Denver Offseason ReviewHartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
none
Losses:
D.J. Augustin
(Look for one of JaKarr Sampson and Axel Toupane to be added here barring a trade)
Joffrey Lauvergne
They very much kept the squad together. Woops. Well all except Joffrey Lauvergne.
Draft:
#7 Jamal Murray
#15 Juancho Hernangomez
#19 Malik Beasley
#53 Petr Cornelie (stashed)
#56 traded
This is just my favorite draft. I could have seen Murray go 3-4 slots higher, Hermangomez 6 slots higher, and Cornelie 10-15 slots higher. I'm all aboard the thought process behind this draft, as well as the fits. Beasley should be an interesting gamble as well. I love this draft. And when you can bring in 3 guys in the top 20 and feel that way about them, and get an interesting stash, thats a big deal.
Trades:
#56 to Oklahoma City for cash
Joffrey Lauvergne to OC for OKC 2017 2nd and Mem 2017 2nd
At #56 the only other option was hoping an US guy doesn't force the issue and stashes himself (a bad gamble) or Wang Zhelin and stashing him (or technically perhaps Gracin Bakumanya the only undrafted international underclassmen for all you trivia buffs). When it comes down to those options, I'm not opposed to taking a little money when you already got a stash.
I don't get the Joffrey Lauvergne trade at all. I guess Denver didn't want to pay him in a year, but for this sort of return you can wait and see what is there in a S&T. And with Nurkic's health, he was nice insurance. Jakarr maybe keeps a roster spot now?
Free Agency:
Darrell Arthur 3/$23m (Last year PO)
Mike Miller 2/$7m (last year ungtd)
Jamal Murray rookie scale
Juancho Hernangomez rookie scale
Malik Beasley rookie scale
D.J. Kennedy 3/$3m (only 50k guaranteed)
Miller for 1 year guaranteed is the sort of vet contract you add to a young core. ARthur strikes me as a hard worker and good guy to have around as well, with the player option the price of continuity I suppose.
There is some need to discuss Wade here, but I'm not sure what to say. Paying Wade 25m a year for a non-playoff team seems strange, although if the thinking is he sneas you into the 8th seed and you were below the salary floor before it, the finances are probably solid and a money maker. And the buzz your team gets, the experience for the young guys etc. I prefer a take it slow model but if Denver feels they have fired all their high lotto bullets and are entering Orlando territory, then it does make sense to rush to step 2 and move from drafting 10th to 15th. However, is Denver already at 10? I'm not sold on that yet, despite the continuity of the roster they might have gotten younger with the new rookies stealing minutes off the older vets.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray, Jameer Nelson
SG: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Malik Beasley, D.J. Kennedy
SF: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JaKarr Sampson, Axel Toupane, Mike Miller
PF: Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, Juancho Hernangomez
C: Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic,
I went ahead and moved Murray ahead of Jameer, figuring that will happen soon enough.
Needs:
Seasoning and development. That future core would look amazing with a Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum at sf. The more Mudiay can keep the team and himself under control and cut down on bad passes, the further the team will go short term.
Additional Thoughts:
Does this team ever go super young and trade Gallo or Faried? Or Chandler? Especially with Gallo having a player option next year, it is a big question. I've generally felt they should for the past few years, but they keep getting the guy at #7 I thought they should at #4 so that takes the get worse to get better argument away. I'm trading Gallo at the trade deadline.
Also, if Jokic can play the pf position some, the team has a lot of options that just opened up. This will be worth watching, especially as Denver has so much cap room that they could then offer max contracts to Adams and Noel. And then maybe large ones to Dieng and Len.
Projected Win/Loss: 35
Off-Season Grade: A-
There really isn't much I would change. I would wait till the deadline to dump Gallo, I would keep that draft as is (okay, maybe I would have gone for Furkan Korkmaz as a stash or bet on Skal at 19 instead of Beasley, but I'm not sold I would have), and free agency was managed well. I love what Denver has going.
Edit: lowered the grade to an A- off the trade yesterday. I would undue that.
bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
D.J. Augustin
Joffrey Lauvergne
(Look for one of JaKarr Sampson and Axel Toupane to be added here barring a trade)
Draft:
#7 Jamal Murray
#15 Juancho Hernangomez
#19 Malik Beasley
#53 Petr Cornelie (stashed)
#56 traded
Trades:
#56 to Oklahoma City for cash
Joffrey Lauvergne for OKC and Mem '17 2nds
Free Agency:
Darrell Arthur 3/$23m (Last year PO)
Mike Miller 2/$7m (last year ungtd)
Jamal Murray rookie scale
Juancho Hernangomez rookie scale
Malik Beasley rookie scale
D.J. Kennedy 3/$3m (only 50k guaranteed)
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Emmanuel Mudiay, Jameer Nelson
SG: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, D.J. Kennedy
SF: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JaKarr Sampson, Axel Toupane, Mike Miller
PF: Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, Juancho Hernangomez
C: Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic,
Needs:
Internal improvement, health, and Mudiay to take a step up. Could be a good team in a few years if he improves. Also, possibly a Faried trade given he's rumored to half the league by now.
Additional Thoughts:
A relatively slow offseason, mostly drafted and traded a late second. The Murray pick seems solid, and got Arthur on a bargain deal. Was pretty slow otherwise honestly. I have a hard time grading this one because really they didn't do much.
Projected Win/Loss: 36-46
Off-Season Grade:B-
dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
D.J. Augustin
Joffrey Lauvergne
(Look for one of JaKarr Sampson and Axel Toupane to be added here barring a trade)
None of these are too big a deal. DJ was solid for them last year, but there's enough talent on the team to make up for it.
Draft:
#7 Jamal Murray
#15 Juancho Hernangomez
#19 Malik Beasley
#53 Petr Cornelie (stashed)
#56 traded
I like all of these picks. Really like them. Connelly's one of my favorite GMs.
Trades:
#56 to Oklahoma City for cash
Joffrey Lauvergne to OKC for OKC 2017 2nd and Mem 2017 2nd (both protected)
I'm fine with both of these. Restock the 2nd-rounder pipeline and give up one you weren't going to use? Sure.
Free Agency:
Darrell Arthur 3/$23m (Last year PO)
Mike Miller 2/$7m (last year ungtd)
Jamal Murray rookie scale
Juancho Hernangomez rookie scale
Malik Beasley rookie scale
D.J. Kennedy 3/$3m (only 50k guaranteed)
Keeping Darrell, especially considering he wanted to be there, is a good move. He works hard, knows his role, and is a good influence in the locker room and a useful player on the floor. Miller is also a good one to keep around mainly for his influence in the locker room—he's beyond washed as a player.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Emmanuel Mudiay, Jameer Nelson
SG: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, D.J. Kennedy
SF: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JaKarr Sampson, Axel Toupane, Mike Miller
PF: Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, Juancho Hernangomez
C: Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic
Solid starting lineup and bench. If anything, they're too deep at SG and a little shallow at SF, especially since Chandler and Gallo have both had injury problems. Barton can slide to SF, but it's not his natural position.
Needs:
Health is a big one, particularly for Gallo and Chandler.
They need Garris to take the next step. He's awfully close to breaking out, and if he does, he's going to open some eyes. If he had played in LA or New York last year all we'd be hearing is how amazing he was.
They need to move Faried at some point, though it's not super urgent. He was a fixture for the George Karl Nuggets but this team is a little different, and his skillset doesn't necessarily mesh with the rest of the team.
Mudiay needs to prove he's a genuine star. He's very good already, and I think this year or next if he keeps working on his jumper he'll get some hype.
Jokic needs to prove that last season wasn't just a flash in the pan. He was terrific—can he keep it up? If he can, and the rest of the team stays healthy, they could surprise.
Nurk needs to keep his attitude good. There were notable issues at times last year with him pouting, and that can't happen.
Additional Thoughts:
Looking at this lineup, depending on injuries they could make the bottom of the West pretty interesting. This team could be better than I thought.
Projected Win/Loss: 37 wins
Off-Season Grade: A They drafted well and kept the key contributors together. It still feels like an incomplete team, but for where they are in the process, Connelly's done a good job.
Slava wrote:Slava Review
Losses:
D.J. Augustin
Joffrey Lauvergne
Given the guard rotation as it stands, its no surprise to see him gone and the money on offer from Orlando was pretty good for a guy who'd been subsisting on minimum/tax-payer MLE level deals, bouncing around the league for a while.
Draft:
#7 Jamal Murray
#15 Juancho Hernangomez
#19 Malik Beasley
#53 Petr Cornelie (stashed)
#56 traded
Nothing terribly exciting about the draft but they did get shooting and lots of it to surround Mudiay, Gallinari and Jokic. I like Hernangomez's fit as a stretch 4 here. Murray, even if suspect defensively and lacks the PG skill required for his size is an elite shooter who could compliment their backcourt but when you also add Malik Beasley to a squad that has Gary Harris and Will Barton, that position gets a bit overcrowded.
Still, SG is an in-demand position around the league so I think they have a trade or three in them.
Trades:
#56 to Oklahoma City for cash
Joffrey Lauvergne to OKC for OKC 2017 2nd and Mem 2017 2nd
Like the Lauvergne trade for them as they have the best European scouting network in the league and they are good at making picks in the 40s count.
Free Agency:
Darrell Arthur 3/$23m (Last year PO)
Mike Miller 2/$7m (last year ungtd)
Jamal Murray rookie scale
Juancho Hernangomez rookie scale
Malik Beasley rookie scale
D.J. Kennedy 3/$3m (only 50k guaranteed)
Arthur could be a decent place holder until Hernangomez is ready to shoulder some burden. He had a pretty good season shooting the three at 38.5%,while being a defensive RPM darling and a tough competitor.
Malone is a big fan of him so if he can get over his knee issues, he adds some maturity and leadership in the PF rotation even if he might be limited to around 20 MPG.
Mike Miller at 2 years $7M is a guy who you have around to chaperone the kids.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Emmanuel Mudiay, Jameer Nelson
SG: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, D.J. Kennedy
SF: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JaKarr Sampson, Axel Toupane, Mike Miller
PF: Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, Juancho Hernangomez
C: Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic
Lot of log jam at the SG position but the SF position could be very thin if a couple of injury prone players like Chandler and Gallinari go down and Gallinari has previously been used quite frequently at the 4 in small ball line ups. They might do well to consolidate assets and find a starting caliber SF that can grow with the Mudiay/Harris/Jokic/Murray core.
Needs:
1. Good health for Gallinari and Wilson Chandler
2. Development from Mudiay and Gary Harris
3. A few trades to reduce roster log jam
4. Possibly a third string PG unless Murray plays those minutes
Additional Thoughts:
The roster looks very much like a work in progress. I'd venture to assume that two of the SGs, Chandler and Faried are on the block for a decent offer. From what I read they love Gallinari but I'd assume if a team is brave enough to gamble on his health, he is a goner too although it would likely take a decently substantial return to make that move.
As for this offseason they didn't do much wrong but they didn't much at all so the franchise is firmly treading the status quo hoping for internal development.
They might be in position to win a few more games if key players stay healthy or else I see a squad peaking in the mid 30s win total.
Projected Win/Loss: 34 - 48
Off-Season Grade: B-
nomansland wrote:nomansland Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
D.J. Augustin
(Look for one of JaKarr Sampson and Axel Toupane to be added here barring a trade)
Draft:
#7 Jamal Murray
#15 Juancho Hernangomez
#19 Malik Beasley
#53 Petr Cornelie (stashed)
#56 traded
Trades:
#56 to Oklahoma City for cash
Joffrey Lauvergne to OKC for OKC's and Memphis' 2nd rounders in 2017
Free Agency:
Darrell Arthur 3/$23m (Last year PO)
Mike Miller 2/$7m (last year ungtd)
Jamal Murray rookie scale
Juancho Hernangomez rookie scale
Malik Beasley rookie scale
D.J. Kennedy 3/$3m (only 50k guaranteed)
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Emmanuel Mudiay, Jameer Nelson
SG: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, D.J. Kennedy
SF: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JaKarr Sampson, Axel Toupane, Mike Miller
PF: Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, Juancho Hernangomez
C: Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic
Needs:
1) Health. Some might say that consolidation is the main thing but it'll be hard to make a decision on that until they see what they have in Gallo, Chandler and Nurkic as far as health goes. On the other hand if all 3 of them are reasonably healthy it could mean the Nuggets sneak into the playoffs.
2) Consolidation. This is a deep and fairly young team that really doesn't have the minutes for everyone who could use them. It's also a team that lacks someone who can take over games on a consistent basis. The 4 spot especially is a position at which an upgrade would push the team to the next level.
3) Patience. The Nuggets are unlikely to make the playoffs and will have to be patient and watch their youngsters develop- and make mistakes- in order to make a leap in the 2017-2018 season. Beyond that they will have to be careful making trades, not being hasty and locking into a deal that will hamper them later on.
Additional Thoughts:
This season will be a bit of a litmus test for coach Mike Malone. He's loved by the organization, by the players and by the fans but he hasn't had 2 consecutive seasons under his belt as a head coach. His job is most likely not in jeopardy but he's going to have to show some mettle to keep the positive momentum going.
Now that Jokic is on the radar and will get more minutes, will he be the real deal? Fellow Nuggets fans will probably give me grief about this but Jokic will no longer be slept on and will have to prove that his stellar advanced stats can be maintained with additional minutes and therefore can contribute to wins in a meaningful way.
The competition at shooting guard should be pretty intense this season. Gary Harris made a big leap last year as a solid all-around player but struggles against bigger 2's on defense, Will Barton works incredibly hard and can explode for stretches but needs to be more consistent, Jamal Murray can shoot the lights out but he may be a season or two away from being NBA ready, and Malik Beasley had awesome potential prior to his injury but once back to form could give a few of those guys a run for their money. Competition in camp and practice often nets positive results for a team so the 2-guard should be an interesting race.
Projected Win/Loss: 38-44 Progress, but not enough to make the playoffs.
Off-Season Grade: B+ The Murray pick was one most teams would have made at that spot but the Beasley and Hernangomez picks were really smart. Hernangomez especially.
Getting Mike Miller to vouch for the organization and consequently getting Wade's endorsement should help the team attract free agents down the road (previously a perennial problem), even if they didn't sign Wade.
And they deserve props for not getting caught up in the FA frenzy and overpaying players that don't make sense for them long term
eathb_au wrote:eathb_au Review
PLAN:
Going into the offseason, Denver had something they haven't had in a long time - about $28.8M in cap space. This was discussed quite a bit on various Nuggets boards on who we would be willing to throw max money at and to be honest outside of LeBron James and Kevin Durant (both would never consider Denver) the options were limited. I personally was accepting of the fact that we needed to overpay to bring in a decent FA but the 2016 FA class wasn't really great for example:
Bradley Beal: Washington were always going to max/match max offers for him and while he provides shooting which Denver needs, he has never performed at a max contract level ever.
Nic Batum: We already have Gallinari, in fact he IS a downgrade to Gallinari if you like your basketball analytics.
Harrison Barnes: LOL.
DeMar Derozan: Poor defender, poor shooter, basically Denver's biggest deficiencies last season.
Howard/Horford/Whiteside: Zero chance they'd consider Denver and our depth with our European centers is decent.
Oddly enough, Denver was apparently really close to signing Wade to a 2-year max. It didn't happen but Wade complimented Denver in their approach to him and I thought it gave Denver good press.
TRANSACTIONS:
We really didn't do anything. (Note this was before the Joffrey trade)
Re-signed Darrell Arthur ($23M/3 years), a great deal which is often complimented by other fans.
Re-signed Mike Miller ($5M/2 years), I know the coaches and players liked him for his veteran-ship... but this is kind of a waste of a roster spot and couldn't we just sign him as a coach?
Drafted and signed Jamal Murray (#7), Juan Hernangomez (#15), Malik Beasley (#19). Kenneth Faried and our picks were rumored to be packaged to move up in the draft (Boston asked for too much for pick #3) but we drafted Jamal Murray who has been quoted by our GM and head coach to be #3 on our big board anyway so that was a big win for us. Love the Hernangomez and Beasley picks. I believe we drafted Hernangomez with the intention of using him as a draft stash but he played so well in the summer league that we brought him over. Also our drafting of European players have been spot on in recent years.
NEEDS:
- Consolidation. We did and still have a lot of tradeable assets. We brought in all 3 first round draft picks in 2016, we will have two first round picks for the 2017 NBA draft. We have players that we will probably not need down the line such as Kenneth Faried, Will Barton, Wilson Chandler, Joffrey Lauvergne and possibly Jusuf Nurkic. I also expect us to put quite a competitive offer to any disgruntled All-Star if they are put on the trade block.
- Backup PG. We lost DJ Augustin who was surprisingly really good for Denver (18 PER for Denver last year). But I can understand why we chose not to counter the offer that Orlando got for him. Still though, I am not sold on Jameer Nelson being the backup PG as he's been pretty terrible for a couple of years now, and Jamal Murray has yet to show that he can play backup PG. As you all know Mudiay was pretty terrible for the first half of last season and our PG position will be weak if he doesn't make a jump from last season.
- A Two-way PF. Faried is an efficient offensive player that will be average defensively because of his height. Darrell Arthur is a good defender who is terrible offensively. I feel Denver needs someone who is good at both ends of the court, ideally one that blocks a lot of shots which covers Nikola Jokic's biggest weakness. I am a big fan of Paul Milsap but I don't think Atlanta intend to trade him.
REVIEW:
We stood pat and didn't do anything. We had max cap space and chose to save it for the much stronger 2017 FA market. We had 3 first round draft picks in the 2016 NBA draft and used them all and they will all be on our roster in the upcoming season. Kenneth Faried is on the trade rumor mill every year but always finishes the upcoming season as our starting PF. But if you look at the profile of the current Denver Nuggets:
PG: Emmanual Mudiay (20 yo) / Jameer Nelson (34 yo)
SG: Gary Harris (21 yo) / Will Barton (25 yo) / Jamal Murray (19 yo) / Malik Beasley (19 yo)
SF: Danillo Galinari (28 yo) / Wilson Chandler (29 yo)
PF: Kenneth Faried (26 yo) / Darrell Arthur (29 yo) / Juan Hernangómez (20 yo)
C: Nikola Jokic (21 yo) / Jusuf Nurkic (22 yo) /
We have a really young roster. 3 of our 5 starters are in their early 20s and are expected to get better. While the idea of adding an All-Star talent is nice, we are not a championship contender until one of Mudiay or Jokic become All-Stars themselves. So for me, I feel it's the right move to continue to progress with this roster and focus on the developments of our young guys. Now some will say why not trade Gallo, Chandler, etc. and mass rebuild by tanking to get a better pick, well look how long it took for the Timberwolves to assemble their current roster (decade plus), look at Philly ruining the team with depth by tanking and going BPA to gamble on that one in a generation type talent. I feel our approach has been working. In 2014 we drafted Gary Harris, Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic. I would never trade a combination of these guys for any of the players drafted in the top 5 of the 2014 draft. I hope we continue to give young guys minutes, try to win as many games as we can, and use the money-ball approach in drafting the right guy.
Projected Win/Loss: 35 - 47 I'm going 35 wins (plus 2 from last year), I think Jokic and Nurkic will have strong seasons but Mudiay won't make that jump yet. Ceiling is 42 wins for me.
Off-Season Grade: B I can't give us an A for the off-season since we didn't do anything but I'll give us a B for building for the future by keeping our assets and not trying an instant rebuild.
There's still more work to do to sort this all out so I can't give a top grade.
