Official East Conference Prediction Thread - updated 10/25/16

[jc23]

Who's the better team this season, Knicks or Bulls?

if everything goes perfect for both teams i think the knicks are better, i question their depth but that starting 5 is much more balanced. Everything will not go perfect for these teams though.

[lilswift01]

If healthy Knicks.

[ken6199]

So, we are having a lot more votes for the East conference ranking. Among all predictions, I've seen everything - Brookland, Celts, Dets, obsession of adding LOLs next to PHI/BKN, pretty much all fans voted their own teams into playoff, except that one Miami guy ranked Heat at #15, you can only imagine what he has to go through.

Of course, we have quite a few ORD airports (supposed to be ORL).

Anyhow, here is the results updated till 8/1/2016 0:00am.


Original document:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzaygCX5b1zHRmZrNFRyTjJHRjQ

[ken6199]

Haven't quite finished the analysis work on East conference predictions like I did with West.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1462460&start=180#p48944704

Any quick guess which team from East has the highest variance?

My vote: New York, followed by one of Chicago/Miami.

Don't know if you did this but I edited like 3 times lol.

I'd say NY or Chicago is really variable.

Self-quote for truth.

NYK 7.02
CHI 6.92
CHA 6.70
MIL 5.40
MIA 5.31

That pack is all over the place... and you know which two teams have by far the highest variance n the West?

Spoiler:

[Statlanta]

So, we are having a lot more votes for the East conference ranking. Among all predictions, I've seen everything - Brookland, Celts, Dets, obsession of adding LOLs next to PHI/BKN, pretty much all fans voted their own teams into playoff, except that one Miami guy ranked Heat at #15, you can only imagine what he has to go through.

Of course, we have quite a few ORD airports (supposed to be ORL).

Anyhow, here is the results updated till 8/1/2016 0:00am.


Original document:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzaygCX5b1zHRmZrNFRyTjJHRjQ

I think your data shows how much parity there is in talent level for the teams that are not contenders. With the amount of roster turnover everywhere it seems easy to spot the homer picks

[ken6199]

I think your data shows how much parity there is in talent level for the teams that are not contenders. With the amount of roster turnover everywhere it seems easy to spot the homer picks

This is definitely true for East, I mean, more true. Five teams between #7 and #11 are within 1.0 of ranking difference, all with pretty high variance between 5.0 and 7.0 (note, West only has two above 5.0 variance teams, OKC and HOU). This is very telling. It seems most of us believe there will be a close battle within 3-4 2nd tier teams in the East, and even a closer one for the 3rd tier team for the final couple of playoff spots.

I am also looking into the variance closely, or standard deviation, same thing. I hope there is a way to filter out all votes cast by own fans to make it more neutral, because you know those variance could be very well stretched up by homerism, unfortunately not all voters here have team logos on them so that filtering would be impossible to be accurate. This is as close as we can get.

NYK and CHI stand out as the most uncertain teams by far which is what we all land on - glad to see that. Good bet due to their newly assembled team and unknown chemistry and shaky health.

[molepharmer]

...NYK and CHI stand out as the most uncertain teams by far which is what we all land on - glad to see that. Good bet due to their newly assembled team and unknown chemistry and shaky health.

Looking at the rankings of NYK and CHI, those two high variances are profiled in sort of different ways. Based upon % of total team votes for a specific ranking:

CHI - got 24% of their votes at the 8th ranked; the next highest was 11% of votes cast for 5th and 11th. So 8th was very prominent.

NYK - got 11% of their votes at 7th, 16% at 8th, 11% at 9th, 11% at 10, 15% at 11 and 15% at 12th ranked. So 11-16% of their votes between each of the 7th thru 12th ranks.

[76ciology]

Do you guys think Hornets will make the play-offs?

They lost 3 net positive players on the court with Lin, Lee and Al J. Then you have two non-playoff teams in Knicks and Bulls that had pretty big upgrades. Vegas had them with the third worst chance in winning the east. Magic is also making a strong push (ownership + roster upgrade)for the play-offs.

[ajones9219]

Cleveland
Boston
Toronto
Charlotte
Indy
Detroit
Atlanta
Washington or NYK

[basketballRob]

Cleveland
Toronto
Orlando
Boston
Atlanta
Detroit
Charlotte
Indiana

[ajones9219]

Cleveland
Toronto
Orlando
Boston
Atlanta
Detroit
Charlotte
Indiana

Damn man. what did Indiana ever do to you? they are gonna get worse from least season after adding Teague?

[nyk97]

Cleveland
Toronto
Orlando
Boston
Atlanta
Detroit
Charlotte
Indiana

[basketballRob]

Cleveland
Toronto
Orlando
Boston
Atlanta
Detroit
Charlotte
Indiana

Damn man. what did Indiana ever do to you? they are gonna get worse from least season after adding Teague?

I think Indiana takes a step back defensively.

[ajones9219]

Cleveland
Toronto
Orlando
Boston
Atlanta
Detroit
Charlotte
Indiana

Damn man. what did Indiana ever do to you? they are gonna get worse from least season after adding Teague?

I think Indiana takes a step back defensively.

I agree with you there. I think they will still be a bit better in record but I respect that opinion. They replaced some good defenders with some bad ones so I can't really argue that point lol

[Mystical Apples]

Do you guys think Hornets will make the play-offs?

They lost 3 net positive players on the court with Lin, Lee and Al J. Then you have two non-playoff teams in Knicks and Bulls that had pretty big upgrades. Vegas had them with the third worst chance in winning the east. Magic is also making a strong push (ownership + roster upgrade)for the play-offs.

Full disclosure I follow the Hornets. The 3 players "lost" misses that Charlotte also ditched a 4th - starter PJ Hairston and his 938 sub-replacement level minutes - and adds their best player MKG. Lee was a solid piece but not retaining him was understandable given age and MKG's return. Jefferson and Lin's impact, however, is exaggerated.

Jefferson was a backup and arguably Charlotte's 3rd best center. And not sure when Lin's perceived value decoupled from the reality of a decent bench player who struggles with ball security and shooting. In 2015-16 with Jefferson/Hairston/Lin and Lee "OFF" they were +.035 Points Per Possession (nbawowy) which was ahead of the Hawks (+.029), Heat (+.019), Pacers (+.016), and Detroit (+.007)...and again, without MKG.

For what it's worth here are the compiled Wins Above Replacement Projections (WARP) from Fivethirtyeight for all 15 Eastern Conference teams. Based upon WARP the Hornets starters rank 2nd in the EC and 7th overall (Warriors, Cavs, Thunder, Jazz, Clippers, Rockets). Their bench is 4th for both 9 and 10-man rotations (if Bosh doesn't play it ranks 3rd). Cleveland's starters have the best WARP but Toronto, Boston and Charlotte are 2-4 for starters and 1-3/4 in benches. IMO Boston or Toronto's depth will push Cleveland for the #1 seed.

* I assigned MKG a WARP of 4.2 which was his 2016-17 projection before last year's injury. If he plays > 70 games he'll smoke 4.2 (upper band of 9.5). Miami's WARP is with Bosh.

* The column "WARP Upper Band 90% > 5.0" is how many players would have WARP's > 5.0 if they hit the upper 90% confidence band.

* Current/former Hornets 2016-17 WARPS in order: Kemba, Batum, MKG, Williams, Zeller, Kaminsky, Lamb, Hawes tied with Lee, Lin, Jefferson, Hibbert, Sessions, Belinelli, Hairston



http://nbawowy.com/#/shooting
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jeremy-lin/

[76ciology]

Do you guys think Hornets will make the play-offs?

They lost 3 net positive players on the court with Lin, Lee and Al J. Then you have two non-playoff teams in Knicks and Bulls that had pretty big upgrades. Vegas had them with the third worst chance in winning the east. Magic is also making a strong push (ownership + roster upgrade)for the play-offs.

Full disclosure I follow the Hornets. The 3 players "lost" misses that Charlotte also ditched a 4th - starter PJ Hairston and his 938 sub-replacement level minutes - and adds their best player MKG. Lee was a solid piece but not retaining him was understandable given age and MKG's return. Jefferson and Lin's impact, however, is exaggerated.

Jefferson was a backup and arguably Charlotte's 3rd best center. And not sure when Lin's perceived value decoupled from the reality of a decent bench player who struggles with ball security and shooting. In 2015-16 with Jefferson/Hairston/Lin and Lee "OFF" they were +.035 Points Per Possession (nbawowy) which was ahead of the Hawks (+.029), Heat (+.019), Pacers (+.016), and Detroit (+.007)...and again, without MKG.

For what it's worth here are the compiled Wins Above Replacement Projections (WARP) from Fivethirtyeight for all 15 Eastern Conference teams. Based upon WARP the Hornets starters rank 2nd in the EC and 7th overall (Warriors, Cavs, Thunder, Jazz, Clippers, Rockets). Their bench is 4th for both 9 and 10-man rotations (if Bosh doesn't play it ranks 3rd). Cleveland's starters have the best WARP but Toronto, Boston and Charlotte are 2-4 for starters and 1-3/4 in benches. IMO Boston or Toronto's depth will push Cleveland for the #1 seed.

* I assigned MKG a WARP of 4.2 which was his 2016-17 projection before last year's injury. If he plays > 70 games he'll smoke 4.2 (upper band of 9.5). Miami's WARP is with Bosh.

* The column "WARP Upper Band 90% > 5.0" is how many players would have WARP's > 5.0 if they hit the upper 90% confidence band.

* Current/former Hornets 2016-17 WARPS in order: Kemba, Batum, MKG, Williams, Zeller, Kaminsky, Lamb, Hawes tied with Lee, Lin, Jefferson, Hibbert, Sessions, Belinelli, Hairston



http://nbawowy.com/#/shooting
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jeremy-lin/

May I ask how did you get MKG's WARP to be 4.2? He's projected to only have 1.4
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/michael-kidd-gilchrist/

I just don't see how a team with Kemba, Batum, Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams and a group of rotational players and scrubs (as per 538's melo) are better than Pistons, Wizards, Bucks, Knicks, Pacers, Hawks and Heat (considering healthy bosh). I just think that your angle might be too bias with the stats, although I wouldn't doubt you on that (a heavy stats evaluation angle) regard since you seem to have thoroughly looked at it.

[Mystical Apples]

Yeah the model is obviously projecting an injury riddled season. If you click on "Last season's projections" it's 4.2 for this coming year. Even without MKG Charlotte's starting group is projected 4th but with a thinner bench closer to 8th or 9th. I havent allocated minutes for a wins projection but without MKG guessing they'd still be around 43-45 wins in part from their versatility.

I also disagree with the popular notion the East got better, maybe less flotsam besides Brooklyn but definitely not better after the top 4-5 teams. I have Toronto finishing 2nd, Boston 3rd, and Charlotte 4th. Alanta's WARP is a little misleading and Im confident they'll acquire another point guard so I have them 5th. The Bulls 6th with the Knicks, Pistons, and Miami if Bosh plays competing for the final spots.

And I have no idea what people see in the Pacers.

[Mystical Apples]

Charlotte has multiple 2-way, 2-position players who can shoot meaning they'll always find a way to get their best players on the court compared to teams with heavily duplicated WARPS or players who don't fit.

For example, Chicago will almost never play "their 5 best." Or Milwaukee who can't play Henson and Monroe together, or MCW + Jabari + Giannnis which means they'll have 5-7 WARP chilling on the bench while Teletovic and Delly play.

And I think you'd be surprised how rapidly depth deteriorates around 7-8 for most teams. Toronto is the deepest team but even the Celtics drop off a cliff around 9. Charlotte goes 8 deep with WARPS > 1 and 7 deep above 1.5 of mostly young players who can eat minutes at multiple positions.

[mcmurphy]

1 CLE
2 BOS
3 TOR
4 ATL
5 DET
6 IND
7 CHI
8 MIL

ORL
NYK
MIA
WAS
CHA
PH
BKN

[r1terrell23]

1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Pacers
5. Bulls
6. Knicks
7. Hornets
8. Pistons


9. Wizards
10. Hawks
11. Bucks