Utah Jazz early season in review (Quarter-pole updates start pg 3!)

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Grade the Utah Jazz offseason

A+
9
24%
A
13
35%
A-
9
24%
B+
2
5%
B
2
5%
B-
0
No votes
C+
1
3%
C
1
3%
D
0
No votes
F
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 37

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Utah Jazz early season in review (Quarter-pole updates start pg 3!) 

Post#1 » by HartfordWhalers » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:27 pm

Utah Offseason Review

HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review

Key Losses:
Trevor Booker

I know. I just called Booker a key loss. But he was 5th in minutes played. Granted Trey Burke was only a little more than 250 minutes less so maybe thats a bad reason. Still Booker average a neat even 10/10 per 36 minutes and he was 5th on the team in VORP. He may not be a key cog, but he is a good cog.

Losses:
Trey Burke
Tibor Pleiss

Trey Burke on the other hand is addition by subtraction. That trade up for him looks horrific in hindsight, but getting Gobert with a 2nd rounder and cash cancels any concept of how bad it might have been. And is a stark reminder of how much the draft is a crapshoot -- after all it is teh same team that is finding the value guy as finding the bust.

Draft:
#12 traded
#42 traded
#52 Joel Bolomboy (signed)
#55 Marcus Paige (traded for and unsigned)
#60 Tyrone Wallace (unsigned)

Bolomboy sneaks into the roster! That said, I expect he won't play much at all.

Trades:
#12 to Atlanta for George Hill (with Indiana)
#42 for #55 and cash from Nets
Trey Burke for 2021 Washington 2nd
Oliver Hanlan's rights for Boris Diaw and 2022 SAS 2nd
Pleiss, cash, best and worst of 2017 2nds (Det, GS NYK, Utah) for Marshall (cut)

I love the trade for George Hill. Perfect direction for the franchise, with Hayward approaching free agency (and Gobert the restricted version), the time is ripe for Utah to make the playoffs in style. With a competent pg and not just a top defense and the slowest pace in the league (pace 30th of 30th per bbref, so thats not hyperbole). And I love the fit. Hill can run the point, let Hayward create some, and play off ball if Exum ever approaches what only Australia and Utah fans are still hoping. Oh, and I love the value. At #12 I saw nothing better.

So, direction, fit, and value all nailed? Give this guy a GM of the year runner up.

Selling #42 was fine. I would have stashed Isaia Cordinier, but the money is a real thing. And Cordinier looked 2 years away from 2 years away in summer league, so what do I know? This is pretty much the only team I didn't say why not take Jackson, but I don't think you can have that and Exum as two raw backups and be a 50 win team.

Trey Burke has been horrible but that still felt cheap getting rid of him. And it is still addition by subtraction. I do wish Utah had kept Hanlan's rights, I could see those being better than the 2022 SAS 2nd. But Diaw fits Utah's thing. Judging the Pleiss trade depends on what Utah does with the money, as is it feels a nudge expensive but not bad.

Free Agency:
Joe Johnson 2/$21.5m
Quin Snyder extension (Head coach)
Joel Bolomboy 3/$2.55m (1m gtd)

I love the Joe Johnson signing. Short term enough not to sink the team's finances, but good enough in teh interim to help.

I love love Quin. That said, seeing Utah's expected win loss by SRS was 46 last season makes me wonder why it is so much higher (+6) than their wins.
10 wins by 5 or less versus 17 losses by 5 or less.
18 wins by 10 or less versus 31 losses by 10 or less.
And the cherry picked the break point: 10 wins by 8 or less versus 24 losses by 8 or less.

Utah lost a lot more close games than they won, and that will need to change. Is it the product of no legit pg. The product of no star closer? The product of bad coaching? I'm hoping for Utah the pg situation fixes it mostly, but the star closer cannot be ruled out.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto
SG: Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Christapher Johnson
SF: Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles
PF: Derrick Favors, Trey Lyles, Joel Bolomboy
C: Rudy Gobert, Boris Diaw, Jeff Withey,

1 too many pg's still. See, no place for Demetrius Jackson at this inn. Is Exum really the backup? My guess is not to start the season. I assume Johnson is cut.

Needs: George Hill to fit in chemistry wise/ To come together early enough that they get the 3rd seed and skip GS until the conference finals if Utah can get there. But this looks a year to win a playoff series if not 2. A big key will be not having one of the key guys have a regression year -- Hood, Lyles, Gobert etc. While there is no reason to expect a set back from anyone in particular, Utah has enough young guys that they could easily have one guy not just fail to take the next step, but backslide and underperform last year.

Additional Thoughts:Long term Exum needs to show why he was picked so high. Hill and Hayward need to sign next offseason. And someone is getting renegotiated and extended right? Trade idea: Renegotiate and extent Favors or Hill. Yep, I'm not sending Mack or Neto to Sacramento, and I'm being boring and taking a non-trade.

Projected Win/Loss: 49-33 I like Utah's chances.

Off-Season Grade: A Maybe they can flirt it up to a + with a good re-signing but I think an A is more than fair and they didn't sign a top 5 NBA talent so no big reason for the +, right? Remember that argument.


bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review

Key Losses:
None

Losses:
Trevor Booker
Trey Burke

Booker is good, but not too major given his role in SLC.

Draft:
#12 traded
#42 traded
#52 Joel Bolomboy (signed)
#55 Marcus Paige (traded for and unsigned)
#60 Tyrone Wallace (unsigned)

Trades:
#12 to Atlanta for George Hill (with Indiana)
#42 for #55 and cash from Nets
Trey Burke for 2021 Washington 2nd
Oliver Hanlan's rights for Boris Diaw and 2022 SAS 2nd
Pleiss, cash, best and worst of 2017 2nds (Det, GS NYK, Utah) for Marshall (cut)

Free Agency:
Joe Johnson 2/$21.5m
Quin Snyder extension (Head coach)
Joel Bolomboy 3/$2.55m (1m gtd)

Love love love the Hill trade. He's a near perfect fit and this team is so close and young I can live with losing the pick for a guy like Hill since Exum is so unknown. Burke was whatever, don't love selling picks but they're mid/late seconds, nothing huge. Got a solid price on Diaw if he's still in good shape, and the Pleiss trade may set up a Favors extension which makes the offseason even better if it happens.

Snyder's extension is another plus, as I think he's a good younger coach for this team, and JJ is a solid vet addition though I'm not sure he's really much of a contributor on court. He could definitely bring some leadership.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto
SG: Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Christapher Johnson
SF: Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles
PF: Derrick Favors, Trey Lyles, Joel Bolomboy
C: Rudy Gobert, Boris Diaw, Jeff Withey,

Needs:
Health, honestly not a ton else. This season will likely determine if Utah thinks they have "the guy" they can depend on to take them deep into the playoffs. A star type trade would be great, but don't know if needed. Maybe an upgrade for Diaw depending.
Additional Thoughts:
NW division is tough this year.

Projected Win/Loss: 48-34

Off-Season Grade: A-


dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review

Key Losses:
Trevor Booker

Booker is a solid player, but even then, I think it's time for Lyles to get some burn.

Losses:
Trey Burke
Tibor Pleiss

Yeaaaahhhhhh...this probably actually makes them better.

Draft:
#12 traded
#42 traded
#52 Joel Bolomboy (signed)
#55 Marcus Paige (traded for and unsigned)
#60 Tyrone Wallace (unsigned)

They have enough young guys—this is fine.

Trades:
#12 to Atlanta for George Hill (with Indiana)
#42 for #55 and cash from Nets
Trey Burke for 2021 Washington 2nd
Oliver Hanlan's rights for Boris Diaw and 2022 SAS 2nd
Pleiss, cash, best and worst of 2017 2nds (Det, GS NYK, Utah) for Marshall (cut)

I love all of this.

The Jazz had trouble closing teams out last year, which was probably partly a function of how green much of their rotation is. They had a huge hole at PG. Bringing in Hill gives them a guy who can run both on and off ball, plays great defense, and won't keep the ball out of their capable wings' hands.

Picking up Diaw is a solid move too, although I think Lyles should probably play more than him. He gives them an extra dimension as a ball mover in the frontcourt.

Free Agency:
Joe Johnson 2/$21.5m
Quin Snyder extension (Head coach)
Joel Bolomboy 3/$2.55m (1m gtd)

I really love the Joe Johnson signing. For a team that struggled to close games out, you pick up one of the best closers out there on short money? Yeah, this is great.

Snyder's a solid coach. Is he elite? IDK. But I like what he's done with this team.

Bolomboy...he's a guy.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto
SG: Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Christapher Johnson
SF: Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles
PF: Derrick Favors, Trey Lyles, Joel Bolomboy
C: Rudy Gobert, Boris Diaw, Jeff Withey,

I'm definitely expecting one of the PGs to be sent out. Would keep an eye on Burks as well, as all the wings are positionally versatile and might be able to slide a spot. Burks has had injury issues and might be moveable.

This team is deep. Almost too deep. There are solid rotation guys who probably won't get minutes. I wouldn't be shocked if there's a consolidation trade sometime in the season.

Needs: Stay healthy. Close out games. Incorporate Hill seamlessly. Exum needs to break out and the other young guys need to not regress.

Additional Thoughts: Renegotiate and extend Favors and/or Hill. Keep this core together.

Projected Win/Loss: 55 wins I'm unreasonably high on Utah this year. Think they could hit the 2 or 3 seed with a little luck.

Off-Season Grade: A+ They didn't make any mistakes, kept an excellent core together, addressed their needs perfectly, and set themselves up well for the future. I LOVE this team.


Slava wrote:Slava Review

Losses:
Trevor Booker
Trey Burke

While Booker is a nice bench big to have, Jazz have Lyles who needs more playing time and responsibility and coupled with the Diaw trade, it makes him the odd man out.

Not much fussed with losing Burke either. While he did show some improvement in shooting efficiency he was never a good option in their guard rotation and this move allows them to slide Exum, hoping he recovers well into his more natural position as a back up PG.

Draft:
#12 traded
#42 traded
#52 Joel Bolomboy (signed)
#55 Marcus Paige (traded for and unsigned)
#60 Tyrone Wallace (unsigned)

Bolomboy had a pretty good draft combine where he showed the most ups for a big guy and top speed in the agility drills as well. Doesn't seem like a natural basketball player despite being an impressive athlete so if it all works out for him, he might contribute as an energy big a few years down the line so getting the third year in there and making the contract non-guaranteed beyond the second is good.

Trades:
#12 to Atlanta for George Hill (with Indiana)
#42 for #55 and cash from Nets
Trey Burke for 2021 Washington 2nd
Oliver Hanlan's rights for Boris Diaw and 2022 SAS 2nd
Pleiss, cash, best and worst of 2017 2nds (Det, GS NYK, Utah) for Marshall (cut)

They got their much needed PG, although I'd probably have gone for a better playmaker than George Hill. As it is, this still puts a lot of playmaking responsibility on Gordon Hayward and while he is good, he doesn't seem to naturally enjoy setting the table and seems to thrive more as a scorer.

I'd have thought Teague might be the better fit here in terms of PGs who were available for a pick in that range as he is more comfortable with the ball in his hands and navigating pick and roll situations than Hill, who is a more passive PG but he brings reliable shooting, good defense to the starting unit which isn't bad but I have a feeling they will be inserting Joe Johnson as an added ball handler into the starting line up if the offense stagnates.

I think this is a team that is going to go through stretches where the offense might not circulate as well as it should especially with added defensive pressure in tight game situations so adding a playmaker of the caliber of Diaw to the frontcourt is a good idea. He appeared to be motivated to keep his weight in check while playng for the Spurs so as long as he stays in shape, he will be yet another nice addition to the squad.

Free Agency:
Joe Johnson 2/$21.5m
Quin Snyder extension (Head coach)
Joel Bolomboy 3/$2.55m (1m gtd)

Liked the Quin Snyder extension and the continuity that promises.

Iffy on Joe Johnson in general but for the money and the years on the contract they couldn't have gotten a better player to add some maturity to the second unit or play as a more ball handling guard in some situations with the starting line up. Still wish the second year was a team option as things will start getting quite tight here money-wise as early as next season.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto
SG: Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Christapher Johnson
SF: Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles
PF: Derrick Favors, Trey Lyles, Joel Bolomboy
C: Rudy Gobert, Boris Diaw, Jeff Withey

Love the depth at every position and the continuity they have managed to keep. I'm a big fan of Rodney Hood and while he had his moments last year I think this will be his break out season and he might end up rivaling Hayward for the top scorer on the team. I'd look to stagger Favors and Gobert's minutes a lot and use each of them in turn with Trey Lyles, who brings a ton of versatility with his ability to shoot, handle and pass.

I think this team is going to be a handful, Snyder is a very innovative coach and they did have a top 5 point differential in the West last season so with some development, I think they might be giving Golden State the stern test that they would have otherwise gotten from OKC had Durant not deflected to the enemy.

Needs:
1. Good health for Exum and Burks.
2. Diaw staying motivated and in shape.

Additional Thoughts:
I love where this team is heading as they have mostly drafted well and while they stayed quite conservative with the cap, they will be feeling the crunch as early as next season when they have to extend Gobert, re-sign Hayward and Hill and possibly restructure Favors' deal this year.

So at this time, it looks a bit daft to have let Hayward sign with Charlotte for 3 years and matching it, rather than locking him up for as many years as they could right then.

Projected Win/Loss: 48-34

Off-Season Grade: A-


loserX wrote:
Key Losses:
Trevor Booker

Booker did what he was brought in to do; hustle and be a good influence. I'll miss him but he was easily replaced.

Losses:
Trey Burke
Tibor Pleiss

Burke is a good guy who got squeezed out; his contributions have already been replaced. The others were complete non-factors who might get end-of-the-bench looks from other teams later this season...or not.

Draft:
#12 traded
#42 traded
#52 Joel Bolomboy (signed)
#55 Marcus Paige (traded for and unsigned)
#60 Tyrone Wallace (unsigned)

I'm pleased that the team decided to make room for Bolomboy. I'm not really sure why we bothered with Paige or Wallace...at the time that gave us EIGHT players or prospects at the PG spot. Burke and Hanlan have since been traded so now we're back down to six :-?

Not that we had a lot of need or use for these 2nd rounders but it really feels like we just threw them away. Mildly disappointing, or at least a head-scratcher.

Trades:
#12 to Atlanta for George Hill (with Indiana)
#42 for #55 and cash from Nets
Trey Burke for 2021 Washington 2nd
Oliver Hanlan's rights for Boris Diaw and 2022 SAS 2nd
Pleiss, cash, best and worst of 2017 2nds (Det, GS NYK, Utah) for Marshall (cut)

I'm elated with the first trade. This was not an exciting draft and Utah was able to trade a mid-round pick for exactly what we needed; a combo guard who can run the team, defend either position and shoot 3s besides. Just perfect on the court. Only drawback is that Hill is expiring, but even if he walks next year this was a good move.

I don't understand why we bothered getting #55 from Brooklyn (see my draft notes above), but cash is fine so whatever. We'd completely demolished Burke's value in every way possible (see notes on having EIGHT PGs above) so getting anything at all for him was a fine save.

Really like the Diaw trade too. Snyder desperately wanted a front court playmaker, and we got one very cheap. Diaw can't play a *lot*, but he can fill good minutes with any of our other bigs, and he's not a long-term commitment.

I'm fine with the Pleiss trade, we essentially traded extra 2nd rounders to save cash (apparently) instead of what we usually do: sell them for cash.

Free Agency:
Joe Johnson 2/$21.5m
Quin Snyder extension (Head coach)
Joel Bolomboy 3/$2.55m (1m gtd)

I've always been a JJ fan, so I'm biased about this one...but I like it. We needed wing scoring, someone who can go get buckets at the end of games, and we got it. I'm okay with big money for short years; that fits our budget. Extending Quin makes me happy, and so does signing Bolomboy instead of having wasted *another* 2nd round pick.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto
SG: Rodney Hood, Alec Burks
SF: Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles
PF: Derrick Favors, Trey Lyles, Joel Bolomboy
C: Rudy Gobert, Boris Diaw, Jeff Withey,

Needs:
Chemistry. We had a young team and brought in some good veterans, now it's up to Quin to make it all work, system-wise and minutes-wise.

Our defense to remain stout. It's our hallmark, and despite the Joe Johnson signing (and Burks' return?) we are still not a very good offensive team. And I think it unlikely we make any other substantial moves to change that. So if we win games, it's going to be 82-78...which means we need to be sure about the 78.

Additional Thoughts:
Next year, Hill, Hayward (probably) and Gobert are free agents. The year after that, Favors, Hood and Exum are. It is not going to be easy to keep everyone here, especially if we do well this year! So while I am pleased with this offseason (and will be even more so if we can get any of these guys extended), this was the "easy" summer. The real work for Dennis Lindsey still lies ahead.

Projected Win/Loss: 46-36
I have no idea. The West is still going to be very tough, and while I like our moves on paper, I'm very much a "show me" guy when it comes to predictions like this. We should make the playoffs, but I'm not confident about a top seed yet. 46-36?

Off-Season Grade: A
Utah was very patient last year, despite horrific injury woes...and got eliminated from the playoffs on the last day of the season. Management wasn't standing for that again, so targeted the following needs:
- guard consistency
- wing scoring
- frontcourt passing
- depth
- size at all positions

And they got all of it. And at reasonable-to-good prices, and extended their coach besides.

The only real strike to me was futzing around with second rounders, and at this point no one should really care. Giving my own team an A on this one.


jazzfan1971 wrote:Last season the Jazz had a disappointing, injury plagued year falling one game short of making the playoffs. Jazz were forced to play 2nd round rookie Raul Neto 52 games as the starting PG.

Some needs going into this season were clear and pressing.

Jazz needs
---------------------------
Pressing
- Starting level PG. Dante Exum was intended to fill this role when we drafted him, but, with his injury and missing a whole year in addition to being a guy that hasn't played a ton of basketball bringing in a guy to man the position if he wasn't ready to go was a priority.

- Depth. Jazz had horrendus depth last year. Our starters were terrific, often hanging with our outplaying anyone we were matched up against, but, when the bench came in it was a disaster. It's no surprise because our bench was made up of DLeaguers, 2nd rounders, and vet min guys. Lets take a look at that bench.

PG - Trey Burke - Trey was the most highly touted of the group, being the #9 draft pick and NCAA player of the year. But, he never really lived up to the expectations and this offseason he was traded for a 2021 2nd rounder. That should give you some idea of his current value.
SG - Chris Johnson. Who? He went undrafted, then to the Dleague, then played a bit for the Jazz.
SF - Joe Ingles. Overseas player who was cut by the Clippers after 5 preaseason games. Not exactly highly sought after.
PF - Trevor Booker. 23rd pick in 2010. Decent player. Trey Lyles, Rookie.
C - Jeff Withey. 2nd round guy. Wasn't retained by NO. Tibor Pleiss another 2nd round guy.

And that was about it until the Jazz traded for Shelvin Mack, pushing 2nd round pick Raul Neto to the bench.

Wishful need (it's a need shared by 99% of the league, easier said than done, ask Ainge.)
--------------------
- Consolidation trade into a big fish

So, what did the Jazz do?

Starting Level PG - We traded for George Hill. We get Exum back. We retained Mack.

Depth - We got Exum back, we got Burks back, we traded for Hill, we signed Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw. Lyles looks like he's taking a step forward based off strong summer league play.

Consolidation trade - Nope.

Depth Chart - Players in green are projected to be better at that slot than the corresponding player last season. Players in light green I expect to improve incrementally (this is harder to predict than the dark green guys) (IF I had expected a drop off at any slot I would have colored them red, but, I'm not anticipating any regression at any position this season)

PG - George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack
SG - Rodney Hood, Alec Burks (It's reasonable to expect Hood to be incrementally better going into this 3rd year)
SF - Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles
PF - Derrick Favors, Trey Lyles
C - Rudy Gobert, Boris Diaw, Jeff Withey (As a big, I think it's not unlikely that Gobert improves incrementally going into his 4th year)
B - Raul Neto, Joel Bolomboy(neither of these guys are expected to have an impact at this point)

I'm expecting a finish in the 45-52 range depending on health, and a finish somewhere in the 3-6 range being most likely @47-48 wins.

Projected Win/Loss: 47.5

Off-Season Grade: A
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#2 » by Texas Chuck » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:38 pm

I'm just so happy I could stop posting PG trades and having all the Jazz poster tell me (nicely) how daft I was for doing so.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfa... 

Post#3 » by Daddy 801 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:44 pm

I would give the Jazz an A- grade for the offseason. And if this latest move of dumping Tibor results in Favs getting resigned I would give it an A. And if DL also resigns Hill I would give it an A+.

Assuming decent health I expect north of 50 wins and somewhere from third to sixth seed. I think they will be the second or third best team in West come playoff time, but getting rotations down and a tough schedule in the beginning of the year may result in less wins than some think.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#4 » by KqWIN » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:47 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:I'm just so happy I could stop posting PG trades and having all the Jazz poster tell me (nicely) how daft I was for doing so.


The sour ending to the season really forced the FO's hand, and that might have been a good thing. Lindsey did a good job of putting the team in a position to win. Though I'm sure I'm not the only Jazz fan who is a little skeptical of the team's ability to perform. Lots of pressure on Quin, he needs to be better.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#5 » by jazzfan1971 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:50 pm

Lol, I predict them to win 47.5. That's going to be a hard prediction to get right!
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#6 » by HartfordWhalers » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:51 pm

KqWIN wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:I'm just so happy I could stop posting PG trades and having all the Jazz poster tell me (nicely) how daft I was for doing so.


The sour ending to the season really forced the FO's hand, and that might have been a good thing. Lindsey did a good job of putting the team in a position to win. Though I'm sure I'm not the only Jazz fan who is a little skeptical of the team's ability to perform. Lots of pressure on Quin, he needs to be better.


I'm on that theme:

I love love Quin. That said, seeing Utah's expected win loss by SRS was 46 last season makes me wonder why it is so much higher (+6) than their wins.
10 wins by 5 or less versus 17 losses by 5 or less.
18 wins by 10 or less versus 31 losses by 10 or less.
And the cherry picked the break point: 10 wins by 8 or less versus 24 losses by 8 or less.

Utah lost a lot more close games than they won, and that will need to change. Is it the product of no legit pg. The product of no star closer? The product of bad coaching? I'm hoping for Utah the pg situation fixes it mostly, but the star closer cannot be ruled out.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#7 » by HartfordWhalers » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:51 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:Lol, I predict them to win 47.5. That's going to be a hard prediction to get right!


Pick one if you want :)
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#8 » by KqWIN » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:20 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
KqWIN wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:I'm just so happy I could stop posting PG trades and having all the Jazz poster tell me (nicely) how daft I was for doing so.


The sour ending to the season really forced the FO's hand, and that might have been a good thing. Lindsey did a good job of putting the team in a position to win. Though I'm sure I'm not the only Jazz fan who is a little skeptical of the team's ability to perform. Lots of pressure on Quin, he needs to be better.


I'm on that theme:

I love love Quin. That said, seeing Utah's expected win loss by SRS was 46 last season makes me wonder why it is so much higher (+6) than their wins.
10 wins by 5 or less versus 17 losses by 5 or less.
18 wins by 10 or less versus 31 losses by 10 or less.
And the cherry picked the break point: 10 wins by 8 or less versus 24 losses by 8 or less.

Utah lost a lot more close games than they won, and that will need to change. Is it the product of no legit pg. The product of no star closer? The product of bad coaching? I'm hoping for Utah the pg situation fixes it mostly, but the star closer cannot be ruled out.


It's will be the most important theme of the season, you could argue that it already is. If the Jazz win 46 last year a lot of things would be different. Even winning two more games and making the playoffs would have given the franchise a much better vibe.

At the same time, I'm careful not to be too critical because he was put into a tough position. Injuries piled up, and that often put him in between a rock and a hard place. Making the least bad decision is not the place you want to be as a coach. This year will be a much different challenge. The lineup possibilities are endless with the amount of positional versatility on this team. He will have to make tough choices with the rotation and keep the team together when some players don't get to play as much as they want.

The clutch performance issue is one that I could go on and on forever with, but the key here is that it is primarily a defensive issue. Quin needs to have a better gameplan, the players need to execute better, and we also need some more luck. We were horrible on all three of those fronts last season.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#9 » by Mystical Apples » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:48 pm

I gave them an A. Their floor is A- not sure how B even sneaks into the equation. They upgraded in the exact areas necessary while maintaining $11M cap space to absorb a contract or roll into 2017 for a max by renouncing holds/non-guarantees:

PG: massive upgrade, ideal fit with Utah's wings
Ball Movement: out goes Booker (awful passer), in comes Diaw (elite passer)
2nd unit play-making: JJ, Diaw
Floor Spacing: Hill, JJ, jettisoning Booker and Burke
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#10 » by jazzfan1971 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:53 pm

On losing close games...

A local Jazz guy, David Locke, has gone on endlessly about the close games thing. He says (with stats to back it) that what happened with that is that the Jazz were often trailing in those close games, and it's a LOT harder to win a close game when you are the trailing team.

That makes a lot of sense actually.

So, according to him, and something of a no brainer, is that what the Jazz need to win those close games isn't better coaching, or better closers, or more veterans, all the Jazz really need is to be winning those close games instead of trying to come back from behind. And if the Jazz are as improved as we think they are, it's reasonable to think that we'll be out in front more often than last year.

I think it would be interesting to look at close games broken down into 3 categories. -5 to -3, -2 to +2, +3 to +5 (all at teh 5 minute mark or 2 minute mark or whenever you want to define a game as 'close') Then instead of having one metric for close games you'd have 3, one where you are up, one where you are within a bucket, and one where you are down. Or maybe just define close as within a bucket instead of within 5 if you are less ambitious.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#11 » by stitches » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:05 pm

Championship or bust!

Just a slight correction - Marcus Paige has been signed to a two year partially guaranteed contract(about 100K is guaranteed).
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#12 » by Trader_Joe » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:19 pm

Utah and Minny are definitely the trendy WC teams this year where people are expecting big things from these clubs. I'm much more sold on Utah to meet those expectations than Minny. This off-season was an A in my book but next season looks to the precarious one with the lingering free agents on the team. Should be a very interesting 12 months coming for the Jazz.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#13 » by KqWIN » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:42 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:On losing close games...

A local Jazz guy, David Locke, has gone on endlessly about the close games thing. He says (with stats to back it) that what happened with that is that the Jazz were often trailing in those close games, and it's a LOT harder to win a close game when you are the trailing team.

That makes a lot of sense actually.

So, according to him, and something of a no brainer, is that what the Jazz need to win those close games isn't better coaching, or better closers, or more veterans, all the Jazz really need is to be winning those close games instead of trying to come back from behind. And if the Jazz are as improved as we think they are, it's reasonable to think that we'll be out in front more often than last year.

I think it would be interesting to look at close games broken down into 3 categories. -5 to -3, -2 to +2, +3 to +5 (all at teh 5 minute mark or 2 minute mark or whenever you want to define a game as 'close') Then instead of having one metric for close games you'd have 3, one where you are up, one where you are within a bucket, and one where you are down. Or maybe just define close as within a bucket instead of within 5 if you are less ambitious.


Locke is great, but unfortunately that was another shallow statistical analysis that he extrapolated upon. Andy Larsen did a better job here. The Jazz were down more often then they were ahead in close games, but they needed to better in both situations. 8-7 is not good enough when you're ahead and 3-17 is not good enough when you are behind. The net rating of -17.8 in clutch situations is all you really need to know.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#14 » by Statlanta » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:31 pm

Yup the Jazz have improved this offseason and look to make some noise. This offseason shores up their PG woes and gives them another shot to get to the playoffs with their talented frontcourt. However, I believe next offseason they are in the same situation as Portland were now they have to pay their guys contracts that a lot of people on this board won't like(ala Evan Turner/Crabbe). I don't see 4th seed considering the injury history of the roster and the roster turnover but they can get there.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#15 » by Andre Roberstan » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:34 pm

OrlandoTill wrote:Yup the Jazz have improved this offseason and look to make some noise. This offseason shores up their PG woes and gives them another shot to get to the playoffs with their talented frontcourt. However, I believe next offseason they are in the same situation as Portland were now they have to pay their guys contracts that a lot of people on this board won't like(ala Evan Turner/Crabbe). I don't see 4th seed considering the injury history of the roster and the roster turnover but they can get there.


Hayward is worth whatever he gets paid. If it's less than a max they got him cheap. Hill is probably going to get a fair contract. I don't know who else you could be referring to.

No major rotation guys on Utah's squad that are up for re-signing in 2018 are Turner/Crabbe level.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#16 » by Statlanta » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:46 pm

dbrandon wrote:Hayward is worth whatever he gets paid. If it's less than a max they got him cheap. Hill is probably going to get a fair contract. I don't know who else you could be referring to.

No major rotation guys on Utah's squad that are up for re-signing in 2018 are Turner/Crabbe level.


I remember earlier in your 1st post you mentioned re-signing Favors and I think Gobert is in need of some extending/re-signing. All in all I'm not sure they can continue the conservative cap management anymore at least not if they aim for what they desire(top 4 seed). I know my post was could be taken for rotation guys getting money but I'm really pointing to the fact that the Jazz might have to commit a lot of money to guys(as a small market) especially considering this summer's spending .
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#17 » by Andre Roberstan » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:51 pm

OrlandoTill wrote:
dbrandon wrote:Hayward is worth whatever he gets paid. If it's less than a max they got him cheap. Hill is probably going to get a fair contract. I don't know who else you could be referring to.

No major rotation guys on Utah's squad that are up for re-signing in 2018 are Turner/Crabbe level.


I remember earlier in your 1st post you mentioned re-signing Favors and I think Gobert is in need of some extending/re-signing. All in all I'm not sure they can continue the conservative cap management anymore at least not if they aim for what they desire(top 4 seed). I know my post was could be taken for rotation guys getting money but I'm really pointing to the fact that the Jazz might have to commit a lot of money to guys(as a small market) especially considering this summer's spending .


Renegotiation and extension, which isn't a ton of money. Same thing OKC did with Westbrook.

But yeah, Gobert is up next year—didn't notice that.

They'll probably be capped out or close to it, but especially considering the flexibility of Diaw's contract, they're likely STILL not going to be a taxpaying team next year while being able to keep the bulk of the rotation together (presuming Hayward opts out and they can bring him back).

That's part of the reason I think Burks could move.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#18 » by jayjaysee » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:55 pm

OrlandoTill wrote:
dbrandon wrote:Hayward is worth whatever he gets paid. If it's less than a max they got him cheap. Hill is probably going to get a fair contract. I don't know who else you could be referring to.

No major rotation guys on Utah's squad that are up for re-signing in 2018 are Turner/Crabbe level.


I remember earlier in your 1st post you mentioned re-signing Favors and I think Gobert is in need of some extending/re-signing. All in all I'm not sure they can continue the conservative cap management anymore at least not if they aim for what they desire(top 4 seed). I know my post was could be taken for rotation guys getting money but I'm really pointing to the fact that the Jazz might have to commit a lot of money to guys(as a small market) especially considering this summer's spending .


Favors can be extended, he still has a year after this season on his contract. Utah fans are hoping that Utah uses the cap space this season to give Favors, something like, a new "4 year" deal. Instead of Favors playing for 12 mil the next two years and then getting a 4 yr max (or close to it), Favors could opt for the security of extending now - 4yr80 - or something close to it. The Jazz only lock him up for two more seasons than his current deal, but smooth his contract out. It would help a great deal with the team, obviously, having expensive potential. * I could have messed that all up and someone can correct me but that's my understanding of it.

Gobert, yeah he's getting a max unless Utah gets really lucky. But that's not a regrettable contract imo.

As for the Topic, I love Utah's offseason. Just like everyone else. As good as can be reasonably expected.

I wouldn't trade Alec until GH is resigned. If you trade him, then Hayward leaves - you have to go find another playmaker. Just keep the one you have, then look to trade him if you bring Hill and Hayward back.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#19 » by HartfordWhalers » Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:22 pm

stitches wrote:Championship or bust!

Just a slight correction - Marcus Paige has been signed to a two year partially guaranteed contract(about 100K is guaranteed).


I set the template up before he was signed, and then didn't catch the change.

That minor detail changes my suggested trade however, as I think I will now be sending Neto somewhere. The alternative is Paige gets cut and Utah has no rights over him to show for the pick.

I'm pretty set on my Neto trade, but might be holding off and refining it until we hit September.
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Re: Utah Jazz early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/loserX/jazzfan1971) 

Post#20 » by damecurry » Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:39 pm

I voted A- just because once again I feel like they could have dreamed a little bigger than an exp hill and JJ but that's a minor complaint and very well could have hurt them rather than help, it was a really good off-season. And honestly I'm surprised at the low predictions, 46-49 wins for everyone except one guy who went out on a limb at 55? Surprising, I think right about 51/52 wins sounds right, fighting LAC for the 3rd seed.

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