1983 Moses Malone or 1995 David Robinson

[E-Balla]

Eh, I'm comfortable giving Moses the edge offensively, but I think saying "they're levels apart" offensively overstates things pretty substantially. I don't think a guy who is capable of winning a scoring title on good efficiency for a playoff-level team (and avg >25 ppg on fair efficiency in the playoffs, too, generally while facing frequent doubles) is "levels apart" from anyone except the most singularly elite offensive players (guys like Lebron, Jordan, Kareem, etc).

Would you ever say this about a comparison between Carmelo and Lebron?

[trex_8063]

Eh, I'm comfortable giving Moses the edge offensively, but I think saying "they're levels apart" offensively overstates things pretty substantially. I don't think a guy who is capable of winning a scoring title on good efficiency for a playoff-level team (and avg >25 ppg on fair efficiency in the playoffs, too, generally while facing frequent doubles) is "levels apart" from anyone except the most singularly elite offensive players (guys like Lebron, Jordan, Kareem, etc).

Would you ever say this about a comparison between Carmelo and Lebron?

Yes. I'd say Robinson and Lebron are "levels apart" offensively, too. But Moses ain't Lebron (and actually Melo ain't quite Robinson, either).

[E-Balla]

Eh, I'm comfortable giving Moses the edge offensively, but I think saying "they're levels apart" offensively overstates things pretty substantially. I don't think a guy who is capable of winning a scoring title on good efficiency for a playoff-level team (and avg >25 ppg on fair efficiency in the playoffs, too, generally while facing frequent doubles) is "levels apart" from anyone except the most singularly elite offensive players (guys like Lebron, Jordan, Kareem, etc).

Would you ever say this about a comparison between Carmelo and Lebron?

Yes. I'd say Robinson and Lebron are "levels apart" offensively, too. But Moses ain't Lebron (and actually Melo ain't quite Robinson, either).

You mean you wouldn't say they're levels apart?

[trex_8063]

Would you ever say this about a comparison between Carmelo and Lebron?

Yes. I'd say Robinson and Lebron are "levels apart" offensively, too. But Moses ain't Lebron (and actually Melo ain't quite Robinson, either).

You mean you wouldn't say they're levels apart?

Carmelo and Lebron are levels apart offensively.
Robinson and Lebron are levels apart offensively.
Carmelo and Robinson are not levels apart offensively (but I'd give a small edge to Robinson).

[E-Balla]

Yes. I'd say Robinson and Lebron are "levels apart" offensively, too. But Moses ain't Lebron (and actually Melo ain't quite Robinson, either).

You mean you wouldn't say they're levels apart?

Carmelo and Lebron are levels apart offensively.
Robinson and Lebron are levels apart offensively.
Carmelo and Robinson are not levels apart offensively (but I'd give a small edge to Robinson).

So you put Moses Malone's offense closer to Robinson than a Dirk, Hakeem, or Shaq?

[trex_8063]

So you put Moses Malone's offense closer to Robinson than a Dirk, Hakeem, or Shaq?

Depends which of the three we're specifically talking about, I guess. At their respective peaks offensively, I'd rate that trio Shaq>Dirk>Hakeem, fwiw.
I think Moses is closer to peak Hakeem than to peak Robinson offensively. With Dirk, I'm not sure. Where Shaq is concerned (at least if we're talking peaks), I'd probably rate Moses closer to Robinson, yes.

[E-Balla]

So you put Moses Malone's offense closer to Robinson than a Dirk, Hakeem, or Shaq?

Depends which of the three we're specifically talking about, I guess. At their respective peaks offensively, I'd rate that trio Shaq>Dirk>Hakeem, fwiw.
I think Moses is closer to peak Hakeem than to peak Robinson offensively. With Dirk, I'm not sure. Where Shaq is concerned (at least if we're talking peaks), I'd probably rate Moses closer to Robinson, yes.

How do you feel about the old Sixers +/- we found that said Moses had one of the top offensive on/offs ever? Personally I think his offensive rebounding and the impact from that makes him around those 3 offensively as far as ATG scoring bigmen go.

[trex_8063]

So you put Moses Malone's offense closer to Robinson than a Dirk, Hakeem, or Shaq?

Depends which of the three we're specifically talking about, I guess. At their respective peaks offensively, I'd rate that trio Shaq>Dirk>Hakeem, fwiw.
I think Moses is closer to peak Hakeem than to peak Robinson offensively. With Dirk, I'm not sure. Where Shaq is concerned (at least if we're talking peaks), I'd probably rate Moses closer to Robinson, yes.

How do you feel about the old Sixers +/- we found that said Moses had one of the top offensive on/offs ever? Personally I think his offensive rebounding and the impact from that makes him around those 3 offensively as far as ATG scoring bigmen go.

Yeah, it was impressive (+18.3 or similar, iirc; and I believe it was '83 that number came from). With raw on/off's you have to take note of who is going "on" when Moses goes "off" (and vice versa), though.

His primary sub at center in '83 was Earl Cureton. This is a guy who was going for just 11.8 pts/100 possessions @ -9.83% rTS and a 0.57 Ast:TO ratio, 4.0 OReb/100 poss. His PER 8.1, .041 WS/48 (which is really hard to have one that poor/low on such a winning team, as this metric has a bit of winners bias), -3.9 OBPM, and an individual ORtg of 87 (-21.3 to team average, -17.7 to league average).
I mean, that is a horrifically bad offensive player. And that's the primary sub.

Probably the next-most frequent sub at center was Clemon Johnson, who was significantly better offensively, though still unimpressive: 14.5 pts/100 poss @ -1.10% rTS, 0.67 Ast:TO ratio, 5.0 OReb/100 poss; 12.8 PER, .125 WS/48 (again: 65-win team), 108 ORtg, -0.9 OBPM.

Frankly, if you hold claim to being a big-time offensive anchor and these are your subs, you damn well better have a really impressive offensive on/off.


If we're going to cite raw on/off, take note for instance of '15 Chris Paul (might be the best rs offensive on/off on record???): +19.9. And his subs weren't quite as bad as Moses's.
His primary sub was some rotating door of Austin Rivers/Jordan Farmar/Nate Robinson (bad offensively, but not as bad as Cureton was in '83); and otherwise was covered by Jamal Crawford (not bad at all). And his offensive lift was still a little superior to '83 Moses.

And none of this is meant to denigrate Moses. He's an amazing offensive player. I just don't see him has some near GOAT-level offensive anchor who is tiers ahead of Robinson.

[E-Balla]

Depends which of the three we're specifically talking about, I guess. At their respective peaks offensively, I'd rate that trio Shaq>Dirk>Hakeem, fwiw.
I think Moses is closer to peak Hakeem than to peak Robinson offensively. With Dirk, I'm not sure. Where Shaq is concerned (at least if we're talking peaks), I'd probably rate Moses closer to Robinson, yes.

How do you feel about the old Sixers +/- we found that said Moses had one of the top offensive on/offs ever? Personally I think his offensive rebounding and the impact from that makes him around those 3 offensively as far as ATG scoring bigmen go.

Yeah, it was impressive (+18.3 or similar, iirc; and I believe it was '83 that number came from). With raw on/off's you have to take note of who is going "on" when Moses goes "off" (and vice versa), though.

His primary sub at center in '83 was Earl Cureton. This is a guy who was going for just 11.8 pts/100 possessions @ -9.83% rTS and a 0.57 Ast:TO ratio, 4.0 OReb/100 poss. His PER 8.1, .041 WS/48 (which is really hard to have one that poor/low on such a winning team, as this metric has a bit of winners bias), -3.9 OBPM, and an individual ORtg of 87 (-21.3 to team average, -17.7 to league average).
I mean, that is a horrifically bad offensive player. And that's the primary sub.

Probably the next-most frequent sub at center was Clemon Johnson, who was significantly better offensively, though still unimpressive: 14.5 pts/100 poss @ -1.10% rTS, 0.67 Ast:TO ratio, 5.0 OReb/100 poss; 12.8 PER, .125 WS/48 (again: 65-win team), 108 ORtg, -0.9 OBPM.

Frankly, if you hold claim to being a big-time offensive anchor and these are your subs, you damn well better have a really impressive offensive on/off.


If we're going to cite raw on/off, take note for instance of '15 Chris Paul (might be the best rs offensive on/off on record???): +19.9. And his subs weren't quite as bad as Moses's.
His primary sub was some rotating door of Austin Rivers/Jordan Farmar/Nate Robinson (bad offensively, but not as bad as Cureton was in '83); and otherwise was covered by Jamal Crawford (not bad at all). And his offensive lift was still a little superior to '83 Moses.

And none of this is meant to denigrate Moses. He's an amazing offensive player. I just don't see him has some near GOAT-level offensive anchor who is tiers ahead of Robinson.

I'd say CP3's primary sub's were just as bad comparatively (I mean PGs are better than Cs offensively overall). Austin Rivers and Farmar were pretty terrible. And I can see you wanting more proof but personally when I see him leading top ranked offenses in Houston with bad teammates (even ranked first one year), I see Houston going from 8th the last without him (comparing 82 to 83), and I see tangible support for his impact being amazing in Philly I find it hard not to put him on that level as an offensive anchor.

[JordansBulls]

This is a classic case where stats and/or breaking down each player into strength and weaknesses just doesn't give the right picture. Moses Malone just went at you. He was relentless, he broke down your spirit, he mowed you and your team down. And the only reason 1983 Moses didn't put up monster stats is he played an all-time great team. The year prior he put up 31/15... Anyways it's hard to hold the stacked team against him when he had to go up against the Showtime Lakers.

Give me Moses and I don't wanna say easily but comfortably to be honest.

Yes, Moses had the killer instinct that the Admiral lacked.

It helps with Dr J on your squad.

[2klegend]

D-Rob is the 6th Center after the holy five. His game is also more portable across era. In fact, he is the most portable center.

[wojoaderge]

This is a classic case where stats and/or breaking down each player into strength and weaknesses just doesn't give the right picture. Moses Malone just went at you. He was relentless, he broke down your spirit, he mowed you and your team down. And the only reason 1983 Moses didn't put up monster stats is he played an all-time great team. The year prior he put up 31/15... Anyways it's hard to hold the stacked team against him when he had to go up against the Showtime Lakers.

Give me Moses and I don't wanna say easily but comfortably to be honest.

Yes, Moses had the killer instinct that the Admiral lacked.

It helps with Dr J on your squad.

Helps even more when you get Tim Duncan after never once reaching the Finals. Which is a lot different than leading only the 2nd team in NBA history to reach the Finals with a losing record.

[70sFan]

David Robinson:

RS - 36.9 pts, 14.5 trb, 3.9 ast, 4.3 blk and 3.8 tov on 60.2% TS (+5.9% rTS)
PS - 32.6 pts, 15.6 trb, 4.0 ast, 3.4 blk and 4.8 tov on 53.6% TS (-0.7% rTS)

Moses Malone:
RS - 30.5 pts, 19.1 trb, 1.6 ast, 2.5 blk and 4.2 tov on 57.8% TS (+4.7% rTS)
PS - 31.9 pts, 19.4 trb, 1.9 ast, 2.4 blk and 3.8 tov on 58.7% TS (+5.6% rTS)

Defensive gap is big in this comparison (in favor to Admiral of course), but I'm not quick on discredit Moses. He was clearly better offensive player in my opinion - much more dominant. Maybe not the most polished (his passing is a real problem) but still clearly better.

Personally, I'd love to see early 80s Moses vs 1995 Hakeem matchup in postseason. Moses isn't a great pick to guard Olajuwon, but unless Hakeem wouldn't guard Moses (Rockets didn't have any other player to fight him under the boards) he would get tired quickly, maybe even with foul troubles. That's the mistery of Moses success - his offensive style was so physical that few players could stay on the court with him playing his normal form. I don't think Hakeem (really great athlete btw.) at 32 years old could do it.

Overall, Robinson is more complete player and better defender and I'd take him most of the times. But in playoff series against other all time great bigs or against strong defenses give me Moses without a doubt.

One more thing - Robinson would be much better 2nd option while Moses is better suited to be 1st option.

[trex_8063]

I'd say CP3's primary sub's were just as bad comparatively (I mean PGs are better than Cs offensively overall). Austin Rivers and Farmar were pretty terrible.

Eh, agree to disagree then. Cureton was a special kind of bad offensively; it's pretty plain in the numbers.

And I can see you wanting more proof but personally when I see him leading top ranked offenses in Houston with bad teammates (even ranked first one year), I see Houston going from 8th the last without him (comparing 82 to 83), and I see tangible support for his impact being amazing in Philly I find it hard not to put him on that level as an offensive anchor.

I don’t think it’s fair to uniformly call all of his Houston supporting casts “bad”. I mean, they definitely were never “good”, but they weren’t flat bad every year. Were actually decent in ‘77 (offensively anyway); few other years not too bad offensively, at least when compared to DRob’s pre-Duncan casts.
Up thru ‘80 he had Calvin Murphy, Rudy Tomjanovich, and aging Rick Barry; Robert Reid was becoming halfway decent too. Robert Reid, in ‘81 at the very least, would be roughly on par with the SF Robinson had (Sean Elliott).

And while it’s true Moses led some #1 offenses, there’s some more granular detail to take into account…..

In ‘76 (the year before Moses arrived), with an offensive-minded coach Houston’s offense was already 1st of 18 teams (though a relatively modest +2.8 rORTG). They were also dead last defensively (+3.5 rDRTG). Then Moses would arrive (another offensive-minded coach for the first three seasons)….

‘77: +5.0 rORTG (1st/22), +3.4 rDRTG (22nd/22)
‘78: +1.3 rORTG (6th/22), +5.2 rDRTG (22nd/22)
‘79: +4.9 rORTG (1st/22), +3.9 rDRTG (21st/22)
‘80 (new coach): +2.8 rORTG (4th/22), +2.7 rDRTG (18th/22)
‘81: +1.5 rORTG (9th/23), +1.2 rDRTG (16th/23)
‘82: +1.4 rORTG (8th/23), +1.4 rDRTG (16th/23)
‘83 (Moses gone): -7.7 rORTG (23rd/23), +3.6 rDRTG (19th/23)

Although obviously Moses leaving was the biggest change, it’s worth noting some other changes in ‘83: Robert Reid (who was the 3rd-best player on the ‘82 team---and arguably the 2nd-best offensive player) also left that year. Already past-prime (in ‘82) Murphy and Hayes are both yet another year older. And Moses’s replacement at center was the defensively decent (but offensively poor) Caldwell Jones. So his leaving is not the only factor playing into that big drop-off.

And his addition to Philly provided a 0.9 improvement over the previous year to their rORTG, and a 0.8 improvement to their rDRTG (+1.7 shift overall).


Let’s look at the same information regarding the Spurs from before Robinson’s arrival until his injury year….

‘89 (before Robinson): -6.9 rORTG (23rd/25), +0.1 rDRTG (13th/25)

Roster changes that would occur in ‘90:
*Most notably is incoming rookie David Robinson.
**Also add rookie Sean Elliott (he wasn’t all that good or important in his rookie season, though).
***Alvin Robertson at SG and Greg Anderson (PF/C) were gone in trade to obtain Terry Cummings. I think that’s a small net-positive trade, but not too substantial.
****A tiny upgrade at PG (Johnny Dawkins was PG in ‘89, but he would leave and it would be ~half-season each from old Mo Cheeks and Rod Strickland in ‘90).
So overall there were some modest upgrades outside of obtaining rookie Robinson. Obviously he’s by far the biggest addition/change.

‘90: -0.4 rORTG (15th/27), -3.9 rDRTG (3rd/27)
‘91: -0.1 rORTG (14th/27), -4.6 rDRTG (1st/27)
‘92: -0.7 rORTG (14th/27), -4.1 rDRTG (1st/27)
‘93 (multiple coaching changes, Avery Johnson now starting PG): +1.6 rORTG (8th/27), -1.2 rDRTG (10th/27)
‘94: +4.1 rORTG (4th/27), -1.7 rDRTG (9th/27)
‘95: +3.4 rORTG (5th/27), -2.9 rDRTG (5th/27)
‘96: +2.6 rORTG (9th/29), -4.1 rDRTG (3rd/29)
‘97 (Robinson misses season): -3.4 rORTG (27th/29), +5.6 rDRTG (29th/29)


So looking at the before/after (and during) picture for both players, here are some of the take-aways I see…..
1) the offensive success of Moses’s Houston teams, overall, is only marginally better than that of the pre-Duncan Spurs.
2) the offensive lift seen when Robinson arrives appears significantly larger than the one noted when Moses arrived. Otoh, the offensive drop-off when Moses left appears larger than the one seen when DRob was injured. (other mitigating factors in both cases, though).
3) the defensive lift provided by Robinson clearly exceeds that of Moses by a good large margin.
4) The total lift on Moses’s arrival was +2.3 (+2.2 on ORtg, -0.1 to DRtg).
The total lift on Robinson’s arrival was +10.5 (+6.5 to ORtg, -4.0 to DRtg).
5) The total drop-off when Moses left the Rockets was -11.3 (-9.1 to ORtg, +2.2 to DRtg).
The total drop-off when Robinson got injured was -15.7 (-6.0 to ORtg, +9.7 to DRtg).

One could argue that the ‘97 Spurs were tanking to get the #1 draft pick (Tim Duncan); however it’s a moot argument, as the exact same thing could be said of the ‘83 Rockets, who were after one of the most-hyped draft prospects in NBA history (Ralph Sampson).


So I still don’t see how this type of study reflects a massive difference in offensive impact, or perhaps even any at all (read: at least in the regular season). I won’t deny Moses’s offensive prowess carried forward into the playoffs better than did Robinson’s. I don’t see it as the clincher argument, however, given how much more Robinson provides defensively.

[Im Your Father]

David Robinson:


Personally, I'd love to see early 80s Moses vs 1995 Hakeem matchup in postseason. Moses isn't a great pick to guard Olajuwon, but unless Hakeem wouldn't guard Moses (Rockets didn't have any other player to fight him under the boards) he would get tired quickly, maybe even with foul troubles. That's the mistery of Moses success - his offensive style was so physical that few players could stay on the court with him playing his normal form. I don't think Hakeem (really great athlete btw.) at 32 years old could do it.

I feel like that describes Shaq pretty perfectly, and Hakeem actually did face him in 95.

[Djoker]

Not that it's a big decisive argument but Moses well in his 30's was outplaying young Hakeem and Ewing. Pounding them on the boards and getting them in lots of foul trouble. The impact of the offensive rebounds and fouling out the opposition are two things that don't show up on the stat sheet for Moses and make him a way more dominant offensive player than Robinson.