JohnStockton wrote:Jeremy used to be a below-average defender IMO. Then he got to somewhere being average defensively. Last year, he seemingly took a solid step forward and became a clear plus-defender. This is based on just the eye test.
That said, I haven't liked Jeremy's defense that much so far. He's been okay at best, but I've seen him get beaten off the dribble badly on a handful of occasions.
While it's important to give credit to JLin for being a very good defender last year, it is also important to note that he played that defense against Shooting Guards. Because of that, I was a bit unsure of how to rate his defense against Point Guards.
At this [too early] point, it seems like Jeremy has gone back to having average defensive impact on the game.
However, I don't think this is some physical/skill reversion or something.
I think it's due to the fact that with the league downsizing, Lin at 6'3--with good contesting instincts and a speed advantage over all Shooting guards--can guard and contest the vast majority of Shooting Guards in the league. The only SGs who gave him trouble were SGs with post games (Joe Johnson/Wade), and very large SGs who could just shoot over him (Klay 6'6). Almost everyone else, he covered well.
However, this year at the PG position, Lin has given up man-on-man penetration quite often, and his defensive impact hasn't been the same. I think this is clearly due to the nature that opposing PGs are just a lot quicker off the dribble than SGs. To be fair, it's pretty much impossible to keep competent PGs out of getting penetration without handchecking, so it's not a huge knock to Lin--but it also means that Lin won't have as much of a defensive impact as he did last year (just through the nature of playing PG).
One of the perks of having Lin is that he has combo-guard ability, but the team can't take advantage of that because they don't have another competent PG to play alongside him if they want to slide him to the 2. Another issue is that if Lin allows penetration, this team doesn't have mobile bigs that can cover up for the penetration and recover to their man in time. The closest thing they have is Booker... and he's the only big capable of doing that. All the other bigs are very laterally slow. This is what is going to kill the team IMO. Even if they play good fundamental defense and give good rotations, their big-men will still rotate too slowly... simply because they're naturally slow footed.
Good analysis. My only disagreement is that I think Lin has been the same defender since his rookie year in Golden State and slowly declined due to age, usage on his legs, and bulking up. Perception about him changed, that is all. He was the teams designated PG defensive specialist in Golden State to someone who supposedly couldn't guard a cone in Houston, to more of that in LA, to ok defender in Charlotte.
Your actual analysis is pretty sensible and seems on point. I agree with most of it. I actually think Lin's looked pretty bad on defense in the preseason particularly against IT in the last game. Keep in mind, I've seen Lin play harder defensively and he kind of looks like he's going through the motions at times this pre season.
However, I think this worry about defense is overrated with Lin.
I'm on the school of thought that you need to be decent on both ends. If you can't score, you can be a great defender but still lose every game.
For me, Lin's a B defender but an A offensive talent. He's a net positive and this will become clear as the season goes on in my belief.
Sure, he gives up points on a drive or shot, then he goes and gets 3 layups or dump offs of his own so its a net positive. This happens to every single NBA player and every team. The key isn't if Lin can stop every single PG from penetration (he can't & nobody can). But can he make life tough on that end with his team and then do damage on offensive? That he can.
Lastly I agree on Booker's value. They could use more athletic smart bigs. I wish they got Gerald Green for the wing at 2 guard even as a bench guy who is missing a finger.
Look at Boston. Lin can't guard IT and Bojan can't guard Bradley? It's even scarier the other way. IT can't guard Lin AT ALL and Bojan can bully Bradley in the post or shoot over the much shorter guy.
The reason the team is losing in preseason is Vaquez is a D on offense and an C on defense. And we've got Bojan handling the ball on the perimeter trying to cross up defenders instead of catching and shooting and driving decisively off triple threat because he's stuck playing with recently cut players all pre-season & Vasquez as his PG instead of Lin. If Kenny can fix these issues, this team can compete.
