Too much depth for the Nuggets?

[Smitty731]

Hi Guys!

I wrote for RealGM on if the Nuggets actually have too much depth.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243563/How-Denvers-Impressive-Depth-Could-Become-Problematic

Give it a look and let me know your thoughts!

Smitty

[NuggetsWY]

Hi Guys!

I wrote for RealGM on if the Nuggets actually have too much depth.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243563/How-Denvers-Impressive-Depth-Could-Become-Problematic

Give it a look and let me know your thoughts!

Smitty

Love it - On the General Board there is a Minnesota vs. Denver board and one or two said Minnesota was deeper than Denver and it made me laugh.

One question though. Shouldn't "Three first rounders last year and two more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience." Actually read, "Two first rounders last year and three more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience."

[TunaFish]

Damn, if you didn't hit that right on the nail. Can't find anything to argue with except I do see stars developing in the lineup of Jokic and Nurkic.

[Smitty731]

Hi Guys!

I wrote for RealGM on if the Nuggets actually have too much depth.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243563/How-Denvers-Impressive-Depth-Could-Become-Problematic

Give it a look and let me know your thoughts!

Smitty

Love it - On the General Board there is a Minnesota vs. Denver board and one or two said Minnesota was deeper than Denver and it made me laugh.

One question though. Shouldn't "Three first rounders last year and two more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience." Actually read, "Two first rounders last year and three more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience."

I considered the three Murray, Hernangomez and Beasley the 3 and the DEN and MEM picks the 2.

[NuggetsWY]

Hi Guys!

I wrote for RealGM on if the Nuggets actually have too much depth.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243563/How-Denvers-Impressive-Depth-Could-Become-Problematic

Give it a look and let me know your thoughts!

Smitty

Love it - On the General Board there is a Minnesota vs. Denver board and one or two said Minnesota was deeper than Denver and it made me laugh.

One question though. Shouldn't "Three first rounders last year and two more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience." Actually read, "Two first rounders last year and three more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience."

I considered the three Murray, Hernangomez and Beasley the 3 and the DEN and MEM picks the 2.

I wondered about that because last year, Jokic wasn't a first rounder. I just didn't see the "last year" and "this year" the way you did. But I can see why you'd look at it that way. I was more going by the calendar year.

[Smitty731]

Love it - On the General Board there is a Minnesota vs. Denver board and one or two said Minnesota was deeper than Denver and it made me laugh.

One question though. Shouldn't "Three first rounders last year and two more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience." Actually read, "Two first rounders last year and three more this year gives them 1/3 of a roster with one year or less of experience."

I considered the three Murray, Hernangomez and Beasley the 3 and the DEN and MEM picks the 2.

I wondered about that because last year, Jokic wasn't a first rounder. I just didn't see the "last year" and "this year" the way you did. But I can see why you'd look at it that way. I was more going by the calendar year.

Totally fair! I get what you mean.

[skywalker33]

Astute analysis, can't argue a thing. I can easily speculate on a trade happening this year, sans playoffs, but not sure it would be for consolidation or future (2020 or beyond ?) draft picks as that seems where our bread and butter lie. But here's a question I would like expounded upon or at least speculated within the conversation: When do the young guys become the veterans...in their 3rd year, at age 23 or does it depend on their production levels ??? Nurkic and Harris will be in their 4th year next year, when it is anticipated we'll have two NEW rookies to go along with the three we got this year. Mudiay and Jokic will be in their third year with two years as starter, does that give them enough experience to lead the team ??

[The Rebel]

Astute analysis, can't argue a thing. I can easily speculate on a trade happening this year, sans playoffs, but not sure it would be for consolidation or future (2020 or beyond ?) draft picks as that seems where our bread and butter lie. But here's a question I would like expounded upon or at least speculated within the conversation: When do the young guys become the veterans...in their 3rd year, at age 23 or does it depend on their production levels ??? Nurkic and Harris will be in their 4th year next year, when it is anticipated we'll have two NEW rookies to go along with the three we got this year. Mudiay and Jokic will be in their third year with two years as starter, does that give them enough experience to lead the team ??

Personally I have always said barring injuries most players take a big jump in year 3, that is when they have settled into being an NBA player, they understand what they have to do on and off the court (hopefully), and you find out who they will be. Year 4 is when I start considering them veterans as you know what to expect out of them (usually 1 or 2 things improve over an offseason but they stay a very similar type of play) and they know what to expect every night.

[mcmurphy]

PG (Mudiay 33, Nelson 12, Murray 3)
SG (Harris 33, Barton 12, Murray 3)
SF (Gallo 28, Chandler 16,Barton 4)
PF (Jokic 18, Faried 10, Arthur 8, Chandler 8, Gallo 4)
C (Nurkic 25, Jokic 12, Faried 8, Arthur 3)

Mudiay 33
Harris 33
Gallo 32
Jokic 30
Nurkic 25
Chandler 24
Faried 18
Barton 16
Nelson 12
Arthur 11
Murray 6

In my opinion the ideal trade for Denver would be Nelson+PF (Faried or Arthur) for a solid PG like DellaVedova (if it were available)

[Smitty731]

PG (Mudiay 33, Nelson 12, Murray 3)
SG (Harris 33, Barton 12, Murray 3)
SF (Gallo 28, Chandler 16,Barton 4)
PF (Jokic 18, Faried 10, Arthur 8, Chandler 8, Gallo 4)
C (Nurkic 25, Jokic 12, Faried 8, Arthur 3)

Mudiay 33
Harris 33
Gallo 32
Jokic 30
Nurkic 25
Chandler 24
Faried 18
Barton 16
Nelson 12
Arthur 11
Murray 6

In my opinion the ideal trade for Denver would be Nelson+PF (Faried or Arthur) for a solid PG like DellaVedova (if it were available)

This minutes breakdown pretty much locks in to what I was getting at. No minutes at all for Hernangomez and only 6 for Murray is a problem. Those guys both need to play.

Thanks for illustrating it this way where it really stands out!

[Smitty731]

Astute analysis, can't argue a thing. I can easily speculate on a trade happening this year, sans playoffs, but not sure it would be for consolidation or future (2020 or beyond ?) draft picks as that seems where our bread and butter lie. But here's a question I would like expounded upon or at least speculated within the conversation: When do the young guys become the veterans...in their 3rd year, at age 23 or does it depend on their production levels ??? Nurkic and Harris will be in their 4th year next year, when it is anticipated we'll have two NEW rookies to go along with the three we got this year. Mudiay and Jokic will be in their third year with two years as starter, does that give them enough experience to lead the team ??

Personally I have always said barring injuries most players take a big jump in year 3, that is when they have settled into being an NBA player, they understand what they have to do on and off the court (hopefully), and you find out who they will be. Year 4 is when I start considering them veterans as you know what to expect out of them (usually 1 or 2 things improve over an offseason but they stay a very similar type of play) and they know what to expect every night.

I'm in this same camp. Most teams think of it this way too. Basically once guys are clear of the D-League or playing in Summer League, which is usually in year 3 or 4, they consider them locked in vets. Of course, not every player is created or treated equal. But this is usually how it works.

[mcmurphy]

PG (Mudiay 33, Nelson 12, Murray 3)
SG (Harris 33, Barton 12, Murray 3)
SF (Gallo 28, Chandler 16,Barton 4)
PF (Jokic 18, Faried 10, Arthur 8, Chandler 8, Gallo 4)
C (Nurkic 25, Jokic 12, Faried 8, Arthur 3)

Mudiay 33
Harris 33
Gallo 32
Jokic 30
Nurkic 25
Chandler 24
Faried 18
Barton 16
Nelson 12
Arthur 11
Murray 6

In my opinion the ideal trade for Denver would be Nelson+PF (Faried or Arthur) for a solid PG like DellaVedova (if it were available)

This minutes breakdown pretty much locks in to what I was getting at. No minutes at all for Hernangomez and only 6 for Murray is a problem. Those guys both need to play.

Thanks for illustrating it this way where it really stands out!

6 mins for Murray is a bottom prediction if all the guards are healthy
if one of Mudiay-Nelson-Harris-Barton is out Murray easily will reach 15-20 mpg

for Hernangomez I see tougher with Faried-Arthur-Chandler-Gallo-Jokic in front of him for the PF role

a trade with Nelson + Faried or Arthur for a backup PG would give minutes also a Hernangomez

[skywalker33]

I agree with Smitty's premise, all three of our rookies deserve some consistent PT which is why I foresee a trade coming. I don't however, see PT as written in stone, I do think matchups, injuries and "gametime feel" will come into consideration for some PT with our rooks

[Powder Blue]

The Nuggets always have a "big impending trade" on the horizon that has yet to occur. The deals are always smaller in scale and that's all I forsee going forward.

The Broncos have depth (Sans the O-line), good players backing up great/really good players.

At the moment the Nuggets have one really good player in Gallo surrounded by a bunch of good and marginal players. A large issue is that most of the good/marginal players are young and they need PT in order to develop. Because the Nuggets never did a full tank job there are good vets on the team that will absorb minutes from the young players. At the same time the team elected to bring back guys like DA and Nelson so the issue is self-inflicted.

[skywalker33]

The Nuggets always have a "big impending trade" on the horizon that has yet to occur. The deals are always smaller in scale and that's all I forsee going forward.

Well, same can be said of BOS, LAL, PHX, etc.....everyone is always looking for the next big deal

[Powder Blue]

The Nuggets always have a "big impending trade" on the horizon that has yet to occur. The deals are always smaller in scale and that's all I forsee going forward.

Well, same can be said of BOS, LAL, PHX, etc.....everyone is always looking for the next big deal

True but they actually make deals. The buzz around Denver is always about how we have all these assets (players and picks) and are ready to wheel and deal. Come to find out our wheeling and dealing is King J for two 2nds and Randy Foye for DJ and fillers. I'm fine with not making a bad trade, I just don't buy into the trade hype anymore.

[Powder Blue]

PG (Mudiay 33, Nelson 12, Murray 3)
SG (Harris 33, Barton 12, Murray 3)
SF (Gallo 28, Chandler 16,Barton 4)
PF (Jokic 18, Faried 10, Arthur 8, Chandler 8, Gallo 4)
C (Nurkic 25, Jokic 12, Faried 8, Arthur 3)

Mudiay 33
Harris 33
Gallo 32
Jokic 30
Nurkic 25
Chandler 24
Faried 18
Barton 16
Nelson 12
Arthur 11
Murray 6

In my opinion the ideal trade for Denver would be Nelson+PF (Faried or Arthur) for a solid PG like DellaVedova (if it were available)

This minutes breakdown pretty much locks in to what I was getting at. No minutes at all for Hernangomez and only 6 for Murray is a problem. Those guys both need to play.

Thanks for illustrating it this way where it really stands out!

6 mins for Murray is a bottom prediction if all the guards are healthy
if one of Mudiay-Nelson-Harris-Barton is out Murray easily will reach 15-20 mpg

for Hernangomez I see tougher with Faried-Arthur-Chandler-Gallo-Jokic in front of him for the PF role

a trade with Nelson + Faried or Arthur for a backup PG would give minutes also a Hernangomez

A couple things overlooked in this minutes distribution...

1. If Malone wants to win he won't play 11 guys night in, night out.
2. He won't have that problem because a rotation player on this roster will always be injured.

[NuggetsWY]

A couple things overlooked in this minutes distribution...

1. If Malone wants to win he won't play 11 guys night in, night out.
2. He won't have that problem because a rotation player on this roster will always be injured.

In my youth, teams tended to play 7 or 8 guys between 25-40 minutes each. There would be one or two guys that got 5-8 mpg and that would be the rotation - mostly and I didn't really pay CLOSE attention, so I might be off a little, but not much. There also did not appear to be as many injuries.

Modern NBA is different in some respects - players are more athletic and that probably has helped increase injuries - earth-bound players are less likely to be injured plus the game was slower, fast breaks were "more controlled" and players trailing the fast break tended to jog more than try to catch up and that allowed them to play longer. Most teams today want most players playing 30 mpg or less (I said "most" twice there, so don't jump on that limit). So rotations tend to go 10 or 11 deep on many teams BUT and that's a BIG BUT, Powder Blue hits this on the head. 11 guys night in, night out is not the way to win, not depending on 11 guys. He needs a rotation of 8, maybe 9 guys that are playing the majority of the minutes. The other plays might get short minutes depending on the game - either for matchup reasons, foul problems, or in a blow-out either direction. That's not just the way I see it, that's the way NBA coaches play it and they get a lot of money to know this stuff.

My biggest fear is an injury to Jokic or Nurkic but with that said, and not worrying about minutes, while wishing to see our young bucks play more, here are my two rotation choices.

Malone's most likely lineup
Jokic - Nurkic - Faried - Gallinari - Chandler - Harris - Barton - Mudiay - Nelson

The lineup this idiot thinks should play now to be best for the Nuggets three years from now
Jokic - Nurkic - Hernangomez - Gallinari - Chandler - Harris - Beasley - Mudiay - Murray
limit Gallinari & Chandler minutes for health reasons

[RationalGaze]

Plenty of depth = plenty of trades. Better to have a full hand than waiting to draw a card

[psimanic1]

If we are going to play Jokic at PF, wouldn't it be nice to get Noel as backup big for Faried + something if we could?
That way we have 2 good defensive minded C's, and Jokic and Hernangomez as offensive minded PF's..