Around the MLB 2018

[Skin Blues]

If Price is worth his $30 million this season then we should probably reevaluate the system we use to figure out value. If not then Estrada and Happ have been worth $120 million.

The values that fan graphs uses has always been broken.

He's been worth 2.2 RA9-WAR. That's based on pure ERA, not even factoring in his bad luck, he has been worth $18M so far in 2/3 of a season. Given any kind of reasonable finish to the year he will earn another $12M, and that's not even including his value in the playoffs. That has nothing to do with Fangraphs, he's just a really good pitcher who goes deep into games and throws a ton of quality innings. People in here have a strange disconnect from reality. I get the "they're Red Sox so everything they do sux" idea, but it just makes no sense to delude yourself.

[Santoki]

If Price is worth his $30 million this season then we should probably reevaluate the system we use to figure out value. If not then Estrada and Happ have been worth $120 million.

The values that fan graphs uses has always been broken.

He's been worth 2.2 RA9-WAR. That's based on pure ERA, not even factoring in his bad luck, he has been worth $18M so far in 2/3 of a season. Given any kind of reasonable finish to the year he will earn another $12M, and that's not even including his value in the playoffs. That has nothing to do with Fangraphs, he's just a really good pitcher who goes deep into games and throws a ton of quality innings. People in here have a strange disconnect from reality. I get the "they're Red Sox so everything they do sux" idea, but it just makes no sense to delude yourself.

I don't think coming to the conclusion that David Price has pitched anywhere near his $30 million value is deluding oneself but to each his own. I suppose I just expect the 2nd highest paid pitcher in baseball to not have a league average ERA and WHIP near 1.3 (regardless of luck).

[Skin Blues]

The values that fan graphs uses has always been broken.

He's been worth 2.2 RA9-WAR. That's based on pure ERA, not even factoring in his bad luck, he has been worth $18M so far in 2/3 of a season. Given any kind of reasonable finish to the year he will earn another $12M, and that's not even including his value in the playoffs. That has nothing to do with Fangraphs, he's just a really good pitcher who goes deep into games and throws a ton of quality innings. People in here have a strange disconnect from reality. I get the "they're Red Sox so everything they do sux" idea, but it just makes no sense to delude yourself.

I don't think coming to the conclusion that David Price has pitched anywhere near his $30 million value is deluding oneself but to each his own. I suppose I just expect the 2nd highest paid pitcher in baseball to not have a league average ERA and WHIP near 1.3 (regardless of luck).

You don't expect him to have a league average ERA (albeit in a far above league average innings total), but just because he does, doesn't mean he isn't extremely valuable. He was worth $57M last year, not even including the playoffs. He had quite a bit of ground to give up to still be worth $30M. And by all accounts, he's still every bit as good as he was last year. I don't think people realize how valuable the top pitchers are. Clayton Kershaw has been worth $44M this season, and played less than half of a season.

[The_Hater]

He's been worth 2.2 RA9-WAR. That's based on pure ERA, not even factoring in his bad luck, he has been worth $18M so far in 2/3 of a season. Given any kind of reasonable finish to the year he will earn another $12M, and that's not even including his value in the playoffs. That has nothing to do with Fangraphs, he's just a really good pitcher who goes deep into games and throws a ton of quality innings. People in here have a strange disconnect from reality. I get the "they're Red Sox so everything they do sux" idea, but it just makes no sense to delude yourself.

I don't think coming to the conclusion that David Price has pitched anywhere near his $30 million value is deluding oneself but to each his own. I suppose I just expect the 2nd highest paid pitcher in baseball to not have a league average ERA and WHIP near 1.3 (regardless of luck).

You don't expect him to have a league average ERA (albeit in a far above league average innings total), but just because he does, doesn't mean he isn't extremely valuable. He was worth $57M last year, not even including the playoffs. He had quite a bit of ground to give up to still be worth $30M. And by all accounts, he's still every bit as good as he was last year. I don't think people realize how valuable the top pitchers are. Clayton Kershaw has been worth $44M this season, and played less than half of a season.

By all accounts? Even the values you're using in your posts don't agree with that conclusion.

[Skin Blues]

I don't think coming to the conclusion that David Price has pitched anywhere near his $30 million value is deluding oneself but to each his own. I suppose I just expect the 2nd highest paid pitcher in baseball to not have a league average ERA and WHIP near 1.3 (regardless of luck).

You don't expect him to have a league average ERA (albeit in a far above league average innings total), but just because he does, doesn't mean he isn't extremely valuable. He was worth $57M last year, not even including the playoffs. He had quite a bit of ground to give up to still be worth $30M. And by all accounts, he's still every bit as good as he was last year. I don't think people realize how valuable the top pitchers are. Clayton Kershaw has been worth $44M this season, and played less than half of a season.

By all accounts? Even the values you're using in your posts don't agree with that conclusion.

I'm talking about actual pitching skill, which is repeatable, not looking at ERA in tiny samples. His K% & BB% are virtually identical, his GB% is actually higher. He's not a worse pitcher just because of a spike in HR/FB rate which is for all intents and purposes random, as is BABIP and LOB%. In actual repeatable pitching skills, he is the same pitcher as last year. His SIERA is 0.20 points higher, xFIP is 0.05 points higher, and ERA is 1.89 points higher. Guess which 2 of those 3 are far and away the best predictors of true talent in a sample this small, and which 1 of those 3 indicates that Kyle Hendricks is the best healthy pitcher in baseball. I know this place loves to overreact to small samples, but please, this is one of the elite pitchers in the game.

[The_Hater]

You don't expect him to have a league average ERA (albeit in a far above league average innings total), but just because he does, doesn't mean he isn't extremely valuable. He was worth $57M last year, not even including the playoffs. He had quite a bit of ground to give up to still be worth $30M. And by all accounts, he's still every bit as good as he was last year. I don't think people realize how valuable the top pitchers are. Clayton Kershaw has been worth $44M this season, and played less than half of a season.

By all accounts? Even the values you're using in your posts don't agree with that conclusion.

I'm talking about actual pitching skill, which is repeatable, not looking at ERA in tiny samples. His K% & BB% are virtually identical, his GB% is actually higher. He's not a worse pitcher just because of a spike in HR/FB rate which is for all intents and purposes random, as is BABIP and LOB%. In actual repeatable pitching skills, he is the same pitcher as last year. His SIERA is 0.20 points higher, xFIP is 0.05 points higher, and ERA is 1.89 points higher. Guess which 2 of those 3 are far and away the best predictors of true talent in a sample this small, and which 1 of those 3 indicates that Kyle Hendricks is the best healthy pitcher in baseball. I know this place loves to overreact to small samples, but please, this is one of the elite pitchers in the game.

xFIP is nice but and he has had some bad luck and some poor pitching with runners on base but his velocity rate is down and his HR and BB rates are up. His HR/FB rate is almost double last season. His xFIP is the highest it's been since 2011 when he was closer to average than elite. Perhaps it's a blip or perhaps there are a lot of signs pointing towards regression here.

[Skin Blues]

By all accounts? Even the values you're using in your posts don't agree with that conclusion.

I'm talking about actual pitching skill, which is repeatable, not looking at ERA in tiny samples. His K% & BB% are virtually identical, his GB% is actually higher. He's not a worse pitcher just because of a spike in HR/FB rate which is for all intents and purposes random, as is BABIP and LOB%. In actual repeatable pitching skills, he is the same pitcher as last year. His SIERA is 0.20 points higher, xFIP is 0.05 points higher, and ERA is 1.89 points higher. Guess which 2 of those 3 are far and away the best predictors of true talent in a sample this small, and which 1 of those 3 indicates that Kyle Hendricks is the best healthy pitcher in baseball. I know this place loves to overreact to small samples, but please, this is one of the elite pitchers in the game.

xFIP is nice but and he has had some bad luck and some poor pitching with runners on base but his velocity rate is down and his HR and BB rates are up. His HR/FB rate is almost double last season. His xFIP is the highest it's been since 2011 when he was closer to average than elite. Perhaps it's a blip or perhaps there are a lot of signs pointing towards regression here.

His BB-rate went from 5.5% to 5.3%. Negligible difference. HR rate is effectively random when you are looking at small sample sizes. Price's 2015 and 2016 performance is just about as close to identical as you can get. Velocity was down the first couple months but since then it's back up to pretty much the same as it was this time last year.

[The_Hater]

I'm talking about actual pitching skill, which is repeatable, not looking at ERA in tiny samples. His K% & BB% are virtually identical, his GB% is actually higher. He's not a worse pitcher just because of a spike in HR/FB rate which is for all intents and purposes random, as is BABIP and LOB%. In actual repeatable pitching skills, he is the same pitcher as last year. His SIERA is 0.20 points higher, xFIP is 0.05 points higher, and ERA is 1.89 points higher. Guess which 2 of those 3 are far and away the best predictors of true talent in a sample this small, and which 1 of those 3 indicates that Kyle Hendricks is the best healthy pitcher in baseball. I know this place loves to overreact to small samples, but please, this is one of the elite pitchers in the game.

xFIP is nice but and he has had some bad luck and some poor pitching with runners on base but his velocity rate is down and his HR and BB rates are up. His HR/FB rate is almost double last season. His xFIP is the highest it's been since 2011 when he was closer to average than elite. Perhaps it's a blip or perhaps there are a lot of signs pointing towards regression here.

His BB-rate went from 5.5% to 5.3%. Negligible difference. HR rate is effectively random when you are looking at small sample sizes. Price's 2015 and 2016 performance is just about as close to identical as you can get. Velocity was down the first couple months but since then it's back up to pretty much the same as it was this time last year.

Time will tell. I believe that when every single measure is trending the wrong way that it's likely a sign of regression. Perhaps he's just being hurt by his ballpark more than anything else. On the flip side, perhaps I'm just hoping things are trending this way.

[EastBayBoy]

Reports say that Carlos Gomez is going to be designated for assignment.

[SharoneWright]

bwaahahaha.. as a 2nd baseman, thats maybe the worst thing I've ever seen...

[s e n s i]

the trash birds collect their third straight one-run loss to the A's. jays a full game clear of them sh*theads.

[Boogie!]

Reports say that Carlos Gomez is going to be designated for assignment.

with bautista and pillar injuries do we pick him up? combined with saunders now struggling at the plate, itll give us a better defensive presence in the outfield and more versatility.

[EastBayBoy]

Reports say that Carlos Gomez is going to be designated for assignment.

with bautista and pillar injuries do we pick him up? combined with saunders now struggling at the plate, itll give us a better defensive presence in the outfield and more versatility.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-try-to-salvage-carlos-gomez/

[LLJ]

What do you all think about the Yankees' treatment of ARod? Seems like they've really got something against him by how unceremoniously they are showing him out.

[BigLeagueChew]

What do you all think about the Yankees' treatment of ARod? Seems like they've really got something against him by how unceremoniously they are showing him out.

I'd sit anyone hitting under .600 OPS when you're trying to win, Girardi is a good manager.

[bringbackhoffa]

What do you all think about the Yankees' treatment of ARod? Seems like they've really got something against him by how unceremoniously they are showing him out.

I'd sit anyone hitting under .600 OPS when you're trying to win, Girardi is a good manager.

what about Jeter..he sucked his last year..

[LLJ]

What do you all think about the Yankees' treatment of ARod? Seems like they've really got something against him by how unceremoniously they are showing him out.

I'd sit anyone hitting under .600 OPS when you're trying to win, Girardi is a good manager.

I realize managers always manage to win, but the Yankees aren't exactly in playoff contention right now. Not that I like Arod or want to defend him. It just feels like they're forcing him out on bad terms here.

[vaff87]

Yeah, the difference in how they're treating A-Rod compared to Jeter, is striking.

[BigLeagueChew]

I guess if you look at it from outside stats perspective, Jeter has been their leader for 20 years+ with very little non sense off field, they decided to live and die with Jeter and Riviera etc until they were done but they don't feel they have as much reason for ARod.

But as far as stats go, yes Jeter struggled his last 2 years through a few injuries just like Arod has gone through his share of suspensions and injuries himself.

Arod ranks 2nd last among DH in fWAr right now at -1.2. Jeter was near the bottom as well but not that far off from being average fwar among shortstops, in 2014 Jeter's fWar was -0.1. Arod has been worse and he's only DH'ing not even playing in the field.

[The_Hater]

What do you all think about the Yankees' treatment of ARod? Seems like they've really got something against him by how unceremoniously they are showing him out.

Well the Yanks did try to VOID his contract when he was last suspended. It's been an acrimonious relationship for quite some time now.