tonman wrote:hood30 wrote:tonman wrote:points are meaningless. field goal attempts are better gauge as Lin should remain efficient 1.2+ pps. Therefore if Lin manages to shoot 15 fga, he should score 18-20 ppg.
but the fga may vary as I'd like to see 6-7 free throws per game. that means he's not in love with the three and is attacking.
so let's not get to carried away with points. for lin to be effective, he needs to make the defense play him and that will make his teammates job easier.
If the motion offense is deployed heavily, I'm not sure Lin will hit the high numbers that some believe he'll do easily.
It looks like Kenny wants a very balanced offense instead of just relying on Lin/Lopez to take half of the shot attempt.
I still think Lin could average about 16-17 point per game under a heavy motion offense system...not sure he can do 18-20 ppg unless he's given a good doze of PnR.
The other big caveat is his shooting...If he can be more consistent as a shooter, he' could get up to 20ppg.
again, you're so tied to scoring and shooting percentage. if he shoots at a high percentage, the defense will key on him and make him give up the ball. that's great in getting his teammates going but not great for scoring. he will need some easy baskets or transition baskets to score 20 ppg. that's why having the court spread is important. that is why having multiple scorers are important. not sure this team is good enough defensively to make stops and run or actually get out on the break and score.
I'm also of the belief that Lin will not average 20ppg.
First, all of the PGs who average 20ppg or more are superstars and/or elite scorers.
The 20ppg PGs from the 2015-16 season:
1) Steph Curry - 30.1ppg (Superstar; arguably GOAT offensive season)
2) Lillard - 25.1ppg (Allstar; elite offensive scorer)
3) Russell Westbrook - 23.5ppg (Superstar; GOAT drive,attack,& draw fouls PPG)
4) Isaiah Thomas - 22.2ppg (Allstar; excellent scorer, an SG in a PG's body)
5) Kemba Walker - 20.9ppg (high volume shooter, more an SG than a traditional PG)
6) Eric Bledsoe - 20.4ppg (borderline; very good all-around PG)
7) John Wall - 19.9ppg (Allstar; high USG%(28.6), floor general/ball-controlling)
8) Kyrie Irving - 19.6ppg (Allstar; dynamic scorer)
9) Brandon Knight - 19.6ppg (combo guard; great scorer)
10) Chris Paul - 19.5ppg (Allstar/superstar; PointGod)
11) Reggie Jackson - 18.8ppg (borderline allstar; more of an established scorer)
I deduce a couple of things based on this list:
1) You can't debate whether Lin is or should be a starting PG in this league but also demand that he score 20ppg. Each of the aforementioned PGs (with the exception of a Brandon Knight) is a top 10-15 PG in the league. If Lin came close to scoring 20ppg, that argument should officially be put to bed.
2) Each of these PGs is better at the art of scoring than Lin. Regardless of how you feel about them as an overall PG, each PGs overall ability to shoot, drive and attack, draw fouls and shoot FTs is better than Lin's overall ability. The only way for Lin to reach 20ppg would be for him to really improve his scoring ability. And if he does so, we're talking about a PG who's definitely top 15 in the league.
The argument about the fact that he HAS to average 20ppg or else we're not winning anything has yet to be tested, let alone proven. Atkinson has already distanced himself from D'Antoni and his system saying that he doesn't want to run a system where the PG runs everything.
If the Nets start off 0-18, then all bets are off. However, if Atkinson has any say in the matter I'm almost willing to sig bet that Lin wouldn't reach the 20ppg plateau because he believes that you beat teams collectively, not with a 1-2 offensive punch of non-superstars.
3) Each of these PGs has gone through the rigors of an NBA season and demonstrated that they are capable of scoring close to, if not over, 20ppg for most of the NBA season.
The only time that LIn has come close to averaging 20ppg PER 36 minutes is when Linsanity occurred. At that time, he was given full control of a D'Antoni-led offense that wants the PG to control everything.
Additionally, considering that Linsanity occurred in the latter half of the season, no team could afford to study him and draw up a gameplan to stop him (or at least hinder his effectiveness). While Lin is a better overall PG than he was back then, teams know who he is and they'll have a gameplan to try to takeaway what he likes to do.
4) I understand the argument that Lin has to score because he and Brook are the two best players on the team.
While I do agree with that sentiment, I do not think that this will bear itself out in Lin averaging 20ppg for an entire season. I don't have as much faith in the scoring capabilities of his teammates as GoodDayLa.
Brook should get 19-21ppg.
Bogs should get 12-15.
Skil should get 12-15.
Harris can probably get 9-11.
Scola will probably get 8-10.
RHJ will scrap his way to 8-11.
Foye (Whitehead, whoever plays that 15mpg 2 spot) will get 8-11.
Vazquez (if healthy) should get about 10.
If I take the lowest number for each of those players that brings me to 86.
Unless this offense goes bananas, there's no way we're averaging 106ppg. I expect to Lin to comfortably sit at the 15-17ppg range. This would put the Nets at 101-103ppg, which puts us anywhere between 10th and 20th for team PPG based on last year's averages.
In short, I don't think there's anyway Lin averages more than 17.5ppg.
- Those who score more than 18ppg are at least 1 tier above Lin in their ability to create and score. Lin hasn't shown the ability to do that since he was an unstudied commodity during Linsanity.
- Including his Linsanity period, we have zero evidence that he can handle that much of a scoring load over an 82-game season. Not only can we not afford to work him that much, I think you'd see significant diminishing returns if he averaged more than 15FGApg.