Andrew Wiggins ceiling

[HeartBreakKid]

One thing I wonder is the impact of his scoring. Let's say Wiggins does put up decent boxscore numbers, would it translate to the playoffs?

His elite ability to draw fouls and being a very good finisher in the paint should make him a pretty resilient scorer, so yeah, I think he would be fine in the playoffs.

But his lack of handles and pull up J would mitigate that heavily, playoff basketball is not as open as regular season basketball. His iso game might not get good enough where he can over come legitimate half court defense. Clyde Drexler's scoring efficiency dipped a lot in the playoffs for example, as did several other athletes like Malone, Pippen, Westbrook, McGrady (I think, might be off about him).

[tsherkin]

Getting to the line. He already posted 21 ppg on 54.5% TS last season when he was just 20 years old. And he attempted 7 free throws a game. For comparison the list of guys 20 or younger who shot at least 7 FTA/g includes just seven names: LeBron, KD, Carmelo, Dantley, Shaq, Dwight, and John Drew. Outside of Drew, the worst scorers on that list are Dwight (who gave you 23 ppg on 61.5% TS at his peak) and Carmelo (29 ppg on 56% TS).

I don't think it's unreasonable for him to bump that point total up 5 points and his efficiency 4.5% (which I'm not denying is significant) by the time he hits his peak 5 or so years from now.

Certainly a reasonable thought process. Just curious to the particulars. 54.3% TS as a second-year guy on decent usage is interesting, and he's both quite good at getting to the line, and as you say, a talented post-up player. One of the most prolific post wings in the league, actually. Very interesting talent to watch, and third year is a big year.

[Quotatious]

But his lack of handles and pull up J would mitigate that heavily, playoff basketball is not as open as regular season basketball. His iso game might not get good enough where he can over come legitimate half court defense. Clyde Drexler's scoring efficiency dipped a lot in the playoffs for example, as did several other athletes like Malone, Pippen, Westbrook, McGrady (I think, might be off about him).

Honestly, it's a difficult discussion to have right now because he's still so young and as we saw with Kawhi Leonard, shooting and ball-handling can be developed if a guy has really strong work ethic. Wiggins has had a lot more freedom than Leonard in his first two seasons in those areas, he can develop through trial and error, because the Wolves have a lot of time to learn, there's no rush for them to become successful very quickly, while Kawhi had considerably less freedom and more pressure to consistently perform well right from the beginning of his pro career, because the team he joined as a rookie was already a contender that just needed one piece in the puzzle, the starting small forward, and they were a much older team.

I think that Wiggins would definitely struggle in the playoffs the first year, if the Wolves hypothetically make it to the playoffs this season. He's clearly not ready to win now, he's the definition of a raw talent, a work in progress. He may need 2 or 3 years after that to really enter his prime, but as long as he won't have major injuries hampering his development, he'll become a real star in a few years. It's rare to see a guy with the kind of athleticism he has, averaging 21 ppg on decent efficiency at age 20/21. He's been very durable so far, top 10 in minutes played in both of his first two seasons (even second as a rookie, only 12 total minutes behind Harden who was the league leader), playing 163 of 164 possible games. That's the reason I like his chances of becoming a star in a few years. The combination of great athleticism, productivity at very young age, and durability, bodes well.

[Goudelock]

As someone who hasn't seen a lot of the Wolves this season; how is Wiggins' handle? Has it improved, or is it still mediocre? Whenever I watched him last year, that seemed to be the biggest thing that was holding him back.

[Colbinii]

As someone who hasn't seen a lot of the Wolves this season; how is Wiggins' handle? Has it improved, or is it still mediocre? Whenever I watched him last year, that seemed to be the biggest thing that was holding him back.

Mediocre could be overselling him, and I love Wiggins.

[HeartBreakKid]

As someone who hasn't seen a lot of the Wolves this season; how is Wiggins' handle? Has it improved, or is it still mediocre? Whenever I watched him last year, that seemed to be the biggest thing that was holding him back.

It's still really limited, he has to rely on his burst more so than his handling. He usually defaults to a step back or a spin move when ever a defender keeps up with him, he can't really keep his dribble.

[vagelis]

Wiggins is a great talent and he becomes a great player.
I think he can average 25ppg easily if he gets the ball more.
And I mean he can do it this year not in 2-3 years.
He has worked a lot his handles in the offseason and I think this is obvious in the first games.
In the last game against Sacramento his drives were scarely good.
My opinion is that he is so much underrated. I think his floor is Demar Derozan. I expect him to prove this year that he is already there.
As for his ceiling I think it is much higher than Derozan if he continues to improve his game.

Watch on YouTube

[Colbinii]

Wiggins is a great talent and he becomes a great player.
I think he can average 25ppg easily if he gets the ball more.
And I mean he can do it this year not in 2-3 years.

Sure. Nobody in this thread is questioning his ability to score the rock. The question remains can he become more than a 25/4/3 player.

He has worked a lot his handles in the offseason and I think this is obvious in the first games.

Not really. All of his drives came against a switch with a big man on him or a bad rotation. He crossed DMC over and the rest of the drives were just a race to the hoop, nothing really impressive or highlighting his "improved handle", as you put it.

In the last game against Sacramento his drives were scarely good.

Not really. Maybe if they were on halloween, but like I said, we need to see him consistently beat SG/SF from the wing, not Centers who switched.

My opinion is that he is so much underrated. I think his floor is Demar Derozan. I expect him to prove this year that he is already there.
As for his ceiling I think it is much higher than Derozan if he continues to improve his game.

I don't think he as at DD level yet. Have you seen what DD has done so far this season? He took another step from last year.

[vagelis]

You say that Wiggins handles are not good enough because he didn't beat sg/sf in 1vs1 situation.
But does Derozan has the ability to do this? I think no. I also think that many wing players that are considered better than Wiggins they have not the talent or the athleticism that Wiggins has.
Buttler, Derozan, Paul George and others have worked hard to become the players that they are now. In their first seasons they were mediocre rookies and it took them 3-4 years to score above 20ppg.
Wiggins is something else. He came to the league as the best prospect, he won the ROY, he scored 21ppg in his second season and he seems to take another step this year.
I cannot compare Wiggins with these players.
His athleticism is 1-2 levels better and that matters.
Jordan was what he was because of his athleticism.
Lebron is what he is because of his athleticism.
Wiggins may not reach this level but he has some similarities. I want to watch him this year in order to have a better opinion about him but please do not compare him with Rudy Gay and Iguodala.

[Zeitgeister]

Athleticism is just one attribute that impacts a player's ceiling. Too often people put more emphasis on it than they probably should. Skills, basketball IQ, work ethic, all of those play a huge role in how good someone ends up being. Wiggins is an elite athlete but he seems to be lacking in the skills and basketball IQ department, possibly work ethic too but we don't really know that for sure.

Though even when considering his athleticism, he doesn't get nearly as much out of it as he could. He should be a much better rebounder, and a much better team defender but he just isn't. He's too laid back or not smart enough to know how to influence the game in ways that don't involve him scoring with the ball or defending his man. He also has tunnel vision when he's driving with the ball and rarely looks for teammates to pass to.

[vagelis]

He averages 24/4/2 so far. I think it is pretty good for a 21 yo player

[Ron Swanson]

I think McGrady as a scorer is fair, but as an overall offensive player I'd say no. T-Mac was a really underrated playmaker (career 5 AST per 36, 2/1 AST/TO ratio). Wiggins looks great scoring the basketball, but he's shooting 60+ percent from 3PT range, yet is only sporting a 57% TS. I mean, he isn't going to shoot 63% on the year from 3. 40%? Certainly a possibility, but his efficiency is going to inevitably regress.

He's going to need to be able to do something besides score at average to slightly above average efficiency to ever be considered a star. I still think he will because of his age and physical tools, but it is a bit concerning how bad of a defender he's been thus far considering that was supposed to be his calling card and something that he'd bring immediately to the pros. The one thing I've been most impressed with is his ability to get to the line.

[vagelis]

What about now? What do you think is Wiggins ceiling?
Is it Rudy Gay, Iguodala or James Possey(this was from a brillant article http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/andrew-wiggins-lebron-james/)?

[Zeitgeister]

What about now? What do you think is Wiggins ceiling?
Is it Rudy Gay, Iguodala or James Possey(this was from a brillant article http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/andrew-wiggins-lebron-james/)?

There's a huge difference between ceiling and what one might call the most likely outcome. I don't think I've ever seen anyone say that Rudy Gay is Wiggins' ceiling, rather his most likely outcome, which by the way, I consider to be a FAR more worthwhile discussion than talking about ceiling because people rarely reach their ceiling. I think he'll be better than that if his shooting is real. Wiggins has not progressed in any of the other areas of the game at all since his rookie season though. I understand, he's very young but you're asking people what they think his ceiling is so we have to go by the information that we have.

I also think you're seriously underrating Iguodala. Iggy is one of the best wing defenders in the past 10 years, he's a very good playmaker and has been a capable scorer. I'm not sure that Wiggins surpasses him. It will fundamentally come down to how much upside you see in Wiggins as a scorer.

As for the James Posey comp, yeah it looks ridiculous but when that article was written, it was in the first 25 games of Wiggins career and he was absolutely horrible during that time. He was averaging under 12 ppg on really poor efficiency while averaging 3.5 rpg and 1 apg.

[Quotatious]

Man, Wiggins' ability to draw fouls is just phenomenal, for his age it's once-in-a-generation type of ability in this regard. I know the Lakers are not a great team, but you can't tell me that a guy who puts up 47 points with 20+ FTA against ANYBODY at age 21, doesn't have superstar ceiling. His all-around game is very much work-in-progress, but he's already a special scorer.

[vagelis]

There's a huge difference between ceiling and what one might call the most likely outcome. I don't think I've ever seen anyone say that Rudy Gay is Wiggins' ceiling, rather his most likely outcome, which by the way, I consider to be a FAR more worthwhile discussion than talking about ceiling because people rarely reach their ceiling. I think he'll be better than that if his shooting is real. Wiggins has not progressed in any of the other areas of the game at all since his rookie season though. I understand, he's very young but you're asking people what they think his ceiling is so we have to go by the information that we have.

I also think you're seriously underrating Iguodala. Iggy is one of the best wing defenders in the past 10 years, he's a very good playmaker and has been a capable scorer. I'm not sure that Wiggins surpasses him. It will fundamentally come down to how much upside you see in Wiggins as a scorer.

As for the James Posey comp, yeah it looks ridiculous but when that article was written, it was in the first 25 games of Wiggins career and he was absolutely horrible during that time. He was averaging under 12 ppg on really poor efficiency while averaging 3.5 rpg and 1 apg.

Iguodala is a pretty good player but he was never a star.
Yes I see a lot of upside in Wiggins

[Prez]

Where is this Iggy comparison coming from? Some weird stat analysis I'm assuming? Because he and Wiggins are completely different players, they're not even remotely alike besides both being wings.

[Quotatious]

Iguodala is a pretty good player bad he was never a star.

He was a star, he was just underrated because he spent most of his best years on mediocre/bad Sixers teams. From 2007 to 2010, he averaged 18.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals on 55% TS, 18.3 PER, +3.6 BPM, with very good defense and great stamina/durability (he averaged 39.6 minutes per game, and played all 82 games in three consecutive seasons, plus 76 in the fourth season). He was probably the closest thing to Scottie Pippen that we've seen, like a poor man's Pippen. He wasn't a huge scorer (but still a good one), so many people think he was not a star, but that's misleading. His all-around game was terrific. He didn't get much credit because his teams weren't good (which wasn't his fault, those teams didn't have a lot of talent or great coaching). Iguodala from 2007 to 2010 could've been a very good second option after an elite #1 scorer like Kobe or Wade. Much like Elton Brand for most of his career in Chicago/LA. Excellent player stuck in a bad team situation.

Anyway...

Yes I see a lot of upside in Wiggins

I certainly do, too. I agree with Milbuck that Wiggins and Iguodala are totally different players, though. Wiggins has a lot more in common with guys like Vince Carter and DeMar DeRozan, than he does with Iguodala. He's going to be a great scorer, first and foremost, not an all-around stat-sheet stuffing machine like Iguodala. I think Wiggins' ceiling is clearly higher than Iguodala's.

[vagelis]

I watch him since he was 16 and I was impressed from the first second.
I have not ever seen all these athletic tools combined in a player of his height.

[tsherkin]

Man, Wiggins' ability to draw fouls is just phenomenal, for his age it's once-in-a-generation type of ability in this regard. I know the Lakers are not a great team, but you can't tell me that a guy who puts up 47 points with 20+ FTA against ANYBODY at age 21, doesn't have superstar ceiling. His all-around game is very much work-in-progress, but he's already a special scorer.

Mmmm. Single game, weak defensive team. Wonderful performance. I don't think a single game really speaks to the breadth of potential you're discussing here. Wiggins IS very good at drawing fouls, this we already knew. He's been at or above .400 in both of his previous seasons. I think "once in a generation" is extreme hyperbole, however, if only because he's not doing anything we haven't seen before in the past dozen years or so. Yes, he's young, but I mean, it was just in 2009-10 when Harden hit the league as a 20 year-old at .415 FTr, and then .501 just the next season at age 21. Yes, not in a primary scoring role because he was still on OKC, but he hasn't been under .518 FTr since his second season. Even after the Lakers game, Wiggins isn't even at .490 yet, and it was a great performance... But yeah, "once a generation" sort of ignores Durant, Harden, Derozan, Westbrook and Melo, actually, let alone some of the bigs who've done it (Love, Amare, Bosh)... and all of that is just since the 04-05 season.

Just to clarify, that's 20+ PPG, 60+ GP and .450+ FTr for players 22 and under in their 1st through 3rd season (to account for the age angle). The list broadens out considerably as you drop that FTr, and likewise the PPG. I tightened that down pretty carefully and significantly and Wiggins still isn't generational in that regard, even ignoring the fact that you're operating literally on the basis of a single game.

So no, it's pretty clear that this isn't a once-in-a-generation anything at all, since it's been done several times in the past dozen years and Wiggins hasn't even done it over the balance of the season yet. Prior to this game, he was posting a .404 FTr, which is completely without the meat for a generational assignment, so we're basically talking about a single-game sample being used to justify a description of a generational attribute, which really isn't tenable.

Now, I've been looking at seasonal performances so that we could operate with a legitimate sample. Backing up to the single game of 40+ points with 22+ FTA at 21 or younger in the player's first through third seasons, Wiggins, James, Durant and Blake Griffin have done that just since 2004-05.

Change the criteria to go all the way to < 23 but keep the seasonal requirement (1st through 3rd season) and drop it to 20 FTA, and we have a different story. Now you add John Wall, Ramon Sessions, and Derrick Rose. Take it to the 3pt era and we add Kobe, McGrady, and Shaq.

It's pretty rare as a single game feat. Many of those guys became very high-end offensive players. 4 of them scored 47 points: Wiggins, Kobe, James... and John Wall.

Impressive, yes, but we already know that his ability to draw fouls isn't really generational, it's been directly shown otherwise. What we have here is a fantastic single-game performance from a third-year player who knows how to take advantage of transition, offensive rebounding and switches... and who is also improving in his comfort level attacking the rim. But he has a LOOOOOOOOOOONG way to go before he establishes himself as a generational player ITO drawing fouls, especially since the company he keeps in terms of who has managed this single-game feat is actually NOT representative entirely of players who are fantastic at drawing fouls. Rose, for example, has always kind of blown at drawing fouls and Sessions was a low-scoring player his whole career. Wall had three lower-volume scoring seasons over his first three years and is working on his fourth consecutive season of .341 FTr or less.



Wiggins is good. He's improving. Last year, only 6 guys averaged 20+ ppg with .400+ FTr, and Wiggins was one of them, with Cousins, Derozan, Butler, Lowry and Harden. He's clearly up there in terms of his ability to draw fouls, but let's not let a single game color our view of the guy. It's a marvelous game, but historically, single games have meant only so much. It's Tony Delk all over again, you know what I mean? Not that Wiggins is a Delk-level player, I just mean that drawing conclusions from single-game performances isn't usually a good move.