Barbeque Chicken: The Cody Zeller Thread - Pt 2

Snidely FC · Post #1881 » by **Snidely FC** » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:40 pm

Kevin Pelton ranked Cody Zeller #18 on his projected 2017 free agents list:

18. Cody Zeller
Charlotte Hornets
Center
Age: 23
Restricted

Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.0 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.8
An RPM favorite, Zeller demonstrated last year he can protect the rim well enough to anchor a top-10 defense as a starting center. In that role, his mobility and range are pluses. The Hornets are unlikely to have cap space, and Zeller's cap hold would be $13.3 million, so expect extension talks.

Post #1882 » by **fatlever** » Tue Sep 6, 2016 9:48 pm

codyzellerLast week I visited Blue Horizon Orphanage in Angola, Africa. As I expected the poverty in this third world country was overwhelming as most of the people in the country live on less that $2 per day. As we drove to the orphanage I knew that I would see harsh living conditions and I would leave feeling sorry for the girls that have to survive in that lifestyle. Instead, I walked into the orphanage and felt this sweet girl grab my hand. I looked down to see the biggest glowing smile and a cute flower that had been painted on her cheek! I bent over and asked her what her name was but forgot that everyone there spoke Portuguese. I told her my name and waited to see if that would help her but she just continued to smile from ear to ear. We walked hand in hand as I toured the orphanage. I saw the dirt floors and broken building structures but kept looking down to see the same beautiful grin. I can't imagine the life that this girl has to endure but according to her there was nothing that could make her happier than holding my hand, getting a hug, and feeling love. Shoes, clothes, food, and safety might come occasionally but I'm willing to bet that her happiness and joy are constant. I thought that I was going to the orphanage to give, but didn't imagine that I would take away something so valuable - a fresh perspective on life!

Post #1883 » by **yosemiteben** » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:21 pm

Charlotte has until October 31 if they want to extend Cody. Kemba and Lamb were both deadline extensions, while MKG agreed to his extension in August. Cody's cap hold next season if we extend his QO is roughly $10M, so we almost certainly will be taking some cap space availability from next summer if we extend Cody now. Whether or not that is worth it depends on (a) what you think Cody may end up signing for and (b) how much you prioritize saving cap space for next summer.

Assuming you want to retain Cody, would you rather (A) extend him now with a long term contract starting at $15M per season or (B) free up $5M in cap space next summer by holding off on extending him now, then next summer extend his QO and risk him signing up a big offer sheet?

Assuming you are on the fence about retaining Cody altogether, what is the most you would be willing to pay him to retain him?

Post #1884 » by **fatlever** » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:46 pm

I'd try to lock him up now if its a reasonable deal. Cody has his faults and I know many on here don't care for him, but he's a young, smart, mobile, big man who can defend all over the floor and he still has room to get better. Guys like that typically get paid.

chabber · Post #1885 » by **chabber** » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:18 pm

Cody's undervalued by most fans, maybe even some GM's. I'd try and get his extension done now.

chellis · Post #1886 » by **chellis** » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:22 pm

I'll preface by saying I'm not a huge Zeller fan, but understand the value he brings to our team. That said, I'd hate paying Cody $15M+/yr. He isn't a $15M per, even in this new cap environment. Hopefully we can extend him at a fair and team-friendly deal like many of the other players have done. Otherwise, I wouldn't mind us exploring different trade scenarios.

HornetJail · Post #1887 » by **HornetJail** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:41 am

chellis wrote:I'll preface by saying I'm not a huge Zeller fan, but understand the value he brings to our team. That said, I'd hate paying Cody $15M+/yr. He isn't a $15M per, even in this new cap environment. Hopefully we can extend him at a fair and team-friendly deal like many of the other players have done. Otherwise, I wouldn't mind us exploring different trade scenarios.

I'm thinking he'll sign a contract in the $11M range. That's what he's worth and we've done well getting people at or below market value.

Post #1888 » by **yosemiteben** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 2:50 am

$11M is like 10% of the new cap, so in terms of when Kemba got his $15M it would be like Cody getting $7M. That feels pretty damn cheap to me.

Mystical Apples · Post #1889 » by **Mystical Apples** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:32 am

Zeller's hold is around $13M so guessing something in that neighborhood has already been discussed. Next summer's UFA center class is thin.....real thin.....compared to RFA's (Gobert, Adams, Zeller, Noel, Dieng, Plumlee). Without an extension I'd assume Cody lands an offer sheet > $18M.

Yearly averages for recent contracts, adjusted by ~ 9% accounting for 2017's higher cap.

Restricted FA
$13M: Henson
$14M: Plumlee (the bad one)
$17M: Valanciunas, Thompson
$18M: Kanter

Unrestricted FA
$17M: Mahinmi, Mozgov
$19M: Biyombo, Noah
$25M: Howard

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2017/center/

Liver_Pooty · Post #1890 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:59 am

He's going to get 15 million fairly easily. Miles Plumlee signed a 4 year 50 million dollar deal for Christ sake

HornetJail · Post #1891 » by **HornetJail** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:02 am

yosemiteben wrote:$11M is like 10% of the new cap, so in terms of when Kemba got his $15M it would be like Cody getting $7M. That feels pretty damn cheap to me.

Well, the summer Kemba got his $12M, here are some of the better players that received contracts in the ballpark of $7M: Trevor Ariza, Avery Bradley, Isaiah Thomas, Pau Gasol (yes I realize he's way older)

It's a stretch to say that current Zeller is better than any of those guys back in 2014. And yes, in 2014 teams were already gearing up for the massive 2016 cap boom- that was the first year where we really noticed teams tossing money around.

HornetJail · Post #1892 » by **HornetJail** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:05 am

Liver_Pooty wrote:He's going to get 15 million fairly easily. Miles Plumlee signed a 4 year 50 million dollar deal for Christ sake

And Evan Turner signed a $19M contract. Gerald Henderson is better than him, and we wouldn't sign him to $19M a year either. Just because another team f'ed up, doesn't mean we have to.

Liver_Pooty · Post #1893 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:08 am

MotorKeepsGoing wrote:
Liver_Pooty wrote:He's going to get 15 million fairly easily. Miles Plumlee signed a 4 year 50 million dollar deal for Christ sake

And Evan Turner signed a $19M contract. Gerald Henderson is better than him, and we wouldn't sign him to $19M a year either. Just because another team f'ed up, doesn't mean we have to.

I don't think it'd be a mistake to sign him to a 4 year 60 million dollar deal at all. That's just me.

Liver_Pooty · Post #1894 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:13 am

My **** satellite Internet actually let me post. I'm amazed

SWedd523 · Post #1895 » by **SWedd523** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:33 am

I don't really see him as the long term solution at either spot, even if Frank develops into a 15+ ppg guy. There just isn't enough strength or girth inside between the two of them to give me much faith.

I like him as a player and personality, but if he doesn't sign something very team friendly, I'm fine with him leaving.

Mystical Apples · Post #1896 » by **Mystical Apples** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:42 am

MotorKeepsGoing wrote:
Liver_Pooty wrote:He's going to get 15 million fairly easily. Miles Plumlee signed a 4 year 50 million dollar deal for Christ sake

And Evan Turner signed a $19M contract. Gerald Henderson is better than him, and we wouldn't sign him to $19M a year either. Just because another team f'ed up, doesn't mean we have to.

Turner and Henderson are extreme examples, 28-year-old backups no less. Zeller is a starting 24-year-old with a fair market value between $16 to $20m next summer. Unless he's totally risk adverse there's no reason for him to accept 85% his cap hold.

Anything up to his $13.2m hold would be team-friendly. Above 14 or 15 CHA is better off waiting and keeping the hold.

Post #1897 » by **yosemiteben** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:20 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:Zeller's hold is around $13M so guessing something in that neighborhood has already been discussed.

BOB can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Zeller has below league average salary this season so his cap hold is 200% of his $5.4M salary this season, or right around $11M.

Mystical Apples · Post #1898 » by **Mystical Apples** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:19 pm

yosemiteben wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:Zeller's hold is around $13M so guessing something in that neighborhood has already been discussed.

BOB can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Zeller has below league average salary this season so his cap hold is 200% of his $5.4M salary this season, or right around $11M.

Below = 2.5
Above = 2.0

Post #1899 » by **yosemiteben** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:02 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:Zeller's hold is around $13M so guessing something in that neighborhood has already been discussed.

BOB can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Zeller has below league average salary this season so his cap hold is 200% of his $5.4M salary this season, or right around $11M.

Below = 2.5
Above = 2.0

Whoops, just checked and you're right.

Do you know the thought process there? I assumed that players above the player average were to picks and thus more likely to get big extensions, so made more sense for them to have a higher cap hold. Not sure what the logic is for having a higher multiplier on lower picks.

Post #1900 » by **yosemiteben** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:03 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:Zeller's hold is around $13M so guessing something in that neighborhood has already been discussed.

BOB can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Zeller has below league average salary this season so his cap hold is 200% of his $5.4M salary this season, or right around $11M.

Below = 2.5
Above = 2.0

Whoops, just checked and you're right.

Do you know the thought process there? I assumed that players above the player average were top picks and thus more likely to get big extensions, so made more sense for them to have a proportionately higher cap hold. Not sure what the logic is for having a higher multiplier on lower picks.