What are the chances Paul George leaves Indy in a few years?

[Wizop]

The RealGM analysis which was just posted assumes he will eventually leave. I'd like to disagree but I'm not sure I can muster any facts to support my hope. One can certainly argue that the stars will gravitate toward the teams willing to pay luxury tax but that would be terrible for the Association. CBA talks are ongoing but its anyone's guess what the sides are shooting for. There are those who argue that the max levels should be increased to stop the flood of big dollars to average players. Would that help us keep him? Is it still true that endorsement money is greater if you play in a bigger market? Manning sure didn't appear to suffer from playing here.

Look at OKC though. Twice they decided they couldn't afford to keep a third star and eventually their first star walked. We think we have two stars in PG and a budding Turner. We're hoping Teague can be a third. Is that enough to get around Cleveland? If not, what would you do were you PG?

[chube]

Sounds like his standing max contract offer is officially on the table.

Obviously I don't expect him to sign it as soon as humanly possible but considering he's the biggest priority right now, I hope to wake up each day and see he's agreed to it


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[Scoot McGroot]

Sounds like his standing max contract offer is officially on the table.

Obviously I don't expect him to sign it as soon as humanly possible but considering he's the biggest priority right now, I hope to wake up each day and see he's agreed to it


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Due to the specifics of the rising salary cap next year, and then drop the year after, I wouldn't expect him to extend this year, but possibly next year, as he'd gain the most fiscal benefits, even as opposed to hitting free agency the following year.

Gut instinct? He extends next summer for a 4 year max, with an opt out on the last year, when he'd hit the absolute highest level of the salary cap, if all stays the same, and then could possibly hit free agency and possibly leave that last year and going into his 10th year of service.

[8305]

I don't see squeezing the last dollar out of the CBA being a big contributor in PG's decision to stay or leave. If reasonably comparable money is available from a team better equipped to compete for a ring I see Paul signing with that team. I think it boils down to how good Myles Turner is when the decision needs to be made. Teague and Young can't be busts but neither of them has the upside to make us contenders. If PG can look at Turner and see a better player than he sees on potential suitors we have a shot.

[basketballwacko2]

One thing I think needs to go in the next CBA is the "Max Contract." By eliminating the "Max" it would allow the Pacers to give more money to him and keep him. If it took $35 million a year to keep him we'd give him that and he'd be a Pacer for life. It would also end the super team with the salary cap and luxury tax. Top players would be making so much money that they'd be spread out, unless some players were willing to take less money.

[jaywalkszzz]

Sounds like his standing max contract offer is officially on the table.

Obviously I don't expect him to sign it as soon as humanly possible but considering he's the biggest priority right now, I hope to wake up each day and see he's agreed to it


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Due to the specifics of the rising salary cap next year, and then drop the year after, I wouldn't expect him to extend this year, but possibly next year, as he'd gain the most fiscal benefits, even as opposed to hitting free agency the following year.

Gut instinct? He extends next summer for a 4 year max, with an opt out on the last year, when he'd hit the absolute highest level of the salary cap, if all stays the same, and then could possibly hit free agency and possibly leave that last year and going into his 10th year of service.

If the Pacers make it deep into the 2017 playoffs and PG sees potential with the current roster, then I agree he’ll renegotiate and extend his current contract in the summer of 2017 w/ an opt out in 2020.

However, the 2018-19 salary cap is not expected to drop. Reductions in salary cap only occur when an overage occurs (i.e. if the players were paid more than their designated guaranteed amount in the previous season (pre-escrow) and the system is getting close to exceeding what the league can get back through the escrow system).

There is a projected $125M shortfall for the 2017-18 season according to the July 2016 memo sent to NBA executives.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2016/07/07/nba-salary-cap-projections-lebron-james/86808464/

Of course these are all projections and can significantly change with a new CBA.

[jaywalkszzz]

One thing I think needs to go in the next CBA is the "Max Contract." By eliminating the "Max" it would allow the Pacers to give more money to him and keep him. If it took $35 million a year to keep him we'd give him that and he'd be a Pacer for life. It would also end the super team with the salary cap and luxury tax. Top players would be making so much money that they'd be spread out, unless some players were willing to take less money.

I doubt the "max tier" contracts are going anywhere. Only ~10% of the players have "max-tier-type" contract structures. The rest of the Player's Union are either on "middle-class", rookie-scale, or minimum contracts. No "max tiers" contracts means less money for the "middle-class".

Adding another max-tier higher than the "35%" max might be a possibility though to help teams retain their star players.