pcbothwel wrote:I was thinking about a hypothetical regarding EG over the next year. For those that think rate him as a 1 or 2, what would need to happen (realistically) for you to think of him as mediocre (5/6)?
I.E.
- All key players would have to stay mostly healthy
- Beal taking the leap to top 10 SG
- Tomas proving to be spot starter and elite 6th man
- Porter continue to make strides
- Wall providing same production, but higher efficiency due to previous 3 points about improvements with Beal, Tomas, and Otto.
This would give him a grade of about 4, maybe 5. Then if:
- Morris proves to be closer to 2013/14 version of himself with mediocre efficiency, but great defense and clutch scoring.
- Mahinmi plays 20 Mpg with efficient offense and elite defense
- Nicholson becomes great bench scorer at the 4 and Mismatch as small ball 5 that hits 3's at 35% rate
That would push him to a 5, maybe 6. Then of course the wild card of Oubre could help or hurt.
Thoughts?
Huh?
Ernie has a 13 year tenure to be considered. He's been just absolutely awful. He'd get the bottom grade if there didn't have to be a lower circle in Hell for Billy King. And that's no matter what happens this year.
I also think your "need to happen" points are mostly irrelevant. Beal was the right pick in 2012, even if he doesn't work out at all. Porter was the right pick in 2013, and I certainly do expect him to continue improving. Wall was the right pick in 2010; what he does next year has no bearing on Ernie's grade. As to Tomas proving to be an "elite 6th man" in his rookie year -- well, sure, that would make a terrible draft decision look better. On its own it might push him 1/10th of a point in grade? But... come on, that's not going to happen. So he stays at 2.
As to the subsequent 3: Morris was a below-average PF in his best year, 2013-14. Getting "closer" to that wouldn't begin to make him worth a lottery pick! Especially given Phoenix being basically unable to trade him anywhere all season no matter how hard they tried. Mahinmi: I expect him to play very well. 20 minutes a game would be under 1700 minutes on the season. For $16m. That is supposed to push Ernie up??
As to Nicholson, don't you think you might be asking a lot of a guy who has been bad his whole career and managed to earn 823 minutes with a 35-win team last year, and then they didn't extend a qualifying offer to him? If he becomes a "great bench scorer" or anything else good it'll be an NBA miracle -- and you'll have trouble convincing me that Ernie saw it coming. Still, sure, another .1
So if on average he's 2.67 at the moment, your dream scenario pushes him all the way up to 2.87. In short, Ernie is a bum. He's a time-server who is an expert manager of his boss. Anyone who's spent much time in business has had plenty of encounters w/ his type.