Political Roundtable Part XI

[AFM]

It's awfully quiet in here right now...

Sent from my XT1575 using RealGM mobile app

We are all watching history happen

Can't Barrage the Farage
And Can't Stump The Trump

[Benjammin]

Bueller? Bueller?

Sent from my XT1650 using RealGM mobile app

[Induveca]

It's awfully quiet in here right now...

Sent from my XT1575 using RealGM mobile app

NY Times has him at 79% chance to win......using live data.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

He started off at 24% this evening. Bizarre, certainly speaks to questionable polling during the election as accused. Still early though.

[pineappleheadindc]

I type this in real time. If you guys are bored, drop by the Washington Post boards where I''m on the discussion board.

Best comment so far (not mine): The razor-thin closeness of this election pretty much proves that if either party had run a less repulsive candidate, they'd be running away with it.

I think Trump has a good path. Bernie may have done better. If Clinton comes back, Bush, Kasich, Cruze, etc would have beat her.

Anyway, I'm on the message board for the main news story at the top of the wp.com page. Come join me.

[closg00]

AU Professor Rickman (The Keys to the Presidency) predicted a Trump victory, I was hoping he was wrong.
The entire world will be doing a big WTF.

[Induveca]

AU Professor Rickman (The Keys to the Presidency) predicted a Trump victory, I was hoping he was wrong.
The entire world will be doing a big WTF.

His rallies were too massive for the polls to be correct. Way too many Clinton scandals.

Still not over, but the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. That being said, he's not ideal but I'd take him anytime over her scandals.

[AFM]

AU Professor Rickman (The Keys to the Presidency) predicted a Trump victory, I was hoping he was wrong.
The entire world will be doing a big WTF.

I predicted a trump victory, not to toot my own horn.

I mean, he could still lose obviously.

But the parallels to this election and brexit were obvious.

[montestewart]

AU Professor Rickman (The Keys to the Presidency) predicted a Trump victory, I was hoping he was wrong.
The entire world will be doing a big WTF.

His rallies were too massive for the polls to be correct. Way too many Clinton scandals.

Still not over, but the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. That being said, he's not ideal but I'd take him anytime over her scandals.

Four years ago, media outlets and polling models widely predicted an Obama loss or a narrow victory rather than the much more decisive Obama victory that took place. This is the second election in a row where the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. Breaking a 200+ year streak of honesty.

[AFM]

AU Professor Rickman (The Keys to the Presidency) predicted a Trump victory, I was hoping he was wrong.
The entire world will be doing a big WTF.

His rallies were too massive for the polls to be correct. Way too many Clinton scandals.

Still not over, but the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. That being said, he's not ideal but I'd take him anytime over her scandals.

Four years ago, media outlets and polling models widely predicted an Obama loss or a narrow victory rather than the much more decisive Obama victory that took place. This is the second election in a row where the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. Breaking a 200+ year streak of honesty.

Have you read the Wikileaks emails from Podesta, telling the polling companies to practice "over sampling" aka sampling more democrats than what's representative of the county. It's how Hillary had that 12 percent lead a week ago. The polls were BS. They polled way too many democrats.

[AFM]

His rallies were too massive for the polls to be correct. Way too many Clinton scandals.

Still not over, but the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. That being said, he's not ideal but I'd take him anytime over her scandals.

Four years ago, media outlets and polling models widely predicted an Obama loss or a narrow victory rather than the much more decisive Obama victory that took place. This is the second election in a row where the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. Breaking a 200+ year streak of honesty.

Have you read the Wikileaks emails from Podesta, telling the polling companies to practice "over sampling" aka sampling more democrats than what's representative of the county. It's how Hillary had that 12 percent lead a week ago. The polls were BS. They polled way too many democrats.

Same thing happened in Brexit. The morning of the vote, they published a poll where the Brexiteers were down by 10%. They won by 4%. So they were off by 14% by a few hours? Or were they intentionally wrong?

[JWizmentality]

Burn it all down woooo.

Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk

[Induveca]

Four years ago, media outlets and polling models widely predicted an Obama loss or a narrow victory rather than the much more decisive Obama victory that took place. This is the second election in a row where the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. Breaking a 200+ year streak of honesty.

Have you read the Wikileaks emails from Podesta, telling the polling companies to practice "over sampling" aka sampling more democrats than what's representative of the county. It's how Hillary had that 12 percent lead a week ago. The polls were BS. They polled way too many democrats.

Same thing happened in Brexit. The morning of the vote, they published a poll where the Brexiteers were down by 10%. They won by 4%. So they were off by 14% by a few hours? Or were they intentionally wrong?

The Michigan Sanders primary returns/Wikileaks showed he got swindled completely by the DNC. Those 3.5-4% votes for Gary Johnson lost the democrats the election.

Clinton's corruption/scandals/criminal acts lost the democrats this election. Wikileaks, Project Veritas and the very active social media activists made this happen.

Still not over but Sanders/Biden or even Warren would have won this election easily.

[Wizardspride]

Angry white voters get thier revenge.


So be it.

[JWizmentality]

My only concern now is this country will be divided for the foreseeable future.

Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk

[closg00]

Angry white voters get thier revenge.


So be it.

That's pretty-much it

[Induveca]

Trump wins Wisconsin. Wow.

[Wizardspride]

Hillary is apparently going to lose this election while having a sitting President that is at 56%.

Think about that...

[Induveca]

Hillary is apparently going to lose this election while having a sitting President that is at 56%.

Think about that...

Democrats had their heads in the sand on this one. The corruption in DC is out of control. If you had read the Wikileaks she was ALWAYS the candidate.

Sanders, Biden or Warren would have beaten Trump handily. The mainstream media colluded with the Clinton campaign with planted questions, videos etc etc. Of course the polls were biased.

[montestewart]

Four years ago, media outlets and polling models widely predicted an Obama loss or a narrow victory rather than the much more decisive Obama victory that took place. This is the second election in a row where the mainstream media purposefully deceived their customers. Breaking a 200+ year streak of honesty.

Have you read the Wikileaks emails from Podesta, telling the polling companies to practice "over sampling" aka sampling more democrats than what's representative of the county. It's how Hillary had that 12 percent lead a week ago. The polls were BS. They polled way too many democrats.

Same thing happened in Brexit. The morning of the vote, they published a poll where the Brexiteers were down by 10%. They won by 4%. So they were off by 14% by a few hours? Or were they intentionally wrong?

I know this was covered before, but oversampling is a standard polling practice used capture data from subsets that would otherwise be too negligibly represented in a poll sample to get reliable results. The oversampling is weighted to offset an otherwise disproportionate result. Whether it's done accurately is another story, but it's no secret at all. PEW explains it on their website (search for "oversampling" on the page).
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/

Partisans on both sides have been widely ignoring comments from pollsters themselves during this cycle regarding the new landscape for polling. The former primary method for compiling data was calling on a landline, and as years passed, younger voters skewed away from landlines, and now only a minority of voters even have a landline, calling cell phones is more expensive and labor intensive, and many people screen their calls on landlines or cell phones. Pollsters want to sell their polls, but they've been tacitly admitting less confidence in them than in the past.

Without something else, that Podesta email is no more incriminating than kill in "kill the lights." The reason people jump to the conclusion of conspiracy and collusion for every little thing is that it provides a sense of order in the face of the alternative, that the world is chaotic and people aren't as competent and caring as we would like. So, EG must have damning pictures of Terd, rather than Terd is just so lame.

[montestewart]

My only concern now is this country will be divided for the foreseeable future.

Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk

I kind of figured that would be the outcome regardless.