Official Thread: Preseason Wizards vs Cavs (10/18/16)

[AFM]

Nicholson is the GOAT

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nicholson is the GOAT

Looks like three months ago I was being too pessimistic:

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1460514&start=60#start_here

With respect to playing time, there are several bigs now and all cannot play. Assuming Gortat and Morris start at C and PF respectively, minutes have to be split now among Mahinmi ($16M per year--more than Gortat earns), Nicholson, and Smith.

Andrew Nicholson won't play much this year, either, most likely.

This guy's optimism might just play out:

The optimistic scenario is that Nicholson plays well enough to take the starting job from Morris or Morris returns to form from his 2013-4 season. hey are both relatively young so improvement is possible, even if not likely. That would at least mean the starter at PF is average and the back-up is ok. The Mahinmi/Smith combination gets some minutes, I don't know if it particularly matters who is the C and who is the PF.

More likely is PF is 3 below average players and a good player out of position(Mahinmi). Which really sounds like a repeat of last year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Mahinmi's injury, Jason Smith's suckiness, and Andrew Nicholson tonight both outscoring and out rebounding King James; have all made the plot thicken.

Nicholson's going to see good minutes this season, apparently.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Beal had 5 assists, 0 turnovers.

Didn't see this game, but I do like that stat!

[TGW]

Nicholson might start over Morris sooner or later. Nicholson has a legit offensive skillset, and he seems as though he's a better rebounder than MM. Kieff is about as mediocre a player as you'll find in this league.

[stevemcqueen1]

I second everyone's thoughts on Nicholson. He is unbelievably smooth with the ball in his hands. He has absolutely no explosion to him but he stumped the Cavs interior defenders with that wonderful below the rim game. Great touch on all of his shots, especially his free throws and deep jumpers. Gotta figure out a way to hide him on D so that we can play him a ton of minutes.

Also agreed that our depth is a lot better this year. They should be considering the resources we spent on the bench. Oubre and Nicholson and Mahinmi are worthy rotation players for any team. I think Burke and Sato will get there too. We've got a nice 10 man rotation now.

The four starters plus Oubre looked good coming out of the half. They clamped down on the Cavs starters on defense. Oubre settled in and started playing D and working around the court away from the ball. The other four guys have obviously developed some chemistry together. They find each other when they get into trouble and cover for each others gambles and mistakes on defense. They've started to execute the little things that are important to fluid team play but take a lot of time to develop.

On Burke, I thought he had a nice game again. He puts pressure on defenses with his speed and aggressive style, but he needs to learn to balance that attacking mentality with slowing it down and making sure his teammates stay involved. Can't be calling his own number so early in a shot clock in a half court possession as much as he does. I thought he played a more balanced game tonight.

If I were Brooks, I would keep McClellan, Eddie, and O'Bryant for roster spots 13, 14, and 15. I'd prefer to keep Ochefu over Eddie, but Jason Smith's presence on the roster makes it difficult to keep both O'Bryant and Ochefu. And I don't think you can go into the year with just Otto and Kelly as your only real SFs. If the choice is between O'Bryant and Ochefu, I believe O'Bryant is the better player right now and that he has outplayed Ochefu. Ochefu looks like he has more potential though. I'd be fine keeping either.

[payitforward]

I guess some people were able to see the game. I wasn't

Obviously, Nicholson had an extraordinarily good game. Great scoring, good rebounding, no TOs and a couple of steals to put a candle on the cake. He had a very good game against Sacramento as well. In fact, Nicholson is having a terrific pre-season -- his TS% is .61 (driven by .47 on threes). He's averaging 10.3 boards per 40 minutes (not great - but ok), he's not turning it over or fouling, and he's even got a block, a couple of assists & 3 steals.

Those are all star numbers, pure and simple. Unfortunately, they do not resemble his numbers in any season & certainly not over his @3750 minute career. Nicholson is a career .336 three point shooter, 8.8 boards/40 minutes, .529 TS%, etc. Every number on his career-long resume is below average for an NBA 4 -- every one of them, that is, except for TOs where his number is just about average.

We'll see regression to the mean, obviously. He'll be the below average 4 he's always been. But -- there is good news all the same! He is better than Markieff Morris!

On their careers, their rebounding is just about the same (a very small edge to MM). Morris has more assists and steals, but he also has more turnovers. Markieff also scores about 1 point more every 40 minutes, but he does it w/ lower efficiency: his TS% on his career is .514 to Nicholson's .529 (average big: .544).

Hence, the more of Morris' minutes Nicholson takes the better for the Wizards -- not much better but, hey, we need everything we can get if we are going to reach the heights of 40 wins in the 7th year of a rebuild, right? So... go Andrew Nicholson!

[Rafael122]

Yeah I'm not as down on the bench as others. I don't quite think we're 10 deep yet, but at the very least we're solid 1-8.

[jivelikenice]

With Markieff's slow start and his experience being a 6th man and performing well in that role in '13-'14 I'd be good starting Nicholson. Adds another 3 pt threat to the starting lineup.

[Ed Wood]

Oh, oh dear, no good, yes those are very bad things, quite the rap sheet. *Turns pencil around and starts to erase Markieff Morris' name in the starting rotation*

Just to be clear though, Nicholson won't actually be a good player unless his play this year departs significantly from his career mean. He could very easily be a more effective offensive player than Morris (probably will save for his passing ability) but the secret to the team's mediocrity recently has been competent defense and Morris will probably remain the starter for that reason.

Or because the team has to justify having made a bad decision in trading for him, whatevs.

edit: Ew, did I just crow about having foreseen Markieff Morris being super medium? Gross.

[Dat2U]

I'm more concerned about our starters inability to hang with Cleveland's starters. To me this speak to the reality of our situation instead of getting excited about a career backup and fringe rotation player that's having an unsustainable hot streak shooting wise.

[TGW]

I'm more concerned about our starters inability to hang with Cleveland's starters. To me this speak to the reality of our situation instead of getting excited about a career backup and fringe rotation player that's having an unsustainable hot streak shooting wise.

Why are you worried about that? You know damn well this franchise doesn't see themselves as competition for the Cavs. The FO is setting the bar real low...43 wins and the 7th or 8th seed will be a touted as a victory for the franchise.

[Dat2U]

I second everyone's thoughts on Nicholson. He is unbelievably smooth with the ball in his hands. He has absolutely no explosion to him but he stumped the Cavs interior defenders with that wonderful below the rim game. Great touch on all of his shots, especially his free throws and deep jumpers. Gotta figure out a way to hide him on D so that we can play him a ton of minutes.

Also agreed that our depth is a lot better this year. They should be considering the resources we spent on the bench. Oubre and Nicholson and Mahinmi are worthy rotation players for any team. I think Burke and Sato will get there too. We've got a nice 10 man rotation now.

The four starters plus Oubre looked good coming out of the half. They clamped down on the Cavs starters on defense. Oubre settled in and started playing D and working around the court away from the ball. The other four guys have obviously developed some chemistry together. They find each other when they get into trouble and cover for each others gambles and mistakes on defense. They've started to execute the little things that are important to fluid team play but take a lot of time to develop.

On Burke, I thought he had a nice game again. He puts pressure on defenses with his speed and aggressive style, but he needs to learn to balance that attacking mentality with slowing it down and making sure his teammates stay involved. Can't be calling his own number so early in a shot clock in a half court possession as much as he does. I thought he played a more balanced game tonight.

If I were Brooks, I would keep McClellan, Eddie, and O'Bryant for roster spots 13, 14, and 15. I'd prefer to keep Ochefu over Eddie, but Jason Smith's presence on the roster makes it difficult to keep both O'Bryant and Ochefu. And I don't think you can go into the year with just Otto and Kelly as your only real SFs. If the choice is between O'Bryant and Ochefu, I believe O'Bryant is the better player right now and that he has outplayed Ochefu. Ochefu looks like he has more potential though. I'd be fine keeping either.

I'm still very worried about the bench. Mahinmi is our best player on that unit but he's out at least the first month of the season if not more. The defense on that unit will be a very big issue without him. Nicholson wasn't a worthy rotation player in Charlotte, largely because of his defense. Tomas & Kelly are potentially good but will they realize that potential this year? Both are still adjusting to the NBA game. Thornton is hot & cold gunner who offers little else. The rest of the roster is NBDL fodder.

[dangermouse]

Nicholson = baby Jamison?

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah I'm not as down on the bench as others. I don't quite think we're 10 deep yet, but at the very least we're solid 1-8.

Yeah we have a solid 8 man group. Although I suppose Kelly hasn't truly proven himself yet. I think he's ready to go 30 minutes a night though if need be.

Burke and Sato are more questionable right now. But I have hope that they're going to settle in over the course of the season and be valuable. I think Sato has demonstrated the basketball IQ and on-court awareness to suggest he's going to have a short learning curve for a rookie, and that the only thing likely to hold him back is strength and conditioning.

Burke is ready to play big minutes now. He's got the strength and athleticism now, for him it's all about finding the right role and adjusting his game to it. I'm hoping that will come when he logs a lot of minutes with the other guys in the second unit. There is enough quality on that group that you can consistently rotate them in together.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm still very worried about the bench. Mahinmi is our best player on that unit but he's out at least the first month of the season if not more. The defense on that unit will be a very big issue without him. Nicholson wasn't a worthy rotation player in Charlotte, largely because of his defense. Tomas & Kelly are potentially good but will they realize that potential this year? Both are still adjusting to the NBA game. Thornton is hot & cold gunner who offers little else. The rest of the roster is NBDL fodder.

If Mahinmi's back by December, then that is a lot of time for them to come together. He's a luxury bench player and most teams don't have a player as good as him at C, much less back up C. His presence should eventually fix a lot of defensive issues on the bench.

Nicholson's situation in Orlando was more about their roster being heavy on bigs than it was about Nicholson's ability. They had Gordon, Harris, and Ilyasova soaking up all of the minutes at PF and Vucevic, Frye, and Dedmond at C. Nicholson will get a much bigger opportunity here, and I think he's already showing how he can be a valuable rotation player for us. Really soft hands and he's got the best inside game on the team and he's a good FT shooter. Decent three ball for a PF/C too. And he seems to rebound pretty well. You're not going to find any complete bigs to come off the bench, so you have to figure out a way to balance out their weaknesses within the lineup. When Mahinmi gets back, they should form a nice complimentary tandem. I think Nicholson is going to take his opportunity here and run with it. I think we're going to get the four best seasons of his career and that he'll end up endearing himself to the fan base here.

We just disagree about Burke. The situation in Utah was not right for him. He's a back up PG, someone you bring in to change up the pace and tempo, not rely on to run your team. Especially not a slow half court team built around its front court. Burke's half court utility really just comes down to slashing and running simple pick and rolls, not enough to be a good starter. But that's who Sessions was for us. I expect Burke to give us more of the same, although I suspect he has more of a three ball than Sessions did. He's stronger than Sessions too.

I also think this is a PG friendly destination. Sessions was coming off terrible stints in Milwaukee and Sacramento where his numbers and value were far worse than Burke's. He was able to slip into a role here and play well again. Burke has a similar opportunity.

[payitforward]

I'm more concerned about our starters inability to hang with Cleveland's starters. To me this speak to the reality of our situation instead of getting excited about a career backup and fringe rotation player that's having an unsustainable hot streak shooting wise.

Why are you worried about that? You know damn well this franchise doesn't see themselves as competition for the Cavs. The FO is setting the bar real low...43 wins and the 7th or 8th seed will be a touted as a victory for the franchise.

43 wins is not "setting the bar... low" for this team. It would be one of the better seasons in EG history, certainly in the top 30%.

That bar is way too high; this ain't going to be a 43 win season, sorry.

[payitforward]

Nicholson's situation in Orlando was more about their roster being heavy on bigs than it was about Nicholson's ability.

Huh? You are aware that they didn't even give him his qualifying offer, right? Just let him go for nothing. You are aware that they then traded for Ibaka, right? And signed Biyombo as a FA?

I think we're going to get the four best seasons of his career and that he'll end up endearing himself to the fan base here.

We could get his 4 best seasons by far without him ever approaching being an average 4 in the NBA.

I mean... I'm glad AN had a terrific last game in preseason. But you need to take something to bring down your fever, ok? Perhaps you remember that Randy Foye once scored 29 points in a single quarter? You want to sign him? That Brandon Jennings had a 55 point game as a rookie? Etc.

We just disagree about Burke. The situation in Utah was not right for him. He's a back up PG, someone you bring in to change up the pace and tempo, not rely on to run your team. Especially not a slow half court team built around its front court. Burke's half court utility really just comes down to slashing and running simple pick and rolls, not enough to be a good starter. But that's who Sessions was for us. I expect Burke to give us more of the same, although I suspect he has more of a three ball than Sessions did. He's stronger than Sessions too.

I also think this is a PG friendly destination. Sessions was coming off terrible stints in Milwaukee and Sacramento where his numbers and value were far worse than Burke's. He was able to slip into a role here and play well again. Burke has a similar opportunity.

We do disagree. I take the fact that Burke has never been any good yet in 6000 NBA minutes as evidence that he won't be any good this year either. You, on the other hand, have got an altogether different future figured out based on the vision you had in your dream last night. There's the disagreement.

Btw, Sessions was terrific, not "terrible," w/ the Bucks in his partial season there. And, unlike Burke, he'd had many good seasons leading up to that one. Then he was awful in Sac'to. He came here and went back to the mean of his career. No "PG friendly destination" explanation (whatever that means) is required.

Sessions came here and played the way he has over his career. Burke has come here and will play the way he has over his career.

[Dat2U]

Yeah I'm not as down on the bench as others. I don't quite think we're 10 deep yet, but at the very least we're solid

Burke is ready to play big minutes now. He's got the strength and athleticism now, for him it's all about finding the right role and adjusting his game to it. I'm hoping that will come when he logs a lot of minutes with the other guys in the second unit. There is enough quality on that group that you can consistently rotate them in together.

I don't know where this unfounded optimism comes from. Or how this unseen strength & athleticism that Burke has never displayed can be assumed. He's probably ready to play big minutes... overseas in Europe. The right role in the NBA is firmly planted on the bench.

I don't understand how you ignore his defense considering our defensive efficiency absolutely hemorrhages when he's been on the court thus far in preseason... which is right in line with his experience with the Jazz. He wouldn't have fallen out of the Jazz' rotation had he managed to at least play passable defense... despite the inconsistent shooting stroke & inability to get into paint and do anything if he got there. The guy your touting is the same guy that got benched for Raul Neto & Shelvin Mack. So you propping him up as an useful asset is almost laughable.