New York Knicks early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava)

[Mystical Apples]

NYK's off-season was nuanced like sledge hammer.

F

[NYKnicksTAPE]

A lot of Pelton's win totals were low so I don't take that model too seriously. He has the Clippers at 46 wins and the Cavs at 52. He has the Wizards as the 5th seed in the East with only 41 wins...

Pelton's predictions average out to 40.97 wins per team, with that .03 off because of rounding. So they aren't systematically lower for everyone.

Yeah, but I can't take his projections seriously. 46 wins for the Clippers? The Jazz going from missing the playoffs to being the 3rd seed? The 5th seed in the EC having 41 wins? So many coaching changes happening this summer and your model doesn't even account for that? Nah

[HartfordWhalers]

A lot of Pelton's win totals were low so I don't take that model too seriously. He has the Clippers at 46 wins and the Cavs at 52. He has the Wizards as the 5th seed in the East with only 41 wins...

Pelton's predictions average out to 40.97 wins per team, with that .03 off because of rounding. So they aren't systematically lower for everyone.

Yeah, but I can't take his projections seriously. 46 wins for the Clippers? The Jazz going from missing the playoffs to being the 3rd seed? The 5th seed in the EC having 41 wins? So many coaching changes happening this summer and your model doesn't even account for that? Nah

Historically, RPM models do pretty well, although there are some issues with them and the stat in general.

Clippers I'm totally at odds with that prediction, and think they will be much better than that. Jazz? I think he undersold it. Pelton predicted 47.6 wins, the ESPN summer forecast panel predicted 45, and the 4 of us predicted an average of 50 wins. Now, *some* of us need to lower some predictions a game or two across the board (or 3 for dbrandon), but even adjusting like that as a panel we agreed with Pelton. Utah has a great team that had a massive hole at pg. Upgrading from what they were running to Hill should result is a very good team.

As for the coaching, would you change your opinion if you found out that there was a coaching factor included when calculating rpm?

[NYKnicksTAPE]

Pelton's predictions average out to 40.97 wins per team, with that .03 off because of rounding. So they aren't systematically lower for everyone.

Yeah, but I can't take his projections seriously. 46 wins for the Clippers? The Jazz going from missing the playoffs to being the 3rd seed? The 5th seed in the EC having 41 wins? So many coaching changes happening this summer and your model doesn't even account for that? Nah

Historically, RPM models do pretty well, although there are some issues with them and the stat in general.

Clippers I'm totally at odds with that prediction, and think they will be much better than that. Jazz? I think he undersold it. Pelton predicted 47.6 wins, the ESPN summer forecast panel predicted 45, and the 4 of us predicted an average of 50 wins. Now, *some* of us need to lower some predictions a game or two across the board (or 3 for dbrandon), but even adjusting like that as a panel we agreed with Pelton. Utah has a great team that had a massive hole at pg. Upgrading from what they were running to Hill should result is a very good team.

As for the coaching, would you change your opinion if you found out that there was a coaching factor included when calculating rpm?

While I do think that the Jazz will be good, I don't think they're going to be 3rd seed in the West or 50 win team good. I'm in the 45 wins camp.

What RPM is projecting for this upcoming season just flies in the face of common sense to me. I see no scenario where the 5th seed in the East has only 41 wins for example. Yeah, I'd take these projections more seriously if they did account for coaching changes. Going from Fisher/Rambis (2 of the worst coaches I've ever seen) to Hornacek is significant IMO and can't just not be taken into account.

[Statlanta]

Couple of thoughts:
The Rose trade commentary should acknowledge his expiring contract as a key part of the deal imo. That deal essentially positions the Knicks to make a max contract offer next season even with the expenditures on Noah and Lee. The other notable facet here is that the Knicks were extremely lacking in Guards getting to the basket and Rose does address that need. I really like RoLo, but if this positions the team to add serious quality max piece next offseason or if the low odds that Rose gets back to peak levels in a contract year (highly unlikely I admit); then the deal becomes a steal imo. At worst, it's a one year move that didn't give up any major assets, just one good player and a raw prospect.

Coming from a team making the same contract gamble with Serge Ibaka, I think Rose's contract cannot be addressed singularly as a boon or a liability. If you count on him freeing cap space for next year(not re-signing) then you are back at the same rut of having a horrible PG situation without him. I don't think it's much of a talking point unless there is good evidence that CP3 wants to play with his friend in Carmelo or that good players want to come to New York next year. Maybe he returns to form but that means you don't have the sexy cap space to entice people to come to your market which is still probably the biggest draw for the Knicks. You didn't lose much in the Ro-Lo deal but I believe the front office only postponed the PG situation.

[giberish]

New York needed two new starters - and potentially a 3rd if they traded Lopez for guard help. They went 1 for 3 in filling those roles.

I liked the Lee signing - IMO he was the 2nd best FA SG deal this summer after Batum (who didn't show any interest in leaving Charlotte). He's similar to Robin Lopez in that he does everything you need a starter at his position to do but doesn't bring bonus extras. Still, a roughly league-average starter on a $12.5M/yr deal looks very good. Given his age he may not work as a starter for the last year or two of his deal but he'll outperform it for the first 2-3 years. Afflalo has been very bad for years so Lee's a significant upgrade.

With the depth of FA centers around, trading Robin Lopez for a starting guard was a reasonable idea. Unfortunately the only starting-quality guards traded this summer were Teague, Hill and Olidipo. As much as Knick (and many other fans) tout Rose as a useful player he isn't any closer to being a credible starter then Calderon. Both are massive defensive liabilities, and while Rose does more on offense most of that more is missed shots and turnovers (if you just look at highlight videos that edit out the missed shots and turnovers you can convince yourself that Rose is good). Granted the FA PG options weren't good (Conley was the only top-20 FA PG and he signed for more than the Knicks could offer. Still, Lin, Delladova and even Rondo are better players then Rose (and Rondo would bring the big name and signed for essentially a 1-year deal).

Having traded Lopez for Rose the Knicks needed a replacement starting center. IMO if they couldn't get a potential difference-maker (Horford, maybe Whiteside, maybe Howard) this was a good place to bargain-shop. With Hernangomez coming over, O'Quinn in-house and Porzingis at 7'2" they could afford to wait to see who slipped through the cracks. Take a flier on Ezeli (also injury issues but younger and cheaper then Noah), Get Monroe for a year for a top-55 protected 2nd when Mil just wants him gone so they can play Henson/Plumlee. BOBAN.

[loserX]

Best move: hiring Hornacek, or rather not leaving everything to Kurt Rambis. Kudos to Phil for being able to see beyond the triangle and take a chance on a guy who *should*...hopefully...be a better coach. I will be interested to see if Hornacek can adapt from Phoenix, where virtually all the offence came from quick guards who could shoot, to a Knicks team where it will have to come from the frontcourt. I liked the Jennings signing too.

Worst move: man, every time the Knicks get themselves into trouble, it always seems to be the same way: giving big, overlong contracts to aging players and then having to ride out the last couple of unproductive years (or give up assets to move them). And they've done it again. I *like* Noah and Lee, and think they will play a useful role short-term in helping Porzingis become a better player. But four years from now I picture those guys stapled to the bench or the injured list and Knicks fans groaning about "not this again". Those contracts should probably have been 2 years, or 2+TO, at most.

As for the Rose trade...I didn't hate it. I absolutely *do* think it was a disguised salary dump on the Knicks' part, and they got a guy who will (if nothing else) sell some tickets/merch.

Will the team be better? Probably. By a lot? Probably not. I like the idea of putting cagey vets around young studs to help them develop, but I think the Knicks should have been more conservative in doing it. I also think they should have somehow found *one* legit young piece to add to the roster to grow with KP.

Somewhere in the C-/D+ range for me. Will probably pick one and immediately change my mind.

[j4remi]

Coming from a team making the same contract gamble with Serge Ibaka, I think Rose's contract cannot be addressed singularly as a boon or a liability. If you count on him freeing cap space for next year(not re-signing) then you are back at the same rut of having a horrible PG situation without him. I don't think it's much of a talking point unless there is good evidence that CP3 wants to play with his friend in Carmelo or that good players want to come to New York next year. Maybe he returns to form but that means you don't have the sexy cap space to entice people to come to your market which is still probably the biggest draw for the Knicks. You didn't lose much in the Ro-Lo deal but I believe the front office only postponed the PG situation.

I definitely agree that this was delaying the inevitable push to address the position long term. But this FA class was pretty limited there imho. Having Rose and BJ expiring gives us a pair of guys who could get back to form and solve our problem (either one if BJ can hit the level he was at right before the injury but I admit both are unlikely), and if they don't they can be sent off to pasture. I'm assuming CP3 becomes the top target in that case as well, but there's also a 1st round pick in hand to potentially target a running partner for KP (because if the PG's flop, we'll have at minimum a decent pick). So it's not that I disagree about this postponing the position, but I just think we'll be in better position to address the need long term next offseason.

[HartfordWhalers]

Coming from a team making the same contract gamble with Serge Ibaka, I think Rose's contract cannot be addressed singularly as a boon or a liability. If you count on him freeing cap space for next year(not re-signing) then you are back at the same rut of having a horrible PG situation without him. I don't think it's much of a talking point unless there is good evidence that CP3 wants to play with his friend in Carmelo or that good players want to come to New York next year. Maybe he returns to form but that means you don't have the sexy cap space to entice people to come to your market which is still probably the biggest draw for the Knicks. You didn't lose much in the Ro-Lo deal but I believe the front office only postponed the PG situation.

I definitely agree that this was delaying the inevitable push to address the position long term. But this FA class was pretty limited there imho. Having Rose and BJ expiring gives us a pair of guys who could get back to form and solve our problem (either one if BJ can hit the level he was at right before the injury but I admit both are unlikely), and if they don't they can be sent off to pasture. I'm assuming CP3 becomes the top target in that case as well, but there's also a 1st round pick in hand to potentially target a running partner for KP (because if the PG's flop, we'll have at minimum a decent pick). So it's not that I disagree about this postponing the position, but I just think we'll be in better position to address the need long term next offseason.

I agree with that very much. But swapping Noah in for Lopez cost 4m in cap room next summer, and imo got a worse player too.

And instead of Lee at 13m and increasing, the Knicks could have done something like Henderson in Philly, or Afflalo in Sac. Gotten a somewhat worse player, but one not dreadful, and kept open the option of upgrading next year.

I could have bit on the idea of the Rose trade as a salary cap dump if they had made better use of the cap space. The Knicks might be one of the very few teams I say this for, but since they weren't throwing out the idea of being competitive now, they should have beaten Atlanta's offer for Dwight.

Rose placeholder / Jennings placeholder
{cheaper/younger sg than Lee}
Melo
Porzingis
Dwight

And then in a year you throw max money at Paul, and when that fails Jrue and then Teague and then etc. As for the the sg, Etwuan Moore might have fit nicely, and him and Dwight would have been similar money to Noah and Lee. {Or as I started to suggest above, you go full on flexible and guys like Ezeli and Gerald Henderson who signed 2nd year mostly ungtd deals and then retry next year with all the cap space}

As is the best long term assets the Knicks gained* this offseason -- Lee -- is at best as good as the long term contract they dumped in Lopez.

*I'm excluding Hermangomez as his rights were gained last year.

[jayjaysee]

Couple of thoughts:
The Rose trade commentary should acknowledge his expiring contract as a key part of the deal imo. That deal essentially positions the Knicks to make a max contract offer next season even with the expenditures on Noah and Lee. The other notable facet here is that the Knicks were extremely lacking in Guards getting to the basket and Rose does address that need. I really like RoLo, but if this positions the team to add serious quality max piece next offseason or if the low odds that Rose gets back to peak levels in a contract year (highly unlikely I admit); then the deal becomes a steal imo. At worst, it's a one year move that didn't give up any major assets, just one good player and a raw prospect.

Coming from a team making the same contract gamble with Serge Ibaka, I think Rose's contract cannot be addressed singularly as a boon or a liability. If you count on him freeing cap space for next year(not re-signing) then you are back at the same rut of having a horrible PG situation without him. I don't think it's much of a talking point unless there is good evidence that CP3 wants to play with his friend in Carmelo or that good players want to come to New York next year. Maybe he returns to form but that means you don't have the sexy cap space to entice people to come to your market which is still probably the biggest draw for the Knicks. You didn't lose much in the Ro-Lo deal but I believe the front office only postponed the PG situation.

So.. what you just said is if Rose is a good PG and they keep him, they won't have cap space for a good PG?

And I don't mind what the Knicks did as much as others. Only thing I really didn't like is Noah. But maybe they can limit his minutes with KP sliding to center or maybe an offseason and a starting job will get his heart/body back into it. Doubtful just like Rose being back.

But the team should be better than last year and Melo still can carry an offense to the level this team will likely need him to, a lot less than last year's but still too much? More depend on how Rose/Jennings combine into a quality PG than Noah imo due to KP being around to take his minutes with KOQ/Melo as serviceable PF's.

[j4remi]

I agree with that very much. But swapping Noah in for Lopez cost 4m in cap room next summer, and imo got a worse player too.

And instead of Lee at 13m and increasing, the Knicks could have done something like Henderson in Philly, or Afflalo in Sac. Gotten a somewhat worse player, but one not dreadful, and kept open the option of upgrading next year.

I could have bit on the idea of the Rose trade as a salary cap dump if they had made better use of the cap space. The Knicks might be one of the very few teams I say this for, but since they weren't throwing in on being competitive now, they should have beaten Atlanta's offer for Dwight.

Rose placeholder / Jennings placeholder
{cheaper/younger sg than Lee}
Melo
Porzingis
Dwight

And then in a year you throw max money at Paul, and when that fails Jrue and then Teague and then etc. As for the the sg, Etwuan Moore might have fit nicely, and him and Dwight would have been similar money to Noah and Lee. {Or as I started to suggest above, you go full on flexible and guys like Ezeli and Gerald Henderson who signed 2nd year mostly ungtd deals and then retry next year with all the cap space}

As is the best long term assets the Knicks gained* this offseason -- Lee -- is at best as good as the long term contract they dumped in Lopez.

*I'm excluding Hermangomez as his rights were gained last year.

I feel you on the idea that the ensuing moves are what make or break the Rose deal. I also agree that the Noah signing is the biggest question mark of the bunch as well as most expensive. Personally, I'd go younger and grab Biyombo because I think that would create one of the great interior defenses league wide with two players who can be around for years to come instead of targeting Noah or Dwight. I do prefer Lee over a lesser rental player, but that's pure opinion (and Etwaun woulda been a really interesting move, I do like that suggestion). If you consider the cap increase next season, Noah will have roughly the same impact that Lopez had on the cap this offseason and Lee's contract starts to look like a nice bargain in terms of the percentage of cap it eats up. I'm also buying into Phil's comments that Holiday wasn't just a throw in (mainly after hearing some nice reviews from Bulls fans).

Here's a load of speculation, so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Phil's long term vet signings coincided with youth being brought in as back-ups by design. Holiday could develop into a similar player to Lee and Hernangomez has the tools to develop into a long term center. The key is that Lee and Noah have to buy those guys time to keep growing and I'll readily admit that the fan base will have their fingers crossed as far as Noah's concerned there.

In theory, next offseason the Knicks will have max space with four starting roles locked in. PG would be empty but then it's Lee, Melo, KP and Noah (which I'll repeat is the scary name here). That means whereas this season, the wealth had to be spread to fill multiple spots, next offseason they can have a singular focus...but this would all sound a lot better if Biyombo or another reliable young C was in that spot I fully admit.

[HartfordWhalers]

I agree with that very much. But swapping Noah in for Lopez cost 4m in cap room next summer, and imo got a worse player too.

And instead of Lee at 13m and increasing, the Knicks could have done something like Henderson in Philly, or Afflalo in Sac. Gotten a somewhat worse player, but one not dreadful, and kept open the option of upgrading next year.

I could have bit on the idea of the Rose trade as a salary cap dump if they had made better use of the cap space. The Knicks might be one of the very few teams I say this for, but since they weren't throwing in on being competitive now, they should have beaten Atlanta's offer for Dwight.

Rose placeholder / Jennings placeholder
{cheaper/younger sg than Lee}
Melo
Porzingis
Dwight

And then in a year you throw max money at Paul, and when that fails Jrue and then Teague and then etc. As for the the sg, Etwuan Moore might have fit nicely, and him and Dwight would have been similar money to Noah and Lee. {Or as I started to suggest above, you go full on flexible and guys like Ezeli and Gerald Henderson who signed 2nd year mostly ungtd deals and then retry next year with all the cap space}

As is the best long term assets the Knicks gained* this offseason -- Lee -- is at best as good as the long term contract they dumped in Lopez.

*I'm excluding Hermangomez as his rights were gained last year.

I feel you on the idea that the ensuing moves are what make or break the Rose deal. I also agree that the Noah signing is the biggest question mark of the bunch as well as most expensive. Personally, I'd go younger and grab Biyombo because I think that would create one of the great interior defenses league wide with two players who can be around for years to come instead of targeting Noah or Dwight. I do prefer Lee over a lesser rental player, but that's pure opinion (and Etwaun woulda been a really interesting move, I do like that suggestion). If you consider the cap increase next season, Noah will have roughly the same impact that Lopez had on the cap this offseason and Lee's contract starts to look like a nice bargain in terms of the percentage of cap it eats up. I'm also buying into Phil's comments that Holiday wasn't just a throw in (mainly after hearing some nice reviews from Bulls fans).

Here's a load of speculation, so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Phil's long term vet signings coincided with youth being brought in as back-ups by design. Holiday could develop into a similar player to Lee and Hernangomez has the tools to develop into a long term center. The key is that Lee and Noah have to buy those guys time to keep growing and I'll readily admit that the fan base will have their fingers crossed as far as Noah's concerned there.

In theory, next offseason the Knicks will have max space with four starting roles locked in. PG would be empty but then it's Lee, Melo, KP and Noah (which I'll repeat is the scary name here). That means whereas this season, the wealth had to be spread to fill multiple spots, next offseason they can have a singular focus...but this would all sound a lot better if Biyombo or another reliable young C was in that spot I fully admit.

I'm not sold Biyombo doesn't kill too much space for Porzingis. That said, Dwight should have been the exact same way. My thinking was Dwight + Melo = big free agent draw for pg's in a year, and that beats out figuring out if Manhimi would be a better fit.

But yeah, Biyombo over Noah would have been an upgrade. However, I'm not sure I wouldn't at that point just go for like Dedmon at 3m a year and see if I can shake a rfa free next year as I'm not fully sold on Biyombo.

[bondom34]

Also tried to get this across on the Knicks board, but the Rose trade hurt because in the end they now needed a C and then spent on Noah. So no Rose, no Noah, no Noah contract. The Noah contract is the worst part of it.

[brackdan70]

A lot of Pelton's win totals were low so I don't take that model too seriously. He has the Clippers at 46 wins and the Cavs at 52. He has the Wizards as the 5th seed in the East with only 41 wins...

Pelton's predictions average out to 40.97 wins per team, with that .03 off because of rounding. So they aren't systematically lower for everyone.

they also seem to gather around the mean. I think he is low on good teams and high on bad teams.

[HartfordWhalers]

A lot of Pelton's win totals were low so I don't take that model too seriously. He has the Clippers at 46 wins and the Cavs at 52. He has the Wizards as the 5th seed in the East with only 41 wins...

Pelton's predictions average out to 40.97 wins per team, with that .03 off because of rounding. So they aren't systematically lower for everyone.

they also seem to gather around the mean. I think he is low on good teams and high on bad teams.

Which would be bad news for the Knicks.

[j4remi]

I'm not sold Biyombo doesn't kill too much space for Porzingis. That said, Dwight should have been the exact same way. My thinking was Dwight + Melo = big free agent draw for pg's in a year, and that beats out figuring out if Manhimi would be a better fit.

But yeah, Biyombo over Noah would have been an upgrade. However, I'm not sure I wouldn't at that point just go for like Dedmon at 3m a year and see if I can shake a rfa free next year as I'm not fully sold on Biyombo.

I hear you on spacing, especially with the Knicks pushing for KP to work on his post game this offseason. If you have doubts about Biyombo, it makes sense to go the affordable route. Personally, I have a heavy bias for high motor bigs and I really think Biyombo is a great fit on teams where the offense doesn't need to rely on him for anything but picks and offensive boards. He's my type of big man, but I've literally been hyping dude for years so I can't even lie about the fact that I'm biased.

[brackdan70]

i think there is a pretty high range of variability with the knicks. stay healthy get some good bounces and flirt with the playoffs. other wise ...... its reportedly a strong draft class.

[basketballwacko2]

I gave them a D I could raise that a 1/2 letter grade if things work out for them. They appear to be attempting to put together the oldest team in the NBA. The Rose trade was terrible for the Knicks they should have gotten paid to take him not give up quality players like Lopez and a prospect in Grant. I have no idea who Mindaugas Kuzminskas is or how to pronounce his name which sounds more like a neurological disorder than a name for a person. They did well to let Derrick Williams go he's awful so that saved them from an F.

I expect them to win 34-38 games.

[basketballwacko2]

As a Nets fan, I loved their off-season.

Now that's just mean.

[DrCoach]

I gave them a D I could raise that a 1/2 letter grade if things work out for them. They appear to be attempting to put together the oldest team in the NBA. The Rose trade was terrible for the Knicks they should have gotten paid to take him not give up quality players like Lopez and a prospect in Grant. I have no idea who Mindaugas Kuzminskas is or how to pronounce his name which sounds more like a neurological disorder than a name for a person. They did well to let Derrick Williams go he's awful so that saved them from an F.

I expect them to win 34-38 games.

Ummm, the Knicks signed 7-8 players 27 yrs old or younger