Political Roundtable Part X

[JWizmentality]

Meanwhile, a defiant Trump and his inner circle are strategizing how to counter punch

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I've never wanted 46 secs of my life back so badly.

[DCZards]

What I said stands. The country is largely disaffected with both parties. And this election is going to drive it further.

Most "independents" are independent in name only.

The growing myth of the ‘independent’ voter
By Philip Bump January 11
If you were to pick a random American off of the street, it's more likely that he or she would identify as an independent than as a Democrat or a Republican. That's been the case for a while now, of course, so the new numbers from Gallup breaking down the country's partisanship aren't, by themselves, earth-shattering.

In Gallup's most recent analysis, 42 percent of Americans identify as independent, compared with 29 percent who say they are Democrats and 26 percent who say they are Republicans.

(That shift has given Bernie Sanders the edge in our "Who is more popular, Trump or Sanders" tracker — at least for now.)

What's interesting is when you break out those independents. As we noted in August, most independents lean toward one party or the other — and in 2012, the majority of those leaning independents voted for their preferred party's presidential candidate. (According to the book "The Gamble," 90 percent of Democratic-leaning independents backed Obama in 2012, and 78 percent of Republican-leaning ones backed Romney.)

[keynote]

Trump: "I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life."

Eww. Even his innocuous statements sound nasty at this point.

[montestewart]

Trump: "I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life."

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Grab them by the P....

Thank you, Donald Trump.

[FAH1223]

Grab them by the P....

Thank you, Donald Trump.

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On a serious note,

The GOP controls 65% of state legislatures. They have 60% of the governorships.

They will control the House of Representatives for another decade due to gerry mandering.

They may or may not lose control of the US Senate. Even if they do, 2018 looks to be a good year for them.

They won't win the White House for awhile but since Hillary is a weak candidate, they can probably win in 2020 if they have a competent moderate.

Trump will have no lasting effect on this party.

His whole life this guy has always sought attention and every facet of him seems designed to get it. He has gotten obsessive coverage, largely negative, since he announced for president, and honestly that seems like that's his goal. He thrives on the attention, he doesn't think about governing or policy and I am not even convinced he really wants to win all that badly. He's just enjoying the ride.

The reason someone like that can get so far is because the one thing he does seem to understand is how to get attention. He constantly says provocative or offensive things, and that's what the TV wants to put up there.

If Paul Ryan walks into Congress and introduces a health care plan that would drive millions of people into a situation where they can't afford care, and thousands more would die prematurely, the news media will yawn (we know this is the case, because he did do it, and he is still considered a legitimate, serious figure). If Ryan walked out onto the street and yelled the N word 50 times at a random stranger, he'd be on the chyrons of every cable news network.

Ryan is about governing. Most politicians are about governing. They can do the most cruel and awful things but they don't have to worry about any real backlash a lot of the time because policy is never given much attention in the political media.

Trump is about attention. That seems to be all he wants. The reality is that he has in his entire life done a lot less damage than some other politicians, Democrats and Republicans (though he's donated to both), but they don't crave attention and the media doesnt bother to hold them accountable in the same way. They dont thrive off of being outwardly offensive, and he does.

So I think when Trump-Pence gets totally destroyed in a month, and when the GOP somehow maintains control of the entire Congress (Senate TBD) and continues to work with Clinton on things that would immiserate millions of people, I dont think the media will treat them anywhere near how it treats Trump. And that suits Trump fine, because it meets his goal (endless attention on him, and not on anything of substance), it meets the media's goal, it meets the GOP's goal, and it meets Clinton's goal. But it's not very good for human beings, and that's really the system's fault. Trump just understood how to use it. He'all start Trump TV with Roger Ailes and turn this campaign into a W after he takes a massive L in the electoral map.

[nate33]

But what about the all important rank-and-file GOP voter constituency: has the Trump tape had any impact where it really counts?

The answer, perhaps not surprisingly, is a resounding no. According to a new poll released this morning by Politico/Morning Consult, a vast majority of Republican voters is standing behind Donald Trump after the so-called "campaign imploding" tape scandal.

While nearly three-quarters, or 74%, of all voters polled reacted negatively to the video, almost three-quarters of Republicans, or 74%, said GOP leaders should still back Trump. Only a modest 12% of Republican voters said Trump should end his campaign, pollsters found, and - perhaps more surprisingly - only 13% of female Republicans said he should drop out.

Less surprising was the finding that 70% of Democrats, meanwhile, said Trump should leave the race.

Overall, the poll of 1,549 registered voters, including 1,390 likely voters, which was conducted on Saturday (with a 3% margin of error), found that fewer than four-in-10 voters, or 39%, think Trump should end his presidential campaign, while only slightly more voters, 45 percent, think he should not drop out.

Just as notable, when it comes to overall support at the national level, there has been a very modest impact on polls. Here Hillary Clinton leads Trump in the four-way race for the White House by four points, 42% to 38 percent, with eight percent supporting Gary Johnson, three percent supporting Jill Stein and nine percent undecided. Clinton also leads by four in a two-way race, 45 percent to 41 percent.

Also suggesting that the tape will have a lesser impact on voting intentions, and sway opinions at least among core camps, than the media hopes to be the case, is that according to the poll 48% of GOP voters said it makes them feel less favorably toward Trump, while 36 percent said it doesn’t affect their opinions of Trump.

Perhaps most unexpectedly for all those senior republicans calling for Trump's head - perhaps taking advantage of the tape to express how they had intended to vote, or not vote, all along - Trump's support dropped just 1 point from a similar poll conducted before his comments were released.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/snap-poll-finds-vast-majority-gop-voters-stand-behind-trump-after-lewd-comments

[Pitbull]

How is this news? GOP will support GOP. DEM will support DEM. That won't change.

What will change is enthusiasm and independent/swing voters who no longer view Trump as a person they want to lead the country. At the same time, it energizes Democrats who have even more reason to show up at the ballot booth (who, to this point, have remained largely apathetic to Hillary).

That whole African American outreach thing? He wasn't trying to capture their vote. He was trying to appeal to white America as a person sensible and willing to commune at the table with other groups. To soften the edge of his polarizing perception.

This will absolutely impact Trump. He has work to do tonight.

[Wizardspride]

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[nate33]

How is this news? GOP will support GOP. DEM will support DEM. That won't change.

What will change is enthusiasm and independent/swing voters who no longer view Trump as a person they want to lead the country. At the same time, it energizes Democrats who have even more reason to show up at the ballot booth (who, to this point, have remained largely apathetic to Hillary).

That poll says that you are wrong because Trump only fell 1 point, so I would indeed call it news. Obviously, it's only one poll and there's a margin of error, so we'll have to wait and see.

That whole African American outreach thing? He wasn't trying to capture their vote. He was trying to appeal to white America as a person sensible and willing to commune at the table with other groups. To soften the edge of his polarizing perception.

I agree, sort of. I'm sure Trump was trying to get the black vote as well, but they knew going in that they weren't going to get very many of them. Still, there's nothing wrong with trying. I'd characterize it as Quixotic rather than cynical.

[nate33]

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A stupid comment.

How in the hell is Trump homophobic or transphobic? He's the most gay rights friendly Republican nominee in history. And I continue to completely reject this notion that having some form of immigration restriction is "xenophobia". We currently have an all time record high number of foreign born people in our country. Basically, the argument is that anything lower than a new all time record high of foreign born Americans is xenophobia. That's just nonsense. Any rational country controls its immigration flow to suit the needs of its citizens. In a time when people out of the workforce is at an all time high, there is no compelling reason for mass immigration.

[nate33]

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Shocking! Condi Rice, a neocon warmonger from the Bush wing of the party doesn't like Trump.

I'll be really demoralized if I find out that Erick Erickson and William Kristol don't like him either.

[Wizardspride]

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[AFM]

Dear lord

Wonder if he said it with the -er or -a suffix. He strikes me as an -er type of guy.

[Wizardspride]

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[DCZards]

This is from the same article about the Politico/Morning Consult poll that Nate quoted above:

Operatives in both parties say they believe it will take several days — and Sunday night’s debate at Washington University in St. Louis — to have the video bake into the public consciousness.

[nate33]

This is from the same article about the Politico/Morning Consult poll that Nate quoted above:

Operatives in both parties say they believe it will take several days — and Sunday night’s debate at Washington University in St. Louis — to have the video bake into the public consciousness.

There is no question that we need to wait a few days to see how it shakes out. I said as much in my post. It's only one poll. And there's a margin of error.

[dckingsfan]

What I said stands. The country is largely disaffected with both parties. And this election is going to drive it further.

Most "independents" are independent in name only.

The growing myth of the ‘independent’ voter
By Philip Bump January 11
If you were to pick a random American off of the street, it's more likely that he or she would identify as an independent than as a Democrat or a Republican. That's been the case for a while now, of course, so the new numbers from Gallup breaking down the country's partisanship aren't, by themselves, earth-shattering.

In Gallup's most recent analysis, 42 percent of Americans identify as independent, compared with 29 percent who say they are Democrats and 26 percent who say they are Republicans.

(That shift has given Bernie Sanders the edge in our "Who is more popular, Trump or Sanders" tracker — at least for now.)

What's interesting is when you break out those independents. As we noted in August, most independents lean toward one party or the other — and in 2012, the majority of those leaning independents voted for their preferred party's presidential candidate. (According to the book "The Gamble," 90 percent of Democratic-leaning independents backed Obama in 2012, and 78 percent of Republican-leaning ones backed Romney.)

The real fallacy is in Mr. Bump's analysis and the question that was asked. Ask if there was a credible 3rd party candidate - which party would those independents vote for...

Philip Bump's job is to spin information - I would say to pick someone more credible.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Grab them by the P....

Thank you, Donald Trump.

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Trump could have had this as his campaign theme music:

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Trump should be in this video saying, " Yeah, you know me."