BBall Loyalty wrote:Out of your list, I can eliminate a bunch of players off the bat, Giannis, Dwight, Durant (curry hurts him), LeBron (will be coasting too much), and DeMar (i just don't think he's an MVP talent).
That leaves Lillard, Leonard, Paul, and Westbrook. From there you can use your criteria to start cutting down candidates. Will Lillard/Westbrook be on top 3 seeded teams? It's possible right now but I wouldn't count on it, my top 3 seeds at this point are still GS, SA, and LAC. Since those two are in the same boat as Harden, his statistical advantage might favor him.
Then it leaves Leonard/Paul against Harden. Leonard is a serious candidate and so is Paul especially if the Clippers become #1 seed. If their teams win 60 games give them the MVP, but if those teams are more like 55-win teams and Harden's team is a 48+ win team Harden has a legitimate case for being more deserving of MVP IMO, regardless of seeding.
I put those 10 guys down just to be fair and inclusive. I left Steph off because KD's stats are better for now. Of course, the list can shift.
Here's more data of On/Off based on NRTG per 100 possessions. This information hurts Lillard and Howard greatly. Data is like a day or two old so figures may be slightly different now.
On/Off (per NRTG/100, NBA.com)
JH = +07.6 ON; -30.3 OFF; +37.9 O/O
GA = +13.2 ON; -15.9 OFF; +29.1 O/O
RW = +08.9 ON; -15.2 OFF; +24.1 O/O
LJ = +14.8 ON; -06.4 OFF; +21.2 O/O
KD = +06.2 ON; -07.5 OFF; +13.7 O/O
CP = +13.7 ON; +05.2 OFF; +08.7 O/O
KL = +10.5 ON; +02.2 OFF; +08.3 O/O
DD = +09.4 ON; +03.4 OFF; +06.0 O/O
DL = -01.0 ON; -02.8 OFF; +01.8 O/O
DH = +08.1 ON; +14.8 OFF; -06.7 O/O
You can see there that Harden, Giannis, Westbrook and LeBron are significantly ahead of the rest of the field. Harden really is on his own super island, to be fair.
For MVP, though, you have to win games. If you don't have 50 wins for your team, it's probably a lost cause. I don't have a vote, that's just the recent history.
