Political Roundtable Part XI

[closg00]

Ok, Republicans control everything, now let's see them govern. How-quickly will we see the wall pledge in the garbage bin?

[montestewart]

Ok, Republicans control everything, now let's see them govern. How-quickly will we see the wall pledge in the garbage bin?

Hopefully immediately. Too expensive.

[Induveca]

Ok, Republicans control everything, now let's see them govern. How-quickly will we see the wall pledge in the garbage bin?

Hopefully immediately. Too expensive.

He's a construction guy, that's one thing I actually expect him to follow through on, the threat to make Mexico pay for it is somewhat straightforward.

Expect to see iPhones constructed in the USA, some factories trickling back from Mexico and a lot of tariffs and bills sent to Mexico.

I don't agree with it, but if he can convince the senate/house it saves far more than it costs longterm?

[AFM]

Have you read the Wikileaks emails from Podesta, telling the polling companies to practice "over sampling" aka sampling more democrats than what's representative of the county. It's how Hillary had that 12 percent lead a week ago. The polls were BS. They polled way too many democrats.

Same thing happened in Brexit. The morning of the vote, they published a poll where the Brexiteers were down by 10%. They won by 4%. So they were off by 14% by a few hours? Or were they intentionally wrong?

I know this was covered before, but oversampling is a standard polling practice used capture data from subsets that would otherwise be too negligibly represented in a poll sample to get reliable results. The oversampling is weighted to offset an otherwise disproportionate result. Whether it's done accurately is another story, but it's no secret at all. PEW explains it on their website (search for "oversampling" on the page).
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/

Partisans on both sides have been widely ignoring comments from pollsters themselves during this cycle regarding the new landscape for polling. The former primary method for compiling data was calling on a landline, and as years passed, younger voters skewed away from landlines, and now only a minority of voters even have a landline, calling cell phones is more expensive and labor intensive, and many people screen their calls on landlines or cell phones. Pollsters want to sell their polls, but they've been tacitly admitting less confidence in them than in the past.

Without something else, that Podesta email is no more incriminating than kill in "kill the lights." The reason people jump to the conclusion of conspiracy and collusion for every little thing is that it provides a sense of order in the face of the alternative, that the world is chaotic and people aren't as competent and caring as we would like. So, EG must have damning pictures of Terd, rather than Terd is just so lame.

Maybe you're right about the email.
But looking at the 12 percent Hillary lead poll, they "over sampled" democrats by a crap ton.
That's why I predicted a trump presidency.
Easy math. Plus I figured, trump was going to do better than polls.

[montestewart]

Same thing happened in Brexit. The morning of the vote, they published a poll where the Brexiteers were down by 10%. They won by 4%. So they were off by 14% by a few hours? Or were they intentionally wrong?

I know this was covered before, but oversampling is a standard polling practice used capture data from subsets that would otherwise be too negligibly represented in a poll sample to get reliable results. The oversampling is weighted to offset an otherwise disproportionate result. Whether it's done accurately is another story, but it's no secret at all. PEW explains it on their website (search for "oversampling" on the page).
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/

Partisans on both sides have been widely ignoring comments from pollsters themselves during this cycle regarding the new landscape for polling. The former primary method for compiling data was calling on a landline, and as years passed, younger voters skewed away from landlines, and now only a minority of voters even have a landline, calling cell phones is more expensive and labor intensive, and many people screen their calls on landlines or cell phones. Pollsters want to sell their polls, but they've been tacitly admitting less confidence in them than in the past.

Without something else, that Podesta email is no more incriminating than kill in "kill the lights." The reason people jump to the conclusion of conspiracy and collusion for every little thing is that it provides a sense of order in the face of the alternative, that the world is chaotic and people aren't as competent and caring as we would like. So, EG must have damning pictures of Terd, rather than Terd is just so lame.

Maybe you're right about the email.
But looking at the 12 percent Hillary lead poll, they "over sampled" democrats by a crap ton.
That's why I predicted a trump presidency.
Easy math. Plus I figured, trump was going to do better than polls.

Where did you see a 12% lead? I've been seeing mostly 2-5% (a few had Trump barely ahead). 12% seems like such an outlier that it's begging to be ignored.

[montestewart]

Ok, Republicans control everything, now let's see them govern. How-quickly will we see the wall pledge in the garbage bin?

Hopefully immediately. Too expensive.

He's a construction guy, that's one thing I actually expect him to follow through on, the threat to make Mexico pay for it is somewhat straightforward.

Expect to see iPhones constructed in the USA, some factories trickling back from Mexico and a lot of tariffs and bills sent to Mexico.

I don't agree with it, but if he can convince the senate/house it saves far more than it costs longterm?

You have a lot more confidence in him than I do. I don't see him as a construction guy, but a celebrity residential/hospitality property-development dealmaker. The wall would have few precedents (maybe TVA, massive Corps of Engineers wetlands projects, the Great Wall of China, canals), would presumably call for government expansion to create and maintain it, might call for some eminent domain takings (depending on scale, that could create a huge Constitutional contradiction within Republican party), and would be expensive. Maybe he'll pay Mexican illegals to build it in return for leaving when they're done.

[AFM]

I know this was covered before, but oversampling is a standard polling practice used capture data from subsets that would otherwise be too negligibly represented in a poll sample to get reliable results. The oversampling is weighted to offset an otherwise disproportionate result. Whether it's done accurately is another story, but it's no secret at all. PEW explains it on their website (search for "oversampling" on the page).
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/

Partisans on both sides have been widely ignoring comments from pollsters themselves during this cycle regarding the new landscape for polling. The former primary method for compiling data was calling on a landline, and as years passed, younger voters skewed away from landlines, and now only a minority of voters even have a landline, calling cell phones is more expensive and labor intensive, and many people screen their calls on landlines or cell phones. Pollsters want to sell their polls, but they've been tacitly admitting less confidence in them than in the past.

Without something else, that Podesta email is no more incriminating than kill in "kill the lights." The reason people jump to the conclusion of conspiracy and collusion for every little thing is that it provides a sense of order in the face of the alternative, that the world is chaotic and people aren't as competent and caring as we would like. So, EG must have damning pictures of Terd, rather than Terd is just so lame.

Maybe you're right about the email.
But looking at the 12 percent Hillary lead poll, they "over sampled" democrats by a crap ton.
That's why I predicted a trump presidency.
Easy math. Plus I figured, trump was going to do better than polls.

Where did you see a 12% lead? I've been seeing mostly 2-5% (a few had Trump barely ahead). 12% seems like such an outlier that it's begging to be ignored.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

This was all over the news two weeks ago Monte...
It was the number one news story for a few days.

And guess what?

If you look at the polling details:
They polled mostly democrats.

Wow, can't believe a poll, polling mostly democrats,
Showed a huge lead for Hillary. Wow!

Kind of like that 10% lead for "stay" during the brexit campaign!

[Induveca]

I know this was covered before, but oversampling is a standard polling practice used capture data from subsets that would otherwise be too negligibly represented in a poll sample to get reliable results. The oversampling is weighted to offset an otherwise disproportionate result. Whether it's done accurately is another story, but it's no secret at all. PEW explains it on their website (search for "oversampling" on the page).
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/

Partisans on both sides have been widely ignoring comments from pollsters themselves during this cycle regarding the new landscape for polling. The former primary method for compiling data was calling on a landline, and as years passed, younger voters skewed away from landlines, and now only a minority of voters even have a landline, calling cell phones is more expensive and labor intensive, and many people screen their calls on landlines or cell phones. Pollsters want to sell their polls, but they've been tacitly admitting less confidence in them than in the past.

Without something else, that Podesta email is no more incriminating than kill in "kill the lights." The reason people jump to the conclusion of conspiracy and collusion for every little thing is that it provides a sense of order in the face of the alternative, that the world is chaotic and people aren't as competent and caring as we would like. So, EG must have damning pictures of Terd, rather than Terd is just so lame.

Maybe you're right about the email.
But looking at the 12 percent Hillary lead poll, they "over sampled" democrats by a crap ton.
That's why I predicted a trump presidency.
Easy math. Plus I figured, trump was going to do better than polls.

Where did you see a 12% lead? I've been seeing mostly 2-5% (a few had Trump barely ahead). 12% seems like such an outlier that it's begging to be ignored.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-who-is-winning-2016-229886

[AFM]

Maybe you're right about the email.
But looking at the 12 percent Hillary lead poll, they "over sampled" democrats by a crap ton.
That's why I predicted a trump presidency.
Easy math. Plus I figured, trump was going to do better than polls.

Where did you see a 12% lead? I've been seeing mostly 2-5% (a few had Trump barely ahead). 12% seems like such an outlier that it's begging to be ignored.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-who-is-winning-2016-229886

Indu,

I'm in NY every few months.

I stay at 44th St.

LETS high five each other for the USA's sake at Bryant Park! I'll wear my Arenas Jersey!

[Induveca]

Hopefully immediately. Too expensive.

He's a construction guy, that's one thing I actually expect him to follow through on, the threat to make Mexico pay for it is somewhat straightforward.

Expect to see iPhones constructed in the USA, some factories trickling back from Mexico and a lot of tariffs and bills sent to Mexico.

I don't agree with it, but if he can convince the senate/house it saves far more than it costs longterm?

You have a lot more confidence in him than I do. I don't see him as a construction guy, but a celebrity residential/hospitality property-development dealmaker. The wall would have few precedents (maybe TVA, massive Corps of Engineers wetlands projects, the Great Wall of China, canals), would presumably call for government expansion to create and maintain it, might call for some eminent domain takings (depending on scale, that could create a huge Constitutional contradiction within Republican party), and would be expensive. Maybe he'll pay Mexican illegals to build it in return for leaving when they're done.

I've lived in NYC for most of my life at this point. His father was my uncles landlord, I've seen Trump build Trump Tower and rebuild 11th and 12th avenues in the west side of midtown.

MAJOR projects, ones doubted he could pull off.

[Induveca]

Where did you see a 12% lead? I've been seeing mostly 2-5% (a few had Trump barely ahead). 12% seems like such an outlier that it's begging to be ignored.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-who-is-winning-2016-229886

Indu,

I'm in NY every few months.

I stay at 44th St.

LETS high five each other for the USA's sake at Bryant Park! I'll wear my Arenas Jersey!

44th eh, Algonquin, Iroquois or the Royalton?

[nate33]

[Induveca]

8-)

You deserved that!

[Wizardspride]

........

[AFM]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-who-is-winning-2016-229886

Indu,

I'm in NY every few months.

I stay at 44th St.

LETS high five each other for the USA's sake at Bryant Park! I'll wear my Arenas Jersey!

44th eh, Algonquin, Iroquois or the Royalton?

Check your PMs my slightly browner brother!

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

This is actually happening. Gonna be hard to explain to my children tomorrow.

[montestewart]

8-)

Come crawling back, eh?

[montestewart]

Maybe you're right about the email.
But looking at the 12 percent Hillary lead poll, they "over sampled" democrats by a crap ton.
That's why I predicted a trump presidency.
Easy math. Plus I figured, trump was going to do better than polls.

Where did you see a 12% lead? I've been seeing mostly 2-5% (a few had Trump barely ahead). 12% seems like such an outlier that it's begging to be ignored.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

This was all over the news two weeks ago Monte...
It was the number one news story for a few days.

And guess what?

If you look at the polling details:
They polled mostly democrats.

Wow, can't believe a poll, polling mostly democrats,
Showed a huge lead for Hillary. Wow!

Kind of like that 10% lead for "stay" during the brexit campaign!

The partisan polling looks like it corresponds to the numbers of registered voters 36-27-31 Democrat/Independent/Republican.

I've mostly followed 538 and never noticed that poll, which probably was adjusted downward as an outlier.

[Kanyewest]

8-)

You were right.

Sent from my LG-D851 using RealGM mobile app

[Wizardspride]

The very thought of Obama "turning over the keys" to a man who questioned his birthright, his academic achievements etc etc just bothers me on a visceral level.

Yeah, I can't even watch that ****.