Andrew Wiggins ceiling

[eagereyez]

If you guys are saying Wiggins doesn't have the elite handles/vision/passing ability, how about Dominique Wilkins as a comparison? Nique was strictly a volume scorer, basically. I mean - a guy who averages 21 ppg in his second season at age 20/21 like Wiggins did, certainly seems to be on a way to become a high volume scorer later in his career.

I was also thinking of Nique as a comparison. Both are worse defenders than you'd think considering their athleticism. Both high volume scorers, do most of their damage in the paint, not super efficient, etc.

[tsherkin]

If you guys are saying Wiggins doesn't have the elite handles/vision/passing ability, how about Dominique Wilkins as a comparison? Nique was strictly a volume scorer, basically. I mean - a guy who averages 21 ppg in his second season at age 20/21 like Wiggins did, certainly seems to be on a way to become a high volume scorer later in his career.

Certainly a thought. Not as good at protecting the ball, but he's young yet and the style fit is a little closer for sure.

[2klegend]

I had high hope for him before he was draft. Let say I was extremely disappointed with his progression. He doesn't seem to understand the game so I'm downgrading his potential from superstar to all-star right now. His handle is still very flimsy. That's an area I will be watching closely to see if he can reach his full potential.

[Johnny Firpo]

His ceiling is DeMar DeRozan that plays great D. And that's a fantastic 2nd option.

With a better three ball though, which is huge in today's NBA. Otherwise I don't hate this comparison, but he is a much more talented long bomber than DeRozan, who will likely never have a respectable three point shot.

[Rapcity_11]

His ceiling is DeMar DeRozan that plays great D. And that's a fantastic 2nd option.

With a better three ball though, which is huge in today's NBA. Otherwise I don't hate this comparison, but he is a much more talented long bomber than DeRozan, who will likely never have a respectable three point shot.

Since he's already as efficient as DD that seems highly pessimistic.

[Johnny Firpo]

Since he's already as efficient as DD that seems highly pessimistic.

Could be... I was a huge Wiggins advocate in his first year, but the truth is, he does seem to have limiations that would stop him from reaching stardom, mainly his handles, and basketball IQ. He is still very young though, so... Also, I guess if you rate Paul George as a superstar (I do not), then you have to give him a ceiling like that, at least, and yeah, George is clearly better than DeRozan. We'll see, Wiggins seemed to play very well in his first game from what I saw.

[SlowPaced]

His ceiling is DeMar DeRozan that plays great D. And that's a fantastic 2nd option.

With a better three ball though, which is huge in today's NBA. Otherwise I don't hate this comparison, but he is a much more talented long bomber than DeRozan, who will likely never have a respectable three point shot.

Since he's already as efficient as DD that seems highly pessimistic.

He could end up being more efficient than DeRozan due to a better outside shot, but the limitation of handles and playmaking are reminiscent of DeRozan. I see Wiggins at 24 PPG on %55-56 TS and 3.5 APG, roughly. His defensive ceiling is All-Defensive level, dunno if he gets there though.

[Rapcity_11]

With a better three ball though, which is huge in today's NBA. Otherwise I don't hate this comparison, but he is a much more talented long bomber than DeRozan, who will likely never have a respectable three point shot.

Since he's already as efficient as DD that seems highly pessimistic.

He could end up being more efficient than DeRozan due to a better outside shot, but the limitation of handles and playmaking are reminiscent of DeRozan. I see Wiggins as a 24 PPG scorer on about %54 TS, about 3.5 APG. His defensive ceiling is All-Defensive level, dunno if he gets there though.

He was a 21 PPG scorer on 54% TS in his 2nd year..so again that seems highly pessimistic.

[SlowPaced]

Since he's already as efficient as DD that seems highly pessimistic.

He could end up being more efficient than DeRozan due to a better outside shot, but the limitation of handles and playmaking are reminiscent of DeRozan. I see Wiggins as a 24 PPG scorer on about %54 TS, about 3.5 APG. His defensive ceiling is All-Defensive level, dunno if he gets there though.

He was a 21 PPG scorer on 54% TS in his 2nd year..so again that seems highly pessimistic.

I upped the TS to %55-56 on an edit.

I like Wiggins a lot and want him to be better than my expectations but I haven't seen it yet.

[SlowPaced]

Since he's already as efficient as DD that seems highly pessimistic.

Could be... I was a huge Wiggins advocate in his first year, but the truth is, he does seem to have limiations that would stop him from reaching stardom, mainly his handles, and basketball IQ. He is still very young though, so... Also, I guess if you rate Paul George as a superstar (I do not), then you have to give him a ceiling like that, at least, and yeah, George is clearly better than DeRozan. We'll see, Wiggins seemed to play very well in his first game from what I saw.

DeMar DeRozan with better handles, playmaking and great defense isn't too far from Paul George anyway. That's the ceiling I gave him.

[Pelly24]

Wiggins won't get to Vince Carter level. VC was much less awkward with the ball than Wiggins. He wasn't as quick, but he had a much better handle and was able to slither in between defenses in a way Wiggins could never dream of. Wiggins looks extremely stiff when he drives the ball to the rim, and he can't move well laterally in the lane without using his spin move. VC was also a better shooter than Wiggins has shown himself to be so far In short, Wiggins isn't a guard, and VC is. Wiggins uses blunt force, where as VC uses graceful skill

[Winsome Gerbil]

If you guys are saying Wiggins doesn't have the elite handles/vision/passing ability, how about Dominique Wilkins as a comparison? Nique was strictly a volume scorer, basically. I mean - a guy who averages 21 ppg in his second season at age 20/21 like Wiggins did, certainly seems to be on a way to become a high volume scorer later in his career.

Nique was a different level cat. Noveau people love to denigrate him, but he was a big guy who could overwhelm you in the post, hit the glass, and jump out of the gym altogether. He was physically overwhelming.

Wiggins is quick, but he has looked more like a SG statistically. His numbers have looked more like Rip Hamilton than Dominque Wilkins. But who knows, maybe Thibs can add some bark and get him to stick his nose in there more often.

[tsherkin]

Noveau people love to denigrate him,

This is an unnecessary comment, Winsome. Even in his own era, there were critics. He was everything that Jordan wasn't as an offensive player, and people took shots at his defense all the time. That's not news for now... There's a reason he wasn't on the 50 Greatest list in 1996... and that was 20 years ago. "Nouveau" has nothing to do with it, and is an entirely unnecessary stab at various posters.

but he was a big guy who could overwhelm you in the post, hit the glass, and jump out of the gym altogether. He was physically overwhelming.

Wing power is certainly something he had in abundance. He had some of the most powerful rim-rattlers in-game that I've seen from guys who weren't big men, and he certainly took contact well.

Wiggins is quick, but he has looked more like a SG statistically. His numbers have looked more like Rip Hamilton than Dominque Wilkins. But who knows, maybe Thibs can add some bark and get him to stick his nose in there more often.

Wiggins has been posting. Last year, at 22.2%, Melo was the leader in non-big post-ups by percentage of possessions. Wiggins was at 12.0%. That's more than Derozan (8.5%), Lebron (10.6%), Durant (8.1%), Butler (5.7%), Draymond (8.7%), Harden (4.8%), George (3.4%), Deandre Jordan (7.2%), Joe Johnson (10.7%), Dwyane Wade (10.5%), Chris Bosh (8.6%), Giannis (8.1%), Miles Plumlee (12.3%), Nerlens (10.2%), Rudy Gay (10.5%)....

Kobe was at 13.6%... I could go on.

TL;DR, Wiggins posted up a LOT compared to other perimeter players.

[Zeitgeister]

I think Wiggins will be a bit better version of Demar Derozan with less passing but more defense. He'll likely be a more consistent scorer considering that he's shown more in that area earlier in his career than Derozan did. I think Wiggins will maintain a 22-24ppg 54-56 TS% for several years unless he magically gets a huge uptick in 3 point efficiency, I'm not sure his efficiency takes any huge jumps . So, depending on the league situation, he will probably be an All-Star a few times over the course of his career. So we're talking about a borderline star player, IMO.

[Quotatious]

Nique was a different level cat. Noveau people love to denigrate him, but he was a big guy who could overwhelm you in the post, hit the glass, and jump out of the gym altogether. He was physically overwhelming.

Wiggins is quick, but he has looked more like a SG statistically. His numbers have looked more like Rip Hamilton than Dominque Wilkins. But who knows, maybe Thibs can add some bark and get him to stick his nose in there more often.

I'm not comparing Wiggins at age 21 to prime Wilkins. I'm saying prime Wiggins might get to prime WIlkins level, at age 25-30 or thereabouts, you know. Look where Nique was at Andrew's current age - he was still playing college ball at Georgia. Wilkins in his first season averaged 17.5 ppg on 52.4% TS, 21.6 on 53.1% in his second season. Wiggins averaged 16.9 on 51.7% as a rookie and 20.7 on 54.3% in his second season. These are similar numbers, and if you take age into account, the fact that Nique was 3 years older, had more of a grown man's body, it's even closer, and perhaps favors WIggins.

[ronnymac2]

Why doesn't Wiggins grab rebounds?

[tsherkin]

With a better three ball though, which is huge in today's NBA. Otherwise I don't hate this comparison, but he is a much more talented long bomber than DeRozan, who will likely never have a respectable three point shot.

Food for thought, but Derozan has shot 38%+ from the corner 3 spots in three straight seasons now, and is coming off of a season shooting 33.8% from 3, coincidentally since he started taking 40%+ of his 3PA from the corners... Wiggins has peaked at 31.0% 3P so far. He's got some streak shooting in him for sure, but I think he's actually fairly similar to Derozan as a 3pt shooter: crap above the break, and as he eventually works the corner 3 more into his MO, he'll see that rise in percentages and overall efficacy. Wiggins is actually a noticeably less-competent perimeter shooter than Derozan in general. It's not just the 3, he's been pretty horrible from 16+ feet in general, and nothing special from 10-15 either. Derozan was much better from 3-15 feet from basically the word 'go,' though he too had to develop some from 16+ feet and he still isn't consistent or impressive there (and has actually been crap the past two seasons from 16-23).

IOW, no, he really isn't "a much more talented long bomber than Derozan." He's had some hot months, but so has DD, and the net results aren't that impressive at all. The really encouraging thing is how much he's taking to the post early, where he's quite good, and his slashing game.

[Johnny Firpo]

Food for thought, but Derozan has shot 38%+ from the corner 3 spots in three straight seasons now, and is coming off of a season shooting 33.8% from 3, coincidentally since he started taking 40%+ of his 3PA from the corners... Wiggins has peaked at 31.0% 3P so far. He's got some streak shooting in him for sure, but I think he's actually fairly similar to Derozan as a 3pt shooter: crap above the break, and as he eventually works the corner 3 more into his MO, he'll see that rise in percentages and overall efficacy. Wiggins is actually a noticeably less-competent perimeter shooter than Derozan in general. It's not just the 3, he's been pretty horrible from 16+ feet in general, and nothing special from 10-15 either. Derozan was much better from 3-15 feet from basically the word 'go,' though he too had to develop some from 16+ feet and he still isn't consistent or impressive there (and has actually been crap the past two seasons from 16-23).

IOW, no, he really isn't "a much more talented long bomber than Derozan." He's had some hot months, but so has DD, and the net results aren't that impressive at all. The really encouraging thing is how much he's taking to the post early, where he's quite good, and his slashing game.

I don't know, I guess I like Wiggins' form and footwork better, and I expect him to become a better shooter with time, even though this is not the case now.

[tsherkin]

I don't know, I guess I like Wiggins' form and footwork better, and I expect him to become a better shooter with time, even though this is not the case now.

I don't, at all. I expect him to have a fairly similar level of performance. I expect him to be a better overall scorer, though. I'm wondering if he'll do what DD is doing now and start to fitfully learn about playmaking, though, because he'll have much less opportunity to do that in Minny with everyone else who handles and such.

[Zeitgeister]

Why doesn't Wiggins grab rebounds?

It's some combination of laziness, poor basketball awareness, bad hands (one of his biggest weaknesses), gets bodied by small forwards a lot. He actually gets offensive rebounds at a reasonable level because he's got such an elite second jump on his own misses but he's just often looking around when the Wolves need a defensive rebound. It's not like it's a coaching decision or something either because he's been called out about it in the past.

I don't think Wiggins improved one bit from his rookie year to his second year. I mean he added a nice Eurostep for finishing around the rim but statistically he was very much the same as he was for most of his rookie year. You remove the first 25 games of his rookie year and his box score stats look surprisingly identical to his second year.