2016-2017 off season thread.

[Quake Griffin]

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Bill Shea
‏@Bill_Shea19
I'm not plugged into the MLB trade channels, but a source who is connected to Verlander's camp told me the rumored Dodgers trade is brewing.

[Ranma]

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Bill Shea
‏@Bill_Shea19
I'm not plugged into the MLB trade channels, but a source who is connected to Verlander's camp told me the rumored Dodgers trade is brewing.

I've actually been concerned about this possibility, so I'm not surprised things may be heading towards acquiring Verlander. He used to be among my favorite pitchers when he was dominant, obviously, but while he's still a workhorse, he's not the same guy even if he still racks up the K's for now.

The problem is that he is still owed a lot of money for 4 3 more years through his age 37 36 season. He's at risk for a steep drop-off at any moment, so I'm not inclined to give up a huge package for him. Frankly, I'm not sure I'd include De Leon in a deal to get him. In any case, Detroit would have to eat a significant amount of money--at least $10 million but hopefully $25 million $15 million (highly unlikely)--to make him appealing to me.

If we can get him for Verdugo, Calhoun, and Wood, then I wouldn't be opposed to pulling the trigger at all. Urias is most definitely off the table in any permutation, but I'm sure they'll be asking for De Leon and I'm only inclined to do so if they pay the upper end of my targeted salary retention figures.

2017 | $28,000,000 | Age 34
2018 | $28,000,000 | Age 35
2019 | $28,000,000 | Age 36
2020 | $22,000,000 | Age 37 (vesting option if finishes in Top 5 of 2019 Cy Young voting)

Update: Dustin Nosler points out in his recent article about trading for Verlander that there are only 3 years and $84 million guaranteed left on his deal with the 4th year vesting if he's among the top pitchers in baseball in 2019.

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[Neddy]

I'd actually prefer the following scenario right now:

• Re-sign Kenley Jansen.
• Sign Aroldis Chapman on condition he participates in domestic violence counseling to ease PR concerns.
• Trade for Chris Sale.
• Trade for Evan Longoria.
• Sign Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.
• Trade Howie Kendrick.
• Do not re-sign Chase Utley.

This would allow us to get a compensatory draft pick for Justin Turner while also getting his replacement at 3B on a more reasonable contract. Our bullpen would be strengthened with the powerful 1-2 punch that we wanted with Jansen as the undisputed closer. Also, trades for Sale and Longoria are on the condition of not including Julio Urias, Cody Bellinger, nor Yadier Alvarez.

If we can't trade for Longoria, then re-signing Turner would be another priority. I still want to hold onto Yasiel Puig, especially with the likelihood of not re-signing Josh Reddick. I'm also interested in giving a Greg Holland a spot in our bullpen if our scouts sign off on his performance during his showcases. I think we have our heir to A-Gon in Bellinger with the likes of Scott Van Slyke, Yasmani Grandal, and Longoria as stopgap backup options until he is ready.

I'm also open to giving Scott Kazmir a shot at returning to form with a spot in our starting rotation, but I won't oppose trading him either. I previously approved of giving Brett Anderson a qualifying offer but that is unlikely and unwise in hindsight.

that would make a very strong team minus a strong rotation, but...

trading for Sale and Longoria will automatically deplete our farm to bare minimum. we are at the mercy of one left elbow from TJS, and no guarantee that Chapman will sign with us knowing he won't be the closer nor do we have any assurance we can sign back Kenley or Gurriel.

anyhow tho, I do believe Howie is gone.

[Ranma]

that would make a very strong team minus a strong rotation, but...

trading for Sale and Longoria will automatically deplete our farm to bare minimum. we are at the mercy of one left elbow from TJS, and no guarantee that Chapman will sign with us knowing he won't be the closer nor do we have any assurance we can sign back Kenley or Gurriel.

anyhow tho, I do believe Howie is gone.

Yeah, all of those are valid concerns, but with regards to the depth of our farm system, I'm not as concerned with giving up quantity right now since I view that we're lacking in top-shelf potential prospects and feel we can easily replace those traded away in fairly short order. Of course, this depends on who is traded. Speaking of prospects, make sure to check out my latest post in the Prospects thread where Eric Longenhagen ranked the Dodgers' prospects in a recent FanGraphs article. Longenhagen did the draft profiles for ESPN for the 2016 MLB Draft and I actually favor his rankings over MLB Pipeline's right now even though I think De Leon should actually be ranked above Verdugo.

Maybe the rumored Verlander trade will alleviate some of these concerns since it would presumably cost less to acquire him than Sale, especially since if we're going to take on his contract commitment. though I doubt it. It would probably shift whatever saved assets to a Longoria deal. Admittedly, I'd feel better going into next season with a possible rotation of:

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Justin Verlander
3. Julio Urias
4. Kenta Maeda
5. Scott Kazmir / Brandon McCarthy / Hyun-jin Ryu

It's the long-term effects of acquiring Verlander's contract as well as the cost in prospects that worries me.

[AGAVE]

I'm not a fan of including DeLeon in a Verlander acquisition.
Now, if Kazmir is within the discussion, then maybe his contract works in this scenario.
I'm just not ready to give away DeLeon at this time.
Wood I don't mind moving for some sort of talent.

[Ranma]

I'm not a fan of including DeLeon in a Verlander acquisition.
Now, if Kazmir is within the discussion, then maybe his contract works in this scenario.
I'm just not ready to give away DeLeon at this time.

I'm with you there, but Detroit wants to rebuild with a youth movement along with shedding salary to follow the Cubs' model, which is the hot thing for GMs now. I don't know if we can pull off a trade for Verlander without giving up De Leon. I know Detroit was high on Wood at one point, but he wouldn't be enough to be the centerpiece of a trade package. Personally, I'm also inclined not to do a deal for Verlander because of his contract and the prospect of giving up De Leon for him. The Dodgers are one of the few teams--and likely the only team--willing to trade for Verlander and his contract right now, so why bid against ourselves? Obviously, a barren market for free-agent pitchers will probably change that, but I still have a hard time seeing other teams willing to swallow JV's big-money commitment.

In any case, the GM meetings are pretty much wrapped up and a deal for Verlander is unlikely to happen until the winter meetings in December. Usually groundwork is laid during the GM meetings to have things in place before all offers are fielded during the frenzied activity of the winter meetings in the aftermath of the initial wave of free agency.

[Ranma]

I just posted in the International Signing thread that the Blue Jays have reportedly signed Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. for 7 years at $22 million. I am royally [expletive] off at this. How the hell do we not shell out such a small amount for this guy when we spent $30 million for Yaisel Sierra?!

I'm curious what new international scouting director Ismael Cruz thinks of this since he has a noteworthy reputation on the Latin scene and worked for the Blue Jays previously. I'm so disappointed with the Dodgers for missing out on him. Hey, Gurriel will very likely not be a superstar but I totally think he'll be a good player with tremendous versatility who will help an MLB team in the near future.

[Quake Griffin]

Gotta view this Howie Kendrick trade as a salary dump.

lol at getting Darnell Sweeney back.

[Ranma]

We would have been so much better off not to have signed Kendrick and getting a compensatory 2016 draft pick when he was a free agent. The problem was that the market for his services dried up pretty quickly when the D-backs apparently backed away from a tentative agreement to sign him. We could have drafted Alec Hansen, Buddy Reed, or Joey Wentz...any of whom would likely be among our top 15 prospects right now.

[Neddy]

wonder if Sweeney and Ruf are gonna be a couple of fluffs for a trade. maybe to send them along with one decent prospect to flip over to Detroit for Kinsler?

[Ranma]

wonder if Sweeney and Ruf are gonna be a couple of fluffs for a trade. maybe to send them along with one decent prospect to flip over to Detroit for Kinsler?

I don't see it. The way the Phillies' beat writer described it, neither Sweeney or Ruf were going to be on Philadelphia's 40-man roster. Sweeney was already sent down and Ruf was going to be DFA'ed. The Dodgers will have to pass Ruf through waivers in order to send him down but it's unlikely anyone will pick him up.

Ruf does look like a decent right-handed power bat at 1B in limited use as a platoon player but that doesn't sound like it'd be worth a roster spot to start the season. Sweeney could be a reclamation project who was on an upswing before he was dealt by the Dodgers but has been on the decline since.

This was pretty much a salary dump to open up a roster spot for more deserving players. Good enough for me.

[Neddy]

So, the GM meeting is over and still no deal? I assume we lowballed for Verlander, maybe offered Willie, Verdugo and Walker for Verlander and Kinsler and got a laugher?

I am warming up to Verlander a little, since if it costs us money and not prospects of any real importance to us, then might as well. kinda wonder if our FO is counting on shedding salaries of Ethier, Gonzo, and likes of Carl Crawford coming off the books with probable dead weight of Verlander's last 2 years.

[Neddy]

if we pass on Chapman and Jensen is gone, i suggest we convert Wood into our closer. take a look at his stats first time facing the lineup, then lookup his stats as reliever. his numbers are most dominant both in his career and in 2016 when he is facing hitters the first time as a reliever with a good K/BB ratio.

[AGAVE]

For me, WOOD is NOT a set up guy.
(ya I meant closer but didn't proof read my post...sorry)
I say this, like Baez, at times their consistency and erratic pitch releases can change the momentum of the game.
I would not count on Wood being a solid reliever in the event we have neither AC or KJ.

[Ranma]

Phillips has only 1 more year remaining at $14 million on his current contract through his age 36 season. Shouldn't cost too much to acqire him.

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[Neddy]

Phillips has only 1 more year remaining at $14 million on his current contract through his age 36 season. Shouldn't cost too much to acqire him.

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I would die laughing if we send them Sweeney for him.

between Phillips and Kinsler, their separation in WAR value is enormous. I would have to assume the price of Brandon is considerably cheaper. maybe not straight up for Sweeney, but they already are enjoying Scott Schebler and Jose Peraza we gave them, why not buy another mid level prospect we have that is MLB ready?

I would think Brock Stewart and Sweeney would make the deal for Phillips.

turn around and sell Willie Calhoun, Walker Buehler, and Carlos Frias to Detriot for Verlander and a low level prospect.

again, just like Ranma stated before, I too would not sell De Leon for Verlander.

[Neddy]

For me, WOOD is NOT a set up guy.
I say this, like Baez, at times their consistency and erratic pitch releases can change the momentum of the game.
I would not count on Wood being a solid reliever in the event we have neither AC or KJ.

didn't say setup, I said closer. I know what you meant, but you better look up his stats before you make up your mind from your 'eye' test. when going deep is not the main concern, his stuff and his control improves by a mile. all his peripheral stats jump up.

not trying to convince anyone, if anyone reads up on it, they'll see it too.

and Baez and Wood are not the same kind of players. Baez has no shot being a starter, is a one pitch pitcher who has control issues with that one pitch he does have. Wood is a 3 pitch guy who tries to stretch his stuff to last longer as a starter, trying to work with two until the second or third time around the lineup while throwing at less than 100% effort not to get tired too early. you give him only 3 outs to work with, he has all 3 pitches in his arsenal and his effort seems to rise.

4 to 1 ratio of K to BB is very good. that puts him right up there with Chapman's and Melancon's in this league. control is a none issue as a closer.

[Neddy]

thinking about outside options for a closer, I know for a fact the Orioles owner Peter Angelos is a scumbag. he will never pay his closer a 10 million plus Zach Britton will command in the arbitration this off season. they also have issues with quality starters outside of Tillman and Gausman. Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez are free agents, and they could use a cheap power bat who can man corner OF, mainly in RF and DH, possibly 1B.

I suggest we try SVS and Chase De Jung for Britton and injury decimated Branden Kline who is already 25 but has potential. Chase is already at AAA and performed very well, and if it wasn't for Urias and De Leon, he would be the talk of the town for the next rotational prospect.

just to let you guys know that when you lay over Camden Yard's stadium outline to SVS' long flyballs, all of his HRs here are HRs there and most of the long warning track outs are also HRs. he can replace Trumbo's production if he is healthy and given the full confidence to start everygame. I also believe Chase can be better than anyone not named TIllman or Gausman within 3 years for that rotation. the names may not be sexy but this deal I believe will benefit both teams and their needs muturally.

[Neddy]

thinking about internal options only, with no regard to trades or free agent signnes, or even or own FAs.

C : Grandal, Barnes, Farmer
1B : Gonzalez, SVS, Bellinger
2B : ****, Barnes, Culberson, Taylor, Micah, Willie
3B : ****, Barnes, Culberson, Taylor, Farmer
LF : Toles, Thompson, Ethier, SVS
CF : Joc, Toles, Thompson, ****, Puig, SVS
RF : Puig, Ethier, Thompson, SVS
Primary LHP : Ethier
Primary RHP : SVS

I think the best lineup in this situation would not have Barnes as the primary catcher, but rather an everyday 2B or 3B. Farmer is un-proven, already 26 and a converted catcher from SS, and surely his bat is not ready. but defensively, he has a strong throwing arm behind the plate, his lack of speed is not a factor at 3B, I still want the bulk of the back up catching duties to go to Barnes, but have to have reasonable options on infield as well as having a 3rd catcher while both back up Cs can play other infield position, seems crucial when internal options only scenario is being looked at. of course, this is not realistic. we will bring in a bunch of FAs if not our own, and backup vet catchers are dime a dozen. we can even bring back AJ at a vet's minimum and pay him a fraction of last year's salary to basically be Kershaw's caddy. Farmer will not see a day in the majors in 2017, and we will get a glance at the AAAA trio middle infielders, Culberson, Taylor, and Micah Johnson. but strictly speaking from what we already have, with no additions, my lineup will look like this.

1. LF L Toles
2. SS L Seager
3. RF R Puig
4. 1B L Gonzalez
5. CF L Joc
6. 3B R ****
7. C S Grandal
8. 2B R Barnes

OF/PH L Ethier
OF/PH R SVS
OF R Thompson
IF R Culberson
C/3B R Farmer

with regard to the pitching, as we have been playing guessing game, is anyone's guess. but what we do have,

SP1 L Kershaw
SP2 R Maeda
SP3 L Urias
SP4 R De Leon
SP5 injury returnee -- Kazmir/McCarthy/Ryu or AAAA options --- Stewart, Frias.

CP L Wood
SU R Stripling
SU L Dayton
MR L Liberatore
MR R Fields
MR L Avilan
MR L Nunos
recycling bin/garbage find ---- MR R Baez
injury returnees/AAAA options --- Garcia, Hatcher, Ravin, Tsao.


so, after looking at our internal options, we are in need of, in order of the priority,

1. better SP2
2. 3B
3. CP
4, SU
5. 2B

I know many loyal fans will get their heats broken, but if we are going to spend major bucks on a closer, we should sign Chapman and hope Jansen gets signed elsewhere, leaving us with a first round pick. or we could go with the route I suggested in the last post and find a way to trade for Britton.

we should let Turner walk, he is a great hitter and and a great glove at 3B, but he is older, injury prone, and as a right handed hitter he gives no relief againt LHP. he essentially make our top of the lineup all lefty. his split is ugly, and reversed. he too will bring us a first round pick, and either Barnes or **** should get a look at 3B

sign a back up catcher, if Barnes do get his start at 3B or 2B. for guys who will cost no more than a minimum, AJ Ellis is available. if we want to upgrade and pay around what we have paid to last season's AJ or Ruiz, there is Kirt Suzuki. a bit more and there is Chris Iannetta, even our old friend Dioner Navarro. how about another ex Dodger and a long time Twin Drew Butera? Drew's contract demand would look similar to AJ's.

then, we can trade for Verlander with prospects not named De Leon or Bellinger. Wonder if Puig still have value to be packaged around. Puig, WIllie, Walker Buehler for Verlander and perhaps Kinsler? of course, if Kinsler comes along with Verlander, it cancels the need of signing a back up catcher, Barnes is the man behind Grandal, Kinsler slides into Puig's batting order, **** drops to bat 8th, Ethier and SVS can platoon RF while batting between Gonzo and Joc.

either way, if we make most or all of the moves I suggested above, we can build a very competitive team in 2017 while going into the draft with 3 first round picks or more. a great way to build a sustained success for a very long time.

[Neddy]

No raiders game with the bye week, and no Clippers game after back to back road games... and I don't go to church and can't bare to watch news on this lazy sunday morning... pondering and obscessing even more with baseball.

anywho, say we went with less costly option with the closer and we stay out of Jansen, Chapman, Melancon as each will be escalting the bets into 4 or longer years with 60 million or more guaranteed. 3 years for 50 seems to be the starting point. trading for Britton seems like a real possibility. SVS and Chase De Jung should do it. Orioles being an AL team, perhaps they maybe interested in Willie. they do have Kim and Rickard at LF, but as I mentioned before, they will be out of Trumbo and Alvarez. problem will be that neither Kim nor Rickard have the arm to be a regular RF and it seems neither does Willie. SVS does tho. we should not have to give up SVS AND Willie AND De Jung, even if Britton was in the cy young discussion leading up to the award selection. I would be happy with Willie and De Jung for Britton, but SVS would bring better immediate return as well as positional stability for the O's, whereas Willie may represent higher potential. I am going to write in Willie and De Jung for now just because them being an AL team and Willie probably has a better value in the market.

we do let Turner walk, but we do grab Brandon Phillips from the Reds, as Quake had mentioned before. his contract is expiring, and his numbers have declined to a point of being slightly below average, so he shouldn't cost us much beyond say, Sweeney and maybe Casey Fien. the price shouldn't involve any of our elite prospects or even mid level young ones. I think with the understanding that Reds are wanting his salary dumped, it should be very doable without giving up any value. besides, they probably want to open up a spot for Peraza. Zack Cozart is still relatively cheap and effective at SS. but one thing to remember is that if we bring in Phillips, we are not re-signing Utley. we cannot justify spending 20 million dollars for a platooning 2B. even for a team like us, that makes no sense. we bring in Phillips with in mind that we are going to give the job to a youngster to be groomed. maybe Micah Johnson could be Phillips' understudy. if we want Taylor to be such, then we shouldn't have Phillips, but just bring back Utley for obvious L/R platoon issues. for now I am going to say we get Phillips.

no need to sign a back up catcher, since we get the 2B filled, pushing **** to try his luck at 3B which I actually think is a great spot for him. we can give a spring training invite to a guy like Casey McGehee to push ****. it shouldn't be too hard to beat out a washed up McGehee.

with De Jung and Willie gone, we build a package around Verdugo for Verlander. I would hate to do this as Verdugo could be a star for the next decade for the Tigers, and Verlander may have two more good years left out of his 4 year deal. but with the understanding that Urias and De Leon will replace him for the top of the rotation, with Kershaw coming back, we could pay 22 million for 2 extra years for a #4 SP. say, we give up Verdugo and Walker Buehler, plus some less parts. also let's assume they reject Puig as a part of the trade package.

we then have given up Willie, Verdugo, De Jung, and Walker. perhaps they may want shefield more than Walker but I am going to write this as Walker is the one we give up.

I also think we should bring back Blanton, but not for the 8th inning job. he would make a great 7th inning guy.

our team for 2017 then would look like

SP1 L Kershaw
SP2 R Verlander
SP3 R Maeda ( by mid season, he will be #5 to give him more rests)
SP4 L Urias ( probable innings limit at around 150-170? give him a month off in July when injured guys need a try out)
SP5 R De Leon. he is 24 already. his body can take the full season load.
CP L Britton
SU L Wood
SU R Stripling
SU R Blanton
MR L Liberatore
MR L Avilan / Nunos whichever beats out the other.
MR R Baez
--------------------
SP6/7/8 McCarthy/Kazmir/Ryu as their health permits to compete.
Frias, Garcia, Hatcher are all available as their health permits.
---------------------
MR L Dayton ( I think we are in for a major rebound in the wrong way with him)
MR R Baez ( he just isn't a high pressure situation guy, but his numbers in low pressure situation is very very good )


1 LF L Toles
2 SS L Seager
3 RF R Puig
4 1B L Gonzalez
5 2B R Phillips
6 CF L Joc
7 C S Grandal
8 3B R ****

OF L Ethier - primary Left handed PH
Uti R SVS - primary Right handed PH
OF R Thompson - 4th OF
IF R Culberson - 3B/SS/2B
C R Barnes.

we make a moderate increase in payroll with Verlander and Phillips but the youth movement continues and the payroll will become very friendly in 2 seasons. when Ethier's contract is over, Bellinger will take his roster spot, and in other year he will replace Gonzo. in 2 seasons Alvarez should also be ready for the show. by then Maeda is probably going through a rehab and will have a spot in the rotation for him as well.