Official Trade Thread - Part XXXI

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Would the Kings do a Beal, Gortat, Oubre for Boogie plus spare parts (Temple, Afflalo, etc) trade?

[Dark Faze]

The problem is that if Cousins is on the market the Celtics will surely come to play ball and they'll be armed with the Nets pick which is more valuable than Beal + Gortat because it includes a potential franchise player. At this point it's relatively certain that Beal isn't ever going to be that.

I think Philly is our best bet. It's a team that isn't going to care about Brads salary given how far under the cap they are, and they are going to be more willing to roll the dice with a guy like Brad who at worst is a competent starting SG in this league, and at best has perceived upside due to age and "hype" (albeit dying). It's the sort of gamble any young franchise should be willing to make in their situation, and they'll be drafting in the top 5 of a point guard heavy draft.

#1 pick PG/Beal/Covington/Simmons/Embiid while still having one of Nerlens/Okafor as a backup trade piece is a great place to be.

We should be happy with either of Nerlens or Okafor frankly. The biggest issue is that I don't even know if Philly has the contracts to meet the salary requirements for a swap--could require a third team.

The bad news is Nerlens is up for an extension as well. And both he and Porter would command a high number. Being maxed out with those guys still isn't ideal--we need at least a competent replacement for Beal. The hope in that situation is you'd let the market decide prices for both guys that are more on the low side. But it'd give us the option of moving Gortat for someone like Galo.

[J-Ves]

Would the Kings do a Beal, Gortat, Oubre for Boogie plus spare parts (Temple, Afflalo, etc) trade?

Nope

Why? Because when the Kings do decide to trade Cousins there will be much better deals out there.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[queridiculo]

Shaq, a minority owner of the Kings, says that the team might soon look to get rid of Cousins b/c he is so hard to manage and provides no leadership whatsoever. They aren't going to get the big offers in return that some people here think they'll get. If he's a problem for them, he'll be viewed as likely a problem by other GMs.

OTOH, we have a big problem we can give them. I'd be happy to trade Beal for Cousins and Gay (another guy they'd like to dump) as long as there's no R1 pick added. I might even add Oubre to the deal, as I'm starting to doubt his upside.

Unfortunately, this is not the kind of deal Ernie is likely to do. It would be no surprise at all to see him acquire Cousins -- it would take the focus off of his dismal failures, and Ted would love it for the marketing value. But Ernie would give Porter instead of Beal, and he'll add at least 1 R1 pick in the deal, maybe 2.

The more I think about it, the more likely this seems. I am sure some of you will love it. We'll be in the bottom 1/2 of the league for the duration.

edit: in fact, most likely he'd give Porter & Gortat plus our R1 pick next year. I'm really afraid he's going to do exactly this.

It would be so Ernie to trade the guy with the most upside.

[payitforward]

I'm just thankful that Boston has that pick to include in a Cousins trade. OTOH, I'm not sure they'll be all that interested in him. Not exactly a Celtics tradition type of guy.

[gambitx777]

I feel like If we trade for boogie, we should offer Mahimi, brad and oubre, and a future loto protected first as in not this years pick, im thinking 2018 or 2019 for boogie and Gay
No one wants to give value for gay and no one is real interested in the boogie problem since they can get both in free agency in a couple years. make them that offer and walk if they don't like it. maybe come back and offer smith for WCS if they reject this offer. But do not give hem any more than this. I would push to hold on to gortat, because he would make a great bench anchor. I not saying they do the trade but im saying thats the offer you make and you walk if they dont, like it.

[payitforward]

I feel like If we trade for boogie, we should offer Mahimi, brad and oubre, and a future loto protected first as in not this years pick, im thinking 2018 or 2019 for boogie and Gay
No one wants to give value for gay and no one is real interested in the boogie problem since they can get both in free agency in a couple years. make them that offer and walk if they don't like it. maybe come back and offer smith for WCS if they reject this offer. But do not give hem any more than this. I would push to hold on to gortat, because he would make a great bench anchor. I not saying they do the trade but im saying thats the offer you make and you walk if they dont, like it.

Well they aren't trading Willie Cauly-Stein for Jason Smith, you can be pretty sure of that! And Mahinmi can't be traded for a while if I'm right (ditto Smith for that matter).

Personally, I don't want to acquire Cousins, not that any of you are surprised by that. But I would definitely like a young big with upside -- like WCS! And to lay Beal off on another team. Hence my proposed trade. But... I really don't like the idea of trading any future R1 picks.

Anyway, Ernie wouldn't do a trade of the kind I'm suggesting. And Ted will only be interested in a trade that has marketing value (but, maybe he'd see Gay that way, who knows?).

[deneem4]

Let's just trade gortat

[payitforward]

Let's just trade gortat

Oh, absolutely. I mean he's grabbing 15 boards every 40 minutes and has .60 TS% -- who needs that, right?

[gambitx777]

I feel like If we trade for boogie, we should offer Mahimi, brad and oubre, and a future loto protected first as in not this years pick, im thinking 2018 or 2019 for boogie and Gay
No one wants to give value for gay and no one is real interested in the boogie problem since they can get both in free agency in a couple years. make them that offer and walk if they don't like it. maybe come back and offer smith for WCS if they reject this offer. But do not give hem any more than this. I would push to hold on to gortat, because he would make a great bench anchor. I not saying they do the trade but im saying thats the offer you make and you walk if they dont, like it.

Well they aren't trading Willie Cauly-Stein for Jason Smith, you can be pretty sure of that! And Mahinmi can't be traded for a while if I'm right (ditto Smith for that matter).

Personally, I don't want to acquire Cousins, not that any of you are surprised by that. But I would definitely like a young big with upside -- like WCS! And to lay Beal off on another team. Hence my proposed trade. But... I really don't like the idea of trading any future R1 picks.

Anyway, Ernie wouldn't do a trade of the kind I'm suggesting. And Ted will only be interested in a trade that has marketing value (but, maybe he'd see Gay that way, who knows?).

I'm suggesting we wait till later in the season to make a trade. When every one can be traded. I never like trading "this" years pick, id always rather take a gamble on trading a later pick than one that's a bit closer. But that's just me. Honestly I think wall/gay/otto/morris and boogie. would be a solid starting line up, Still does not fix out bench issues though. Maybe you let mcellen start and let otto or gay start as a small ball 4 or put gay on the bench but still our bench needs help thats really our main issue. I feel like trading beal for a few players would be the actual better trade than trading him for just a couple starters.

[deneem4]

Let's just trade gortat

Oh, absolutely. I mean he's grabbing 15 boards every 40 minutes and has .60 TS% -- who needs that, right?

He's our most tradeable asset...
And he publicly down talks the team...ship him out...
We're not winning games with his consistent great play, he dont step up when our guys aren't playing well...
Why? Because he cant...
I'll rather have a big with a specialized skillset...
Either a goto post scorer
Elite rim protecter
OR good shooting...

Gortat is completely mediocre...he's Jason Smith at his best and that's not saying much...
Not to mention he's soft as fur...

[nbafan341]

Demaree caroll
Delon wright
1st round clippers pick

For porter and morris?

[gambitx777]

Demaree caroll
Delon wright
1st round clippers pick

For porter and morris?

Morris is actually returning to form and Porter is playing well. I would not trade wither of them in that package.

[krii]

Let's just trade gortat

Oh, absolutely. I mean he's grabbing 15 boards every 40 minutes and has .60 TS% -- who needs that, right?

He's our most tradeable asset...
And he publicly down talks the team...ship him out...
We're not winning games with his consistent great play, he dont step up when our guys aren't playing well...
Why? Because he cant...
I'll rather have a big with a specialized skillset...
Either a goto post scorer
Elite rim protecter
OR good shooting...

Gortat is completely mediocre...he's Jason Smith at his best and that's not saying much...
Not to mention he's soft as fur...

Are you serious? Are you comparing this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithja02.html to this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html?

I understand that people could be upset with Gortat's 'softness' and his 'inability' to dominate games but seriously, comparing him to Jason Smith? Dude is better than Smith in every single aspect of his game throughout this season and their entire careers. Heck, Smith was playable in Orlando but Gortat in his Orlando days was one of the best bench bigs in the league.

[deneem4]

Oh, absolutely. I mean he's grabbing 15 boards every 40 minutes and has .60 TS% -- who needs that, right?

He's our most tradeable asset...
And he publicly down talks the team...ship him out...
We're not winning games with his consistent great play, he dont step up when our guys aren't playing well...
Why? Because he cant...
I'll rather have a big with a specialized skillset...
Either a goto post scorer
Elite rim protecter
OR good shooting...

Gortat is completely mediocre...he's Jason Smith at his best and that's not saying much...
Not to mention he's soft as fur...

Are you serious? Are you comparing this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithja02.html to this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html?

I understand that people could be upset with Gortat's 'softness' and his 'inability' to dominate games but seriously, comparing him to Jason Smith? Dude is better than Smith in every single aspect of his game throughout this season and their entire careers. Heck, Smith was playable in Orlando but Gortat in his Orlando days was one of the best bench bigs in the league.

And that's all gortat is still a really good bench big...but the game have shifted from bigs in general..especially mediocre ones...
Most starting c in the league have unique or elite skill sets which allows them to heavily impact the game one way or another....
Gortat dont and he's on the decline if not declining already..

WCS available...
What's the value of gortat?

[Ruzious]

He's our most tradeable asset...
And he publicly down talks the team...ship him out...
We're not winning games with his consistent great play, he dont step up when our guys aren't playing well...
Why? Because he cant...
I'll rather have a big with a specialized skillset...
Either a goto post scorer
Elite rim protecter
OR good shooting...

Gortat is completely mediocre...he's Jason Smith at his best and that's not saying much...
Not to mention he's soft as fur...

Are you serious? Are you comparing this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithja02.html to this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html?

I understand that people could be upset with Gortat's 'softness' and his 'inability' to dominate games but seriously, comparing him to Jason Smith? Dude is better than Smith in every single aspect of his game throughout this season and their entire careers. Heck, Smith was playable in Orlando but Gortat in his Orlando days was one of the best bench bigs in the league.

And that's all gortat is still a really good bench big...but the game have shifted from bigs in general..especially mediocre ones...
Most starting c in the league have unique or elite skill sets which allows them to heavily impact the game one way or another....
Gortat dont and he's on the decline if not declining already..

WCS available...
What's the value of gortat?

Gortat's been the best PnR finisher in the NBA the last 2 seasons. That's been his elite skill - and he's good at everything else other than perimeter shooting. He's actually fallen off in his scoring so far this season, but he'll likely climb back up in that stat. The problem with his trade value is his age. 32 year olds generally don't get you a whole lot.

[krii]

He's our most tradeable asset...
And he publicly down talks the team...ship him out...
We're not winning games with his consistent great play, he dont step up when our guys aren't playing well...
Why? Because he cant...
I'll rather have a big with a specialized skillset...
Either a goto post scorer
Elite rim protecter
OR good shooting...

Gortat is completely mediocre...he's Jason Smith at his best and that's not saying much...
Not to mention he's soft as fur...

Are you serious? Are you comparing this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithja02.html to this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html?

I understand that people could be upset with Gortat's 'softness' and his 'inability' to dominate games but seriously, comparing him to Jason Smith? Dude is better than Smith in every single aspect of his game throughout this season and their entire careers. Heck, Smith was playable in Orlando but Gortat in his Orlando days was one of the best bench bigs in the league.

And that's all gortat is still a really good bench big...but the game have shifted from bigs in general..especially mediocre ones...
Most starting c in the league have unique or elite skill sets which allows them to heavily impact the game one way or another....
Gortat dont and he's on the decline if not declining already..

WCS available...
What's the value of gortat?

You can't be serious.

But okay, let's try to find if you are right.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2017&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&force%3Apos_is=1&c1stat=g&c1comp=gt&c1val=5&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&c6mult=1.0&order_by=ws

Here we have a list of all centers that logged at least 10 minutes* per game in at least 5 games**, according to basketball reference. The list contains 44 names sorted by WS.

*10 minutes mark is pretty arbitrary but I we can say that a player that plays at least 10 mpg is either starter or that he is used regularly in the rotation.
**5 games accounts for ca half of the games this season so far. Again pretty arbitrary but at least we will see guys who weren't logging great numbers in one-two games stretch.

Let's try to check where does Gortat locate in each of the main categories:

1. FG%: 9th with .556
2. TS%: 10th with .599
3. WS: 6th with 0.9
4. PPG: 11th with 11.3
5. RPG: 5th with 12.4
6. APG: 11th with 1.6
7. SPG: 20th with 0.6
8. BPG: 16th with 1.0
9. TOV/G: 17th with 1.6
10. PF/G: 10th with 3.3

Now some advanced stats:

11. USG% 30th with 13.9
12. ORTg: 6th with 119
13. DRTg: 22nd with 105
14. OWS: 4th with 0.6
15. DWS: 8th with 0.4

Cool. Now we can see he is, in every single aspect of his game, at least on a starter level (assuming that TOP 30 should give you information about starting-caliber players). The only categories he stands out are: usage (low usage-high efficiency guy, oh wait that's a good thing), defensive rating (in a team that lost 7 out of their 9 games it would be truly amazing to have better rating), steals (he is 'just' 20th among centers with 0.6). In at least 9 categories he is in a top percentile of the group with good-to-very good numbers.
But okay, sure. He is a bench player that wouldn't find his spot in any other team in this league.

Bull-stuff.

[deneem4]

Are you serious? Are you comparing this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithja02.html to this http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html?

I understand that people could be upset with Gortat's 'softness' and his 'inability' to dominate games but seriously, comparing him to Jason Smith? Dude is better than Smith in every single aspect of his game throughout this season and their entire careers. Heck, Smith was playable in Orlando but Gortat in his Orlando days was one of the best bench bigs in the league.

And that's all gortat is still a really good bench big...but the game have shifted from bigs in general..especially mediocre ones...
Most starting c in the league have unique or elite skill sets which allows them to heavily impact the game one way or another....
Gortat dont and he's on the decline if not declining already..

WCS available...
What's the value of gortat?

You can't be serious.

But okay, let's try to find if you are right.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2017&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&force%3Apos_is=1&c1stat=g&c1comp=gt&c1val=5&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&c6mult=1.0&order_by=ws

Here we have a list of all centers that logged at least 10 minutes* per game in at least 5 games**, according to basketball reference. The list contains 44 names sorted by WS.

*10 minutes mark is pretty arbitrary but I we can say that a player that plays at least 10 mpg is either starter or that he is used regularly in the rotation.
**5 games accounts for ca half of the games this season so far. Again pretty arbitrary but at least we will see guys who weren't logging great numbers in one-two games stretch.

Let's try to check where does Gortat locate in each of the main categories:

1. FG%: 9th with .556
2. TS%: 10th with .599
3. WS: 6th with 0.9
4. PPG: 11th with 11.3
5. RPG: 5th with 12.4
6. APG: 11th with 1.6
7. SPG: 20th with 0.6
8. BPG: 16th with 1.0
9. TOV/G: 17th with 1.6
10. PF/G: 10th with 3.3

Now some advanced stats:

11. USG% 30th with 13.9
12. ORTg: 6th with 119
13. DRTg: 22nd with 105
14. OWS: 4th with 0.6
15. DWS: 8th with 0.4

Cool. Now we can see he is, in every single aspect of his game, at least on a starter level (assuming that TOP 30 should give you information about starting-caliber players). The only categories he stands out are: usage (low usage-high efficiency guy, oh wait that's a good thing), defensive rating (in a team that lost 7 out of their 9 games it would be truly amazing to have better rating), steals (he is 'just' 20th among centers with 0.6). In at least 9 categories he is in a top percentile of the group with good-to-very good numbers.
But okay, sure. He is a bench player that wouldn't find his spot in any other team in this league.

Bull-stuff.

But how does these incredible stats translate to wins for us???
They dont....
Gortat is a good player, but he's a mediocre starter...he would be great for us if we had an elite pf...but we dont....
Don't let the stats distract you from the effect he actually has on us winning games...

[krii]

And that's all gortat is still a really good bench big...but the game have shifted from bigs in general..especially mediocre ones...
Most starting c in the league have unique or elite skill sets which allows them to heavily impact the game one way or another....
Gortat dont and he's on the decline if not declining already..

WCS available...
What's the value of gortat?

You can't be serious.

But okay, let's try to find if you are right.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2017&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&force%3Apos_is=1&c1stat=g&c1comp=gt&c1val=5&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&c6mult=1.0&order_by=ws

Here we have a list of all centers that logged at least 10 minutes* per game in at least 5 games**, according to basketball reference. The list contains 44 names sorted by WS.

*10 minutes mark is pretty arbitrary but I we can say that a player that plays at least 10 mpg is either starter or that he is used regularly in the rotation.
**5 games accounts for ca half of the games this season so far. Again pretty arbitrary but at least we will see guys who weren't logging great numbers in one-two games stretch.

Let's try to check where does Gortat locate in each of the main categories:

1. FG%: 9th with .556
2. TS%: 10th with .599
3. WS: 6th with 0.9
4. PPG: 11th with 11.3
5. RPG: 5th with 12.4
6. APG: 11th with 1.6
7. SPG: 20th with 0.6
8. BPG: 16th with 1.0
9. TOV/G: 17th with 1.6
10. PF/G: 10th with 3.3

Now some advanced stats:

11. USG% 30th with 13.9
12. ORTg: 6th with 119
13. DRTg: 22nd with 105
14. OWS: 4th with 0.6
15. DWS: 8th with 0.4

Cool. Now we can see he is, in every single aspect of his game, at least on a starter level (assuming that TOP 30 should give you information about starting-caliber players). The only categories he stands out are: usage (low usage-high efficiency guy, oh wait that's a good thing), defensive rating (in a team that lost 7 out of their 9 games it would be truly amazing to have better rating), steals (he is 'just' 20th among centers with 0.6). In at least 9 categories he is in a top percentile of the group with good-to-very good numbers.
But okay, sure. He is a bench player that wouldn't find his spot in any other team in this league.

Bull-stuff.

But how does these incredible stats translate to wins for us???
They dont....
Gortat is a good player, but he's a mediocre starter...he would be great for us if we had an elite pf...but we dont....
Don't let the stats distract you from the effect he actually has on us winning games...

Win Shares is exactly the stat that gives you information on the effect that a player had on a certain team winning games. In such stat Gortat has 0.9 and is second in our team to only Otto (1.2). John Wall has 0.4. Among all centers he is 7th which means that only 6 other players in the league on his position contributed to their teams' wins more than him (actually Steven Adams has exactly same WS so 5 others). By using my previous variables on basketball reference without any specific position we have a list of players that played at least 10mpg and played in at least 5 games this season. Gortat is 39th ahead of likes Kylie Irving, Whiteside, Carmelo or PG. Again - I'm not saying he is any better than them. I'm not even saying that WS is a great formula but this is a stat that gives you opportunity to measure player's performance against other players and answers your great question 'how XYZ contributes to any team's winning games'.
If you prefer any more advanced stat use Kev's PPA. Player Production Average in spoiler you can read about this formula.

Spoiler:

Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.

PPA is pace neutral, and weighs a player’s performance per possession against the performance of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the actual values for each statistical category floats a bit from season to season based on league performance.

PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor.

Now among Wizards players Gortat is third to only Otto and JWall and it is mirroring his performance throughout his time here (he was always second or first in this ranking). Please check Kev's blog to see how many other players are averaging such numbers in the league (https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/). Bare in mind that Gortat is ALWAYS starting slower and, statistically speaking, he will be back to his averages in a month time. This means that Gortat at the moment is probably UNDERperforming (having in mind his numbers from previous seasons he always had slower starts and performance boost by December).

[payitforward]

I wouldn't even say Gortat's starting all that slow. WP48 gives results for players very similar to PPA. Among Centers who've played 200 minutes so far (i.e. they're logging @20+ minutes/game), Gortat ranks 10th in productivity. He's below Howard, Tristan Thompson, Gobert, Drummond, Draymond Green (who's mostly at C this season), DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Noah & Whiteside.