New York Knicks early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava)

[Capn'O]

I also like George Hill a lot.

Yes - duh. Hill. I've only been talking about this guy all year as the exact kind of player Phil would target. Good defensive guard with a 3 ball and plays well in system offense.

I think the only option the Knicks really had was Rondo and I'm not sure how that would go. I don't think Lin would have gone back to the Knicks, especially with Melo there.

Rondo, agree 100%. Bad, bad fit with Hornacek and Phil. Unfortunately, with Lin I think it's the reverse - he may have re-signed but Dolan resents him for whatever reasons. Now let's both go grab our ban hammers while this thread gets fully hijacked.

[Trader_Joe]

I also like George Hill a lot.

Yes - duh. Hill. I've only been talking about this guy all year as the exact kind of player Phil would target. Good defensive guard with a 3 ball and plays well in system offense.

I think the only option the Knicks really had was Rondo and I'm not sure how that would go. I don't think Lin would have gone back to the Knicks, especially with Melo there.

Rondo, agree 100%. Bad, bad fit with Hornacek and Phil. Unfortunately, with Lin I think it's the reverse - he may have re-signed but Dolan resents him for whatever reasons. Now let's both go grab our ban hammers while this thread gets fully hijacked.

I dunno, there seems to be some mutual resentment between Lin and the Knicks, plus Atkinson is Lin's guy. Who knows though.

Anyway, the Nets off-season thread is coming up so I'm gonna save my ban hammer for that one

[Capn'O]

I also like George Hill a lot.

Yes - duh. Hill. I've only been talking about this guy all year as the exact kind of player Phil would target. Good defensive guard with a 3 ball and plays well in system offense.

I think the only option the Knicks really had was Rondo and I'm not sure how that would go. I don't think Lin would have gone back to the Knicks, especially with Melo there.

Rondo, agree 100%. Bad, bad fit with Hornacek and Phil. Unfortunately, with Lin I think it's the reverse - he may have re-signed but Dolan resents him for whatever reasons. Now let's both go grab our ban hammers while this thread gets fully hijacked.

I dunno, there seems to be some mutual resentment between Lin and the Knicks, plus Atkinson is Lin's guy. Who knows though.

Anyway, the Nets off-season thread is coming up so I'm gonna save my ban hammer for that one

Everyone seems to like yours. I actually thought it went about as well as it could for you guys. The missed RFAs weren't really big losses but simply resisting the urge to try to make a big play and starting to right the ship was a good step.

[TheDavinciCHODE]

Las Vegas books, very smart people, people a lot smarter than anyone on this board, even place the win total at 43.

Link me one? I might have to bet on this.

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx


click nba props in the left column and scroll down

[TheDavinciCHODE]

So the biggest issues for the Knicks last season were lack of penetration, lack of consistent shooting, lack of legit PG play, lack of any perimeter defense, a bad coach, and a slow, outdated system + injuries to Melo and growing pains from Porzingis....

So in this offseason they upgraded all of those things plus KP is a year older and Melo is healthy....yet everyone projects the same win total?

Can someone please explain that to me? The Knicks won 32 games last season with Joe Calderon and Sasha Vujacic starting and no bench depth and Derek Fisher as head coach.

This season they'll have better depth, better playmaking, better perimeter D, and more consistent shooting with C Lee at the 2. Not to mention that a PnR ball handler and uptempo offense like Hornacek likes will benefit KP big time.

The biggest loss is Lopez, but the guy was nothing more than an average scrappy center.

Las Vegas books, very smart people, people a lot smarter than anyone on this board, even place the win total at 43.

Even factoring in obvious injury concerns, the Knicks are a far better team this season than last, and it's not even close.

As a Knicks fan, I personally wish we had parted ways with Melo and tried a youth movement, and built for our future around Porzingis, but you people are delusional.

If all those players are healthy, yeah, the Knicks will be solid.

But Noah's had nagging issues with plantar fasciitis and other little injuries for a couple of years now. He plays through a lot of stuff. Could he suddenly not have those issues? Yeah, but we don't have a track record that says he will.

Rose has not been the same player since the knee injury. He just hasn't. He was better in the second half of last year, but "better" still doesn't mean "good". He was average or a little above at parts. Could he get back to that point? Maybe, but we don't have a track record that says he will.

Melo's had a few injury issues too, and he's slowly trending downwards as a player. He's still very very good, but on the back side of his career at this point.

Jennings is coming off an Achilles tear, which has a very bad track record as far as those players ever regaining their previous production.

Lopez was just flat better than Noah last season too.

It's entirely possible that everyone stays healthy and is their best version and we all look like idiots. It's just not probable.

but not everyone has to remain healthy this season for the Knicks to be improved. If Noah even plays like an average NBA C and we get average pg play from Rose or Jennings, all of which are highly probable, the knicks will be much improved. The Knicks had Calderon and Vujacic starting in the backcourt. The worst defensive backcourt in recent memory and the least dynamic. No team had a worse starting PG and or starting SG than we did.

Calderon/Vujacic/Afflalo has been turned into Rose/Jennings/Lee....I'm not expecting big years from any of those guys, but they don't need to have big years to be an improvement over last year. They have to be average for the Knicks to improve over last years offense, and average isn't hard.

Rose isn't MVP Rose and never will be, but he has to be respected on offense and the defense needs to account for him. He can still attack the rim and finish. Not through heavy traffic, but still get in the paint and create trouble. Total number of players would could do that last season: 0. Also, Lance Thomas no longer has to be the 4th option on the team. He's comfortably in the 6th/7th man role like he should be in the league.

There's no reason that we should expect average play from Rose/Jennings/Noah. Nobody is expecting big years. The Knicks are improved offensively, defensively, and depth-wise overall this season, and I can tell without watching a game. I watched nearly every game last season and can safely say that the Knicks starting backcourt and bench were some of the worst in recent memory. Has there ever been a worse STARTING backcourt tandem than Calderon/Vujacic?

[Jadoogar]

I get that Hornecek is a good coach but fans shouldn't expect too much of an improvement due to coaching alone. Due to the nature of the sport, talent matters far more than coaching. Especially in the regular season. In the playoffs, coaching matters a lot more because talent levels are closer but having Hornecek is not going to make the Knicks beat great teams in the regular season.

[HartfordWhalers]

Las Vegas books, very smart people, people a lot smarter than anyone on this board, even place the win total at 43.

Link me one? I might have to bet on this.

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx


click nba props in the left column and scroll down

Looks like the line has had to adjust already a bunch:

26039 NYK regular season wins over 43½ +130
26040 NYK regular season wins under 43½ -170

That said, thanks!

[R-DAWG]

There are a few ways to look at the offseason:

1) Same Old Knicks - take whatever small assets you have, get the most marketable names, hope for the best
2) Low risk, high reward - Jerian Grant didn't look like a future star, Robin Lopez has more value as a player you can trade for a future pick, but Courtney Lee (who said he signed bc of Noah) essentially has the same value on the trade market. Rose has 1 year on his deal and Noah is really the only risky contract.
3) They should have traded Melo for future picks and built around Porzingis in free agency
4) "The commissioner doesn't like super teams like us and Golden State" - Derrick Rose

As a die hard Knick fan, I'm in boat number 2. We have Melo, who for all his flaws is still one of the top 25 players in the game. You have a one of the top 5-7 prospects in the game in KP. You rolled the dice on Rose and Noah and all it really costs in terms of net value is Jerian Grant. If Noah is 65% of what he was in Chicago for 65 games he's still better than Lopez. Rose is playing for one last contract. If it works out, it's 2012-2013 again where your a top 4 team in the East with a shot at the conference finals and max cap space next offseason (Chris Paul joining Melo and KP if the Clips go down early again, very real possibility). If it doesn't, you trade Carmelo at the deadline for basically the same package you would get from him on draft night, you trade Courtney Lee for the same level of pick you would have traded Lopez for, and the Noah contract isn't an issue because your rebuilding through the draft.

The right move in terms of the closest way of building a contender would have been to trade Melo for future assets. But as a fan, the idea of having a pretender type team for a few years after what most of the last 15 years have been like is ok. You can always tank and rebuild through the draft. And remember, the Knicks have the potential franchise guy. That's better than having a treasure chest of future picks.

[R-DAWG]

Couple of thoughts:
The Rose trade commentary should acknowledge his expiring contract as a key part of the deal imo. That deal essentially positions the Knicks to make a max contract offer next season even with the expenditures on Noah and Lee. The other notable facet here is that the Knicks were extremely lacking in Guards getting to the basket and Rose does address that need. I really like RoLo, but if this positions the team to add serious quality max piece next offseason or if the low odds that Rose gets back to peak levels in a contract year (highly unlikely I admit); then the deal becomes a steal imo. At worst, it's a one year move that didn't give up any major assets, just one good player and a raw prospect.

Coming from a team making the same contract gamble with Serge Ibaka, I think Rose's contract cannot be addressed singularly as a boon or a liability. If you count on him freeing cap space for next year(not re-signing) then you are back at the same rut of having a horrible PG situation without him. I don't think it's much of a talking point unless there is good evidence that CP3 wants to play with his friend in Carmelo or that good players want to come to New York next year. Maybe he returns to form but that means you don't have the sexy cap space to entice people to come to your market which is still probably the biggest draw for the Knicks. You didn't lose much in the Ro-Lo deal but I believe the front office only postponed the PG situation.

I don't see why CP3 to the Knicks is such a long shot. We know Paul and Melo are friends. They spoke about it at Melo's wedding. NY potentially offers Paul and an inside-out 2 way big (KP), an elite perimeter scorer (Melo) and a solid 3/D wing, in the eastern conference no less. Many believe the Clippers have peaked. If the Knicks have a good season and the Clippers get knocked out early this is a very real possibility.

I think the biggest thing to look at for the Knicks this offseason is that they didn't give up any future draft picks. They own all their future 1st round picks for the first time in 12 years. Yet, if everyone is healthy they have competitive team around Melo and KP with a flexible roster moving forward. Like I said, it's easy to look at it and say "same old Knicks" or "they didn't what Brooklyn did with KG/PP". But really the worst case scenario is they are bad and they have their pick. Low risk, medium reward.

[Statlanta]

I don't see why CP3 to the Knicks is such a long shot. We know Paul and Melo are friends. They spoke about it at Melo's wedding. NY potentially offers Paul and an inside-out 2 way big (KP), an elite perimeter scorer (Melo) and a solid 3/D wing, in the eastern conference no less. Many believe the Clippers have peaked. If the Knicks have a good season and the Clippers get knocked out early this is a very real possibility.

I think the biggest thing to look at for the Knicks this off-season is that they didn't give up any future draft picks. They own all their future 1st round picks for the first time in 12 years. Yet, if everyone is healthy they have competitive team around Melo and KP with a flexible roster moving forward. Like I said, it's easy to look at it and say "same old Knicks" or "they didn't what Brooklyn did with KG/PP". But really the worst case scenario is they are bad and they have their pick. Low risk, medium reward.

Yeah they didn't give up picks this off-season but I think it depends on the grader whether to weight the past in the off-season grade. It seems like this is the potential regular season situations the Knicks have

Bad season + Injuries to Rose, draft pick
Bad season + No injuries bad to average Rose, draft pick
Bad season + No injuries good Rose, draft pick
Good season + bad Rose/injuries, enticing FA situation
Good season + average Rose, enticing FA situation
Good season + MVP Rose, enticing FA situation

I think 3 and 6 are the least likely scenarios so that leaves the situation hoping D Rose is good enough to get the playoffs but average enough to be enticing for an upgrade in the PG siutation. Who knows if CP3 comes but if the season plays out favorably New York probably has the best non-LA chance to acquire him. I think it is like you said low risk, medium reward but again many other teams are doing other gambles that have different upside and I'm not sure if this one separates the Knicks from the pack(4-12 seeds)

[R-DAWG]

I don't see why CP3 to the Knicks is such a long shot. We know Paul and Melo are friends. They spoke about it at Melo's wedding. NY potentially offers Paul and an inside-out 2 way big (KP), an elite perimeter scorer (Melo) and a solid 3/D wing, in the eastern conference no less. Many believe the Clippers have peaked. If the Knicks have a good season and the Clippers get knocked out early this is a very real possibility.

I think the biggest thing to look at for the Knicks this off-season is that they didn't give up any future draft picks. They own all their future 1st round picks for the first time in 12 years. Yet, if everyone is healthy they have competitive team around Melo and KP with a flexible roster moving forward. Like I said, it's easy to look at it and say "same old Knicks" or "they didn't what Brooklyn did with KG/PP". But really the worst case scenario is they are bad and they have their pick. Low risk, medium reward.

Yeah they didn't give up picks this off-season but I think it depends on the grader whether to weight the past in the off-season grade. It seems like this is the potential regular season situations the Knicks have

Bad season + Injuries to Rose, draft pick
Bad season + No injuries bad to average Rose, draft pick
Bad season + No injuries good Rose, draft pick
Good season + bad Rose/injuries, enticing FA situation
Good season + average Rose, enticing FA situation
Good season + MVP Rose, enticing FA situation

I think 3 and 6 are the least likely scenarios so that leaves the situation hoping D Rose is good enough to get the playoffs but average enough to be enticing for an upgrade in the PG siutation. Who knows if CP3 comes but if the season plays out favorably New York probably has the best non-LA chance to acquire him. I think it is like you said low risk, medium reward but again many other teams are doing other gambles that have different upside and I'm not sure if this one separates the Knicks from the pack(4-12 seeds)

What were the alternate options??? Overpay for mediocre free agents and have no flexibility? Stay pat and maybe win 35 games? Trade Melo and rebuild, yes that makes the most sense long term, but you understand why the organization took the route of a 50% chance to have an enticing FA situation and 50% chance of having a good draft pick. It's really good risk reward IMO.

[Capn'O]

What were the alternate options??? Overpay for mediocre free agents and have no flexibility? Stay pat and maybe win 35 games? Trade Melo and rebuild, yes that makes the most sense long term, but you understand why the organization took the route of a 50% chance to have an enticing FA situation and 50% chance of having a good draft pick. It's really good risk reward IMO.

Also, I think Melo didn't want to leave yet and it's his call when he does.



The mechanics of the Knicks' moves cause some people to look more negatively at them, imo. If instead the Knicks had:

Traded: Lopez, Calderon, and Grant
For: Noah, Holiday, and the Bulls 2017 2nd rounder
Then signed Rose to a one year deal at his current contract, somehow gaining Bird rights
And everything else remains the same

I think people would view it much differently despite the same player movement. Rose is then viewed as a 1 year risk/reward situation paid highly in a competitive market and and is compared with a relatively poor FA point guard market. In the trade they took on some risk but also dumped dead weight and gained an asset. Not A+ by any stretch but not the utter disdain that they get by "losing" a trade and committing risk dollars in free agency.

[dakomish23]

As a Nets fan, I loved their off-season.

As a Knick Fan, I can say with full confidence that the Nets are the team with th worst future in the league

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

Really? How? No one wanted to your money this offseason. Suddenly they're going to want it in the next few years?

And unlike you guys, we have every first round pick moving forward.

So no one wants to sign with you and you don't control your own pick for another 2 years. We have a stud prospect with a high trajectory.

Yet you're confident that your team will be as good or better than the Knicks who could have near max cap space the next two offseasons and has assets they could move in a deal to get better.

Difference between what you guys did and what we did is simple: we didn't cut our safety net in our swing for the fences. You guys sacrificed your future. The Knicks didn't sacrifice ****.

The only reason some consider this offseason a success for BKN is because it was a post apocalyptic wasteland and you really couldn't make that situation much worse outside of signing long term deals.

This is the type of nonsense I hate from people. I'm not sold this NYK team will be anything great. I think they can win anywhere from 30-49 games. Maybe DRose sucks and Noah can't stay healthy. Doesn't matter to me because we suck, we have or pick.

Yet we sacrificed our future.

Hate the moves they made or the fit. Say Melo is passed his prime and the bench sucks. But don't say something completely false.

[Trader_Joe]

As a Knick Fan, I can say with full confidence that the Nets are the team with th worst future in the league

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

Really? How? No one wanted to your money this offseason. Suddenly they're going to want it in the next few years?

And unlike you guys, we have every first round pick moving forward.

So no one wants to sign with you and you don't control your own pick for another 2 years. We have a stud prospect with a high trajectory.

Yet you're confident that your team will be as good or better than the Knicks who could have near max cap space the next two offseasons and has assets they could move in a deal to get better.

Difference between what you guys did and what we did is simple: we didn't cut our safety net in our swing for the fences. You guys sacrificed your future. The Knicks didn't sacrifice ****.

The only reason some consider this offseason a success for BKN is because it was a post apocalyptic wasteland and you really couldn't make that situation much worse outside of signing long term deals.

This is the type of nonsense I hate from people. I'm not sold this NYK team will be anything great. I think they can win anywhere from 30-49 games. Maybe DRose sucks and Noah can't stay healthy. Doesn't matter to me because we suck, we have or pick.

Yet we sacrificed our future.

Hate the moves they made or the fit. But don't say something completely false.

Trying reading what I wrote..

The Nets have a "chance" to "catch up" in a few years.
Why is that possible?
Melo might be gone
Noah could be an albatross of a contract and done
C.Lee will be mid 30's.
Your 1st rounders should be in the teens or early 20s while the team tries to compete.
etc...

During that time the Nets won't be trying to win, rather trying to think about the future in every way possible. They will be turning any veterans into picks no matter how measly, they will be throwing huge offers at young guys with potential, they will hope to develop RHJ, LeVert, CMC, Whitehead.. etc. Then finally in 2019 they have their picks back. Will it all come together? Probably not... thus I said there is a "chance".

No need to get so defensive.

[dakomish23]

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

Really? How? No one wanted to your money this offseason. Suddenly they're going to want it in the next few years?

And unlike you guys, we have every first round pick moving forward.

So no one wants to sign with you and you don't control your own pick for another 2 years. We have a stud prospect with a high trajectory.

Yet you're confident that your team will be as good or better than the Knicks who could have near max cap space the next two offseasons and has assets they could move in a deal to get better.

Difference between what you guys did and what we did is simple: we didn't cut our safety net in our swing for the fences. You guys sacrificed your future. The Knicks didn't sacrifice ****.

The only reason some consider this offseason a success for BKN is because it was a post apocalyptic wasteland and you really couldn't make that situation much worse outside of signing long term deals.

This is the type of nonsense I hate from people. I'm not sold this NYK team will be anything great. I think they can win anywhere from 30-49 games. Maybe DRose sucks and Noah can't stay healthy. Doesn't matter to me because we suck, we have or pick.

Yet we sacrificed our future.

Hate the moves they made or the fit. But don't say something completely false.

Trying reading what I wrote..

The Nets have a "chance" to "catch up" in a few years.
Why is that possible?
Melo might be gone
Noah could be an albatross of a contract and done
C.Lee will be mid 30's.
Your 1st rounders should be in the teens or early 20s while the team tries to compete.
etc...

During that time the Nets won't be trying to win, rather trying to think about the future in every way possible. They will be turning any veterans into picks no matter how measly, they will be throwing huge offers at young guys with potential, they will hope to develop RHJ, LeVert, CMC, Whitehead.. etc. Then finally in 2019 they have their picks back. Will it all come together? Probably not... thus I said there is a "chance".

No need to get so defensive.

Apologies if it came off defensive. I just get pissed when I hear statements made that are not true IMO.

I don't see Noah as cap crippling when we will near max cap space next year and likely the following year assuming Melo opts out and other guys coming off the books. Cap crippling is what the Amare contract was. It was almost 35% of the cap. Noah is half that.

I personally wouldn't of done the Noah deal for the length of time. I wanted to roll it over to 2017 and take the likely lottery pick that would of came with that decision. I was fine with trading for vets on expiring deals. That's the primary reason I was ok with the DRose deal. I always factored in moving RoLo at some point to get near 70 mil in cap space for 2017. I wouldn't of included Grant and now we are desperate for a 3rd PG. Instead of Noah, I would of traded for Bogut.

I can deal with the 2011 contender jokes (that make zero sense considering Noah and Melo were both studs in 2014). I can deal with DRose injury trolls. I can deal with the Melo isn't a winner narrative. What I can't stand is the idea that this is the same old Knicks type of acquisitions. It absolutely is not simply by having their draft picks. They did not sacrifice the future because they have their safety nets in place in case of an epic failure. Which I admit is very much in play.

[R-DAWG]

As a Nets fan, I loved their off-season.

As a Knick Fan, I can say with full confidence that the Nets are the team with th worst future in the league

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

Trader Joe - please clarify this point. What exactly did the Knicks sacrifice outside of the Noah contract?

Jerian Grant -> they did get Justin Holiday back in the deal
Langston Galloway -> nice hustle/budget player but was going to lose minutes with Jennings/Holiday
Future Draft Picks -> None traded
Ability to turn Lopez into a mid to late 1st -> Replaced by C. Lee (who said he wouldn't have come w/o Rose and Noah)
Future Cap Space -> Even with Noah contract they have a max slot available
Porzingis ->Still on team

So while I agree the Noah contract is questionable at best, I fail to see how the Knicks sacrificed their future this summer. Best case, they are competitive this season and become real players in free agency next summer - either for a Chris Paul or even a Jeff Teague + another player scenario. Worst case, they are bad and have their draft pick plus all future picks.

And define relevant. The Knicks did exactly what the Nets did in 2013 without mortgaging the future for it. It got Brooklyn a close to 50 win season and into the 2nd rd of the playoffs. If you live in New York you understand how relevant and fun it is in the city when those seasons happen because they are few and far between.

[R-DAWG]

Okay, I expounded a little over on the Knicks board, gonna re-post it here as well:

Come a year from now, here is how the Knicks asset base will have changed based off this offseason:
-- Noah instead of Lopez and 4m more in cap room (and 1 year less of a commitment).
-- No Jerrian Grant
-- Lance and Lee contracts
-- Kuzminskas 1 year contract then rfa
-- Guillermo Hernangomez 3 years left on deal (NYK already had his rights)
-- Bird Rights to Rose (31m cap hit) and Justin Holiday
-- Non Bird Rights to Jennings

Along with the more nebulous
Whatever pick results from this offseason
Whatever development of Porzingis from this offseason
Whatever free agency buzz from this season.

Starting from the top of my list:
-- I see Lopez as a better safer bet than Noah, so having lost cap space to downgrade hurts a lot.
-- Losing Jerrian Grant hurts in the sense that someone else might have cared about him, but I didn't. So no biggie.
-- The Lance and Lee contracts might be fair value, but they also box out upside. Given NYK as a marque market, Melo and Porzingis, I probably would have rather tried for rolling over cap space and targeting a bigger free agent, even if it means striking out and settling again. Not so much that its a big giant deal however. Just that the Henderson/Afflalo type deals would have had close to the same downside protection and kept the upside there.
-- Kuzminskas seems an overpay, but maybe he proves me wrong. I don't see anything great or all that negative here mind you.
-- Hermangomez on a cheap deal is great. But they already had his rights, so I don't want to give too much credit for it here.
-- Do Bird Rights on Rose really matter? The team will have 25m or so without them, and I'm not convinced you want a 5th year deal on Rose as is, so this seems pretty low on the totem pole of importance.
-- Basically almost no rights on Jennings. Yeah, no value there.

Altogether if you ignore the question of what the team might do this year, I see a team that actually deteriorated its asset base that it will have a year from now. As for the buzz and the intangibles of this year, I don't have the confidence that it will result in gains worth that downgrade and the lost opportunity cost to upgrade the future asset base with cap space.

But those fair value contracts for quality role players can be moved, most likely for value. So upside risk is you get 2 good 3 and D players that can be moved for late 1st/early 2nd rd picks, maybe a little better.

re: Jennings - 1 year of potentially a starting caliber backup PG. Maybe no long term value but your missing the point - the Knicks are trying to make the playoffs. Great risk/reward for a year.

[HartfordWhalers]

Okay, I expounded a little over on the Knicks board, gonna re-post it here as well:

Come a year from now, here is how the Knicks asset base will have changed based off this offseason:
-- Noah instead of Lopez and 4m more in cap room (and 1 year less of a commitment).
-- No Jerrian Grant
-- Lance and Lee contracts
-- Kuzminskas 1 year contract then rfa
-- Guillermo Hernangomez 3 years left on deal (NYK already had his rights)
-- Bird Rights to Rose (31m cap hit) and Justin Holiday
-- Non Bird Rights to Jennings

Along with the more nebulous
Whatever pick results from this offseason
Whatever development of Porzingis from this offseason
Whatever free agency buzz from this season.

Starting from the top of my list:
-- I see Lopez as a better safer bet than Noah, so having lost cap space to downgrade hurts a lot.
-- Losing Jerrian Grant hurts in the sense that someone else might have cared about him, but I didn't. So no biggie.
-- The Lance and Lee contracts might be fair value, but they also box out upside. Given NYK as a marque market, Melo and Porzingis, I probably would have rather tried for rolling over cap space and targeting a bigger free agent, even if it means striking out and settling again. Not so much that its a big giant deal however. Just that the Henderson/Afflalo type deals would have had close to the same downside protection and kept the upside there.
-- Kuzminskas seems an overpay, but maybe he proves me wrong. I don't see anything great or all that negative here mind you.
-- Hermangomez on a cheap deal is great. But they already had his rights, so I don't want to give too much credit for it here.
-- Do Bird Rights on Rose really matter? The team will have 25m or so without them, and I'm not convinced you want a 5th year deal on Rose as is, so this seems pretty low on the totem pole of importance.
-- Basically almost no rights on Jennings. Yeah, no value there.

Altogether if you ignore the question of what the team might do this year, I see a team that actually deteriorated its asset base that it will have a year from now. As for the buzz and the intangibles of this year, I don't have the confidence that it will result in gains worth that downgrade and the lost opportunity cost to upgrade the future asset base with cap space.

But those fair value contracts for quality role players can be moved, most likely for value. So upside risk is you get 2 good 3 and D players that can be moved for late 1st/early 2nd rd picks, maybe a little better.

re: Jennings - 1 year of potentially a starting caliber backup PG. Maybe no long term value but your missing the point - the Knicks are trying to make the playoffs. Great risk/reward for a year.

I think it is safe to say that we have historically disagreed rather dramatically on how much value the Knicks can get from their average or sub average players while also clearing cap space.

[R-DAWG]

^^^

To add to that, the PG market next year, not great.

It's much better than this year

Curry
Holiday
Teague
Rose
G.Hill
D.Will
Livingston
Collison
Jennings
Patty Mills
MCW
Schroder


This year was Conley and....Rondo/Lin and......bleh.

But who of these guys will be truly available, not RFA, and is worth saving cap space for? The 3 mil in salary difference wouldn't be a deal breaker anywhere except maybe Curry, who's staying.

Who would you realistically sign next offseason that you're saving that space on? I listed available PGs, and the two most likely are Teague and Holiday, who aren't exactly top tier options either. So you kicked the can until next offseason with a really poor overpaid stopgap while overpaying Noah at the same time. I'd have taken a flier on Lin for a few years, kept Lopez, been probably a similar or better team this year and had the same amount of cap space. Lin signed for around 13 mil iirc. Lopez was about 10 mil cheaper than Noah and signed for less years. So a 3 mil difference in salary past this year (while tacking on the last 3 years of Noah) while having a long term very good backup or low tier starter and a decent but healthy center vs. maybe 3 mil extra for a worse long term position. The PG market isn't that great next year either.

I dunno. What's the upside of that team? They're good players but I see that team maxing out at maybe a second round berth. Fully healthy, this team could actually be quite good. If the wheels fall off, they could be quite bad. I'm fine with that. In the NBA, you don't want to be stuck in the middle. Especially if you have your picks, which we finally do.

I like Teague and Holiday a lot better than this year's crop beyond Conley because both have the 3 ball in their arsenal (as opposed to Rondo) and both are better than the rest of that crew. Knicks have also taken fliers on two of next year's FA risk guards so they get first hand analysis. If one or both plays to their potential maybe it's a better team than the one you made. I'm interested to see how far back Jennings comes this year too. He may be the guy. And if they're both terrible, maybe we get to enter the draft at a better position than we do in your scenario.

So also enters my "theory of Melo" being that it's a make or break year for him to decide whether he finishes out his contract here or elsewhere. Phil got him some horses but gave everyone an out. If the wheels fall off, I see the true rebuild beginning around KP.

The Melo theory is fair.

But beyond that, you didn't need to save cap for any of the non max guys next year, nor worry if Rose is expiring. So signa better PG for a few more years who can turn to a backup next year (Lin maybe?), don't waste money on Noah, and have a better/healthy Lopez.

I'd take 1 year of Rose/Jennings with a shot at Chris Paul next offseason. Sometimes you have to take risks.

[Trader_Joe]

As a Knick Fan, I can say with full confidence that the Nets are the team with th worst future in the league

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

Trader Joe - please clarify this point. What exactly did the Knicks sacrifice outside of the Noah contract?

Jerian Grant -> they did get Justin Holiday back in the deal
Langston Galloway -> nice hustle/budget player but was going to lose minutes with Jennings/Holiday
Future Draft Picks -> None traded
Ability to turn Lopez into a mid to late 1st -> Replaced by C. Lee (who said he wouldn't have come w/o Rose and Noah)
Future Cap Space -> Even with Noah contract they have a max slot available
Porzingis ->Still on team

So while I agree the Noah contract is questionable at best, I fail to see how the Knicks sacrificed their future this summer. Best case, they are competitive this season and become real players in free agency next summer - either for a Chris Paul or even a Jeff Teague + another player scenario. Worst case, they are bad and have their draft pick plus all future picks.

And define relevant. The Knicks did exactly what the Nets did in 2013 without mortgaging the future for it. It got Brooklyn a close to 50 win season and into the 2nd rd of the playoffs. If you live in New York you understand how relevant and fun it is in the city when those seasons happen because they are few and far between.

HW summed it up well.
Didn't like the Noah deal, Lee deal was better but he will be in his mid 30's when the deal is up. Those two moves (and to a lesser extent the Rose) solidified they are building around Melo in the short term which I think limits their future some.