OAKLEY_2 wrote:Double Helix wrote:SharoneWright wrote:
And yet I'm guessing you would have voted Obama over Romney.........
1.Obama had less experience and expertise..
2.Obama had more emotional populism.. yes we can hope and change
3.Obama had more likability - everyone's cool (1?) black friend
Romney had:
-A far better resume
-Less emotional voters
-Was less relatable
I'll leave it to others to decide the state of America 8 years later. Personally I think people vote based on personal ideology and seek to justify their vote based on selective reasoning. imho
personally, i think outcome is what matters. style is irrelevant. what trajectory do you wish for.
1) As others shared later it was McCain initially. With regard to experience in law-making though Obama had been an elected official for 12 years prior to his Presidential run. He may have looked young and didn't have the experience of McCain but he was infinitely more prepared than Trump was. At a certain point there's a point of diminishing returns with experience which is why companies don't always elect to go with the oldest most experienced CEOs out there. They want some experience but that's not all they're after. Still, there's a minimum requirement for every role unless the person was the founder of their own business.
2) When I personally think of populist politicians I think of them more in the context of demagogues who focus primarily on the most ignorant in the electorate. Some also call this appealing to the lowest common denominator. To me, it's more about the concept of pitching intellectuals as elites that think too much and are thus out of touch with what really matters to folks. People like Rob Ford and Donald Trump (among others) convert gaffes into strengths. Their appeal is that they seem to come at hot topics from the same perspective of the common man right down to the lack of polish or willingness to listen to experts and think long term. What would normally make them undesirable instead becomes their calling card charm for some. They milk that for all it's worth and it also buys them tremendous room for gaffes or missteps that would sink more serious candidates. They lower the bar both in terms of platform ideas and in discourse and in doing so all but force their opponents to do the same. They find wedge issues in polling that average voters seem ignorant or highly emotional about (The value or Brexit, the Niqab, path to citizenship, use of the words radical Islam or not, refugees) and go with the emotional, easier to explain side of the argument 99% of the time, applying that wedge in against the much harder, long-term, fair, side of the argument which their opponents are often forced to take up. Populists know that most people don't have time to read a few paragraphs for why free trade is favored by economists, or why Muslim women should have the right to wear a Niqab, or why an update in online policing might be necessary. So, they always take the easier, knee-jerk, more emotional side of the debate and ride these wedge issues to victory in many cases. I'm half surprised Trump didn't try to focus on the whole transgender bathroom controversy because that seems like a classic wedge issue somebody like him would normally pounce on because it's much harder to be on the defending side of the concept than it is to argue what if scenarios about potential sex offenders exploiting rules.
The TPP flip flop Clinton and countless others did earlier this year was brilliant strategy for this reason. It's all but impossible to explain to workers the economic benefits of these big deals and how some exporters benefit and she and her team knew it. All he'd have to do was say the things he's been saying about losing jobs and she'd have immediately been forced to explain macro economic theory essentially each and every time. Good luck trying that to the masses in easily digestible sound bites. It's hard enough to explain the complexities of Wall Street most of the time. It was the same way with Brexit. A simple message like "Let's look after our own and focus on us first" resonates. It's the easier sell. You're going to see a lot of politicians over the next decade try to use that to win because the counter arguments for globalist economics and allies and NATO are simply too complex to get into easily. Lowest common denominator messaging works. Advertisers call it the KISS principle. Keep it simple, stupid. Clinton likely would be in a much tighter race had she not flip flopped on the TPP against a populist like Trump.
3) Without a doubt Obama dominated his opponents with aesthetic qualities and characteristics that his opponents couldn't match. He was athletic. Approachable. He was a terrific speaker. Charming. Funny. I totally agree that these qualities helped him get votes. A lot of people vote for who they like or admire.
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So you are saying globalization (big all encompassing concept) TPP and Britain staying in the EU are sound policies from a macroeconomic perspective? What segments of society truly gain from shipping-outsourcing manufacturing to Asia? Who gains from policies that lead to greater income inequality? Who gains when there are less domestic consumers because multinational corporations for expediency and subsidized incentives relocate operations? Or in Apple's case illegally use Ireland to avoid domestic taxes?
Don't know about you but I freakin hate snowblowers from China and most of their other trinkets are shipping subsidized to North America in a near market free for all.
Politically we let this happen because of ignorance not in spite of it.
This is a good read. I keep looking for a great visualization on the rapid rise of mergers and acquisitions, which in my opinion, and the writer of that article's opinion is a massively underrated contributor to the joblessness in North America. So many startups now just want to get their company to a level where they're bought out by the biggest shark and retire. The economies of scale lead to massive job losses.
These are complex issues of course and not easily debated without complex ideas that aren't as easy to throw into a sound bite as high tariffs sound but as the article points out, and it's something Mark Cuban has been especially argumentative over lately, it's actually that cost of living would rise substantially for the poor and middle class if goods suddenly were tariffed massively. People are complaining about a carbon tax right now? Protectionism has been tried in America before and failed. Research the Smoot-Hawley tariff act. Better yet, have a look at this old ad from around that time period. It sounds a lot like Trump today with less inflammatory language.

. What's more... nearly as many economists today see the Democratic economic plan as superior. They did then, too, and they were ignored but proven right.

That tariff act was like pouring gasoline on America's fires that were burning and it extended the Great Depression massively. It took FDR to get them out of that mess. If Trump somehow won, which is looking increasingly unlikely, and actually imposed all of those 35% tariffs the biggest winner oddly enough would be a country like Germany. Perhaps Great Britain if they didn't follow the US lead. Other countries would cut America out. Germany's pharmaceutical industry would clean up. Volkswagens would be cheaper than Chevys and Fords in many countries. Audis would be cheaper than Cadillacs and Buicks. And we'd see a whole host of other goods and brands from them flood into the Canadian, British and many other markets in retaliation over the US tariffs. Mark Cuban also pointed out another fallacy in Trump's high tariff concept. How long would it take for any companies to decide they're going to shut down recently built factories overseas and return to America to spend and build brand new ones. A decade? Maybe more. Maybe never given the propensity for regime change in America. Who would make that call without knowing that the next regime wouldn't just revert back? The Trump plan would lead to 4-8 years of less money in people's pockets while they waited and hoped some old factory jobs might return when in fact the Democrats would be focusing on a more modern jobs plan with many of the ideas outlined in the above article, including reducing the tariffs (which is basically what FDR did -- he listened to the economists) and so that entire 4-8 year run of pain would all be for nought and would likely lead to Germany's economic growth and many German brands establishing a stronger foothold in markets that have typically been US-friendly.
As I said, the job losses are an issue and trade is a complex issue but these high tariff gimmicks on offer also have complex repercussions that could lead to more working poverty, less disposable income for middle class working families, and perhaps very little actual job growth before the next regime changes.
Another challenge is that networking means you could have somebody controlling machinery from Mexico that's technically "made" in Flint supervised by one Union worker and QA'd by him. Technology can't be underestimated here. There will be workarounds. What state hosts the cloud?
One final aspect of globalization that is routinely overlooked and perhaps a little similar to global warming in that it's huge but hard for many to fathom or take seriously is the reduced threat of war. Everyone knows China is for real right now. Everyone knows Russia isn't playing around these days either. The biggest reasons why these sanctions work on countries is because they all see the benefits of globalization and so cutting one out can have devastating effects and force them to change. If China wasn't reliant on North America and Europe to buy goods I see little reason to believe they wouldn't be more hostile toward all of us. Their military might and populations are truly mind-boggling and if they wanted additional resources or land and didn't have the economic engine to buy these things legitimately it's not hard at all to imagine a more isolated China eventually having a leader bold enough to imagine taking it with Russia perhaps fanning those flames and joining in as allies. A war like that perhaps wouldn't be seen for another 30-50 years but it could happen and would be nightmarish for all involved if it did. It's far less likely to occur given the impacts of Globalization, which have dramatically reduced wealthy state conflicts from previous centuries. Terrorism may be up. Africa still has major wars. But Globalization, and NATO, and the UN (these are not necessarily related but I'm tying them together here to wrap this up nevertheless) have most of the G8 at least on solid speaking terms. And that's no small feat given our considerable differences.
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