Where is Jahlil Okafor?

[spikeslovechild]

Wore his jersey in the club lol. He's probably the only sixer who doesn't need to.

[LloydFree]

Avery Bradley or Patrick Beverly would be perfect guard fits to play in a lineup with Ben Simmons. I would love for the 76ers to be able to pawn Okafor off on the Celtics. Unfortunately, there aren't that many GMs that are going to watch Okafor and say "I need that. I need a Big man who doesn't rebound, doesn't defend the paint, and is clueless on pick-n-rolls on both sides of the ball." I would love for Danny Ainge to be dumb enough to pair Okafor and Horford in the same frontcourt, but I don't see it.

[TTP]

Hopefully this returns. Its absence is really killing the Celtics this season.

?

Not really, no.

His individual defensive stats are all horrible. The team has played horrible defense with him on the court. But if you say Not really, I guess thats compelling too. Just in a not really sort of way.

This is another reason why I don't think the eye test is reliable and advocate for advanced stats and further data when analyzing players, especially on defense, where people are heavily biased by subjective awards (1st team all defense) and past performance.

Avery Bradley was a very good defender for his position in 2013-14, probably around top 5 or slightly outside. He was fairly similar in 2014-15. However, he was a negative defender last season.

DRPM graded Bradley as 51/80 for SGs last season. One might think this is preposterous and evidence that RPM is unreliable. However, if you use nbawowy to look at PPP splits, the Celtics defense gave up 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Bradley was off the court (105.6 on, 101.1 points off).

[76ciology]

?

Not really, no.

His individual defensive stats are all horrible. The team has played horrible defense with him on the court. But if you say Not really, I guess thats compelling too. Just in a not really sort of way.

This is another reason why I don't think the eye test is reliable and advocate for advanced stats and further data when analyzing players, especially on defense, where people are heavily biased by subjective awards (1st team all defense) and past performance.

Avery Bradley was a very good defender for his position in 2013-14, probably around top 5 or slightly outside. He was fairly similar in 2014-15. However, he was a negative defender last season.

DRPM graded Bradley as 51/80 for SGs last season. One might think this is preposterous and evidence that RPM is unreliable. However, if you use nbawowy to look at PPP splits, the Celtics defense gave up 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Bradley was off the court (105.6 on, 101.1 points off).

Yup. I raised this issue at celtics board last season.

The pairing of him with IT hurt his defensive impact. But if you watch the games,you'll see that he's a great perimeter defender.

I could be wrong but I think analytics value deflections > lockdown D.

Well, if we value DRPM so much then Jah has higher DRPM than Towns. DBPM? Jah has much better DBPM than Porzingis. On/Off DRtg? Towns', AD's and KP's team plays best D when they are off court.

[ET Da Gawd]

Can't wait to pair these 2 together, Embiid outside Jah inside...Even nerlens coming back soon will get us in permanent big ball mode

[TTP]

Yup. I raised this issue at celtics board last season.

The pairing of him with IT hurt his defensive impact. But if you watch the games,you'll see that he's a great perimeter defender.

I could be wrong but I think analytics value deflections > lockdown D.

Why do you assume that? It likely values both similarly as they both disrupt an offensive possession without directly leading to a turnover.

[76ciology]

Yup. I raised this issue at celtics board last season.

The pairing of him with IT hurt his defensive impact. But if you watch the games,you'll see that he's a great perimeter defender.

I could be wrong but I think analytics value deflections > lockdown D.

Why do you assume that? It likely values both similarly as they both disrupt an offensive possession without directly leading to a turnover.

Covington top 3 in DRPM but opponents shoot +7% diff. Also my observation with Avery Bradley last season, after I also watched tapes to see why the negative on defensive analytics numbers.

Really just a gut feel.

[TTP]

Yup. I raised this issue at celtics board last season.

The pairing of him with IT hurt his defensive impact. But if you watch the games,you'll see that he's a great perimeter defender.

I could be wrong but I think analytics value deflections > lockdown D.

Why do you assume that? It likely values both similarly as they both disrupt an offensive possession without directly leading to a turnover.

Covington top 3 in DRPM but opponents shoot +7% diff. Also my observation with Avery Bradley last season, after I also watched tapes to see why the negative on defensive analytics numbers.

Really just a gut feel.

That doesn't necessarily indicate that it values on ball defense less. It just indicates that the rest of his defensive contributions make up for the direct FG% of his opponent.

Thabo is #1 (2.75) at the position with a ridiculous -14% differential. MKG #2 (2.26) with a -3.4%.

Regardless, that number is going to be incredibly noisy.

[Sixerscan]

Yup. I raised this issue at celtics board last season.

The pairing of him with IT hurt his defensive impact. But if you watch the games,you'll see that he's a great perimeter defender.

I could be wrong but I think analytics value deflections > lockdown D.

Why do you assume that? It likely values both similarly as they both disrupt an offensive possession without directly leading to a turnover.

Covington top 3 in DRPM but opponents shoot +7% diff. Also my observation with Avery Bradley last season, after I also watched tapes to see why the negative on defensive analytics numbers.

Really just a gut feel.

I don't believe that individual deflections or individual opponent shooting percentages are factored into rpm. It's about how better or worse the team does when a player is on the court.

Either way it's way to early for these sort of stats to be taken too seriously. There's a reason why they wait to release RPM, and honestly they should wait a month longer at least.

[Kolkmania]

?

Not really, no.

His individual defensive stats are all horrible. The team has played horrible defense with him on the court. But if you say Not really, I guess thats compelling too. Just in a not really sort of way.

This is another reason why I don't think the eye test is reliable and advocate for advanced stats and further data when analyzing players, especially on defense, where people are heavily biased by subjective awards (1st team all defense) and past performance.

Avery Bradley was a very good defender for his position in 2013-14, probably around top 5 or slightly outside. He was fairly similar in 2014-15. However, he was a negative defender last season.

DRPM graded Bradley as 51/80 for SGs last season. One might think this is preposterous and evidence that RPM is unreliable. However, if you use nbawowy to look at PPP splits, the Celtics defense gave up 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Bradley was off the court (105.6 on, 101.1 points off).

Perhaps it's because Avery Bradley is defending the opponent's best perimeter player and gets rests when they're on the bench (he even had to guard Kevin Durant the other night ). We don't know the formula behind DRPM, but maybe it takes the defensive statistics of Bradley's replacement into account. In his case Smart and Turner came of the bench, both were terrific on the defensive end last year. This would also explain the on/off splits since Smart and Turner were able to shut the opponents bench down. The entire backcourt of last year, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, individually had worse DRTG when they were on the court.

It's also weird that 75% of last year's shooting guards had a negative DRPM (this year 84%).

[Sixerscan]

His individual defensive stats are all horrible. The team has played horrible defense with him on the court. But if you say Not really, I guess thats compelling too. Just in a not really sort of way.

This is another reason why I don't think the eye test is reliable and advocate for advanced stats and further data when analyzing players, especially on defense, where people are heavily biased by subjective awards (1st team all defense) and past performance.

Avery Bradley was a very good defender for his position in 2013-14, probably around top 5 or slightly outside. He was fairly similar in 2014-15. However, he was a negative defender last season.

DRPM graded Bradley as 51/80 for SGs last season. One might think this is preposterous and evidence that RPM is unreliable. However, if you use nbawowy to look at PPP splits, the Celtics defense gave up 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Bradley was off the court (105.6 on, 101.1 points off).

Perhaps it's because Avery Bradley is defending the opponent's best perimeter player and gets rests when they're on the bench (he even had to guard Kevin Durant the other night ). We don't know the formula behind DRPM, but maybe it takes the defensive statistics of Bradley's replacement into account. In his case Smart and Turner came of the bench, both were terrific on the defensive end last year. This would also explain the on/off splits since Smart and Turner were able to shut the opponents bench down. The entire backcourt of last year, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, individually had worse DRTG when they were on the court.

It's also weird that 75% of last year's shooting guards had a negative DRPM (this year 84%).

RPM theorhetically adjusts for the quality of your back up, the quality of your backups teammates, you teammates, your opponents, your teammates opponents etc. it's not perfect.

RPM ideally should be adjusted for position and role the way similar stats in baseball do it. Maybe with player tracking that will happen one day. In the mean time, it's better just to as you said compare guys that you know play similar roles/positions rather than getting hung up on the actual number.

[TTP]

Perhaps it's because Avery Bradley is defending the opponent's best perimeter player and gets rests when they're on the bench (he even had to guard Kevin Durant the other night ). We don't know the formula behind DRPM, but maybe it takes the defensive statistics of Bradley's replacement into account. In his case Smart and Turner came of the bench, both were terrific on the defensive end last year. This would also explain the on/off splits since Smart and Turner were able to shut the opponents bench down. The entire backcourt of last year, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, individually had worse DRTG when they were on the court.

It's also weird that 75% of last year's shooting guards had a negative DRPM (this year 84%).

It doesn't factor in the contributions of replacements. It does factor in the quality of the players he faces.

75% of SGs are negative because they have less impact on overall defense than bigs. It's difficult for smalls to have positive DRPM.

[Sixerscan]

Perhaps it's because Avery Bradley is defending the opponent's best perimeter player and gets rests when they're on the bench (he even had to guard Kevin Durant the other night ). We don't know the formula behind DRPM, but maybe it takes the defensive statistics of Bradley's replacement into account. In his case Smart and Turner came of the bench, both were terrific on the defensive end last year. This would also explain the on/off splits since Smart and Turner were able to shut the opponents bench down. The entire backcourt of last year, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, individually had worse DRTG when they were on the court.

It's also weird that 75% of last year's shooting guards had a negative DRPM (this year 84%).

It doesn't factor in the contributions of replacements. It also factors in the quality of the players he faces.

75% of SGs are negative because they have less impact on overall defense than bigs. It's difficult for smalls to have positive DRPM.

That's not quite right. If it's harder for them to have a positive impact it should also be more difficult to have a negative impact.

This is also sort of a fiction because it's not like these big men would have the same positive impact if you played them on the perimeter.

[HartfordWhalers]

Bradley's guarding the same guys he always has.

And we do know how RPM is calculated for those that are interested in it. I have serious qualms with it and those who take it too serious, but lets not pretend that the raw on offs are favorable for Bradley because they aren't.

[SelfishPlayer]

This is another reason why I don't think the eye test is reliable and advocate for advanced stats and further data when analyzing players, especially on defense, where people are heavily biased by subjective awards (1st team all defense) and past performance.

Avery Bradley was a very good defender for his position in 2013-14, probably around top 5 or slightly outside. He was fairly similar in 2014-15. However, he was a negative defender last season.

DRPM graded Bradley as 51/80 for SGs last season. One might think this is preposterous and evidence that RPM is unreliable. However, if you use nbawowy to look at PPP splits, the Celtics defense gave up 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Bradley was off the court (105.6 on, 101.1 points off).

Perhaps it's because Avery Bradley is defending the opponent's best perimeter player and gets rests when they're on the bench (he even had to guard Kevin Durant the other night ). We don't know the formula behind DRPM, but maybe it takes the defensive statistics of Bradley's replacement into account. In his case Smart and Turner came of the bench, both were terrific on the defensive end last year. This would also explain the on/off splits since Smart and Turner were able to shut the opponents bench down. The entire backcourt of last year, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, individually had worse DRTG when they were on the court.

It's also weird that 75% of last year's shooting guards had a negative DRPM (this year 84%).

RPM theorhetically adjusts for the quality of your back up, the quality of your backups teammates, you teammates, your opponents, your teammates opponents etc. it's not perfect.

RPM ideally should be adjusted for position and role the way similar stats in baseball do it. Maybe with player tracking that will happen one day. In the mean time, it's better just to as you said compare guys that you know play similar roles/positions rather than getting hung up on the actual number.

Some of these advanced stats require belief and faith...

[Sixerscan]

Perhaps it's because Avery Bradley is defending the opponent's best perimeter player and gets rests when they're on the bench (he even had to guard Kevin Durant the other night ). We don't know the formula behind DRPM, but maybe it takes the defensive statistics of Bradley's replacement into account. In his case Smart and Turner came of the bench, both were terrific on the defensive end last year. This would also explain the on/off splits since Smart and Turner were able to shut the opponents bench down. The entire backcourt of last year, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, individually had worse DRTG when they were on the court.

It's also weird that 75% of last year's shooting guards had a negative DRPM (this year 84%).

RPM theorhetically adjusts for the quality of your back up, the quality of your backups teammates, you teammates, your opponents, your teammates opponents etc. it's not perfect.

RPM ideally should be adjusted for position and role the way similar stats in baseball do it. Maybe with player tracking that will happen one day. In the mean time, it's better just to as you said compare guys that you know play similar roles/positions rather than getting hung up on the actual number.

Some of these advanced stats require belief and faith...

Not sure what you mean, but they do require doing a little more than looking at the page on Espn.com. If you don't understand what they are measuring and the larger context you're going to be misled (either by thinking they are useless or that they are some sort of holy grail).

[TTP]

Perhaps it's because Avery Bradley is defending the opponent's best perimeter player and gets rests when they're on the bench (he even had to guard Kevin Durant the other night ). We don't know the formula behind DRPM, but maybe it takes the defensive statistics of Bradley's replacement into account. In his case Smart and Turner came of the bench, both were terrific on the defensive end last year. This would also explain the on/off splits since Smart and Turner were able to shut the opponents bench down. The entire backcourt of last year, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, individually had worse DRTG when they were on the court.

It's also weird that 75% of last year's shooting guards had a negative DRPM (this year 84%).

It doesn't factor in the contributions of replacements. It also factors in the quality of the players he faces.

75% of SGs are negative because they have less impact on overall defense than bigs. It's difficult for smalls to have positive DRPM.

That's not quite right. If it's harder for them to have a positive impact it should also be more difficult to have a negative impact.

This is also sort of a fiction because it's not like these big men would have the same positive impact if you played them on the perimeter.

Yeah what I said was incorrect. I should have just said that smaller players on average are worse on defense than bigger players.

[LloydFree]

Okafor really makes you appreciate the 22 minutes that Embiid plays. Whiteside shot 9 for 11 and had 7 offensive rebounds against Okafor last night.

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[Kobblehead]

That's just tragic. Good lord.

[ProcessDoctor]

Despite all the Noel crap, it's stats like those that make me want to get rid of Okafor first. It's inexcusable to have that big of a drop-off when you bring your back-ups in. Unfortunately, there are so few teams in the league who are willing to take a gamble on a player like Okafor, and rightfully so.