The (Where Ainges Fear to) Trade Thread, 2016-17 (1.0)

[Homerclease]

If the Nets pick is high, our cap room takes a hit with the new CBA. That's the big one.

Depending on the new CBA, the 2017 rookies could be left unsigned to free up a few more pennies, but last year's draft and stashes would also go up a bit over 2016 numbers.

All told, we could be ~$5m below a max. Despite what Andrew is saying above, I don't think dumping Crowder is the answer there.

Do we have hard data on what the cap holds will be for the top 5 picks next season? Sadly this doesn't amount to much more than precision guesswork on both sides of the debate without the hard data yet. We'd need to know what the cap holds for rookies will actually be and what the 2017 cap will be set at. Cave very well may be right that we'd have to move someone to bring in a max guy. If they were to move Smart as an example it would open up worlds of possibilities in the draft making point guards like Fultz and Ball prime targets

I think they were talking about 50% increases in rookie salaries, which could add about $3m in total if the Nets pick is high enough. Thought it was near double that, so maybe not a big deal. Still pretty tight in terms of max cap space.

Including Olynyk, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic and Jackson, and assuming a 3rd overall pick, I have ~$82m in salaries and cap holds for next year. That gives us only $20m in cap room next summer under an estimated $107m salary cap. Source: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16859143/nba-salary-cap-projection-2017-18-season-lower-expected

Full max is $33.5m for a KD, while a 25% max is $25.5m for a Hayward, I think? We can reach the lower number just by letting Olynyk and his $7.7m cap hold walk, but the higher number would involve some bloodletting.

At the end of the day, I think the takeaway here is that the team will not give up max or near-max cap space for role players. They've proven that for all of this rebuild, going back to passing on Omer Asik three years ago. Short of adding Cousins or Butler or someone of that nature, they are highly unlikely to add salaries that extend past this season.

Are you including Zeller in that figure as well?

[Captain_Caveman]

Do we have hard data on what the cap holds will be for the top 5 picks next season? Sadly this doesn't amount to much more than precision guesswork on both sides of the debate without the hard data yet. We'd need to know what the cap holds for rookies will actually be and what the 2017 cap will be set at. Cave very well may be right that we'd have to move someone to bring in a max guy. If they were to move Smart as an example it would open up worlds of possibilities in the draft making point guards like Fultz and Ball prime targets

I think they were talking about 50% increases in rookie salaries, which could add about $3m in total if the Nets pick is high enough. Thought it was near double that, so maybe not a big deal. Still pretty tight in terms of max cap space.

Including Olynyk, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic and Jackson, and assuming a 3rd overall pick, I have ~$82m in salaries and cap holds for next year. That gives us only $20m in cap room next summer under an estimated $107m salary cap. Source: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16859143/nba-salary-cap-projection-2017-18-season-lower-expected

Full max is $33.5m for a KD, while a 25% max is $25.5m for a Hayward, I think? We can reach the lower number just by letting Olynyk and his $7.7m cap hold walk, but the higher number would involve some bloodletting.

At the end of the day, I think the takeaway here is that the team will not give up max or near-max cap space for role players. They've proven that for all of this rebuild, going back to passing on Omer Asik three years ago. Short of adding Cousins or Butler or someone of that nature, they are highly unlikely to add salaries that extend past this season.

Are you including Zeller in that figure as well?

No Zeller, Amir, Jerebko, Young or Green.

IT/Smart/Jackson
Bradley/Rozier
Crowder/Jaylen
Horford/Yabu (with $2.4m hold)/Mickey
Olynyk (with $7.7m hold)/Zizic (with $1.8m hold)
#3 pick with $6m hold

$82m under a projected $102m cap.

Nets pick coming in lower gives us more room, as does letting Olynyk walk. Dumping guys like Mickey or Jackson does almost nothing as we'd have to replace them with ghost cap holds to get to 13 spots.

Someone can double check that if they want, haha.

[Homerclease]

I think they were talking about 50% increases in rookie salaries, which could add about $3m in total if the Nets pick is high enough. Thought it was near double that, so maybe not a big deal. Still pretty tight in terms of max cap space.

Including Olynyk, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic and Jackson, and assuming a 3rd overall pick, I have ~$82m in salaries and cap holds for next year. That gives us only $20m in cap room next summer under an estimated $107m salary cap. Source: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16859143/nba-salary-cap-projection-2017-18-season-lower-expected

Full max is $33.5m for a KD, while a 25% max is $25.5m for a Hayward, I think? We can reach the lower number just by letting Olynyk and his $7.7m cap hold walk, but the higher number would involve some bloodletting.

At the end of the day, I think the takeaway here is that the team will not give up max or near-max cap space for role players. They've proven that for all of this rebuild, going back to passing on Omer Asik three years ago. Short of adding Cousins or Butler or someone of that nature, they are highly unlikely to add salaries that extend past this season.

Are you including Zeller in that figure as well?

No Zeller, Amir, Jerebko, Young or Green.

IT/Smart/Jackson
Bradley/Rozier
Crowder/Jaylen
Horford/Yabu (with $2.4m hold)/Mickey
Olynyk (with $7.7m hold)/Zizic (with $1.8m hold)
#3 pick with $6m hold

Nets pick coming in lower gives us more room, as does letting Olynyk walk. Dumping guys like Mickey or Jackson does almost nothing as we'd have to replace them with ghost cap holds to get to 13 spots.

Someone can double check that if they want, haha.

Curious how you got to 82 million as according to bball ref we'd be down around 63 million in salary by renouncing Zeller for next year as well

Edit: ah I see now you factored in KO, can't they just pick up his option after the fact? Or would they have to release his rights to clear space? Not sure how it works exactly

[Captain_Caveman]

Are you including Zeller in that figure as well?

No Zeller, Amir, Jerebko, Young or Green.

IT/Smart/Jackson
Bradley/Rozier
Crowder/Jaylen
Horford/Yabu (with $2.4m hold)/Mickey
Olynyk (with $7.7m hold)/Zizic (with $1.8m hold)
#3 pick with $6m hold

Nets pick coming in lower gives us more room, as does letting Olynyk walk. Dumping guys like Mickey or Jackson does almost nothing as we'd have to replace them with ghost cap holds to get to 13 spots.

Someone can double check that if they want, haha.

Curious how you got to 82 million as according to bball ref we'd be down around 63 million in salary by renouncing Zeller for next year as well

Was doing quick and dirty math using:
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/boston-celtics-team-salary/

Plus:
$7.7m cap hold Olynyk
$6m 3rd overall pick
$2.4 Yabu
$1.8m Zizic

I got $81.5m the second time, but that's about the gist of it with 50% raises on rookie scale. Someone else can spreadsheet it if they want, and maybe I am not understanding something, I dunno.

[Captain_Caveman]

Edit: ah I see now you factored in KO, can't they just pick up his option after the fact? Or would they have to release his rights to clear space? Not sure how it works exactly

That's his cap hold if we want to resign him as a restricted free agent . If we waive that, we'd have to use cap room to resign him (which would be higher than $7.7m in the first year).

So basically, if we are going to add a max free agent, Kelly is the most likely one to be out of here, and that still only works for a guy like Hayward and not Blake Griffin.

[Homerclease]

Edit: ah I see now you factored in KO, can't they just pick up his option after the fact? Or would they have to release his rights to clear space? Not sure how it works exactly

That's his cap hold if we want to resign him as a restricted free agent . If we waive that, we'd have to use cap room to resign him (which would be higher than $7.7m in the first year).

So basically, if we are going to add a max free agent, Kelly is the most likely one to be out of here, and that still only works for a guy like Hayward and not Blake Griffin.

Right so KO would be out, if they stash Yabs another year, release their rights to KO they would be razor close depending on the actual cap holds and the actual 2017 cap being set. If it comes in at 107 we could be in business

[165bows]

Edit: ah I see now you factored in KO, can't they just pick up his option after the fact? Or would they have to release his rights to clear space? Not sure how it works exactly

That's his cap hold if we want to resign him as a restricted free agent . If we waive that, we'd have to use cap room to resign him (which would be higher than $7.7m in the first year).

So basically, if we are going to add a max free agent, Kelly is the most likely one to be out of here, and that still only works for a guy like Hayward and not Blake Griffin.

I think they can get close enough (ie, sign someone by stashing Yabu and releasing KO's hold) means they can leverage someone into a sign and trade if it gets that far. In other words, say "we are signing your guy, but would like to keep KO (or whoever), how about a future Clippers pick, a bunch of seconds, and your choice of a couple of mid-tier young guys out of the yabu bin to make it worth your while."

But even if not, if they are convinced Hayward or whoever is worth the money than I think viewing it as a trade of Olynyk/Yabu for Hayward is something that you just go ahead and pull the trigger for and dump those guys to make the signing happen. Now if it's better to try to wait and sign Paul George or god knows who that I get, just depends on which way they want to go.

I think the numbers are right in the ballpark, though. If anything KO's cap hold might go up by the sounds of it.

[Homerclease]

Either way it seems we all agree that the Celtics won't be taking on any future salary until these details become set in stone. Which pretty much leaves our options at Bogut for front court help and that's about it

[Dogen]

My guess he ends up in Houston.

Well, my guess is more fun

Cleveland and GSW are nightmare scenarios for the rest of the league.

Yep, if he's cleared to play, he'd be a nice fit alongside Horford. He shares an agent with AB (and Gerald Wallace) so who knows.

No team is going to take the risk of trading for Bosh, but if Miami waives him apparently they get no cap relief if he plays 25 games this year with another team.

He'd be worth a shot in Boston as a reclamation project. Still only 32. Fits a need, would be a great story, playing in Boston, heart, comeback, Lebron, Cleveland, etc, etc, etc.

But, you know Riley ain't gonna do nobody no favors ('specially Danny).

[Captain_Caveman]

Either way it seems we all agree that the Celtics won't be taking on any future salary until these details become set in stone. Which pretty much leaves our options at Bogut for front court help and that's about it

I'm not even sold on Bogut as any real upgrade, especially in our offense. Not only Amir is more mobile, more versatile and more durable, our ability to play guys like Crowder and Jerebko at PF gives us the ability to fill 48 center minutes with a combination of Olynyk/Horford/Amir/Zeller/Mickey.

That's no great shakes, but neither is Bogut.

[Banks2Pierce]

Casspi for Gerald/JYoung?

[Homerclease]

Either way it seems we all agree that the Celtics won't be taking on any future salary until these details become set in stone. Which pretty much leaves our options at Bogut for front court help and that's about it

I'm not even sold on Bogut as any real upgrade, especially in our offense. Not only Amir is more mobile, more versatile and more durable, our ability to play guys like Crowder and Jerebko at PF gives us the ability to fill 48 center minutes with a combination of Olynyk/Horford/Amir/Zeller/Mickey.

That's no great shakes, but neither is Bogut.

Well if Horford can maintain a level of play like he did vs Detroit it may be a moot point. We will win the glass more often than not if Al plays inspired ball like that. I really wish they had consolidated and moved up for Chriss

[Captain_Caveman]

Either way it seems we all agree that the Celtics won't be taking on any future salary until these details become set in stone. Which pretty much leaves our options at Bogut for front court help and that's about it

I'm not even sold on Bogut as any real upgrade, especially in our offense. Not only Amir is more mobile, more versatile and more durable, our ability to play guys like Crowder and Jerebko at PF gives us the ability to fill 48 center minutes with a combination of Olynyk/Horford/Amir/Zeller/Mickey.

That's no great shakes, but neither is Bogut.

Well if Horford can maintain a level of play like he did vs Detroit it may be a moot point. We will win the glass more often than not if Al plays inspired ball like that. I really wish they had consolidated and moved up for Chriss

I'm never a fan of trying to "outbig" bigger teams with lesser bigs.

If that makes any sense.

Just play to your strengths and don't try to be something you aren't.

[Slartibartfast]

I'm not even sold on Bogut as any real upgrade, especially in our offense. Not only Amir is more mobile, more versatile and more durable, our ability to play guys like Crowder and Jerebko at PF gives us the ability to fill 48 center minutes with a combination of Olynyk/Horford/Amir/Zeller/Mickey.

That's no great shakes, but neither is Bogut.

Well if Horford can maintain a level of play like he did vs Detroit it may be a moot point. We will win the glass more often than not if Al plays inspired ball like that. I really wish they had consolidated and moved up for Chriss

I'm never a fan of trying to "outbig" bigger teams with lesser bigs.

If that makes any sense.

Just play to your strengths and don't try to be something you aren't.

I just don't like not having a single ounce of beef on the roster. Amir is more mobile than Bogut but we've already got mobility and versatility with Al and Jerebko. And Amir is looking significantly less mobile this year - varies a lot from game to game but I'm not all the confident in him.

Bogut as the 4th big would give us a completely different dimension. Somebody to throw out there instead of Zeller or Mickey when we are trying to mix it up.

[Captain_Caveman]

Well if Horford can maintain a level of play like he did vs Detroit it may be a moot point. We will win the glass more often than not if Al plays inspired ball like that. I really wish they had consolidated and moved up for Chriss

I'm never a fan of trying to "outbig" bigger teams with lesser bigs.

If that makes any sense.

Just play to your strengths and don't try to be something you aren't.

I just don't like not having a single ounce of beef on the roster. Amir is more mobile than Bogut but we've already got mobility and versatility with Al and Jerebko. And Amir is looking significantly less mobile this year - varies a lot from game to game but I'm not all the confident in him.

Bogut as the 4th big would give us a completely different dimension. Somebody to throw out there instead of Zeller or Mickey when we are trying to mix it up.

I think there is a huge injury risk with the guy. He's failed to finish something like 6 of the last 8 seasons. Maybe we can mitigate that by waiting until the deadline, but again, not really sure how much better this dude is than Amir, if at all.

[ILC]

My guess he ends up in Houston.

Well, my guess is more fun

Cleveland and GSW are nightmare scenarios for the rest of the league.

Yep, if he's cleared to play, he'd be a nice fit alongside Horford. He shares an agent with AB (and Gerald Wallace) so who knows.

You would think Cavs and Warriors would be frontrunners, just by default.

If he's not hell bent on chasing rings I would put Chicago out there because of his friendship with Wade.

[London2Boston]

Doubt Bosh will play again. Miami aren't keeping him away for the sake of it. Too big a risk. Shame as he seems a really cool dude.

[Smitty731]

I rarely check this thread, so sorry for missing a few calls for me to check in. My bad.

Max space as of today (assuming all fully gtd deals are kept) is: $38.4 million on a $103 million cap. Definitely enough for a max offer. But that means dumping all first rounds picks (Nets this year, Yabusele and Zizic) and waiving all non-fully guaranteed guys and renouncing all FAs.

Not all of that will happen. So, pending there the cap holds end up for the Rookie scale and if they keep Olynyk or not (probably the biggest question) it has Boston teetering on the edge of max space. FWIW, I have them keeping Olynyk (by giving him a QO) and without adjusting the rookie holds, the projected space is at $23.6 million.

You can find it all here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T2Eg_zvqNqQD_5TpE4Ns6xhElatXdLpYG1roZtRLyvE/edit?usp=sharing

There is a tab called 2017 Projected Cap Space where I lay out the whole picture for Boston (and the other 29 teams too).

[Ed Pinkney]

On Bosh, I vaguely recall reading somewhere that Miami wouldn't waive him until after the playoff eligibility cut off in March. Anyone know if that is correct?

[Smitty731]

On Bosh, I vaguely recall reading somewhere that Miami wouldn't waive him until after the playoff eligibility cut off in March. Anyone know if that is correct?

Nothing official, but that is what is expected.