New Orleans & Orlando: PG and C Swap

[spearsy23]

I love that fans of other teams just dismiss any opinion the fans of teams that they actually follow.

I don't think that happens here at all.

I think fans of teams have the best idea about fit, direction and how a trade could impact their team. But, I think their take on value is often (and unsurprisingly) skewed in favor of their own players for a variety of reasons. Value is just one element of a trade (a major one of course) and thus their input is very helpful, especially when they explain their rationale and there is a chance to decipher between value/fit/direction/finances/etc.

I think players have different value to different teams and often players are already on the team where they are most value. It creates a disconnect in perceived value, but really the fans just have a better idea of how their team value a guy.

Cameron Payne is personally the easiest example, we know he isn't worth a guy like khris Middleton, but we also know that presti and the organization values him in a way that makes it unlikely he is traded for a player lesser than that. That means we turn down a lot of trades that seem like fair value to an outsider but it's because we know the organization values him higher than others.

[Texas Chuck]

Cameron Payne is personally the easiest example, we know he isn't worth a guy like khris Middleton, but we also know that presti and the organization values him in a way that makes it unlikely he is traded for a player lesser than that. That means we turn down a lot of trades that seem like fair value to an outsider but it's because we know the organization values him higher than others.

I think some(most) of our Thunder fans here wouldn't require a Middleton-level piece back in a Payne deal.

That said I agree he is very high on the list of players whose value to his fanbase greatly exceeds his value to posters in general. I understand most of the reasoning even if I think it gets taken way too far.

[OrlandoNed]

Elf played 1530 minutes with Evan last season and the team did worse than the 1240 minutes he spent with Dipo.

Yes, there are overlapping minutes but there should be something that is better about the time with Evan if your point is right, and there isn't.

At some point, people have to realize that Payton is the actual problem, not Oladipo or Fournier.

So you disagree that Payton will be better playing alongside a better shooter and off the ball player? You disagree that Oladipo and Payton wasn't a good fit? You're avoiding the question by just saying Payton isn't good (which you can say for EVERY PG in his age group). Do you also think another year of development won't help him?

Yeah I have been saying that man. Not avoiding anything. It's common sense that a garbage shooter needs a really good shooter next to him to pick up the slack.

Another year won't help those atrocious shooting percentages of his that much. It's going to take a minor miracle for him to be an average shooter.

[Trader_Joe]

Cameron Payne is personally the easiest example, we know he isn't worth a guy like khris Middleton, but we also know that presti and the organization values him in a way that makes it unlikely he is traded for a player lesser than that. That means we turn down a lot of trades that seem like fair value to an outsider but it's because we know the organization values him higher than others.

I think some(most) of our Thunder fans here wouldn't require a Middleton-level piece back in a Payne deal.

That said I agree he is very high on the list of players whose value to his fanbase greatly exceeds his value to posters in general. I understand most of the reasoning even if I think it gets taken way too far.

Agree.. I've never seen any Thunder fan expect KM value for Payne.
That said, I do think every team has one player in particular that they (the team/fans) value much higher than the general consensus. For OKC it appears to be Payne (thus I made the thread enjoying the challenge) and exceptions like that are interesting. But I do think there is an elevated value of most players by their fans compared to the norm. Some are more obvious than others and we are almost all guilty of it, but I do think it exits.

[spearsy23]

Cameron Payne is personally the easiest example, we know he isn't worth a guy like khris Middleton, but we also know that presti and the organization values him in a way that makes it unlikely he is traded for a player lesser than that. That means we turn down a lot of trades that seem like fair value to an outsider but it's because we know the organization values him higher than others.

I think some(most) of our Thunder fans here wouldn't require a Middleton-level piece back in a Payne deal.

That said I agree he is very high on the list of players whose value to his fanbase greatly exceeds his value to posters in general. I understand most of the reasoning even if I think it gets taken way too far.

To be fair I'm not meaning 1 to 1 swap, but on our board during laSt season it was the general consensus that including him in a bigger deal for that caliber player was the only way we'd move him. I digress though I was mostly just using him to highlight how a fan base often has more context for what organization thinks about some guys. If you aren't a fan of OKC you just dont go digging for front office quotes about a 3rd strong point guard.

[Trader_Joe]

Cameron Payne is personally the easiest example, we know he isn't worth a guy like khris Middleton, but we also know that presti and the organization values him in a way that makes it unlikely he is traded for a player lesser than that. That means we turn down a lot of trades that seem like fair value to an outsider but it's because we know the organization values him higher than others.

I think some(most) of our Thunder fans here wouldn't require a Middleton-level piece back in a Payne deal.

That said I agree he is very high on the list of players whose value to his fanbase greatly exceeds his value to posters in general. I understand most of the reasoning even if I think it gets taken way too far.

To be fair I'm not meaning 1 to 1 swap, but on our board during laSt season it was the general consensus that including him in a bigger deal for that caliber player was the only way we'd move him. I digress though I was mostly just using him to highlight how a fan base often has more context for what organization thinks about some guys. If you aren't a fan of OKC you just dont go digging for front office quotes about a 3rd strong point guard.

Curious what the quotes are.
Normally I pay no mind to FO speak (I read it of course but take it with a grain of salt unless there is something unique about it) but I'm curious as to what was said as it seems to have made an impression on the fans.

[bondom34]

I think some(most) of our Thunder fans here wouldn't require a Middleton-level piece back in a Payne deal.

That said I agree he is very high on the list of players whose value to his fanbase greatly exceeds his value to posters in general. I understand most of the reasoning even if I think it gets taken way too far.

To be fair I'm not meaning 1 to 1 swap, but on our board during laSt season it was the general consensus that including him in a bigger deal for that caliber player was the only way we'd move him. I digress though I was mostly just using him to highlight how a fan base often has more context for what organization thinks about some guys. If you aren't a fan of OKC you just dont go digging for front office quotes about a 3rd strong point guard.

Curious what the quotes are.
Normally I pay no mind to FO speak (I read it of course but take it with a grain of salt unless there is something unique about it) but I'm curious as to what was said as it seems to have made an impression on the fans.

Not sure of exact quotes, but he was a draft target for months and had a promise from Presti pretty early on in the process. He's become closer to Westbrook at the least, and Donovan speaks highly of him. He's a means more to us than you kinda guy.

[Trader_Joe]

To be fair I'm not meaning 1 to 1 swap, but on our board during laSt season it was the general consensus that including him in a bigger deal for that caliber player was the only way we'd move him. I digress though I was mostly just using him to highlight how a fan base often has more context for what organization thinks about some guys. If you aren't a fan of OKC you just dont go digging for front office quotes about a 3rd strong point guard.

Curious what the quotes are.
Normally I pay no mind to FO speak (I read it of course but take it with a grain of salt unless there is something unique about it) but I'm curious as to what was said as it seems to have made an impression on the fans.

Not sure of exact quotes, but he was a draft target for months and had a promise from Presti pretty early on in the process. He's become closer to Westbrook at the least, and Donovan speaks highly of him. He's a means more to us than you kinda guy.

Ahh thanks.
Didn't know he had a draft promise. Seems rare for someone in the lotto. Was he projected as a late first?

Also, I think the worth more to us than you thing applies to 75% of a teams players. Almost all players were targeted by a team via draft, free agency or trade, unless they were simply filler. Unless there is something extremely unique about a player (hometown guy, been with the team entire career, coach's kid, etc), I don't know if I put much stock in that label.

[bondom34]

Curious what the quotes are.
Normally I pay no mind to FO speak (I read it of course but take it with a grain of salt unless there is something unique about it) but I'm curious as to what was said as it seems to have made an impression on the fans.

Not sure of exact quotes, but he was a draft target for months and had a promise from Presti pretty early on in the process. He's become closer to Westbrook at the least, and Donovan speaks highly of him. He's a means more to us than you kinda guy.

Ahh thanks.
Didn't know he had a draft promise. Seems rare for someone in the lotto. Was he projected as a late first?

I don't remember but pretty sure he was projected around their range anyway. There were rumors he could have been taken a few picks ahead.

This was from May.

Read on Twitter

And Chad Ford a few days later:

"As for the Thunder, since late last week there's been a lot of buzz among rival GMs that the Thunder promised Cameron Payne they'd take him at 14. I don't know how much of that is smoke, but he is a great fit at 14 and talent wise he may be the best pure point guard in the draft."

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/thunder-may-have-made-a-draft-promise-to-cameron-payne-052915

[spearsy23]

I think some(most) of our Thunder fans here wouldn't require a Middleton-level piece back in a Payne deal.

That said I agree he is very high on the list of players whose value to his fanbase greatly exceeds his value to posters in general. I understand most of the reasoning even if I think it gets taken way too far.

To be fair I'm not meaning 1 to 1 swap, but on our board during laSt season it was the general consensus that including him in a bigger deal for that caliber player was the only way we'd move him. I digress though I was mostly just using him to highlight how a fan base often has more context for what organization thinks about some guys. If you aren't a fan of OKC you just dont go digging for front office quotes about a 3rd strong point guard.

Curious what the quotes are.
Normally I pay no mind to FO speak (I read it of course but take it with a grain of salt unless there is something unique about it) but I'm curious as to what was said as it seems to have made an impression on the fans.

I'd have to go digging to find exact quotes and i don't really have time our energy for that but a few relevant things with context.

Presti promised they'd pick him. By itself that's not a huge thing, but this was a team with championship aspirations and an obvious need for shooting and defense from the wing position. Booker and Johnson were expected to be picks in that range and fit obvious needs while DJ was firmly entrenched as a quality backup ( he obviously failed miserably but this was the view at the time). Presti makes those promises and keeps them, so he wanted cam badly enough to forego guys that were considered by others as better prospects at areas of need despite being a contender.

The feeling from the organization was that cam was the best PG in training camp last year. Not the best relative tto expectations, he was better than Westbrook. Again, not that big of a deal, vets dog it in camp all the time, right? Not Westbrook. After Cam assisted Novak on a game winner during the intra squad scrimmage Russ was livid. Cam flat brought it.

I'm pretty sure this comes from Smitty's time at Orlando SL, could be wrong though, but the organization felt like he was going to be Russ's replacement if he left. Meaning pre-Durant departure. So they felt comfortable that he would be able to take over for a top 5 player and continue to guide the team to contention.

Just overall they are REALLY high on the guy, and being able to watch it's obvious he just has that thing that great floor generals have. He knows where to be and how to run a team offensively.

This was way off topic and a lot of fluff. Sorry for derailing

[Trader_Joe]

To be fair I'm not meaning 1 to 1 swap, but on our board during laSt season it was the general consensus that including him in a bigger deal for that caliber player was the only way we'd move him. I digress though I was mostly just using him to highlight how a fan base often has more context for what organization thinks about some guys. If you aren't a fan of OKC you just dont go digging for front office quotes about a 3rd strong point guard.

Curious what the quotes are.
Normally I pay no mind to FO speak (I read it of course but take it with a grain of salt unless there is something unique about it) but I'm curious as to what was said as it seems to have made an impression on the fans.

I'd have to go digging to find exact quotes and i don't really have time our energy for that but a few relevant things with context.

Presti promised they'd pick him. By itself that's not a huge thing, but this was a team with championship aspirations and an obvious need for shooting and defense from the wing position. Booker and Johnson were expected to be picks in that range and fit obvious needs while DJ was firmly entrenched as a quality backup ( he obviously failed miserably but this was the view at the time). Presti makes those promises and keeps them, so he wanted cam badly enough to forego guys that were considered by others as better prospects at areas of need despite being a contender.

The feeling from the organization was that cam was the best PG in training camp last year. Not the best relative tto expectations, he was better than Westbrook. Again, not that big of a deal, vets dog it in camp all the time, right? Not Westbrook. After Cam assisted Novak on a game winner during the intra squad scrimmage Russ was livid. Cam flat brought it.

I'm pretty sure this comes from Smitty's time at Orlando SL, could be wrong though, but the organization felt like he was going to be Russ's replacement if he left. Meaning pre-Durant departure. So they felt comfortable that he would be able to take over for a top 5 player and continue to guide the team to contention.

Just overall they are REALLY high on the guy, and being able to watch it's obvious he just has that thing that great floor generals have. He knows where to be and how to run a team offensively.

This was way off topic and a lot of fluff. Sorry for derailing

Nope.. really appreciate it; I did some reading on him and got out of it that they also picked him because of the big drop off when RW is off the court. He was a senior and OKC probably felt he was best equipped to come in right away and contribute.. didn't realize he was a senior out of college either. I think seniors tend to be marginalized because of a lack of potential, but there is much said about a player being ready and not wasting years of salary/roster spots developing.

Anyway.. we should stop the Payne/OKC talk in this thread.

[Skin]

Pelicans in: CJ Watson and Nikola Vucevic

Orlando in: Jrue Holiday and Alex Ajinca


Pelicans:

Moore/Watson/Frazier
Evans/Hield/Galloway
Hill/Pondexter
Davis/Jones/Cunningham
Vucevic/Asik

The Moore signing was odd to me as I feel he fits best as a point guard playing next to a ball dominant shooting guard. Moving Holiday frees up this spot for Moore while giving the Pelicans a great young complimentary piece to Anthony Davis in the front court in Nikola Vucevic.


Magic:

Holiday/Payton/Augustin
Forunier/Meeks
Green/Henzonja
Ibaka/Gordon
Biyombo/Ajinca

The Magic offseason has been interesting. Trading for Ibaka and signing Jeff Green places blockers in the path to playing time for their young players like Henzonja and Gordon. If the Magic value making the playoffs over developing youngsters I figured, why stop there. Holiday is better than Payton, and with another peculiar off-season signing of Biyombo at center where they already had Vucevic, it appears the Magic are willing to shake things up. Trading Vuc opens up the starting role for Biyombo while providing the team an upgrade in talent at the point guard position.


I feel this trade opens up Orlando to be players at the deadline, they could shop Green's $15 mil expiring and young pieces like Payton, Henzonja and Gordon. Even without that I feel like this move ups their chances of making the playoffs in the east, which to me, their offseason moves suggest is a priority

Like the idea, but the Magic can pursue Holiday in the Summer. If he was locked in a longer deal, this would make a lot of sense.

[wise1-2]

I already explained your stat is based n a small sample size, but let me break it down for you. The stat indicates that they have a much higher ORTG than the Warriors' team did. So by your logic this line up would've propelled the Magic to a top offense. That n itself should tell you that your stat is irrelevant, but if you're not convinced lets go back to he sample size. They played 75 minutes together... Out of 3936 minutes. That is less than 2% of the total minutes, and you justified that by saying "its their 7th most used line up". That means nothing. That's a tiny sample size and a faulty analysis. Do you think Skiles is that inept that he wouldn't be able to recognize a line up that your stat indicates is elite offensively? Try to use some context. That line up has little spacing and would never work long term. Maybe for one game or two if Oladipo, Harris, ect. got hot, but there's no way in hell they'd be great offensively for a whole season.

That specific lineup was better offensively than the lineup with Fournier. Yes or no.

FIrst: Fournier fits better than VO.

Next: 2 man lineups don't work because the other guys are different.

Next: Small sample size (which is limited because you won't allow 2 man lineups which give a larger sample).

Then: It won't work over more minutes.

At some point, the burden of evidence lies in actually making a point instead of attempting to show all the evidence is wrong that goes totally against a baseless assertion.

We would all like an actual, statistically based showing that Payton was better with Fournier than Oladipo. Then we're good. And yes, it has to actually make sense.

Edit: Oh, and for comparison, GSW had 5 lineups better than that offensively. That doesn't mean a thing about how the team performed. But lineups performed better with VO than Fournier paired with Payton offensively.

All the evidence shows is your hilarious overreliance on stats. Not everything can be quantified by stats, but I'm sure if I look hard enough I can find something. For example, when Oladipo was benched, Payton's FG% jumped to 48%. Both of the stats you have are worthless. You give me the teams production with Oladipo/Payton and completely ignore the fact that Fournier was balling at SF. Those stats are irrelevant unless you think the NBA is a 2 on 2 game. The 75 minutes is a tiny sample size, and will not work over a full season. If you don't think you need spacing to win in the NBA I dont know what to tell you.


Despite many people thinking that Payton is trash and Oladipo is suddenly a great player, Oladipo held the Magic back with his inconsistencies. Either he's good offensively and bad defensively or vice versa. The Magic were at their best when Payton was playing well, not Oladipo. In their first 32 games of the season, they had were playing +0.500 ball, Oladipo was shooting just 37% FG and 27% from three. Great defensively, but offensively he was trash. Let's look at their averages in wins and losses...

Wins:
-Oladipo: 14-5-4 TS% 53
-Payton: 11.6-7-4 TS% 51

Loss:
-Oladipo: 17.5-5-4 TS%53
-Payton: 10-3.4-6 TS%45


Payton is being highly underrated in this forum like he's some cancer. I see the comparison to Rubio, and guess what? Payton outplayed him both times they played. We agree you don't have to be a great shooter to be a good PG. Well Payton has more defensive and scoring potential than Rubio. Payton can actually finish at the rim, and even though he will never be as good of a passer as Rubio he can surpass him in defense and scoring. Payton averaged 19-7.5-5.5 on 48% shooting against Rubio. It was clear Rubio couldn't deal with Payton's physicality.

[bondom34]

I already explained your stat is based n a small sample size, but let me break it down for you. The stat indicates that they have a much higher ORTG than the Warriors' team did. So by your logic this line up would've propelled the Magic to a top offense. That n itself should tell you that your stat is irrelevant, but if you're not convinced lets go back to he sample size. They played 75 minutes together... Out of 3936 minutes. That is less than 2% of the total minutes, and you justified that by saying "its their 7th most used line up". That means nothing. That's a tiny sample size and a faulty analysis. Do you think Skiles is that inept that he wouldn't be able to recognize a line up that your stat indicates is elite offensively? Try to use some context. That line up has little spacing and would never work long term. Maybe for one game or two if Oladipo, Harris, ect. got hot, but there's no way in hell they'd be great offensively for a whole season.

That specific lineup was better offensively than the lineup with Fournier. Yes or no.

FIrst: Fournier fits better than VO.

Next: 2 man lineups don't work because the other guys are different.

Next: Small sample size (which is limited because you won't allow 2 man lineups which give a larger sample).

Then: It won't work over more minutes.

At some point, the burden of evidence lies in actually making a point instead of attempting to show all the evidence is wrong that goes totally against a baseless assertion.

We would all like an actual, statistically based showing that Payton was better with Fournier than Oladipo. Then we're good. And yes, it has to actually make sense.

Edit: Oh, and for comparison, GSW had 5 lineups better than that offensively. That doesn't mean a thing about how the team performed. But lineups performed better with VO than Fournier paired with Payton offensively.

All the evidence shows is your hilarious overreliance on stats. Not everything can be quantified by stats, but I'm sure if I look hard enough I can find something. For example, when Oladipo was benched, Payton's FG% jumped to 48%. Both of the stats you have are worthless. You give me the teams production with Oladipo/Payton and completely ignore the fact that Fournier was balling at SF. Those stats are irrelevant unless you think the NBA is a 2 on 2 game. The 75 minutes is a tiny sample size, and will not work over a full season. If you don't think you need spacing to win in the NBA I dont know what to tell you.


Despite many people thinking that Payton is trash and Oladipo is suddenly a great player, Oladipo held the Magic back with his inconsistencies. Either he's good offensively and bad defensively or vice versa. The Magic were at their best when Payton was playing well, not Oladipo. In their first 32 games of the season, they had were playing +0.500 ball, Oladipo was shooting just 37% FG and 27% from three. Great defensively, but offensively he was trash. Let's look at their averages in wins and losses...

Wins:
-Oladipo: 14-5-4 TS% 53
-Payton: 11.6-7-4 TS% 51

Loss:
-Oladipo: 17.5-5-4 TS%53
-Payton: 10-3.4-6 TS%45


Payton is being highly underrated in this forum like he's some cancer. I see the comparison to Rubio, and guess what? Payton outplayed him both times they played. We agree you don't have to be a great shooter to be a good PG. Well Payton has more defensive and scoring potential than Rubio. Payton can actually finish at the rim, and even though he will never be as good of a passer as Rubio he can surpass him in defense and scoring. Payton averaged 19-7.5-5.5 on 48% shooting against Rubio. It was clear Rubio couldn't deal with Payton's physicality.

So you've shown nothingwith stats and now say Payton is better than Rubio.

Yeah,I think literally 100 percent of everyone will disagree w/ you. Wow that's amazing.

[wise1-2]

That specific lineup was better offensively than the lineup with Fournier. Yes or no.

FIrst: Fournier fits better than VO.

Next: 2 man lineups don't work because the other guys are different.

Next: Small sample size (which is limited because you won't allow 2 man lineups which give a larger sample).

Then: It won't work over more minutes.

At some point, the burden of evidence lies in actually making a point instead of attempting to show all the evidence is wrong that goes totally against a baseless assertion.

We would all like an actual, statistically based showing that Payton was better with Fournier than Oladipo. Then we're good. And yes, it has to actually make sense.

Edit: Oh, and for comparison, GSW had 5 lineups better than that offensively. That doesn't mean a thing about how the team performed. But lineups performed better with VO than Fournier paired with Payton offensively.

All the evidence shows is your hilarious overreliance on stats. Not everything can be quantified by stats, but I'm sure if I look hard enough I can find something. For example, when Oladipo was benched, Payton's FG% jumped to 48%. Both of the stats you have are worthless. You give me the teams production with Oladipo/Payton and completely ignore the fact that Fournier was balling at SF. Those stats are irrelevant unless you think the NBA is a 2 on 2 game. The 75 minutes is a tiny sample size, and will not work over a full season. If you don't think you need spacing to win in the NBA I dont know what to tell you.


Despite many people thinking that Payton is trash and Oladipo is suddenly a great player, Oladipo held the Magic back with his inconsistencies. Either he's good offensively and bad defensively or vice versa. The Magic were at their best when Payton was playing well, not Oladipo. In their first 32 games of the season, they had were playing +0.500 ball, Oladipo was shooting just 37% FG and 27% from three. Great defensively, but offensively he was trash. Let's look at their averages in wins and losses...

Wins:
-Oladipo: 14-5-4 TS% 53
-Payton: 11.6-7-4 TS% 51

Loss:
-Oladipo: 17.5-5-4 TS%53
-Payton: 10-3.4-6 TS%45


Payton is being highly underrated in this forum like he's some cancer. I see the comparison to Rubio, and guess what? Payton outplayed him both times they played. We agree you don't have to be a great shooter to be a good PG. Well Payton has more defensive and scoring potential than Rubio. Payton can actually finish at the rim, and even though he will never be as good of a passer as Rubio he can surpass him in defense and scoring. Payton averaged 19-7.5-5.5 on 48% shooting against Rubio. It was clear Rubio couldn't deal with Payton's physicality.

So you've shown nothingwith stats and now say Payton is better than Rubio.

Yeah,I think literally 100 percent of everyone will disagree w/ you. Wow that's amazing.

Lmao, don't put words in my mouth. I never said Payton is better than Rubio. I said he outplayed him when they matched up. Nice try. I also did post stats.

[bondom34]

Well that's really great then. And meaningless.

[wise1-2]

Well that's really great then. And meaningless.

Just because you guys think Payton isn't a starter, doesn't mean anything to me. I dont know why I have to take it as a given that he will never be a starter if the kid can play. He struggles like the vast majority of young PGs, but you guys will see soon enough why the Magic have faith in him.

[wise1-2]

Orlando Magic basketball! "Skiles was inept..... No, he was great......No, he was inept....."

who called him great?

Let him be. He's so lost at this point he's irrelevant to this discussion. No one called him great or inept. He was mediocre. He hurt in some areas and helped in others.

[wise1-2]

At some point, people have to realize that Payton is the actual problem, not Oladipo or Fournier.

So you disagree that Payton will be better playing alongside a better shooter and off the ball player? You disagree that Oladipo and Payton wasn't a good fit? You're avoiding the question by just saying Payton isn't good (which you can say for EVERY PG in his age group). Do you also think another year of development won't help him?

Yeah I have been saying that man. Not avoiding anything. It's common sense that a garbage shooter needs a really good shooter next to him to pick up the slack.

Another year won't help those atrocious shooting percentages of his that much. It's going to take a minor miracle for him to be an average shooter.

Well people here are arguing that Payton is worse with Fournier than Oladipo. Apparently all common sense goes out the window when it comes to a stat based on a tiny sample size.

Check my previous post on why I think Payton gets trashed too much. Like I said the team was at its best when Payton, not Oladipo was at his best, and you agree that Fournier is a better fit next to Payton...

[Skin]

There are no signs that Payton can turn it around as a shooter. If he does, it'll take years. I'm fully looking ahead at the PGs available in the draft, FA and trade. Holiday is among my favorite PG options in FA.

That said, Payton does have incredible moments and he has some other skills that marvel me. Plus, I love his hair. I want him to succeed, but I'm more reserved on that front.