New York Knicks early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava)

[bondom34]

It's much better than this year

Curry
Holiday
Teague
Rose
G.Hill
D.Will
Livingston
Collison
Jennings
Patty Mills
MCW
Schroder


This year was Conley and....Rondo/Lin and......bleh.

But who of these guys will be truly available, not RFA, and is worth saving cap space for? The 3 mil in salary difference wouldn't be a deal breaker anywhere except maybe Curry, who's staying.

I dunno. What's the upside of that team? They're good players but I see that team maxing out at maybe a second round berth. Fully healthy, this team could actually be quite good. If the wheels fall off, they could be quite bad. I'm fine with that. In the NBA, you don't want to be stuck in the middle. Especially if you have your picks, which we finally do.

I like Teague and Holiday a lot better than this year's crop beyond Conley because both have the 3 ball in their arsenal (as opposed to Rondo) and both are better than the rest of that crew. Knicks have also taken fliers on two of next year's FA risk guards so they get first hand analysis. If one or both plays to their potential maybe it's a better team than the one you made. I'm interested to see how far back Jennings comes this year too. He may be the guy. And if they're both terrible, maybe we get to enter the draft at a better position than we do in your scenario.

So also enters my "theory of Melo" being that it's a make or break year for him to decide whether he finishes out his contract here or elsewhere. Phil got him some horses but gave everyone an out. If the wheels fall off, I see the true rebuild beginning around KP.

The Melo theory is fair.

But beyond that, you didn't need to save cap for any of the non max guys next year, nor worry if Rose is expiring. So signa better PG for a few more years who can turn to a backup next year (Lin maybe?), don't waste money on Noah, and have a better/healthy Lopez.

I'd take 1 year of Rose/Jennings with a shot at Chris Paul next offseason. Sometimes you have to take risks.

To be honest, I don't see a shot at Chris Paul. I also don't know if getting mid 30s Chris Paul added to the Knicks makes much a difference. But more I highly doubt he'd leave LA for it.

[R-DAWG]

Really? How? No one wanted to your money this offseason. Suddenly they're going to want it in the next few years?

And unlike you guys, we have every first round pick moving forward.

So no one wants to sign with you and you don't control your own pick for another 2 years. We have a stud prospect with a high trajectory.

Yet you're confident that your team will be as good or better than the Knicks who could have near max cap space the next two offseasons and has assets they could move in a deal to get better.

Difference between what you guys did and what we did is simple: we didn't cut our safety net in our swing for the fences. You guys sacrificed your future. The Knicks didn't sacrifice ****.

The only reason some consider this offseason a success for BKN is because it was a post apocalyptic wasteland and you really couldn't make that situation much worse outside of signing long term deals.

This is the type of nonsense I hate from people. I'm not sold this NYK team will be anything great. I think they can win anywhere from 30-49 games. Maybe DRose sucks and Noah can't stay healthy. Doesn't matter to me because we suck, we have or pick.

Yet we sacrificed our future.

Hate the moves they made or the fit. But don't say something completely false.

Trying reading what I wrote..

The Nets have a "chance" to "catch up" in a few years.
Why is that possible?
Melo might be gone
Noah could be an albatross of a contract and done
C.Lee will be mid 30's.
Your 1st rounders should be in the teens or early 20s while the team tries to compete.
etc...

During that time the Nets won't be trying to win, rather trying to think about the future in every way possible. They will be turning any veterans into picks no matter how measly, they will be throwing huge offers at young guys with potential, they will hope to develop RHJ, LeVert, CMC, Whitehead.. etc. Then finally in 2019 they have their picks back. Will it all come together? Probably not... thus I said there is a "chance".

No need to get so defensive.

Apologies if it came off defensive. I just get pissed when I hear statements made that are not true IMO.

I don't see Noah as cap crippling when we will near max cap space next year and likely the following year assuming Melo opts out and other guys coming off the books. Cap crippling is what the Amare contract was. It was almost 35% of the cap. Noah is half that.

I personally wouldn't of done the Noah deal for the length of time. I wanted to roll it over to 2017 and take the likely lottery pick that would of came with that decision. I was fine with trading for vets on expiring deals. That's the primary reason I was ok with the DRose deal. I always factored in moving RoLo at some point to get near 70 mil in cap space for 2017. I wouldn't of included Grant and now we are desperate for a 3rd PG. Instead of Noah, I would of traded for Bogut.

I can deal with the 2011 contender jokes (that make zero sense considering Noah and Melo were both studs in 2014). I can deal with DRose injury trolls. I can deal with the Melo isn't a winner narrative. What I can't stand is the idea that this is the same old Knicks type of acquisitions. It absolutely is not simply by having their draft picks. They did not sacrifice the future because they have their safety nets in place in case of an epic failure. Which I admit is very much in play.

These acquisitions are same old Knicks type of acquisitions. The risk reward is just better and reasonable.

[Woody Allen]

I find the weirdest thing about their offseason to be Rose - Jennings pairing. Two players with serious shortcomings, and actually very similar shortcomings.

[R-DAWG]

No doubt.
That's why I was glad NY did what they did. They got better but not enough to become a relevant team and sacrificed their future in the process. BK actually has a chance to catch up in 2-3 years.

Trader Joe - please clarify this point. What exactly did the Knicks sacrifice outside of the Noah contract?

Jerian Grant -> they did get Justin Holiday back in the deal
Langston Galloway -> nice hustle/budget player but was going to lose minutes with Jennings/Holiday
Future Draft Picks -> None traded
Ability to turn Lopez into a mid to late 1st -> Replaced by C. Lee (who said he wouldn't have come w/o Rose and Noah)
Future Cap Space -> Even with Noah contract they have a max slot available
Porzingis ->Still on team

So while I agree the Noah contract is questionable at best, I fail to see how the Knicks sacrificed their future this summer. Best case, they are competitive this season and become real players in free agency next summer - either for a Chris Paul or even a Jeff Teague + another player scenario. Worst case, they are bad and have their draft pick plus all future picks.

And define relevant. The Knicks did exactly what the Nets did in 2013 without mortgaging the future for it. It got Brooklyn a close to 50 win season and into the 2nd rd of the playoffs. If you live in New York you understand how relevant and fun it is in the city when those seasons happen because they are few and far between.

HW summed it up well.
Didn't like the Noah deal, Lee deal was better but he will be in his mid 30's when the deal is up. Those two moves (and to a lesser extent the Rose) solidified they are building around Melo in the short term which I think limits their future some.

They have been very open that they are building around Melo right now. No one will disagree with that. And to be honest, it looks like they have their franchise guy for the future. They can tank in 2-3 years, as the contracts roll off the books, and restock around KP, then have max space before KP gets his rookie max. I would have moved Melo, but I uderstand why they didn't (couldn't) and put a huge value on protecting the downside by not moving future picks.

[HartfordWhalers]

BTW, since this keeps getting repeated. The Knicks don't have max cap space next offseason.

Here are the currently expected max contract starting values next offseason given the 102m cap:
$24,018,105
$28,821,726
$33,625,346

Here is the Knicks guaranteed contracts including Porzingis' option which is a safe bet to be picked up:
Carmelo Anthony $26,243,760
Joakim Noah $17,765,000
Courtney Lee $11,747,890
Lance Thomas $6,655,325
Kristaps Porzingis $4,503,600
Kyle O'Quinn $4,087,500
Mindaugas Kuzminskas $3,025,035
Guillermo Hernangomez $1,435,750
Total $75,463,860

The expected roster hold next year is $562,493
So, add 4 charges and you get to: $77,713,832

(Obviously having a 1st rounder would be worse for the cap hold)

That leaves the Knicks a full $9,339,178 away from having that room they supposedly already have for Chris Paul.

To have enough room for that Chris Paul max, the Knicks would need to do one of the following:
1) dump Noah and free up 10m doing it
2) dump Lee for (almost) no salary back
3) dump Lance and O'Quinn for no money back
4) Dump Lance, Kuzminskas and Hermangomez for no money back.

[R-DAWG]

But who of these guys will be truly available, not RFA, and is worth saving cap space for? The 3 mil in salary difference wouldn't be a deal breaker anywhere except maybe Curry, who's staying.


The Melo theory is fair.

But beyond that, you didn't need to save cap for any of the non max guys next year, nor worry if Rose is expiring. So signa better PG for a few more years who can turn to a backup next year (Lin maybe?), don't waste money on Noah, and have a better/healthy Lopez.

I'd take 1 year of Rose/Jennings with a shot at Chris Paul next offseason. Sometimes you have to take risks.

To be honest, I don't see a shot at Chris Paul. I also don't know if getting mid 30s Chris Paul added to the Knicks makes much a difference. But more I highly doubt he'd leave LA for it.

The Clippers are a team with chemistry issues that looks to have peaked a few years ago in a loaded western conference. Paul has said publicly that he wants to play with Melo in NY. The Knicks are the type of organization that would max him out long term for the short term benefits. Very few contenders/pretenders need a PG, have a friend/same age star like Melo and the big market like NY PLUS would be willing to max him out. I don't see why it's so hard to see Paul to NY as realistic.

And then maybe you have 1-2 years with 33 y/o Melo, 33y/o CP3 and 3rd year KP going up against 32 y/o Lebron with all those miles.

[R-DAWG]

BTW, since this keeps getting repeated. The Knicks don't have max cap space next offseason.

Here are the currently expected max contract starting values next offseason given the 102m cap:
$24,018,105
$28,821,726
$33,625,346

Here is the Knicks guaranteed contracts including Porzingis' option which is a safe bet to be picked up:
Carmelo Anthony $26,243,760
Joakim Noah $17,765,000
Courtney Lee $11,747,890
Lance Thomas $6,655,325
Kristaps Porzingis $4,503,600
Kyle O'Quinn $4,087,500
Mindaugas Kuzminskas $3,025,035
Guillermo Hernangomez $1,435,750
Total $75,463,860

The expected roster hold next year is $562,493
So, add 4 charges and you get to: $77,713,832

(Obviously having a 1st rounder would be worse for the cap hold)

That leaves the Knicks a full $9,339,178 away from having that room they supposedly already have for Chris Paul.

To have enough room for that Chris Paul max, the Knicks would need to do one of the following:
1) dump Noah and free up 10m doing it
2) dump Lee for (almost) no salary back
3) dump Lance and O'Quinn for no money back
4) Dump Lance, Kuzminskas and Hermangomez for no money back.

Outside of moving Noah, all those moves seem realistic.

[bondom34]

I'd take 1 year of Rose/Jennings with a shot at Chris Paul next offseason. Sometimes you have to take risks.

To be honest, I don't see a shot at Chris Paul. I also don't know if getting mid 30s Chris Paul added to the Knicks makes much a difference. But more I highly doubt he'd leave LA for it.

The Clippers are a team with chemistry issues that looks to have peaked a few years ago in a loaded western conference. Paul has said publicly that he wants to play with Melo in NY. The Knicks are the type of organization that would max him out long term for the short term benefits. Very few contenders/pretenders need a PG, have a friend/same age star like Melo and the big market like NY PLUS would be willing to max him out. I don't see why it's so hard to see Paul to NY as realistic.

And then maybe you have 1-2 years with 33 y/o Melo, 33y/o CP3 and 3rd year KP going up against 32 y/o Lebron with all those miles.

They haven't been fully healthy in a while, and CP/Blake/DJ is much better than CP/Melo/Porzingis. It just is.

[HartfordWhalers]

BTW, since this keeps getting repeated. The Knicks don't have max cap space next offseason.

Here are the currently expected max contract starting values next offseason given the 102m cap:
$24,018,105
$28,821,726
$33,625,346

Here is the Knicks guaranteed contracts including Porzingis' option which is a safe bet to be picked up:
Carmelo Anthony $26,243,760
Joakim Noah $17,765,000
Courtney Lee $11,747,890
Lance Thomas $6,655,325
Kristaps Porzingis $4,503,600
Kyle O'Quinn $4,087,500
Mindaugas Kuzminskas $3,025,035
Guillermo Hernangomez $1,435,750
Total $75,463,860

The expected roster hold next year is $562,493
So, add 4 charges and you get to: $77,713,832

(Obviously having a 1st rounder would be worse for the cap hold)

That leaves the Knicks a full $9,339,178 away from having that room they supposedly already have for Chris Paul.

To have enough room for that Chris Paul max, the Knicks would need to do one of the following:
1) dump Noah and free up 10m doing it
2) dump Lee for (almost) no salary back
3) dump Lance and O'Quinn for no money back
4) Dump Lance, Kuzminskas and Hermangomez for no money back.

Outside of moving Noah, all those moves seem realistic.

I think if you start including the 1st rounder that I excluded the cap hit of, it definitely doesn't seem impossible. However, if the plan was to have max cap space next year, then the Knicks unfortunately made it so they need another team to help them in a trade to get where they want to be. That might work and it might not, but it is not the type of planning I would like to see. If you swap Lee and his contract for Henderson and his contract, the Knicks can get to where they want to be without relying on a trade that might not be there on terms they would like. Especially when the value of Lee's deal is much more in the current season than later when he is paid more and even older, I think having gone the other route and controlled your own ability to have max cap space would have been much better and without much if any loss on this season.

[Kings2013]

Rose/Lawson, two point guards, around the same age, who fell off for different reasons looking to be solid this year.

[HartfordWhalers]

Las Vegas books, very smart people, people a lot smarter than anyone on this board, even place the win total at 43.

Link me one? I might have to bet on this.

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx


click nba props in the left column and scroll down

I mentioned before that the spreads on that line were highly imbalanced. Per http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17597014/las-vegas-sets-golden-state-warriors-regular-season-wins-665, Westgate has them at 38.5, which seems like a line more in tune with getting equal money on each side.

[TheDavinciCHODE]

Link me one? I might have to bet on this.

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx


click nba props in the left column and scroll down

I mentioned before that the spreads on that line were highly imbalanced. Per http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17597014/las-vegas-sets-golden-state-warriors-regular-season-wins-665, Westgate has them at 38.5, which seems like a line more in tune with getting equal money on each side.

Yeah, can't deny that. Seems like a solid compromise for people; still, don't think it's accurate. Don't see how this Knicks team isn't at least 10 wins better than what the team rolled out last year.

upgrade at point, upgrade at SG, bench upgrade, and improvement from KP. Not to mention the improvement of our two most glaring weaknesses...perimeter D and playmaking. The Knicks had the worst starting backcourt in the league last season...now it should be about average, especially if Rose get 15/7 every game.

[patman52]

I don't like the Lopez/Noah/Rose transaction, But I understand that Melo is not getting any younger. I gave them a C because at least they did not give up any future 1sts.

[dakomish23]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

56% chance at the playoffs right now.

A lot of season left to play, but they've been better than so many, including the group who did this thread, predicted.

Anyone still think Jose Calderon is better than DRose?

[Slava]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

56% chance at the playoffs right now.

A lot of season left to play, but they've been better than so many, including the group who did this thread, predicted.

Anyone still think Jose Calderon is better than DRose?

Knicks being healthy has been surprising, that's pretty much the reason why they are outperforming expectations in this thread.

[dakomish23]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

56% chance at the playoffs right now.

A lot of season left to play, but they've been better than so many, including the group who did this thread, predicted.

Anyone still think Jose Calderon is better than DRose?

Knicks being healthy has been surprising, that's pretty much the reason why they are outperforming expectations in this thread.

Agreed. The leap KP has taken has also been a springboard

[Texas Chuck]

Anyone still think Jose Calderon is better than DRose?

I still think he's better value on his contract. And if the Knicks even consider re-signing Rose then they definitely should have just stuck with Jennings/Calderon.

And if they had done that and still had RoLo they'd look even better. So yeah my opinion remains the Rose trade was a mistake.

[HartfordWhalers]

The Robin Lopez trade was still a mistake, yes.

[bondom34]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

56% chance at the playoffs right now.

A lot of season left to play, but they've been better than so many, including the group who did this thread, predicted.

Anyone still think Jose Calderon is better than DRose?

Knicks being healthy has been surprising, that's pretty much the reason why they are outperforming expectations in this thread.

Yep, and I still think Rose is awful. I'd rather Calderon on his contract and Rose hasn't been any good.

And the RoLo trade was still a big mistake. They're healthier than I thought though.

[HartfordWhalers]

As for the Knicks expectations from here, they are on a 40 win pace per 538 and that is with Noah playing 80% of the games, Lee at 90%, and Rose at 100%. SRS puts them at 17th in the league.

I think the educated guess is those percentages have more room for downside than upside. We will see, but I would feel very comfortable taking the under on a 40 win line personally.