GT #10: Suns @ Wizards 7 PM (CSN/1500 AM)

[payitforward]

I can't believe Wall has missed 18 shots. That should never happen. Too many times he comes down and shoots without anyone else touching the ball.

These last two games it seems like Beal is actively avoiding the midrange shot. In his career he has shot the long 2s poorly and way too often. Tonight he has taken 10 3s and 11 foul shots. Can't remember seeing that before.

Tonight is how he can be worth his max deal.

He had an extremely good game, really outstanding. But it's just that -- one game. So, yes, he can be worth the max, but "can be" is a long way from actually is. I'm sure we all remember that Randy Foye once had a 29 point quarter.

[stevemcqueen1]

Not just that one game though. He's been filling it up this year and I think his numbers will continue to increase now that he's worked his way out of his slump from three point land. He's obviously gotten better. One or two seasons ago you don't dump the ball off to Beal and tell him to go and score. This year he's beating multiple defenders off the bounce. Attacking and working his way into the paint while also showing a very effective intermediate game using floaters and step backs and quick pull ups. And he's getting himself to the FT line by beating defenders to spots and winning with smart situational play.

[nate33]

Not just that one game though. He's been filling it up this year and I think his numbers will continue to increase now that he's worked his way out of his slump from three point land. He's obviously gotten better. One or two seasons ago you don't dump the ball off to Beal and tell him to go and score. This year he's beating multiple defenders off the bounce. Attacking and working his way into the paint while also showing a very effective intermediate game using floaters and step backs and quick pull ups. And he's getting himself to the FT line by beating defenders to spots and winning with smart situational play.

The biggest improvement is his improved ball-handling coupled with that hesitation move. He is using it to get into the lane consistently. It's not based on hyper athleticism or anything, it's just a really crafty move. You can tell Beal has worked very hard on it.

[tontoz]

Even with these two big games his TS and scoring rate are up only marginally from last year.

In order to make meaningful improvement he has to consistently avoid the 2 pt jumpers. We are still in SSST.

[Meliorus]

Wizards play the Spurs twice in the next 4 games. They need to take advantage of the fact that they rest players/barely beat bad teams. They are probably the easiest good team to play.

[nate33]

Even with these two big games his TS and scoring rate are up only marginally from last year.

In order to make meaningful improvement he has to consistently avoid the 2 pt jumpers. We are still in SSST.

His ORtg (which incorporates turnovers) is up big time though. After 3 consecutive seasons with an ORtg of 102 or 103 (NBA average is 106), Beal is sporting an ORtg of 113.

There are 31 players averaging 20 or more points per game. Beal ranks 16th out of the 31 in ORtg, ahead of guys like DeRozan, Love, Wiggins, Paul George, Kyrie Irving and John Wall. This is the first time in a long time that we've had a 20 PPG scorer with above-average efficiency. Obviously, it's still a small sample size, but let's not dismiss what he's done so far. His numbers are legitimately good, not just decent.

[DCZards]

A healthy Bradley Beal, who plays a sustained string of 25-30 games or more in row, can be a very, very good NBA player. A Beal that plays 10-15 games and then goes out injured for 8-10 games, as was the case last season, can't really show how good he's capable of being.

Stay healthy BB!

[tontoz]

Even with these two big games his TS and scoring rate are up only marginally from last year.

In order to make meaningful improvement he has to consistently avoid the 2 pt jumpers. We are still in SSST.

His ORtg (which incorporates turnovers) is up big time though. After 3 consecutive seasons with an ORtg of 102 or 103 (NBA average is 106), Beal is sporting an ORtg of 113.

There are 31 players averaging 20 or more points per game. Beal ranks 16th out of the 31 in ORtg, ahead of guys like DeRozan, Love, Wiggins, Paul George, Kyrie Irving and John Wall. This is the first time in a long time that we've had a 20 PPG scorer with above-average efficiency. Obviously, it's still a small sample size, but let's not dismiss what he's done so far. His numbers are legitimately good, not just decent.

I am not dismissing it. I brought up what seems to be a shift in shot selection which could obviously have a long term impact in his scoring ability.

But it's still just 10 games, and the previous 8 were not great. Old habits can be hard to break. At least it looks like he is trying to do what many of us have been advocating for years.

[DCZards]

I am not dismissing it. I brought up what seems to be a shift in shot selection which could obviously have a long term impact in his scoring ability.

But it's still just 10 games, and the previous 8 were not great. Old habits can be hard to break. At least it looks like he is trying to do what many of us have been advocating for years.

That shift in shot selection actually began last season.

[TGW]

A healthy Bradley Beal, who plays a sustained string of 25-30 games or more in row, can be a very, very good NBA player. A Beal that plays 10-15 games and then goes out injured for 8-10 games, as was the case last season, can't really show how good he's capable of being.

Stay healthy BB!

A healthy bradley beal is an average NBA player.

[Illmatic12]

A healthy Bradley Beal, who plays a sustained string of 25-30 games or more in row, can be a very, very good NBA player. A Beal that plays 10-15 games and then goes out injured for 8-10 games, as was the case last season, can't really show how good he's capable of being.

Stay healthy BB!

A healthy bradley beal is an average NBA player.

Through his first couple few nascent years in the league, sure. As he enters his prime, a healthy Beal can develop into a very good SG. Why can't he?

[tontoz]

I am not dismissing it. I brought up what seems to be a shift in shot selection which could obviously have a long term impact in his scoring ability.

But it's still just 10 games, and the previous 8 were not great. Old habits can be hard to break. At least it looks like he is trying to do what many of us have been advocating for years.

That shift in shot selection actually began last season.

Last season Beal took 4.54 shots from 10-21 feet which was only .39 less than the previous season. I wouldn't consider that very noteworthy.

http://bkref.com/tiny/sOVdZ

[stevemcqueen1]

Not just that one game though. He's been filling it up this year and I think his numbers will continue to increase now that he's worked his way out of his slump from three point land. He's obviously gotten better. One or two seasons ago you don't dump the ball off to Beal and tell him to go and score. This year he's beating multiple defenders off the bounce. Attacking and working his way into the paint while also showing a very effective intermediate game using floaters and step backs and quick pull ups. And he's getting himself to the FT line by beating defenders to spots and winning with smart situational play.

The biggest improvement is his improved ball-handling coupled with that hesitation move. He is using it to get into the lane consistently. It's not based on hyper athleticism or anything, it's just a really crafty move. You can tell Beal has worked very hard on it.

He lulls you to sleep with his ability to change speeds. A good example of that last night was that drive where he beat Booker to the rim from the perimeter. He's more explosive than he looks and he can win a foot race in the open court.

What I really liked seeing is him showing off some BBIQ this year. Last night he got a ton of junk fouls by exploiting defenders who got out of position. You need to do stuff like that to be a consistent volume scorer as a guard with average size. Also liked seeing that play where Phoenix had the ball and was starting their fast break, but he recognized his defender had fallen down and that Otto was going to get the TO and come up with possession and immediately faded out to the corner for Otto to hit him for an open three. Just good, ruthless basketball. I think some Paul Pierce rubbed off on him.

A Beal that can stay dialed in like that with his decision making and play with anticipation is a dangerous offensive weapon because he shoots so well he can really punish defenders for mistakes.

I think one of the key numbers to watch moving forward is his FT%. He's almost ten points better than last year. Is this sustainable?

[nate33]

I am not dismissing it. I brought up what seems to be a shift in shot selection which could obviously have a long term impact in his scoring ability.

But it's still just 10 games, and the previous 8 were not great. Old habits can be hard to break. At least it looks like he is trying to do what many of us have been advocating for years.

That shift in shot selection actually began last season.

Last season Beal took 4.54 shots from 10-21 feet which was only .39 less than the previous season. I wouldn't consider that very noteworthy.

http://bkref.com/tiny/sOVdZ

Yeah, but that's in the context of more overall shots taken. You need to look at shot distribution percentages, not just raw shots.

Two years ago, 40.3% of his FGA's were from 10-21 feet
Last year, 31.8% of his FGA's were from 10-21 feet
This year, 25.7% of his FGA's were from 10-21 feet

And the improvement is actually even better than that if you consider his free throw attempts to be mostly generated from shots at the rim. They don't show up as "at rim" attempts in his FGA distribution chart.

[tontoz]

That shift in shot selection actually began last season.

Last season Beal took 4.54 shots from 10-21 feet which was only .39 less than the previous season. I wouldn't consider that very noteworthy.

http://bkref.com/tiny/sOVdZ

Yeah, but that's in the context of more overall shots taken. You need to look at shot distribution percentages, not just raw shots.

Two years ago, 40.3% of his FGA's were from 10-21 feet
Last year, 31.8% of his FGA's were from 10-21 feet
This year, 25.7% of his FGA's were from 10-21 feet

And the improvement is actually even better than that if you consider his free throw attempts to be mostly generated from shots at the rim. They don't show up as "at rim" attempts in his FGA distribution chart.

The last point about free throws is certainly noteworthy but the percentage difference from the last couple of years amount to maybe one shot per game which isn't really enough to move the needle. The fact that last year was a contract year would lead me to expect a much more dramatic difference.

But in the last two games the difference was pretty dramatic. There were several times that he would have ordinarily pulled up but instead kept going to the basket. He also got run off the 3 pt line a few times but instead of driving forward he drove sideways and shot a 3 anyway. Hopefully it continues.

[payitforward]

(Beal's) ORtg (which incorporates turnovers) is up big time. After 3 consecutive seasons with an ORtg of 102 or 103 (NBA average is 106), Beal is sporting an ORtg of 113.

There are 31 players averaging 20 or more points per game. Beal ranks 16th out of the 31 in ORtg, ahead of guys like DeRozan, Love, Wiggins, Paul George, Kyrie Irving and John Wall. This is the first time in a long time that we've had a 20 PPG scorer with above-average efficiency. Obviously, it's still a small sample size, but let's not dismiss what he's done so far. His numbers are legitimately good, not just decent.

It's not just a small sample size, nate. Brad has played 329 minutes so far this season. Over 12% of those minutes were played last night -- in a game the like of which Brad has posted perhaps 3 or 4 times, if that many (indeed, if ever), in over 8400 NBA minutes.

I'm pretty sure that Brad's game last night, both total production and efficiency, would have been in the top 10% of games played by Michael Jordan. Brad has played 10 games this year. I'm sure you see my point.

His current Ortg, in other words, tells us nothing. It certainly doesn't warrant concluding that in Beal we now have "a 20 PPG scorer with above average efficiency."

Of course, Brad has had many other terrific games in his career. The above point isn't about Brad in particular; it would be the same no matter who the player was. This is a case in which the numbers hide reality rather than giving us insight into it.

If Brad keeps having good games, that'll show that he's become a better player -- for sure. But, again, that's not a fact about Bradley Beal, is it? Substitute any other name, and it's just as true.

[nate33]

(Beal's) ORtg (which incorporates turnovers) is up big time. After 3 consecutive seasons with an ORtg of 102 or 103 (NBA average is 106), Beal is sporting an ORtg of 113.

There are 31 players averaging 20 or more points per game. Beal ranks 16th out of the 31 in ORtg, ahead of guys like DeRozan, Love, Wiggins, Paul George, Kyrie Irving and John Wall. This is the first time in a long time that we've had a 20 PPG scorer with above-average efficiency. Obviously, it's still a small sample size, but let's not dismiss what he's done so far. His numbers are legitimately good, not just decent.

It's not just a small sample size, nate. Brad has played 329 minutes so far this season. Over 12% of those minutes were played last night -- in a game the like of which Brad has posted perhaps 3 or 4 times, if that many (indeed, if ever), in over 8400 NBA minutes.

I'm pretty sure that Brad's game last night, both total production and efficiency, would have been in the top 10% of games played by Michael Jordan. Brad has played 10 games this year. I'm sure you see my point.

His current Ortg, in other words, tells us nothing. It certainly doesn't warrant concluding that in Beal we now have "a 20 PPG scorer with above average efficiency."

Of course, Brad has had many other terrific games in his career. The above point isn't about Brad in particular; it would be the same no matter who the player was. This is a case in which the numbers hide reality rather than giving us insight into it.

If Brad keeps having good games, that'll show that he's become a better player -- for sure. But, again, that's not a fact about Bradley Beal, is it? Substitute any other name, and it's just as true.

No disagreement. 10 games does not a season make. My post was in response to tontoz's comment that Beal's efficiency was nothing to be impressed by. I just put it into context. The last 329 minutes of Beal's career have been legitimately good, not just okay.