2016 Trade Deadline Thread

[ReasonablySober]

RS said he doesn't take sports too seriously but would be "legitimately depressed" if the Brewers traded Braun.

Yo, I don't know how much clearer I can make this: I'm totally fine trading Braun.

I'm trying not to hold the previous statement against you too much but when the argument is about which side is being more objective about the likely payoff of keeping Braun, it's hard to ignore. And you haven't exactly backed off from it. You are right about it being a bet, but obviously we're extremely far apart on the expected value of that bet.

And even if it is okay to spend $20m on a player of Braun's likely production in 2018 and 2019, why does it have to be Braun? Why not get what you can for him and then sign some free agent to the exact same 3/$55m deal after the 2018 season, or even a 4/$75m deal after the 2017 season if you think they're ready? You can't get a prime Braun in free agency, but Braun could very well be at 1b by then and we'll be extremely lucky if he's still over a .900 OPS. You can nearly get that kind of production by signing the Chris Carters of the world or trading Marco Estrada for Adam Lind, let alone by paying out $75m. The prospects from LAD are just a bonus. They won't be crappy but I'd be happy with 2 pitchers who are about what Knebel or Will Smith were considered worth when the Brewers acquired them.

There's no other reason you'd want that money to go to Braun rather to a free agent in 2018 except emotional attachment. Outfield is very unlikely to be a position of need by then and Braun doesn't have as much value as a plus-hitter at 1b. If it were realistic to hope for a better return, then by all means play hardball. But play the hand you hold and don't hold on to him out of stubbornness. You have little to gain. You're only spiting yourself if you do that.

Why is it a guarantee that Milwaukee of all places can go out and get a middle of the order bat for those prices?

Here's a good article from today about why the Dodgers would jump all over this.

The trade from the Dodgers’ perspective
The Dodgers would get a good hitter, and they would give up a disgruntled enigma. By adding Brandon McCarthy’s salary, they would even out the monetary advantage that comes with having Puig’s contract.

...

No, that’s it. That’s the trade from the Dodgers’ perspective, and it looks pretty sweet. They would get their middle-of-the-order slugger, and they wouldn’t have to pay $150 million like they would for Yoenis Cespedes. They wouldn’t have to gamble on a player having a down season and possibly on an irreversible slide, like Jose Bautista. They would exchange the slugger they want Puig to be for the slugger that Braun actually is. He fits the Dodgers’ win-now window perfectly.

If not Braun, what are the Dodgers getting for Puig? Prospects? They don’t need more prospects, not unless they’re flipping them to a third team. A starting pitcher who can stay healthy? Sure, but anyone of quality is going to be a hot, hot commodity, and any team giving up such a pitcher probably would be interested in something much different than Puig, whose main selling point is that he’s cheap for two more years, but only two more years. He’s not a rebuilding piece, not a reloading piece, which means he wouldn’t excite most of the teams willing to dump a quality starting pitcher.

An established star — especially one they could get without substantially increasing their current payroll commitments — would be the best possible return for Puig, even if they had to give up prospects in the deal.

Like I said, I'm fine gambling on Braun being a good bat for a few more seasons. If he takes a nose dive at the end of the deal, it's not like he'll be making $30 or $40 million like Pujols or A-Arod. He'll be making $16 million. Big **** deal.

[coolhandluke121]

One good year for Braun, even with close to his usual number of injuries, has sure done a lot for your confidence in him. It's funny that the above article mentions Cespedes and Bautista because what would be a bad OPS+ for them in the last 4 years would be close to Braun's best. Of course Bautista is way down this year, but that's because he'll be 36 in a month. Braun will have 3 full years left on his deal when he turns 35 and he has a much more extensive history injury than Bautista. What Bautista gets this offseason is a good indication of what aging sluggers should be worth in free agency and if anyone gives them what Braun's getting in the last 3 years of his deal, they're idiots. The fact that teams have been bigger idiots when they signed guys like Pujols and A-Rod doesn't excuse it.

Cespedes is no comparison due to age and defense. $150m for him is a much better investment than Braun, and they wouldn't have to give up multiple prospects.

[Outlander]

LOL at Cespedes' worst being Braun's best, more like the other way around. Cespedes is a 750 OPS guy most of his career, had a nice surge with the Mets but wouldn't expect that to last.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, the best thing to do to discredit Braun is probably not to cite Cespedes (came of age at age 29, soon to be 31) and Bautista (suddenly learned to hit for power at 29, now in late 30s). Braun is 33 but he has a massive track record of success, even with his injury history.

[coolhandluke121]

The last 3 years are much more reliable for predicting the next 3. That should go without saying. Also, outlander please for the love of god don't cite OPS for someone who has played so much in Oakland and NYM. Cespedes is still in his prime and has been a comparable hitter to Braun's career average for a couple years now. Braun was a rarity in terms of how young he was when he starting hitting at his peak level but that's water under the bridge in both players' cases. Braun hasn't been anything special since 2012 if you factor injuries into his value, which you have to do in his case because he's shown no ability to regularly play more than 140 games since getting busted for testosterone.

[ReasonablySober]

Yes, for god sake you have to factor in injuries. This is the first year he's been healthy since his suspension year. And lo and behold, he's back to hitting like the league's best. That's not an argument in your favor.

And his contract takes him through his age 36 season, assuming the option is declined.

[ReasonablySober]

The last 3 years are much more reliable for predicting the next 3. That should go without saying. Also, outlander please for the love of god don't cite OPS for someone who has played so much in Oakland and NYM. Cespedes is still in his prime and has been a comparable hitter to Braun's career average for a couple years now. Braun was a rarity in terms of how young he was when he starting hitting at his peak level but that's water under the bridge in both players' cases. Braun hasn't been anything special since 2012 if you factor injuries into his value, which you have to do in his case because he's shown no ability to regularly play more than 140 games since getting busted for testosterone.

It's hilarious you managed to **** up again, when a simple google search would tell you the following:

2012
Home OPS: .937
Away OPS: .791

2013
Home OPS: .787
Away OPS: .684

2014
Home OPS: .750
Away OPS: .752

2015
Home OPS: .750
Away OPS: .976

2016
Home OPS: .919
Away OPS: .912

So yea, in both Oakland years he was better at home. Last year for the first time he was significantly better away.

[coolhandluke121]

It's hilarious you managed to **** up again, when a simple google search would tell you the following:

2012
Home OPS: .937
Away OPS: .791

2013
Home OPS: .787
Away OPS: .684

2014
Home OPS: .750
Away OPS: .752

2015
Home OPS: .750
Away OPS: .976

2016
Home OPS: .919
Away OPS: .912

So yea, in both Oakland years he was better at home. Last year for the first time he was significantly better away.

Bullsh*t. If you're way above average in a pitcher's park and average everywhere else, you're still good. This is the same as with Villar, whose away stats are better than his home stats. You have to average them out, not cherry-pick them. If you play in a pitcher's park most of the time and still manage an ~.800 OPS, that's still good. OPS+ is what matters. I suppose you say I messed this up with Villar, but you never came up with much of a response for why Villar could only manage an .800 OPS at Miller Park. Cuts both ways, like I said in Villar's case.

[coolhandluke121]

Yes, for god sake you have to factor in injuries. This is the first year he's been healthy since his suspension year. And lo and behold, he's back to hitting like the league's best. That's not an argument in your favor.

Not sure if you're going for irony or if it's just unintentional comedy, but you sure take it to a new level when you say he's healthy for the first time since 2012 despite missing 22 games this year, and then you say it's not an argument in my favor.

[ReasonablySober]

You literally said we can't cite OPS because he played the majority of his career in Oakland and NY. Unless you're saying Oakland Coliseum is a hitters park and misunderstood your point, you were hilariously off on Cespedes's performance in those two years.

And jesus, man. You're mistaking injuries with off-days. He's been in the lineup consistently all season. Outside of a six game stretch in May, he's been available every game.

[El Duderino]

Bullsh*t. If you're way above average in a pitcher's park and average everywhere else, you're still good. This is the same as with Villar, whose away stats are better than his home stats. You have to average them out, not cherry-pick them. If you play in a pitcher's park most of the time and still manage an ~.800 OPS, that's still good. OPS+ is what matters. I suppose you say I messed this up with Villar, but you never came up with much of a response for why Villar could only manage an .800 OPS at Miller Park. Cuts both ways, like I said in Villar's case.

I think park effects often get overrated unless someone plays in an extreme pitchers park or a bandbox hitters park. Coors Field is an outlier all to itself. Petco Park also was, but they've moved in their fences. So has Citi Field, home of the Mets.

I remember when we traded Khris Davis to Oakland, some fans on Brewers forums thought his power numbers would decrease by going there and here he sits poised to hit 40 plus homers and an OPS right in line with his days as a Brewer.

You can look at numerous pitchers or hitters over the years who typically hit better at home in what was supposed to be a pitchers park and pitchers who pitched better at home in what was called a hitters park. Then for others, the opposite is true. For some, it pretty much changes yearly.

FWIW, Cespedes certainly has raked since joining the Mets after being not nearly as good in Oakland. Why has that happened? Who knows, sports doesn't always have an easily defined answer as to why big swings in performance happen from some players. Jose Bautista being a prime example. Unless he got away with using roids for all of this time, he went from a fringe player to an elite masher almost overnight.

[coolhandluke121]

This is 1st-semester statistics stuff. The "average" hitter will have an improved OPS in a hitter's park and a worse one in a pitcher's park, but hitters are distributed all over around the mean park effect. (I'm guessing it's a close to a normal distribution.) In other words, scores of hitters will have the opposite effect, sometimes even to extremes, but that doesn't discount park effects at all. Just because a player doesn't exhibit the mean expected splits doesn't mean you can't give him extra credit for a solid OPS in a pitcher's park. It just makes his home hitting all the more remarkable. You still norm his hitting against park effects and come up with a solid hitter. Otherwise you're leaving data out for no reason and cherry-picking home stats or away stats.

The exception I guess would be idiosyncratic park effects like favoring left-handed pull hitters despite having a neutral overall park effect. There's plenty of that too, but it doesn't change the fact that OPS+ is generally much more informative than OPS when looking at guys playing in certain parks. I'm pretty sure Oakland and NYM are still among them.

I'm not really that attached to arguing in favor of Cespedes over Braun though. I don't need that in order to question what Braun will be worth in 3 years. He's a ticking time bomb. If he doesn't get those days off, he'll break down. He always has some kind of nagging tight back or rib cage or a sore wrist or something. I figure he's just inflammation-prone, which is a legitimate thing, and was using synthetic testosterone to recover faster. I don't want the Brewers to be stubborn like the Phillies were when they held on to everyone until they broke down. Howard, Utley, Rollins, Lee, and Papelbon were very productive too when the Phillies should have traded them but they were in denial and they cut off their nose to spite their face by keeping them all so long.

[El Duderino]

I didn't say park effects are completely irrelevant, just overrated by many except when someone plays in an extreme hitters or pitchers park.

[coolhandluke121]

That's definitely true but the fact that Cespedes didn't exhibit the expected splits doesn't take anything away from the fact that playing in Oakland and NYC makes his stats more impressive. It's important to use OPS+ instead of OPS in cases like his.