EwingSweatsALot wrote:PREDICTION
39-43 (10th in the East)
I don't expect us to get near the combined production of Kemba, Batum, and Marv that we got last year. I don't know if those years are sustainable. Marv's being the least likely after how much of an anomaly his was. Can Kemba sustain his shooting efficiency? Seems unlikely with how flatlined it had been over his career. i don't expect it to drop to what it was, but I don't think we can expect last year.
We get MKG back which is obviously a huge plus. Before last year he was by far our best value stats player. He led the teams in plus minus and win % and all that. Also, when he was in the lineup for those 7 games we were winning at an extraordinary rate. How is the shot? not good in the preseason. Small sample size though. The question is like always, how much do we get out of him? If we get 70 games out of him then that is a border line miracle.
My biggest concern is the bench. Last year we had the best bench per 48 minutes. Our bench was +12.2 points/48 compared to our opponents. The best in the league. We had depth last year. We now replace Lin, Lee, and Al with Sessions, Belinelli and Hibbert. None of those are better than what we lost. Al and Hibbert might be the equivalent, just completely opposite contributions. We are a damn wing injury away from having to start Lamb or Belinelli. That freaks me out. Our bench kept ourselves in a lot of games last year. We knew when Kemba and Batum were out that we wouldn't have to worry about digging ourselves in a hole. We can't be so certain about that this year.
In the end i worry about our depth and our injuries and that's where I come mainly with the 39 wins number. We are going to have injuries. We are starting with injuries already. And if one happens to come from Kemba or Batum or MKG for a long period of time then our starters get weaker and our bench does too. We aren't as talented as we were last year. Our offense won't be a top 10 offense again. The east has gotten better. There are going to be about 5-7 teams(us included in that 38-43 wins). And one of our big strengths is now one of our biggest weaknesses.
Well you have to take into account that Lee is basically going to be replaced by mkg so barring injuries that is a upgrade to the bench to me, just solely by having a viable starter and now the Lee "replacement" belli will come off the bench.
Hibbert will have a bit of renaissance with Clifford and become a solid rim protector wether starting or coming off the bench.
Lin on the other hand does worry me. He was a solid defensive player that we relied on to score and create opportunities for others. Lin really Excelled with drives to the basket and being able to finish or draw the foul, if you recall his jumper was off for a majority of the season. Sessions is a very similar scorer to Lin, although Lin is obviously the much better passer and defensive player.
I think it comes down too seeing the same production from the core guys like you stated, and hopefully a healthy mkg year. If we can get that I don't see bench depth derailing the season.
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