exception of the Hornets who drafted him (and subsequently just let him walk after his rookie deal).

[wise1-2]

you would understand that Harris was dumped so Vucevic and the newly signed Augustin could be dumped for max fa space to sign _____ ?

Wait, who is the max being used on?

I'd like that one answered as well, please.

Cause as I count; we are pitching EP, Mario, Evan, AG, Ibaka, and Biyombo to be long term starters after dumping Vooch and DJ. Then the Magic's plan is to sign a 7th starter who makes max money?

I've repeatedly said the Magic aren't a finished product, and that is why flexibility is so important. They could sign a max contract, and then use other assets in a trade. Fournier, Mario, EP and maybe biyombo will be up for trade if they can get a high level player. If not then some will be traded, some will start and some will move to the bench. They also won't just dump Vucevic for no reason. They will do so AFTER meeting and agreeing with a FA, similar to what GS did with Bogut. As is they have a lot of moveable assets and the ability to open up enough cap space for a max contract. That is flexibility. Seeing as how the Magic aren't a finished product, its good to have all options open.

[wise1-2]

They are doing that to the tune of 32m this year (and to a worse player), and you liked that. Is the 3m under a larger cap that different?

Considering the fact that green is an expiring who won't be on the roster next year, I don't mind it. There's a huge difference between having an expiring and long term contract, do I really need to explain this to you?

Actually before we get to that, I'm going to take a second and correct your 35m figure. It would just be 33m, so 1m more than this year.

And yes, I would like you to explain to me why a series of worse players on 1 year deals is better than a better player on a 3 year deal.

You're directly assuming Rob is going to use that 2017 cap space on a one year deal? Maybe they should've signed Loul Deng or Evan Turner, or kept Harris and lost all flexibility. The Magic aren't going in the same route as the blazers, who locked up Harkless, Crabbe and Turner and killed their future cap space because they dont believe they can attract a great player. The Magic believe they can attract some of the best FAs on the market. They almost got Millsap to sign on a 25 win team. Hennigan knows how to make a great pitch. I'll take the cap space and chance to get a max FA over Harris any day. Green is just there as a placeholder and to provide a scoring punch off the bench.

[wise1-2]

Again proving how lost you are. Its called foresight. Look it up.

"Pistons steal good player from Orlando as GM tells the fans it's for eighteen months down the road."

Those who believe that are indeed lost. Its called stupidity. Look it up.

Let's disagree with each other without the insults please. Friendly warning to both sides here.

Thanks

Chuck

Lol if this was me I would've been banned. Heck I was banned for much less than this. Just ask bondom.

Anyway, rex enjoy the mediocre Tobias and the cap space he's eaten up, and enjoy your team because your'e likely stuck with that roster for a while. I'm not worried about the Pistons, as long as Drummond and Jackson are your best players I dont see them doing much.

[BullyKing]

I can't believe this is still going on. It's like one person is trying to set the world record for longest time shouting at the rain.