San Antonio early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon)

[jayjaysee]

We have now reached the point itt where Pau is playable because he will just guard Iggy. Beautiful.

[giberish]

To me the Gasol signing is a good way to keep the engine humming in a way that''ll allow the Spurs to keep racking up W's in the regular season and into the second round of the playoffs, but it doesn't give them a higher gear than they had last year against the best teams.

It seems like they've already committed to Turtle Ball anyway with Aldridge in the fold, so he might not be a bad fit taking turns with Kawhi and LA getting his own, but it's just hard to be a good defensive team with him on the court, especially if the other team is good at moving the ball side-to-side and can run a lot of pick n' roll.

Last year teams pretty much made their go-to offense in crunch-time the pic n' roll with whoever Rose and Gasol were guarding......and it worked. Neither one could defend it worth a damn and it created these lineup problems where we couldn't always play our best players to maximize our chances of winning in the toughest of moments.

As a team the Spurs are way better defensively than the Bulls so maybe there's enough mojo to cover up for his slow feet, but he definitely tied our hands somewhat despite his voluminous production.

Rose was really, really bad on defense last year. Bulls fans have blamed this on Pau but it didn't matter whether Pau was on-court or not. I'd expect Porzingis and Noah to look very bad on P&R defense this year (at least when Rose is playing).

For matching up with GS, he's fine as long as Zaza or a backup C is in the game. He's a bad matchup against small-ball lineups with Green at C - where SA would either have to get creative on D and hope they can win the mis-match on the offensive end or just go small to match - but that's true of any C. I'd expect roughly a 28mpg for Pau, 20 mpg for Deadman regular season rotation. In a GS playoff matchup Pau probably keeps his minutes while LMA slides down to C in place of Deadman to match up with Green.

[bigmean]

this post is becoming almost inclusiveely about Pau Gasol, when they made some great strides to the future with forbes, dedmon, and murray. and we all know i love Arcidaicono and my boy bertans, well played RC Buford

[Chinook]

I mean, since it's come out, there have been numerous other attempts to refine it. So to me that says that it's not popular. Like, PER (for some reason) keeps holding up. We don't see a ton of adjusted values for it. It make have an understated following, but it's hardly at the point that it's definitive.

Please refer to my signature.

Honestly, I feel like that response is biased, or at least unfair. I wasn't the one who dismissed nine stats because I didn't like them. I didn't even dismiss RAPM. What I argued against was that it is definitive (that it supersedes all other stats), hence me pointing out that people have tried refining it rather than just accepting it. And you should have seen it from the discourse, but instead you homed in one part out of context. I have no problem accepting RAPM as part of the suite of stats to use in evaluating players. I do have a problem with putting it clearly above all other stats.

I don't think there's a good argument to say that advanced stats in general don't have Gasol as at least an average defender last year. He had his weaknesses, but he also had his strengths, and the ratio at which he was able to play to his strengths was favorable. And personally, I think the Spurs can push that ratio even farther towards the favorable end. Disagreeing with that is fine, but I don't think there's anything irrational about stating the opposing case.

[Chinook]

We have now reached the point itt where Pau is playable because he will just guard Iggy. Beautiful.

It wouldn't be the first time a team has tried this with him or Livingston. I know for sure that OKC put Kanter on them during the regular season (no idea about the WCF, as I was in mourning still). That doesn't mean it's not a mismatch for GS. It might just be a mismatch the Spurs are willing to concede if Gasol is scoring well on the other end.

There is nothing the Spurs can do or could have done that would make them the favorites over the Warriors. It's not fair to judge them by those standards. The question (for them and every other team contending for a title) is what they will do to give themselves the best chance to beat them. Getting bigger and better in their front court is their attempt to get there. Portland seems to be loading up for small-ball for their attempt. Increasing the talent level around their stars seems to be the Clippers' strategy. The only proven strategy is to have Lebron on your team, and that's not replicable.

I'm not keen to write off anyone's strategy until we see them take their shot.

[Laimbeer]

We have now reached the point itt where Pau is playable because he will just guard Iggy. Beautiful.

It wouldn't be the first time a team has tried this with him or Livingston. I know for sure that OKC put Kanter on them during the regular season (no idea about the WCF, as I was in mourning still). That doesn't mean it's not a mismatch for GS. It might just be a mismatch the Spurs are willing to concede if Gasol is scoring well on the other end.

There is nothing the Spurs can do or could have done that would make them the favorites over the Warriors. It's not fair to judge them by those standards. The question (for them and every other team contending for a title) is what they will do to give themselves the best chance to beat them. Getting bigger and better in their front court is their attempt to get there. Portland seems to be loading up for small-ball for their attempt. Increasing the talent level around their stars seems to be the Clippers' strategy. The only proven strategy is to have Lebron on your team, and that's not replicable.

I'm not keen to write off anyone's strategy until we see them take their shot.

Pretty much this. They did what they could. The Pau signing helps and I like the Murray pick. But their days as a serious contender are over.

[bondom34]

And OKC benched Kanter the entire WCF. That was how that worked for Kanter, and why they won 3 games.

[Mich3006]

With Kawhi and LMA on their team, the Spurs would contend anyway, so there was no possibility to have a "bad" offseason imo. Let´s hope for SAS that Pop´s magic works for guys like Dedmon and Jean-Charles as well.

[HartfordWhalers]

They have the potential to be significantly better than last year. I'm not saying that in terms of regular-season wins,

I'm putting together a spreadsheet on all the win predictions, have a regular season total win number?

[The_Didact_117]

I think it's weird how everyone hates the Gasol signing for the Spurs, seemingly.

Their anchor retired, they didn't have tons of cash to spend and wanted some flexibility going forward so they signed the closest thing to a Timmy replacement for the short term. How is that bad? I love Duncan, but his impact had been severely hampered by the second half of the season and I'm wholly convinced if Pau had been in his place the Spurs would've made it past OKC. That is not a disrespect to my favorite player of all time, but he was playing on no knees out there.

Spurs have the best team defensive concept in the league and the best perimeter defenders, one of them being the back to back DPOY. Gasol, while definitely slow and immobile, isn't any slower than Duncan at this point and with the league oriented more towards the perimeter I think that the Spurs' wing defense will more than cover for the loss. On the flip side, Pau is incredibly skilled on offense and way better than Tim at this point. Any Spurs fan will agree, Spurs are basically playing 4 on 5 on offense with Tim because he lack of mobility and knee issues took any lift from him, routinely leading to missed chip shots around the basket. Yes our defense may suffer but our offense should improve dramatically. IMO trying to look at past stats are irrelevant and out of context. The Spurs system and Pop in particular are known for maximizing defensive potential, I have no worries that they will make Pau at least serviceable on that end. Let's not forget that Bogut was an elite defensive center and a big part of GSW being elite on that end. Replacing him with Zaza is not going to be the same.

Most Spurs fans are pretty excited going into 2017 and aside from losing Tim, something we could not forsee or control for, I and many others think they have improved and may have a better season. Spurs got rid of some dead weight. Boris was virtually non-existent last season, West was decent in the RS but atrocious in the postseason and I am very happy he left, and Boban wasn't much of a factor either way. Spurs added a nice euro sharpshooter who will make an impact in Bertans, I think this guy is underrated and will be another classic Spurs pickup. I like the replacement of West/Diaw with Lee/Dedmon because Spurs were murdered on the glass against OKC and they added some solid rebounders. I also think we'll by better just by virtue of Green and Mills having better seasons, as both of them had down 3PT% years last season. On top of that I expect Anderson/Simmons to improve and Kyle especially to have a breakout season.

Most importantly is the improvement of our 25 year old superstar. Curry exploded in a season and no one could have seen how amazing he would become, maybe Leonard will take the next step as well. Spurs have a chance to be a lot better on him improving alone, which I believe he will because he is a workhorse and improved every season so far.

tl;dr: I like our moves, I think Spurs did the best they could with limited maneuverability and the sudden announcement of Tim retiring. Obviously I don't see them as the favorites and GS definitely has that respect but I still believe they will win 60+ and can challenge the Warriors in some capacity.

[HartfordWhalers]

I still believe they will win 60+ and can challenge the Warriors in some capacity.

For the list of win total predictions,can I put you down for 60 or is there a number above 60 you would prefer as your single number guess?

[The_Didact_117]

I also forgot to mention Aldridge. Spurs were pretty great last season and he wasnt even really playing in his groove until February. He was playing the like the best PF in the NBA for the latter part of the season once he got comfortable.

[The_Didact_117]

I still believe they will win 60+ and can challenge the Warriors in some capacity.

For the list of win total predictions,can I put you down for 60 or is there a number above 60 you would prefer as your single number guess?

I'll go with 61 wins

We have now reached the point itt where Pau is playable because he will just guard Iggy. Beautiful.

It wouldn't be the first time a team has tried this with him or Livingston. I know for sure that OKC put Kanter on them during the regular season (no idea about the WCF, as I was in mourning still). That doesn't mean it's not a mismatch for GS. It might just be a mismatch the Spurs are willing to concede if Gasol is scoring well on the other end.

There is nothing the Spurs can do or could have done that would make them the favorites over the Warriors. It's not fair to judge them by those standards. The question (for them and every other team contending for a title) is what they will do to give themselves the best chance to beat them. Getting bigger and better in their front court is their attempt to get there. Portland seems to be loading up for small-ball for their attempt. Increasing the talent level around their stars seems to be the Clippers' strategy. The only proven strategy is to have Lebron on your team, and that's not replicable.

I'm not keen to write off anyone's strategy until we see them take their shot.

Great point. The judgment seems not to be based on what Spurs did in the offseason but what Spurs did in the offseason to counter KD to GS, which makes no sense. No team can beat GS at the perimeter game, they are loaded with some of best shooters ever and two MVPs in their primes, absolutely unprecedented. But the Spurs had a very good frontcourt and have added size and skill to it, building on their one advantage against GS. Teams should be trying to maximize their advantages, not beat GS at theirs.

Many people are also assuming there will be no hiccups with the Warriors and it seems assumed that Curry will continue to play at his abberation-season status, which I don't think will happen. Spurs will have trouble guarding that PnR but I don't see how Zaza/Green are going to stop the Spurs bigs around the basket either

[jayjaysee]

Curry will continue to play at his abberation-season status, which I don't think will happen. Spurs will have trouble guarding that PnR but I don't see how Zaza/Green are going to stop the Spurs bigs around the basket either

Just to throw out.. I don't think Zaza/Green is a bad defensive match for Gasol/LMA, and as a Spurs fan you should know West will come in and annoy offensive players as well. The Spurs big man advantage only happens if they can maintain a lead long enough to force Zaza into the 30 minute range.. If Kerr doesn't take care of Zaza through the season, he won't be able to handle that in the playoffs. But if every Dallas fan knows that, I assume Kerr noticed the consistent drop off.

And Curry's aberration.. What most seem to ignore is, statistically it's nothing different than the previous two years - just higher usage. Which isn't going to be necessary this year. The reason his shooting percentage, and TS and all the advanced trackers, look better each of the last two years is he has dropped the number of long 2's he takes and gets inside more.

I'm not trying to humanize Curry at all here, but his 3's didn't actually improve last season. He has been the same freak at that for years, and while 11 attempts a game is nuts - I don't see why we should have expected a drop when he hovered around 8 attempts the previous 3 seasons. But he has stopped taking so many long 2's and instead gets inside where he shoots a ridiculous 69%.. (2013-2014 he took 32.2% of his shots from 10feet-the3 last season, last season he took 13.6% in that range)

Beyond the every few game trickshots - what Curry did last season was just what he has been doing. Just more usage. I don't see how it was an aberration at all. Drop his usage, and he is "only" 2015 Curry. Which wasn't considered human 18 months ago.

[The_Didact_117]

You make good points but I strongly disagree about West. He's not going to come in and do anything except not box out, make stupid fouls, and get killed on the glass. I know I'm bitter about how things ended and his performance vs. OKC but honestly, he wasn't much of a vital cog for the Spurs and he really won't be missed except maybe for depth purposes. I am salivating at the thought of him trying to box out against LMA/Gasol/Dedmon/Lee

And c'mon man, Curry's 2016 season was something we've never seen before, it's definitely not just "what he's been doing." But I'm not saying he is going to drop off massively or anything like that, I just mean he was absolutely incredible last season, almost magical. The way he played and players' inability to guard him anywhere was unprecedented before, which is why there was talk by some about him winning MIP and MVP. To duplicate it won't be easy, especially with his best screener gone (and half the team) with another high usage player starting next to him now

[Chinook]

They have the potential to be significantly better than last year. I'm not saying that in terms of regular-season wins,

I'm putting together a spreadsheet on all the win predictions, have a regular season total win number?

59 is what my gut is telling me right now. Well, actually 55-63, but 59 is a good balance.

[Chinook]

Just to throw out.. I don't think Zaza/Green is a bad defensive match for Gasol/LMA, and as a Spurs fan you should know West will come in and annoy offensive players as well. The Spurs big man advantage only happens if they can maintain a lead long enough to force Zaza into the 30 minute range.. If Kerr doesn't take care of Zaza through the season, he won't be able to handle that in the playoffs. But if every Dallas fan knows that, I assume Kerr noticed the consistent drop off.

I think that Green and Zaza on LMA and Gasol is a worse matchup than Green, Parker and Leonard on Curry, Thompson and Durant. Obviously, the scoring potential of GS' perimeter is superior, but I don't think the Spurs have any issue with trying to figure out how to defend them. They may just not be able to, but it won't be confusing. Parker sucks on D most days, but having Thompson use possessions posting him up is a win for SA. Danny and Kawhi are All-NBA --caliber defenders. While Draymond is great and Zaza is competent, it's not the same when looking at two of the most skilled big-man scorers in the world.

I think the series would come down to Kerr's strategy to neutralize the post advantage of SA and Pop's ability to get his guys to rise as one at the right time. I do put the Spurs' bench over the Warriors' right now. If the starters can keep it close, the second units may make the difference.

[SAGirl]

I hope a Spurs fan responds to this..

But what happened to LJC's hype? He should be that tweener - and with his length he should be the piece that is getting talked about against GS. Maybe he had an awful year? Or just a bad summer league?

And yeah, I can't dismiss the drop off in defense from Gasol to Duncan in general. It's huge. But I don't think the defensive side aspect matters against GS. Neither are playable if GS is leading or if they are hot.

Livio just has a lot to work on right now. Right this second, he's just an athlete with size and not much more. I hope he develops, but he is probably d'league bound for the majority of the season and he needs it. He was really underwhelming in summer league this past July. More realistically we won't get a grasp for him until he's been coached by the Spurs and see him his second season.

[NBAMythbuster]

Nobody should be citing Livio as a reason the Spurs will do well/badly. He's clearly just there as a promise fulfillment, and probably lost his NBA chance with that injury. I wouldn't be shocked if the Spurs cut him after training camp if he doesn't perform well enough. I also think David Lee is more or less irrelevant. He's the Spurs 3rd string 5, who is there to basically soak up spare regular season minutes. The Spurs had a great offseason IMO. I think Dedmon is going to be huge for them, especially if they develop him well, giving them a true rim roller finally. Think middle class mans D.Jordan. He'll be important to the Spurs having a shot against the Warriors. I like Simmons and Slow Mo's chances of improving this coming season as major role players off the bench, and Pau is a good regular season addition (and even in the playoffs against non-Warriors teams). Bertans might be a fun 11th man too. People down on the Spurs are being ridiculous. Pau doesn't help them v.s the Warriors, but a player who did wasn't available on the market this offseason and they didn't acquire him for that. He will help them win a stack of r.season games while they bring the team along though, and work out what line-up will work v.s GSW (if such a line-up exists). The Spurs should be fine without Duncan, because they were fine without him last season (18-4 in games he missed if we include the 8 minute bench cameo v.s the Warriors).

[SAGirl]

I really wasn't enchanted by their offseason, because they needed help in their backcourt urgently and didn't get anything. It wasn't just Tony, but Manu also looked overmatched in the postseason. Danny is obviously a roleplayer you don't want handling the ball in the postseason and Simmons is a huge, huge question mark.

The team also lost a lot of depth to sign Gasol and that made me kind of not so hot about the signing, but it is what it is. Spurs lost Tim and he was still a big part of the team. The Spurs just attempted to preserve the status quo they had last season, so it was a little disappointing that they didn't improve in other deficient areas, but they did what they could. In the meantime they brought over some stashed rookies and their 2016 draft pick. I like that the Spurs are reloading for the long run (bc Kawhi is still young) while keeping this team competitive in the immediate present.

I gave them a B despite my not being that thrilled about their offseason because what the franchise attempted to do is a balancing act that no franchise has navigated before without a a huge dropoff. They positioned themselves to move from the TD era to the Kawhi era as seamlessly as possible, and got some pieces for the future too.

Yes, it will take a year or two for these rookies to be sorted out, incorporated and until we can see them really produce. At that point Pau is likely not in the Spurs anymore and it's a different team so Pau tides them over from here to there.

Within that context, the GSW thing is a minor issue. The macrocosm of the situation goes beyond GSW. Next topic, they will need to address their backcourt issues. Maybe Murray is an answer there, but they won't know that this season.