New York Knicks early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava)

[DrCoach]

As a Nets fan, I loved their off-season.

As a Knick Fan, I can say with full confidence that the Nets are the team with the worst future in the league

[Trader_Joe]

As a Nets fan, I loved their off-season.

As a Knick Fan, I can say with full confidence that the Nets are the team with th worst future in the league

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

[NYKnicksTAPE]

As a Nets fan, I loved their off-season.

As a Knick Fan, I can say with full confidence that the Nets are the team with th worst future in the league

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

How exactly did we sacrifice our future?

[basketballwacko2]

I gave them a D I could raise that a 1/2 letter grade if things work out for them. They appear to be attempting to put together the oldest team in the NBA. The Rose trade was terrible for the Knicks they should have gotten paid to take him not give up quality players like Lopez and a prospect in Grant. I have no idea who Mindaugas Kuzminskas is or how to pronounce his name which sounds more like a neurological disorder than a name for a person. They did well to let Derrick Williams go he's awful so that saved them from an F.

I expect them to win 34-38 games.

Ummm, the Knicks signed 7-8 players 27 yrs old or younger

Rose may be 27 but he's much older in terms of his health, some 26 yr old euro who's name I can't pronounce, Jennings who is a disappointment at best, Maurice Daly Ndour is 24 he's not inspiring me much, Baker, Plumlee, Randle and Topko don't do much for me either. I'm talking about the guys who are gonna play and matter Noah 31 old and broken down, Rose old and broken down, Courtney Lee 31 by the time the season starts, Carmello is 32. I don't care what the average age is this is an old team. Maybe they'll stay healthy maybe they'll over achieve. Not likely.

[RexRyan]

.

Las Vegas books, very smart people, people a lot smarter than anyone on this board, even place the win total at 43.

Vegas books' job is not to predict wins exactly, their job is to get people to bet their money. So unless you think they are adjusting to take bets for the over, their win prediction is likely less than 43.

Kevin Pelton's RPM based model has the Knicks at 34.7.

Vegas always juices New York numbers because of New York money.

Seems like an easy Under to me. F. Phil will be gone in a couple of years, and someone else will put out the dumpster fire....

[HartfordWhalers]

Okay, I expounded a little over on the Knicks board, gonna re-post it here as well:

Come a year from now, here is how the Knicks asset base will have changed based off this offseason:
-- Noah instead of Lopez and 4m more in cap room (and 1 year less of a commitment).
-- No Jerrian Grant
-- Lance and Lee contracts
-- Kuzminskas 1 year contract then rfa
-- Guillermo Hernangomez 3 years left on deal (NYK already had his rights)
-- Bird Rights to Rose (31m cap hit) and Justin Holiday
-- Non Bird Rights to Jennings

Along with the more nebulous
Whatever pick results from this offseason
Whatever development of Porzingis from this offseason
Whatever free agency buzz from this season.

Starting from the top of my list:
-- I see Lopez as a better safer bet than Noah, so having lost cap space to downgrade hurts a lot.
-- Losing Jerrian Grant hurts in the sense that someone else might have cared about him, but I didn't. So no biggie.
-- The Lance and Lee contracts might be fair value, but they also box out upside. Given NYK as a marque market, Melo and Porzingis, I probably would have rather tried for rolling over cap space and targeting a bigger free agent, even if it means striking out and settling again. Not so much that its a big giant deal however. Just that the Henderson/Afflalo type deals would have had close to the same downside protection and kept the upside there.
-- Kuzminskas seems an overpay, but maybe he proves me wrong. I don't see anything great or all that negative here mind you.
-- Hermangomez on a cheap deal is great. But they already had his rights, so I don't want to give too much credit for it here.
-- Do Bird Rights on Rose really matter? The team will have 25m or so without them, and I'm not convinced you want a 5th year deal on Rose as is, so this seems pretty low on the totem pole of importance.
-- Basically almost no rights on Jennings. Yeah, no value there.

Altogether if you ignore the question of what the team might do this year, I see a team that actually deteriorated its asset base that it will have a year from now. As for the buzz and the intangibles of this year, I don't have the confidence that it will result in gains worth that downgrade and the lost opportunity cost to upgrade the future asset base with cap space.

[bondom34]

^^^

To add to that, the PG market next year, not great.

[Trader_Joe]

^^^

To add to that, the PG market next year, not great.

It's much better than this year

Curry
Holiday
Teague
Rose
G.Hill
D.Will
Livingston
Collison
Jennings
Patty Mills
MCW
Schroder


This year was Conley and....Rondo/Lin and......bleh.

[HartfordWhalers]

^^^

To add to that, the PG market next year, not great.

Curry (okay but still)
Teague
Hill
Jrue
Schroeder (restricted)
Mills
Rose
Jennings
Collison
MCW (restricted)
Deron Williams
And whoever else I am missing and half the lottery might be a pg, which matters because the Knicks have a 1st rounder.

So, I disagree and think this was the perfect year not to settle for a pg long term. But losing flexibility and getting worse at center hurts. And if you are waiting on a long term pg solution, I would want to see some long term assets accumulated elsewhere. Anywhere.

[bondom34]

^^^

To add to that, the PG market next year, not great.

It's much better than this year

Curry
Holiday
Teague
Rose
G.Hill
D.Will
Livingston
Collison
Jennings
Patty Mills
MCW
Schroder


This year was Conley and....Rondo/Lin and......bleh.

But who of these guys will be truly available, not RFA, and is worth saving cap space for? The 3 mil in salary difference wouldn't be a deal breaker anywhere except maybe Curry, who's staying.

Who?

and, more importantly.

But for more years.



Beyond Conley, there wasn't really a guy this year that fit what Phil wants from a PG and moves the needle. We went over the options ad nauseam on this board. Rondo didn't fit and the rest of the free agent crop wasn't a crew you'd want to commit long term money to. Actually, the other desirable FA "triangle" guards were more of combo guards and point forwards like Batum, Evan Turner, and maybe even DeRozan who ultimately were also not available or we were priced out of. Imagine if NYK's offseason consisted of Evan Turner, resigning Derrick Williams, and Greivis Vasquez or a long term contract for Jennings, whose health is also in question. Barf city.

Rose may or may not fit that bill depending on health. BUT if he doesn't you're not committed to him. I didn't like the Rose trade in a vacuum but then we watched Rose net Noah (who I like) and Noah helped recruit Lee (who everyone likes) who are long term pieces. Then the Euros were more interested on joining the team. It's why I keep coming back to everyone harping too much on Rose. It's a red herring. The long term acquisitions from the offseason were Noah, Lee, and the Euros... maybe Jennings ultimately and all of those acquisitions were made easier because Derrick Rose was here and his cachet with players around the league.

Who would you realistically sign next offseason that you're saving that space on? I listed available PGs, and the two most likely are Teague and Holiday, who aren't exactly top tier options either. So you kicked the can until next offseason with a really poor overpaid stopgap while overpaying Noah at the same time. I'd have taken a flier on Lin for a few years, kept Lopez, been probably a similar or better team this year and had the same amount of cap space. Lin signed for around 13 mil iirc. Lopez was about 10 mil cheaper than Noah and signed for less years. So a 3 mil difference in salary past this year (while tacking on the last 3 years of Noah) while having a long term very good backup or low tier starter and a decent but healthy center vs. maybe 3 mil extra for a worse long term position. The PG market isn't that great next year either.

I dunno. What's the upside of that team? They're good players but I see that team maxing out at maybe a second round berth. Fully healthy, this team could actually be quite good. If the wheels fall off, they could be quite bad. I'm fine with that. In the NBA, you don't want to be stuck in the middle. Especially if you have your picks, which we finally do.

I like Teague and Holiday a lot better than this year's crop beyond Conley because both have the 3 ball in their arsenal (as opposed to Rondo) and both are better than the rest of that crew. Knicks have also taken fliers on two of next year's FA risk guards so they get first hand analysis. If one or both plays to their potential maybe it's a better team than the one you made. I'm interested to see how far back Jennings comes this year too. He may be the guy. And if they're both terrible, maybe we get to enter the draft at a better position than we do in your scenario.

So also enters my "theory of Melo" being that it's a make or break year for him to decide whether he finishes out his contract here or elsewhere. Phil got him some horses but gave everyone an out. If the wheels fall off, I see the true rebuild beginning around KP.

The Melo theory is fair.

But beyond that, you didn't need to save cap for any of the non max guys next year, nor worry if Rose is expiring. So signa better PG for a few more years who can turn to a backup next year (Lin maybe?), don't waste money on Noah, and have a better/healthy Lopez.

[HartfordWhalers]

Damnit, I took too long there.

[bondom34]

^^^

To add to that, the PG market next year, not great.

Curry (okay but still)
Teague
Hill
Jrue
Schroeder (restricted)
Mills
Rose
Jennings
Collison
MCW (restricted)
Deron Williams
And whoever else I am missing and half the lottery might be a pg, which matters because the Knicks have a 1st rounder.

So, I disagree and think this was the perfect year not to settle for a pg long term. But losing flexibility and getting worse at center hurts. And if you are waiting on a long term pg solution, I would want to see some long term assets accumulated elsewhere. Anywhere.

Its fine if they just settled for a short term guy. But they did that then wasted the saved money, which was the real issue.

[Trader_Joe]

^^^

To add to that, the PG market next year, not great.

It's much better than this year

Curry
Holiday
Teague
Rose
G.Hill
D.Will
Livingston
Collison
Jennings
Patty Mills
MCW
Schroder


This year was Conley and....Rondo/Lin and......bleh.

But who of these guys will be truly available, not RFA, and is worth saving cap space for? The 3 mil in salary difference wouldn't be a deal breaker anywhere except maybe Curry, who's staying.

I could pretty much see all but Curry and Schroder potentially changing teams. Worth it? Dunno.. their next contract and their play will dictate that. But like HW , I think this year was a good year for a stop gap PG.

[Capn'O]

The Melo theory is fair.

But beyond that, you didn't need to save cap for any of the non max guys next year, nor worry if Rose is expiring. So signa better PG for a few more years who can turn to a backup next year (Lin maybe?), don't waste money on Noah, and have a better/healthy Lopez.

I disagree about committing big money for your backups before getting your starting rotation settled. Your scenario brings in good players but has a ceiling.

We disagree about Noah as well, but I well understand the concern. I pegged him as a bounce back guy entering the offseason but easily could be wrong about his resilience. If he busts out, it's a real problem for us.

[bondom34]

It's much better than this year

Curry
Holiday
Teague
Rose
G.Hill
D.Will
Livingston
Collison
Jennings
Patty Mills
MCW
Schroder


This year was Conley and....Rondo/Lin and......bleh.

But who of these guys will be truly available, not RFA, and is worth saving cap space for? The 3 mil in salary difference wouldn't be a deal breaker anywhere except maybe Curry, who's staying.

I could pretty much see all but Curry and Schroder potentially changing teams. Worth it? Dunno.. their next contract and their play will dictate that. But like HW , I think this year was a good year for a stop gap PG.

The bold is the question. So instead of say for argument's sake, Lin at 2/24 ($12 a year) and Lopez at $13/year for a few more seasons, you have an expiring Rose and Noah at $18 for 4 years. Lin could easily be dealt on that contract or at worst you've got 7 mil on the books to unload elsewhere (or just realize he's a great backup). Curry's staying, Holiday and Teague are solid but likely get overpaid IMO. Hill I have no idea but he's not a guy you'd really call a difference maker to me. The rest of the list are RFAs or backups anyway, so really you sacrificed for very little probable return and gave up assets to do so.

[bondom34]

The Melo theory is fair.

But beyond that, you didn't need to save cap for any of the non max guys next year, nor worry if Rose is expiring. So signa better PG for a few more years who can turn to a backup next year (Lin maybe?), don't waste money on Noah, and have a better/healthy Lopez.

I disagree about committing big money for your backups before getting your starting rotation settled. Your scenario brings in good players but has a ceiling.

We disagree about Noah as well, but I well understand the concern. I pegged him as a bounce back guy entering the offseason but easily could be wrong about his resilience. If he busts out, it's a real problem for us.

The thing is it isn't big money. Lin at 2/24 isn't huge when you then don't need Noah at 4/72. You're saving 6 mil in the end and Lin at that price is easy to trade.

[Capn'O]

The Melo theory is fair.

But beyond that, you didn't need to save cap for any of the non max guys next year, nor worry if Rose is expiring. So signa better PG for a few more years who can turn to a backup next year (Lin maybe?), don't waste money on Noah, and have a better/healthy Lopez.

I disagree about committing big money for your backups before getting your starting rotation settled. Your scenario brings in good players but has a ceiling.

We disagree about Noah as well, but I well understand the concern. I pegged him as a bounce back guy entering the offseason but easily could be wrong about his resilience. If he busts out, it's a real problem for us.

The thing is it isn't big money. Lin at 2/24 isn't huge when you then don't need Noah at 4/72. You're saving 6 mil in the end and Lin at that price is easy to trade.

But it's not just 2/24 because we're bidding against New Jersey* in that situation and still need a starting shooting guard. Maybe 15 million for a year of JR Smith


*I know what I said.

[Trader_Joe]

But who of these guys will be truly available, not RFA, and is worth saving cap space for? The 3 mil in salary difference wouldn't be a deal breaker anywhere except maybe Curry, who's staying.

I could pretty much see all but Curry and Schroder potentially changing teams. Worth it? Dunno.. their next contract and their play will dictate that. But like HW , I think this year was a good year for a stop gap PG.

The bold is the question. So instead of say for argument's sake, Lin at 2/24 ($12 a year) and Lopez at $13/year for a few more seasons, you have an expiring Rose and Noah at $18 for 4 years. Lin could easily be dealt on that contract or at worst you've got 7 mil on the books to unload elsewhere (or just realize he's a great backup). Curry's staying, Holiday and Teague are solid but likely get overpaid IMO. Hill I have no idea but he's not a guy you'd really call a difference maker to me. The rest of the list are RFAs or backups anyway, so really you sacrificed for very little probable return and gave up assets to do so.

I like Holiday and Teague and someone's gotta pay them. It's not really overpaying rather the market. I also like George Hill a lot. I think the only option the Knicks really had was Rondo and I'm not sure how that would go. I don't think Lin would have gone back to the Knicks, especially with Melo there.

Anyway...just wanted to point out that the FA class for PGs next year looks much better than it did this year IMO.

[bondom34]

I could pretty much see all but Curry and Schroder potentially changing teams. Worth it? Dunno.. their next contract and their play will dictate that. But like HW , I think this year was a good year for a stop gap PG.

The bold is the question. So instead of say for argument's sake, Lin at 2/24 ($12 a year) and Lopez at $13/year for a few more seasons, you have an expiring Rose and Noah at $18 for 4 years. Lin could easily be dealt on that contract or at worst you've got 7 mil on the books to unload elsewhere (or just realize he's a great backup). Curry's staying, Holiday and Teague are solid but likely get overpaid IMO. Hill I have no idea but he's not a guy you'd really call a difference maker to me. The rest of the list are RFAs or backups anyway, so really you sacrificed for very little probable return and gave up assets to do so.

I like Holiday and Teague and someone's gotta pay them. It's not really overpaying rather the market. I also like George Hill a lot. I think the only option the Knicks really had was Rondo and I'm not sure how that would go. I don't think Lin would have gone back to the Knicks, especially with Melo there.

Anyway...just wanted to point out that the FA class for PGs next year looks much better than it did this year IMO.

Fair, I think it may be better but without a difference maker worth saving for.

I disagree about committing big money for your backups before getting your starting rotation settled. Your scenario brings in good players but has a ceiling.

We disagree about Noah as well, but I well understand the concern. I pegged him as a bounce back guy entering the offseason but easily could be wrong about his resilience. If he busts out, it's a real problem for us.

The thing is it isn't big money. Lin at 2/24 isn't huge when you then don't need Noah at 4/72. You're saving 6 mil in the end and Lin at that price is easy to trade.

But it's not just 2/24 because we're bidding against New Jersey* in that situation and still need a starting shooting guard. Maybe 15 million for a year of JR Smith


*I know what I said.

Well you shouldn't have said that in front of TJ .

[Capn'O]

Well you shouldn't have said that in front of TJ .

He will be placated by my And1s.