Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Was Last Year An Anomoly?
I really believe last year was something of an anomaly. Various players intersected at a point in time to create a good team, one that should have beaten Miami. Odds are if we brought every single player back we wouldn't that much better, except for adding MKG. Now we have dinged up key players (Kemba, Cody) who may not be 100% at anytime this season, lesser role players (Marco, Sessions) that look far worse than those we lost, and poor 3pt shooting that, if not dramatically corrected, will highlight our weak inside game. Marco is crap. I hated that trade and hate it even more seeing him play. Who made that call?
I wonder if Kaminski is better as a 5? Same question we had with Cody, who is a better 5 than 4. We keep drafting guys as stretch 4's that can't shoot. Frank will get better, but my gosh, what did you do with your summer beside bathe in Skittles? He put on muscle but can he use it? I like the tank but we did blow that pick. Batum is low ceiling for a guy making star money. Marvin is a pro but he will show his limitations. MKG will be helpful but he still is no star.
The main point of my thread is to consider how likely our previous season was a bit fleeting, like a long unexpected period of spring during a winter in t Dakotas. I hope my uneasiness is fleeting, but this edition of The Hornets looks very shaky.
I wonder if Kaminski is better as a 5? Same question we had with Cody, who is a better 5 than 4. We keep drafting guys as stretch 4's that can't shoot. Frank will get better, but my gosh, what did you do with your summer beside bathe in Skittles? He put on muscle but can he use it? I like the tank but we did blow that pick. Batum is low ceiling for a guy making star money. Marvin is a pro but he will show his limitations. MKG will be helpful but he still is no star.
The main point of my thread is to consider how likely our previous season was a bit fleeting, like a long unexpected period of spring during a winter in t Dakotas. I hope my uneasiness is fleeting, but this edition of The Hornets looks very shaky.
I continue to wait...and hope...for the return to Hornet's glory.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- yosemiteben
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
No. It's preseason. Us shooting like 10% from three while Kemba plays only 10 MPG and we don't have Cody is the anomaly.
For as great as our preseason was last year, we started the season 2-4 and were below .500 in early January.
For as great as our preseason was last year, we started the season 2-4 and were below .500 in early January.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
yosemiteben wrote:For as great as our preseason was last year, we started the season 2-4 and were below .500 in early January.
Making no pronouncements about current pre-season.
But consider, last pre-season quite directly supported the historical empirical data on predicting regular season standing.
Since 2002, only 2 teams ever had 8 wins in preseason in the East.
2002-2003 Piston (#1 in regular season)
2009-2010 Magic. (#2 in regular season)
Teams with 7 wins in preseason.
2014-2015 Raptors (#4 in regular season)
2013-2014 Bull (#5 in regular season).
2010-2011 Magic (#4 in regular season) and Celtics (#3).
2007-2008 Hawk(#8 in regular season)
Hornets 7-1 2015-2016 (tied for #3-6 in regular season) and a 48 win season.
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- yosemiteben
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
So only seven teams since 2002 even qualify under those metrics.
Would I prefer to win all our preseason games? Sure. Does not winning mean we aren't a good team or that we'll start slower than last season? Not at all.
Would I prefer to win all our preseason games? Sure. Does not winning mean we aren't a good team or that we'll start slower than last season? Not at all.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
yosemiteben wrote:So only seven teams since 2002 even qualify under those metrics.
Would I prefer to win all our preseason games? Sure. Does not winning mean we aren't a good team or that we'll start slower than last season? Not at all.
Eight teams, but who's counting
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomaly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomaly?
I am concerned at the low level of basketball being played. Last year, the team already looked sharp by mid October. This year, I see little evidence of improvement in any facet of the game. Remember how the Hornets were rated the "least watchable team" before the season started? That's how they look now.
Last year, the team started P. J. Hairston for half the season. He had a net rating of -10. He was replaced by Courtney Lee at +3, who helped bring the team to the playoffs. But at the same time, we are missing Jeremy Lin at -4, Troy Daniels at +3, Al Jefferson at +3, Tyler Hansbrough at +9, and Cody Zeller at +17. That is six guys that we are missing, over a third of the team that went to the playoffs, and only one due to injury. Despite the successful effort to bring back Batum and Williams, there was not enough effort to keep other guys here, especially Lee and Lin, but also including Daniels and Hansbrough. They hardly played but contributed nonetheless, especially when injuries hit, as they have so far.
Moreover, the Hornets shot 5% from three yesterday, and that was not an anomaly this preseason, as I noted in the introduction. Their defense was uncoordinated and lacked toughness. The rebounding was much improved over the first two games, but it was not enough to overcome the poor shooting.
Last year, the team started P. J. Hairston for half the season. He had a net rating of -10. He was replaced by Courtney Lee at +3, who helped bring the team to the playoffs. But at the same time, we are missing Jeremy Lin at -4, Troy Daniels at +3, Al Jefferson at +3, Tyler Hansbrough at +9, and Cody Zeller at +17. That is six guys that we are missing, over a third of the team that went to the playoffs, and only one due to injury. Despite the successful effort to bring back Batum and Williams, there was not enough effort to keep other guys here, especially Lee and Lin, but also including Daniels and Hansbrough. They hardly played but contributed nonetheless, especially when injuries hit, as they have so far.
Moreover, the Hornets shot 5% from three yesterday, and that was not an anomaly this preseason, as I noted in the introduction. Their defense was uncoordinated and lacked toughness. The rebounding was much improved over the first two games, but it was not enough to overcome the poor shooting.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- yosemiteben
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
reelsgm wrote: Eight teams, but who's counting
Oops, miscounted on my phone. Point remains that over a 14 year period only 8 total teams posted 7 or 8 wins, and of those only 4 had HCA in the playoffs. Preseason performance is not a meaningful indicator IMO.
ETA: also note that a lot of teams don't play 7 or 8 preseason games. MEM and SAC were both 5-1 last preseason. SAS was 2-4. DAL was 0-7. GSW and POR were both 3-4. CLE was 1-6.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- MPM
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
I think I posted this a few years ago, but worth another look: http://www.82games.com/preseason.htm
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- fatlever
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
slow starts are definitely a pattern under Clifford. I was hoping this year would be different, hoping we'd build on playoff experience and come out strong in November and not have to rely on an white hot stretch in March to back into the playoffs.
Preseason records aside, at this time last year we had a few games where it was obvious our offense was capable of being really good. This preseason does remind me a lot more of two years ago, when Jefferson went down and we were stuck playing in the clogged toilet offense but w/out Jefferson to at least score inside.
My fear is that our offense is too Kemba reliant and if he struggles at all with rust or a lingering knee injury or a bit of a regression in shooting, we're in trouble.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
Trolling - board ban and suspension requested
Note to Lin fans, there will be zero tolerance policy for returning Lin fans coming to make fun of any misfortune for the Hornets or their players. Consider this your only warning.
Note to Lin fans, there will be zero tolerance policy for returning Lin fans coming to make fun of any misfortune for the Hornets or their players. Consider this your only warning.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
reelsgm wrote:yosemiteben wrote:For as great as our preseason was last year, we started the season 2-4 and were below .500 in early January.
Making no pronouncements about current pre-season.
But consider, last pre-season quite directly supported the historical empirical data on predicting regular season standing.
Making no pronouncements about the current preseason.
But consider last preseason the Cleveland Cavaliers started 0-6.
geometry
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- JohnStockton
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
I don't know if anomaly is the right word... but while I'd be pretty worried as a Hornets fan after these first few games. It's a little too early to panic.
That said, folks can say that preseason records don't matter--and they obviously don't--but good teams still look good schematically, regardless of whether they win or less. So far, the team hasn't looked like it was clicking on either side of the ball, and that's a bad sign...
You make a good point that last year's Hornets were looking mighty competent last pre-season, and that was true. The Hornets were clicking on all cylinders last preseason, and they were doing it while running their new spread offense. However, I think it's important to remember that once the regular season started, they reverted back into Alfense and they were mediocre. Once Al got hurt though, they returned to the spread offense and that's how they started turning things around (especially offensively).
By the time Al got back, Clifford had realized the spread was more effective and stuck with that. They either ran an offense with 3 players who could run a Pick N Roll (Kemba/Batum/Lin), a stretch-4 (Marvin/Frank), and a mobile 5 (Zeller/Frank), or they ran 2 players who could run a Pick N Roll (Kemba/Batum/Lin), a 3&D wing (Lee/PJ), a stretch-4 (Marvin/Frank), and a mobile 5 (Zeller/Frank). For matchups, they could put in Al at Center in order to exploit weak post-defenses (MIA series), or they could put in Daniels in the 3&D position for added 3-point shooting. In short, last year's Hornets were a great mix of talent and pieces. Depth and versatility were some of their greatest strengths.
This year, it's pretty easy to see that the offense is going to suffer a bit compared to last year. Just by the nature of losing Lin, the Hornets have lost their "3 players who can run PnR" lineups, so they are going to have to depend on Kemba/Batum drawing enough attention to collapse the defense off of screens more than anything else.
It's much easier to defend two main PnR ball-handlers swinging the ball from side to side, rather than having three guys being a PnR threat, so I suspect the reason that MKG is getting some action as a playmaker, is because Clifford wants to see if he can regain the threat of the triple-PNR lineup with MKG being a third playmaker.
Either way, I don't think it will quite work out. The spacing and the looks at open 3s will be worse than last year because there will be less pressure being created on the perimeter with only two true Pick N Roll players. Most likely, you guys will always be running some form of two Pick N Roll players (Kemba/Batum), a 3&D wing (MKG/Marco/Lamb), a stretch-4 (Marvin/Frank) and a 5 (Zeller/Frank/Hibbert).
Note: When Clifford was running 3 PnR players (Kemba/Batum/Lin) things were great on offense, but the team was undersized on defense. If Cliff wanted more size, he would play the 2 PnR player-set, but early in the season, when he played that set, he had to settle for the 3&D player being PJ Hairston (ugh). The reason that trading for Lee was so effective, was that with Lee to slide into the 3&D spot, it solidified that rotation, and gave the team a true versatility of playing well balanced lineups for either 3 PnR Players or 2 Pnr Players (without any glaring weakness --> PJ).
This year, the healthy starting lineup has less offensive potential simply from the lack of 3 PnR players, and right now, Kemba/Batum are barely playing so it makes a lot of sense that the offense looks (not just a step-down) but terrible. Not having a mobile 5 (Zeller) setting the PnR screens is also hurting a lot on offense. Sessions provides penetration ability off of drives in the backup point guard role, similar to Lin, but he's not the same playmaker off of Picks, and his shot selection is worse. MKG will not provide the 3-ball that Lee did, by provides better ability to drive to the rim. All in all, you should expect this preseason lineup to be terrible at offense, and they are...
Once Kemba/Batum are playing full time and Zeller is back, if the offense continues to struggle, that's when you know things are probably going to be awful for a prolonged time... Honestly, I expect the offense to be middle-of-the-pack (or a little under) once Kemba/Batum/Zeller are back full-time. Problem is, with Hibbert in there, you guys might get off to a very poor start. PnR is a huge part of the scheme, and a poor-screener really hurts.
Either way, it's pretty clear that if you guys want to make the playoffs again this year, you'll have to do it on the strength of your defense. Last year you guys made it on the strength of your perimeter offense, and being versatile. You have less of both this year. I assumed that you guys would still make the playoffs as a 7/8th seed, because I thought your defensive versatility (regaining MKG/Hibbert) would've mitigated some of your lost offensive depth, but it looks like the Hibbert rehabilitation project is tanking... so it looks like he should go to the bench when Zeller gets back. But.. pretty much all of your bench also seem to be bad defensively too, so I'm not feeling so good about your defense picking up your offense anymore.
Either way, these are some things to consider... but if anything, I'd be paying attention to your defense more than your offensive struggles. Your offense won't be as good as last year, but it won't be this bad once Kemba/Batum are playing. If your team defense doesn't step up though, things will be bad.
That said, folks can say that preseason records don't matter--and they obviously don't--but good teams still look good schematically, regardless of whether they win or less. So far, the team hasn't looked like it was clicking on either side of the ball, and that's a bad sign...
You make a good point that last year's Hornets were looking mighty competent last pre-season, and that was true. The Hornets were clicking on all cylinders last preseason, and they were doing it while running their new spread offense. However, I think it's important to remember that once the regular season started, they reverted back into Alfense and they were mediocre. Once Al got hurt though, they returned to the spread offense and that's how they started turning things around (especially offensively).
By the time Al got back, Clifford had realized the spread was more effective and stuck with that. They either ran an offense with 3 players who could run a Pick N Roll (Kemba/Batum/Lin), a stretch-4 (Marvin/Frank), and a mobile 5 (Zeller/Frank), or they ran 2 players who could run a Pick N Roll (Kemba/Batum/Lin), a 3&D wing (Lee/PJ), a stretch-4 (Marvin/Frank), and a mobile 5 (Zeller/Frank). For matchups, they could put in Al at Center in order to exploit weak post-defenses (MIA series), or they could put in Daniels in the 3&D position for added 3-point shooting. In short, last year's Hornets were a great mix of talent and pieces. Depth and versatility were some of their greatest strengths.
This year, it's pretty easy to see that the offense is going to suffer a bit compared to last year. Just by the nature of losing Lin, the Hornets have lost their "3 players who can run PnR" lineups, so they are going to have to depend on Kemba/Batum drawing enough attention to collapse the defense off of screens more than anything else.
It's much easier to defend two main PnR ball-handlers swinging the ball from side to side, rather than having three guys being a PnR threat, so I suspect the reason that MKG is getting some action as a playmaker, is because Clifford wants to see if he can regain the threat of the triple-PNR lineup with MKG being a third playmaker.
Either way, I don't think it will quite work out. The spacing and the looks at open 3s will be worse than last year because there will be less pressure being created on the perimeter with only two true Pick N Roll players. Most likely, you guys will always be running some form of two Pick N Roll players (Kemba/Batum), a 3&D wing (MKG/Marco/Lamb), a stretch-4 (Marvin/Frank) and a 5 (Zeller/Frank/Hibbert).
Note: When Clifford was running 3 PnR players (Kemba/Batum/Lin) things were great on offense, but the team was undersized on defense. If Cliff wanted more size, he would play the 2 PnR player-set, but early in the season, when he played that set, he had to settle for the 3&D player being PJ Hairston (ugh). The reason that trading for Lee was so effective, was that with Lee to slide into the 3&D spot, it solidified that rotation, and gave the team a true versatility of playing well balanced lineups for either 3 PnR Players or 2 Pnr Players (without any glaring weakness --> PJ).
This year, the healthy starting lineup has less offensive potential simply from the lack of 3 PnR players, and right now, Kemba/Batum are barely playing so it makes a lot of sense that the offense looks (not just a step-down) but terrible. Not having a mobile 5 (Zeller) setting the PnR screens is also hurting a lot on offense. Sessions provides penetration ability off of drives in the backup point guard role, similar to Lin, but he's not the same playmaker off of Picks, and his shot selection is worse. MKG will not provide the 3-ball that Lee did, by provides better ability to drive to the rim. All in all, you should expect this preseason lineup to be terrible at offense, and they are...
Once Kemba/Batum are playing full time and Zeller is back, if the offense continues to struggle, that's when you know things are probably going to be awful for a prolonged time... Honestly, I expect the offense to be middle-of-the-pack (or a little under) once Kemba/Batum/Zeller are back full-time. Problem is, with Hibbert in there, you guys might get off to a very poor start. PnR is a huge part of the scheme, and a poor-screener really hurts.
Either way, it's pretty clear that if you guys want to make the playoffs again this year, you'll have to do it on the strength of your defense. Last year you guys made it on the strength of your perimeter offense, and being versatile. You have less of both this year. I assumed that you guys would still make the playoffs as a 7/8th seed, because I thought your defensive versatility (regaining MKG/Hibbert) would've mitigated some of your lost offensive depth, but it looks like the Hibbert rehabilitation project is tanking... so it looks like he should go to the bench when Zeller gets back. But.. pretty much all of your bench also seem to be bad defensively too, so I'm not feeling so good about your defense picking up your offense anymore.
Either way, these are some things to consider... but if anything, I'd be paying attention to your defense more than your offensive struggles. Your offense won't be as good as last year, but it won't be this bad once Kemba/Batum are playing. If your team defense doesn't step up though, things will be bad.
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
With Al, Lee, Lin, the team had a higher ceiling... but the floor for this team should be around 40-42 wins, it is too early to be panic..
Nic has to do a little more, he can't just settle to be the glue guy... He is the most talented player in the team, he has the ability to produce more on both ends...
With MKG back, you should generate a little more offense through defense, run more fast breaks...
Nic has to do a little more, he can't just settle to be the glue guy... He is the most talented player in the team, he has the ability to produce more on both ends...
With MKG back, you should generate a little more offense through defense, run more fast breaks...
Hi Clutchie, I love you...

Re: RE: Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- yosemiteben
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Re: RE: Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
JohnStockton wrote:This year, the healthy starting lineup has less offensive potential simply from the lack of 3 PnR players, and right now, Kemba/Batum are barely playing so it makes a lot of sense that the offense looks (not just a step-down) but terrible.
Lin never started though so there never were three PNR guys in the starting lineup, and like you suggested may be Cliff's plan I think MKG will generally prove more effective at attacking the basket than Lin did last season. I personally don't think Lin as third ball handler was too much of a success when viewing the season as a whole (there's a reason CLee at times pushed him out of the closing group post-ASB), I think his general BBIQ and his willingness to play off ball (albeit with relatively poor shooting efficiency) and still bring great defensive intensity, and especially his ability to hit FTs down the stretch, were where his primary value lay last season.
JohnStockton wrote:Once Kemba/Batum are playing full time and Zeller is back, if the offense continues to struggle, that's when you know things are probably going to be awful for a prolonged time...
Definitely agree here.
JohnStockton wrote:...it looks like the Hibbert rehabilitation project is tanking...
Way too early to say something like this.
JohnStockton wrote: if anything, I'd be paying attention to your defense more than your offensive struggles. Your offense won't be as good as last year, but it won't be this bad once Kemba/Batum are playing. If your team defense doesn't step up though, things will be bad.
I don't necessarily agree that our offense will take a step back, but I do agree that our defense should be better and probably our biggest strength and it'll be a big problem if it is not a strength at all.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- fatlever
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
Hornets are shooting 16% from 3pt on 22 attempts/game (11-for-68), which includes Frank's 0-for-13. Until the Hornets have a threat to score in the paint (healthy Kemba), teams will continue to sell out to run us off 3pt line (like Miami did in playoffs) and we will continue to get few open looks from 3.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomaly?
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomaly?
JohnStockton wrote:This year, the healthy starting lineup has less offensive potential simply from the lack of 3 PnR players, and right now, Kemba/Batum are barely playing so it makes a lot of sense that the offense looks (not just a step-down) but terrible. Not having a mobile 5 (Zeller) setting the PnR screens is also hurting a lot on offense. Sessions provides penetration ability off of drives in the backup point guard role, similar to Lin, but he's not the same playmaker off of Picks, and his shot selection is worse. MKG will not provide the 3-ball that Lee did, but provides better ability to drive to the rim. All in all, you should expect this preseason lineup to be terrible at offense, and they are...
Last year, Cody was the only starter who consistently set good screens. Tyler was the only backup who did so. (Ironically, Al Jefferson had some good ones in the playoffs.) I am hoping that Marvin Williams can pick up some of the slack, and perhaps Roy Hibbert, as well. The problem here is two-fold: without good screens, the pick-and-roll is less consistently effective; and there are fewer open threes, except on kick-outs.
And as I pointed out in the game thread, when you have two seven-footers on the floor at the same time, and neither one is very fast, the whole offense starts to sputter.
Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- amcoolio
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Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
MKG is flat out a better player than Jeremy Lin or Courtney Lee and will create a bigger impact. Hibbert balances out the roster more than Jefferson, IMO.
Problem so far in the preseason is not hitting open shots, and very bad defense particularly on the 2nd unit.
With a full team, I think the defense problem goes away. Shot making, it will come in time.
Keep in mind we played one of the best, deepest teams in the league twice in our 3 preseason games. Whoever Boston cuts will likely be picked up immediately by other teams.
Problem so far in the preseason is not hitting open shots, and very bad defense particularly on the 2nd unit.
With a full team, I think the defense problem goes away. Shot making, it will come in time.
Keep in mind we played one of the best, deepest teams in the league twice in our 3 preseason games. Whoever Boston cuts will likely be picked up immediately by other teams.
Re: RE: Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
- BlackOutBuzz
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Re: RE: Re: Was Last Year An Anomoly?
fatlever wrote:
slow starts are definitely a pattern under Clifford. I was hoping this year would be different, hoping we'd build on playoff experience and come out strong in November and not have to rely on an white hot stretch in March to back into the playoffs.
Who's saying it won't be? That's quite the jump to make from three games...excuse me...three PRESEASON games. We haven't even seen more than three starters together but for the eight minutes Kemba played in game two.
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Hornets Picks by Year
2021: Bouknight, Jones, Thor, Lewis
Protection on future 1st* (to NYK); 2nds
2022: 1-18; CHA (31-55), TOR 2 (55-60)
2023: 1-16; BOS (GH)
2024: 1-14; BOS (GH)
2025: 1-14; CHA (31-55)
*Becomes two 2nds if unconveyed
2021: Bouknight, Jones, Thor, Lewis
Protection on future 1st* (to NYK); 2nds
2022: 1-18; CHA (31-55), TOR 2 (55-60)
2023: 1-16; BOS (GH)
2024: 1-14; BOS (GH)
2025: 1-14; CHA (31-55)
*Becomes two 2nds if unconveyed