2017 MLB Draft

[Quake Griffin]

I've been looking at the mocks and some prospects. There's too many for me to narrow it down effectively at this point but I know Ranma probably has.

Apparently this draft is supposed to be stacked.....

We have the pitching talent. Screw BPA. Go BPPA. Best Position Player Available. We need bats/ players/ quality defenders in this farm.

Should we let Turner and Jansen turn into compensation picks?
Reports are that we will go after Aroldis. That makes Jansen expendable and opens us up for a compensatory pick.....it is over my objection to a guy like Aroldis and his character but let's keep this at baseball before I get hot.

[Ranma]

I haven't looked at the prospects in detail yet since I'll wait for Jonathan Mayo, Hudson Belinski, and others to cue me when to start with their respective increased activity in prospect discussions. However, I am aware of quite a few prospects based on looking ahead to future classes during last year's draft. SS/RHP Hunter Greene looks like he'll be the top overall pick at the moment, but as last year proved, things can change. C J.J. Schwarz was once thought to be the #1 overall prospect in this class but that has since faded. RHP Tanner Houck is another impressively big arm and there are names like RHP Hagen Danner, RHP Alex Scherff, SS Mark Vientos, RHP Hans Crouse, and C/1B K.J. Harrison (who Neddy is aware of). All of them are hot names but also out of reach with our anticipated draft position unless they fall down the draft board due to signability concerns. The name I am focused on is RHP Tristan Beck, whom I wanted to draft out of high school in 2015 but he had a hard Stanford commitment. He is unexpectedly in this draft class due to some technicality I forgot about but he's also projected to be out of reach for the Dodgers.

I don't know about the depth of this draft class just yet but I do like the talent atop the current rankings better than last year's crop. To be honest, I'm growing concerned that we won't do very well in the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft. I wouldn't sacrifice either Jansen or Turner for a draft pick and we may lose our own selection if we sign a free agent like Cespedes (hopefully not). The silver lining is that we shouldn't be proactively targeting catchers and college arms to fill out our depth, but it remains to be seen what Gasparino will do. Plus, I don't think we'll have much in the way of ammunition in terms of high draft picks to make the splash I want to in going after high potential prospects.

We'll see how things play out and I'll certainly post profiles of intriguing prospects as I come across them. Thanks for starting this thread, Quake.

[Neddy]

I have been hoping to see Tristan Lanier, a catcher for Silverton High in Oregon to be scouted nationally but didn't happen. great make up, great work ethic, high ceiling with unhatched plenty of potential. kid is skinny and still have ways to go to fill up in his wiry frame but he has his eyes set on becoming a fireman. trying to have him go play JC ball as some other local kids in the past have been drafted out of the local JC nearby. wonder if any scouts ever saw his games. if he is a late late first rounder, I would still pay attention to him.

[Ranma]

I'm surprised to see Alex Scherff right in the mix for our projected first-round pick when you factor in college prospects aren't included in the list referenced below. Even if things tend to change in the MLB draft, I consider Hunter Greene to practically be a lock for the 1st overall selection. Belinsky has also been high on Tristan Beck like I have been so it's not surprising to see him be considered among the top 5 pitching prospects in this class. I'm taken aback to find Hagen Danner ranked low enough where we might get him with one of our compensatory picks. I wonder what his story is right now?

I don't know much about either Tanner Burns or Matt Tabor, but I've seen them mentioned previously in early looks at the 2017 draft class, so it's a little odd to find them both ranked in the 50's of this prep class. Cole Turney and Jake Eder are names I've seen mentioned more recently but they seem to be going in opposite directions based on Belinsky's rankings. Turney seems to be on a downward trend while Eder has helium in him in making upward progress. However, an intriguing new name that caught my eye is Mitchell Stone. He's listed at 6'9", 254 lbs. and Belinsky ranks him 22nd overall in the prep class as a LHP.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Ranma]

Before his departure, Kiley McDaniel provided a very early look at the 2017 class in an article last year, which I've taken excerpts of to note particular college and high school players below. He also provided is unfinished database of prospects with preliminary rankings of prospects for the 2017 draft class, which also has the option to look at those for his 2015, 2016, and 2018 rankings. Belinsky also provides a top 10 list of prospects to watch in his partial but lengthy article before the paid subscription portion is hidden behind a paywall.

Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs (4/27/15)

1. J.J. Schwarz, C, Florida: Schwarz was a 2nd round talent last year and it was a surprise that no one met his price. He’s made the most of his freshman year, nearly leading the country in homers (.290/.362/.617 with 13 bombs) and showing more hit tool than most expected from him this year. He has to tools to stick behind the plate but still needs a little work, while the bat and above average raw power are enough to play almost anywhere.
...

3. K.J. Harrison, C, Oregon State: Harrison was another Hawaiian prep that stood out last summer along with Kodi Medieros but Harrison has taken a step forward with the bat this year. He hasn’t caught much but showed the tools to stick behind the plate in 2014; his power is now above average and he’s making more contact as well.
...

6. Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri: Houck popped up last spring as a projection arm in the Midwest and took another step forward this spring. He’s 6’5/200, sits 90-93 and hits 95 mph with solid average stuff and command, with more stuff coming.
...

10. Cobi Johnson, RHP, Florida State: Johnson’s dad is the Blue Jays’ roving pitching coordinator and that helps explain his feel for pitching. Johnson is a projectable 6’4/190 with three pitches that flash above average and some feel to pitch
...

1. Mark Vientos (17.5), SS, Flanagan HS (FL), Miami (FL) commit: Vientos is aged like a 2018 prospect but even if he was a year older, he may still be the top player in this class. He’s a 6’3/170 shortstop with a chance to stick at the position and a broad base of precocious skills that led one scout to mention Manny Machado. Vientos turned 15 in late December and has to be considered alongside 2016-eligible Venezuelans SS Kevin Maitan and C Abraham Gutierrez as the top players in the world at that age.

2. Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA), UCLA commit: Greene has been a buzz name this spring after impressing at the 16U Team USA trials. I haven’t seen him yet, but Green is at least 6’2, was described as uber-athletic and already sits 90-93 mph. Greene also goes to the same high school as Giancarlo Stanton.

3. Hagen Danner (18.7), RHP, Huntington Beach HS (CA), UCLA commit: Danner is close to filled-out at 6’1/185, but he already sits in the low-90’s, flashes an above average curveball and an average changeup. 5/26/15 UPDATE: The velo was even better in a playoff game against likely 2015 1st rounder C Chris Betts, sitting 92-94 and hitting 96 mph.
...

8. Hans Crouse (18.7), RHP, Dana Hills HS (CA), No commit: Crouse is 6’4/170 and has already hit 95 mph. Everything else is a little rough, but he’s 16, so this is a pretty good start.

2016/2017 MLB Draft Rankings: Ridiculously Early Edition


Hudson Belinsky, Baseball America (6/13/16)

After a down year in Southern California in 2016, the Golden State shows plenty of promise for 2017. There are several intriguing middle infield prospects. Royce Lewis, Jacob Amaya and Nick Allen have developed some track record. Lewis plays for JSerra Catholic (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.), and participated in the 2015 National High School Invitational and the 2016 Boras Classic. Amaya showed well at the 2015 Tournament of Stars, and Allen performed at the 2015 WWBA Championship.

There’s also a deep group of prep arms in California. Hans Crouse is a righthander with a fast arm. Kyle Hurt has an physical frame and has shown flashes with three pitches. Huntington Beach teammates Nicholas Pratto and Hagen Danner both have extensive track record in front of scouts and they are both two-way prospects.

Perhaps the most intriguing Californian is Hunter Greene, a shortstop/righthanded pitcher at Notre Dame High (Sherman Oaks, Calif.). Greene has experience playing for USA Baseball’s 18U National Team, and scouts saw him face Blake Rutherford this spring. Greene has a high ceiling as a shortstop and as a pitcher, showing plus arm strength and bat speed.
...

Here is a list of 10 prospects that have the potential to fit at the top of this class, in no particular order:

2017 Draft Watch List


I'm quite surprised to see J.J. Schwarz not on Belinsky's early watch list of the top 10 prospects for 2017. I'm even more surprised to see Tristan Beck's name included for consideration for this class since he'll be a sophomore at Stanford as a current 19-year-old and pulled out of the draft last year.

Belinsky clarified why that is in his tweet below as he apparently has a late birthday with respect to eligibility. I mentioned before how I wanted to pursue Beck in the 2015 draft, so if he's available for 2017, he's already one of my prime targets. He still needs to polish up his mechanics and physically mature in filling out his thin frame, but the kid has projectable talent with a 4-pitch repertoire and pitchability. Before his withdrawal from the 2015 draft, he was thought of as a possible late-1st-round selection supposedly at 28th overall as a prep RHP. I've also posted his MLB 2015 Draft video profile below for reference.

Read on Twitter

2015 Draft: Tristan Beck, P 04/23/15 | 00:01:03
Tristan Beck can be absolutely dominant from the windup, but does struggle mechanically out of the stretch

Anyway, here's a name to keep an eye on for the 2017 draft class even though it is unlikely that we'll have a chance at him: Alex Scherff...

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Ranma]

Apparently this draft is supposed to be stacked.....

We have the pitching talent. Screw BPA. Go BPPA. Best Position Player Available. We need bats/ players/ quality defenders in this farm.

While I share your sentiment of wanting more high-level position prospects in our system, I don't want to do that by sacrificing opportunities for getting the best overall prospects with higher upside, especially since we're actually in need of elite young arms in your development pipeline right now with the graduations of Urias and De Leon. Besides, talented young pitchers under team control are also the most valuable and movable commodity in terms of being trade assets. People are always asking for Urias and De Leon. We traded 3 pitching prospects to rent Rich Hill and Josh Reddick.

If Mark Vientos were to somehow fall to us, then I'd give him consideration given that I've heard comparisons to Manny Machado and Kevin Maitan as a young talented SS prospect. However, with the strength of this class being college pitching, I think we have an opportunity to infuse our farm with high-upside prep pitching talent. Obviously, there's plenty of time for the draft board to work itself out given that things will undoubtedly be in constant flux from now until the official draft proceedings, but I'm already crafting a possible strategy to get at least a couple of pitchers with our first-round selection(s). It remains to be seen if we'll have 3 first-round picks after the dust settles from free agency, but I'll fantasize about that for now.

I'm hoping Tristan Beck remains a hard-sign prospect with his years left of college eligibility and commitment to Stanford with a high asking price, but even then the Yankees aren't shy to spend money and they're drafting ahead of us. Alex Scherff is a prospect pinging constantly and loudly on my radar. With all due respect, I'm not going to settle for a Gavin Lux as our top draft choice in the 1st round for 2017. We need to swing big in the early rounds and take the best player available regardless of position. Going with a conservative approach much like what I've seen from Gasparino has only hurt us in subsequent drafts even before Gasparino himself took over leading our drafts. However, I want to restate that I think his approach is actually great for the lower rounds of the draft-selection process. The following is an example of how settling for perceived safer prospects in the early rounds can sacrifice possibly bigger gains and even carry over as a handicap in future drafts with little payoff.

Apparently, J.J. Schwarz was projected as a second-round talent in the 2014 draft, but wasn't taken until the 17th round by Milwaukee; the Brewers also selected my boy Tristan Beck in the 34th round in 2016. The Dodgers took Alex Verdugo in the 2nd round in 2014, so I see why they passed on Schwarz at that point, but why didn't we nab him in the 3rd round or the 4th over the likes of John Richy and Jeff Brigham, respectively? There were plenty of slots to save money in the first 10 rounds to pay Schwarz over slot with second-round type of money. Yes, I realize that the slot money dwindles for each round and that we actually came away with Grant Holmes, Verdugo, and Brock Stewart from those selections. I'll even include Jared Walker and Trevor Oaks as reasonable choices.

Maybe Schwarz was seeking first-round money but he was a prep prospect that year and certainly not among the most notable names of that class, so that his doubtful. Kyle Schwarber and Max Pentecost were easily ranked well above him and they were the only catchers taken in the 1st round while Blake Anderson and Chase Vallot were taken in Competitive Balance Round A with Aramis Garcia the only backstop taken in the 2nd round.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have anticipated a need for a catcher at the time and Schwarz was apparently on the scouting radar as Kiley McDaniel projected him as a second-round talent. I mean there have been notable runs on catchers early in the 2015 and 2016 drafts. Had we selected and signed Schwarz, we wouldn't have had the need to take Will Smith in the 1st round of this past 2016 draft and could have used that pick instead on Nolan Jones, Alec Hansen, or Buddy Reed. Any of those 3 would be among our top 30 prospects in the system right now as either Jones or Reed would have added to our positional-prospect depth while Hansen's upside has him as a top-of-the-rotation possibility down the line. Richy and Brigham may have been decent prospects in their own right at the time of their respective selections but neither wowed me back then nor have they cracked our current top 30 prospects despite the recent depletion in talent.

Basically, we missed out on an opportunity to not only draft a valuable catching prospect with high upside who should still warrant consideration as a high 2017 draft pick, but we also lost out of adding more high-upside talent in the most recent draft for the sake of a relief pitcher who may or may not make it to the majors. The bottom line is that we chose to go with John Richy and subsequently Will Smith over the very likely chance of having J.J. Schwarz and Nolan Jones.

[Quake Griffin]

Apparently this draft is supposed to be stacked.....

We have the pitching talent. Screw BPA. Go BPPA. Best Position Player Available. We need bats/ players/ quality defenders in this farm.

While I share your sentiment of wanting more high-level position prospects in our system, I don't want to do that by sacrificing opportunities for getting the best overall prospects with higher upside, especially since we're actually in need of elite young arms in your development pipeline right now with the graduations of Urias and De Leon. Besides, talented young pitchers under team control are also the most valuable and movable commodity in terms of being trade assets. People are always asking for Urias and De Leon. We traded 3 pitching prospects to rent Rich Hill and Josh Reddick.

If Mark Vientos were to somehow fall to us, then I'd give him consideration given that I've heard comparisons to Manny Machado and Kevin Maitan as a young talented SS prospect. However, with the strength of this class being college pitching, I think we have an opportunity to infuse our farm with high-upside prep pitching talent. Obviously, there's plenty of time for the draft board to work itself out given that things will undoubtedly be in constant flux from now until the official draft proceedings, but I'm already crafting a possible strategy to get at least a couple of pitchers with our first-round selection(s). It remains to be seen if we'll have 3 first-round picks after the dust settles from free agency, but I'll fantasize about that for now.

I'm hoping Tristan Beck remains a hard-sign prospect with his years left of college eligibility and commitment to Stanford with a high asking price, but even then the Yankees aren't shy to spend money and they're drafting ahead of us. Alex Scherff is a prospect pinging constantly and loudly on my radar. With all due respect, I'm not going to settle for a Gavin Lux as our top draft choice in the 1st round for 2017. We need to swing big in the early rounds and take the best player available regardless of position. Going with a conservative approach much like what I've seen from Gasparino has only hurt us in subsequent drafts even before Gasparino himself took over leading our drafts. However, I want to restate that I think his approach is actually great for the lower rounds of the draft-selection process. The following is an example of how settling for perceived safer prospects in the early rounds can sacrifice possibly bigger gains and even carry over as a handicap in future drafts with little payoff.

Apparently, J.J. Schwarz was projected as a second-round talent in the 2014 draft, but wasn't taken until the 17th round by Milwaukee; the Brewers also selected my boy Tristan Beck in the 34th round in 2016. The Dodgers took Alex Verdugo in the 2nd round in 2014, so I see why they passed on Schwarz at that point, but why didn't we nab him in the 3rd round or the 4th over the likes of John Richy and Jeff Brigham, respectively? There were plenty of slots to save money in the first 10 rounds to pay Schwarz over slot with second-round type of money. Yes, I realize that the slot money dwindles for each round and that we actually came away with Grant Holmes, Verdugo, and Brock Stewart from those selections. I'll even include Jared Walker and Trevor Oaks as reasonable choices.

Maybe Schwarz was seeking first-round money but he was a prep prospect that year and certainly not among the most notable names of that class, so that his doubtful. Kyle Schwarber and Max Pentecost were easily ranked well above him and they were the only catchers taken in the 1st round while Blake Anderson and Chase Vallot were taken in Competitive Balance Round A with Aramis Garcia the only backstop taken in the 2nd round.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have anticipated a need for a catcher at the time and Schwarz was apparently on the scouting radar as Kiley McDaniel projected him as a second-round talent. I mean there have been notable runs on catchers early in the 2015 and 2016 drafts. Had we selected and signed Schwarz, we wouldn't have had the need to take Will Smith in the 1st round of this past 2016 draft and could have used that pick instead on Nolan Jones, Alec Hansen, or Buddy Reed. Any of those 3 would be among our top 30 prospects in the system right now as either Jones or Reed would have added to our positional-prospect depth while Hansen's upside has him as a top-of-the-rotation possibility down the line. Richy and Brigham may have been decent prospects in their own right at the time of their respective selections but neither wowed me back then nor have they cracked our current top 30 prospects despite the recent depletion in talent.

Basically, we missed out on an opportunity to not only draft a valuable catching prospect with high upside who should still warrant consideration as a high 2017 draft pick, but we also lost out of adding more high-upside talent in the most recent draft for the sake of a relief pitcher who may or may not make it to the majors. The bottom line is that we chose to go with John Richy and subsequently Will Smith over the very likely chance of having J.J. Schwarz and Nolan Jones.

Why are we worried about whether they're movable?
Isn't the objective of building from within to feed our major league roster with talent we have developed with movable players being just a side benefit?

And how are we in need of elite young arms more so than position players?
We have 2 elite arms at the major league level. We have another good arm up at the major league level. We have Yadier (elite) down under and we have Walker Buehler who was viewed as elite before his senior season (brb needed TJS probably being the reason) down under.

[Neddy]

Apparently this draft is supposed to be stacked.....

We have the pitching talent. Screw BPA. Go BPPA. Best Position Player Available. We need bats/ players/ quality defenders in this farm.

While I share your sentiment of wanting more high-level position prospects in our system, I don't want to do that by sacrificing opportunities for getting the best overall prospects with higher upside, especially since we're actually in need of elite young arms in your development pipeline right now with the graduations of Urias and De Leon. Besides, talented young pitchers under team control are also the most valuable and movable commodity in terms of being trade assets. People are always asking for Urias and De Leon. We traded 3 pitching prospects to rent Rich Hill and Josh Reddick.

If Mark Vientos were to somehow fall to us, then I'd give him consideration given that I've heard comparisons to Manny Machado and Kevin Maitan as a young talented SS prospect. However, with the strength of this class being college pitching, I think we have an opportunity to infuse our farm with high-upside prep pitching talent. Obviously, there's plenty of time for the draft board to work itself out given that things will undoubtedly be in constant flux from now until the official draft proceedings, but I'm already crafting a possible strategy to get at least a couple of pitchers with our first-round selection(s). It remains to be seen if we'll have 3 first-round picks after the dust settles from free agency, but I'll fantasize about that for now.

I'm hoping Tristan Beck remains a hard-sign prospect with his years left of college eligibility and commitment to Stanford with a high asking price, but even then the Yankees aren't shy to spend money and they're drafting ahead of us. Alex Scherff is a prospect pinging constantly and loudly on my radar. With all due respect, I'm not going to settle for a Gavin Lux as our top draft choice in the 1st round for 2017. We need to swing big in the early rounds and take the best player available regardless of position. Going with a conservative approach much like what I've seen from Gasparino has only hurt us in subsequent drafts even before Gasparino himself took over leading our drafts. However, I want to restate that I think his approach is actually great for the lower rounds of the draft-selection process. The following is an example of how settling for perceived safer prospects in the early rounds can sacrifice possibly bigger gains and even carry over as a handicap in future drafts with little payoff.

Apparently, J.J. Schwarz was projected as a second-round talent in the 2014 draft, but wasn't taken until the 17th round by Milwaukee; the Brewers also selected my boy Tristan Beck in the 34th round in 2016. The Dodgers took Alex Verdugo in the 2nd round in 2014, so I see why they passed on Schwarz at that point, but why didn't we nab him in the 3rd round or the 4th over the likes of John Richy and Jeff Brigham, respectively? There were plenty of slots to save money in the first 10 rounds to pay Schwarz over slot with second-round type of money. Yes, I realize that the slot money dwindles for each round and that we actually came away with Grant Holmes, Verdugo, and Brock Stewart from those selections. I'll even include Jared Walker and Trevor Oaks as reasonable choices.

Maybe Schwarz was seeking first-round money but he was a prep prospect that year and certainly not among the most notable names of that class, so that his doubtful. Kyle Schwarber and Max Pentecost were easily ranked well above him and they were the only catchers taken in the 1st round while Blake Anderson and Chase Vallot were taken in Competitive Balance Round A with Aramis Garcia the only backstop taken in the 2nd round.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have anticipated a need for a catcher at the time and Schwarz was apparently on the scouting radar as Kiley McDaniel projected him as a second-round talent. I mean there have been notable runs on catchers early in the 2015 and 2016 drafts. Had we selected and signed Schwarz, we wouldn't have had the need to take Will Smith in the 1st round of this past 2016 draft and could have used that pick instead on Nolan Jones, Alec Hansen, or Buddy Reed. Any of those 3 would be among our top 30 prospects in the system right now as either Jones or Reed would have added to our positional-prospect depth while Hansen's upside has him as a top-of-the-rotation possibility down the line. Richy and Brigham may have been decent prospects in their own right at the time of their respective selections but neither wowed me back then nor have they cracked our current top 30 prospects despite the recent depletion in talent.

Basically, we missed out on an opportunity to not only draft a valuable catching prospect with high upside who should still warrant consideration as a high 2017 draft pick, but we also lost out of adding more high-upside talent in the most recent draft for the sake of a relief pitcher who may or may not make it to the majors. The bottom line is that we chose to go with John Richy and subsequently Will Smith over the very likely chance of having J.J. Schwarz and Nolan Jones.

Why are we worried about whether they're movable?
Isn't the objective of building from within to feed our major league roster with talent we have developed with movable players being just a side benefit?

And how are we in need of elite young arms more so than position players?
We have 2 elite arms at the major league level. We have another good arm up at the major league level. We have Yadier (elite) down under and we have Walker Buehler who was viewed as elite before his senior season (brb needed TJS probably being the reason) down under.

I have no idea if the game system still offers the same method as I have not played any madden in a decade or longer, but remember when the madden simulation would offer ratings in the draft? if you have 98, 97, 94 and 92 rated pitchers(say quarterback in the game) ahead of a position player, would you really skip them to draft a 81 rated WR? I would rather draft the 98 rated QB and trade for a 91 rated WR prospect. same analogy can be said here. if the draft offers a ton of quality pitching, you take the BPA and if it happens to be pitching for the first 5 rounds, so be it.

and yeah, you can't never have too much pitching. just not possible. elite pitching in the minors through the pipeline doesn't necessarily translate into an elite major league pitchers either. gotta stack them up to make sure. any surplus who loses out becomes a great trade commodity as Ranma said, but less than BPA position player prospect who doesn't pan out, won't get the same second look in the trade market as a once highly regarded pitching prospect. Zach Lee is a good example. he had no value, and ran out of options with us. he was contemplating going back to college to be a QB. and we got a ML experienced AAA star SS who was under performing in the majors in very limited chances in Taylor. I would rate Lee at 67 and Taylor at 75... but still we came on top with this deal.

maybe a bad example, I dunno, I am hung over with Tryptophan and Coors light at this point.

[Quake Griffin]

While I share your sentiment of wanting more high-level position prospects in our system, I don't want to do that by sacrificing opportunities for getting the best overall prospects with higher upside, especially since we're actually in need of elite young arms in your development pipeline right now with the graduations of Urias and De Leon. Besides, talented young pitchers under team control are also the most valuable and movable commodity in terms of being trade assets. People are always asking for Urias and De Leon. We traded 3 pitching prospects to rent Rich Hill and Josh Reddick.

If Mark Vientos were to somehow fall to us, then I'd give him consideration given that I've heard comparisons to Manny Machado and Kevin Maitan as a young talented SS prospect. However, with the strength of this class being college pitching, I think we have an opportunity to infuse our farm with high-upside prep pitching talent. Obviously, there's plenty of time for the draft board to work itself out given that things will undoubtedly be in constant flux from now until the official draft proceedings, but I'm already crafting a possible strategy to get at least a couple of pitchers with our first-round selection(s). It remains to be seen if we'll have 3 first-round picks after the dust settles from free agency, but I'll fantasize about that for now.

I'm hoping Tristan Beck remains a hard-sign prospect with his years left of college eligibility and commitment to Stanford with a high asking price, but even then the Yankees aren't shy to spend money and they're drafting ahead of us. Alex Scherff is a prospect pinging constantly and loudly on my radar. With all due respect, I'm not going to settle for a Gavin Lux as our top draft choice in the 1st round for 2017. We need to swing big in the early rounds and take the best player available regardless of position. Going with a conservative approach much like what I've seen from Gasparino has only hurt us in subsequent drafts even before Gasparino himself took over leading our drafts. However, I want to restate that I think his approach is actually great for the lower rounds of the draft-selection process. The following is an example of how settling for perceived safer prospects in the early rounds can sacrifice possibly bigger gains and even carry over as a handicap in future drafts with little payoff.

Apparently, J.J. Schwarz was projected as a second-round talent in the 2014 draft, but wasn't taken until the 17th round by Milwaukee; the Brewers also selected my boy Tristan Beck in the 34th round in 2016. The Dodgers took Alex Verdugo in the 2nd round in 2014, so I see why they passed on Schwarz at that point, but why didn't we nab him in the 3rd round or the 4th over the likes of John Richy and Jeff Brigham, respectively? There were plenty of slots to save money in the first 10 rounds to pay Schwarz over slot with second-round type of money. Yes, I realize that the slot money dwindles for each round and that we actually came away with Grant Holmes, Verdugo, and Brock Stewart from those selections. I'll even include Jared Walker and Trevor Oaks as reasonable choices.

Maybe Schwarz was seeking first-round money but he was a prep prospect that year and certainly not among the most notable names of that class, so that his doubtful. Kyle Schwarber and Max Pentecost were easily ranked well above him and they were the only catchers taken in the 1st round while Blake Anderson and Chase Vallot were taken in Competitive Balance Round A with Aramis Garcia the only backstop taken in the 2nd round.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have anticipated a need for a catcher at the time and Schwarz was apparently on the scouting radar as Kiley McDaniel projected him as a second-round talent. I mean there have been notable runs on catchers early in the 2015 and 2016 drafts. Had we selected and signed Schwarz, we wouldn't have had the need to take Will Smith in the 1st round of this past 2016 draft and could have used that pick instead on Nolan Jones, Alec Hansen, or Buddy Reed. Any of those 3 would be among our top 30 prospects in the system right now as either Jones or Reed would have added to our positional-prospect depth while Hansen's upside has him as a top-of-the-rotation possibility down the line. Richy and Brigham may have been decent prospects in their own right at the time of their respective selections but neither wowed me back then nor have they cracked our current top 30 prospects despite the recent depletion in talent.

Basically, we missed out on an opportunity to not only draft a valuable catching prospect with high upside who should still warrant consideration as a high 2017 draft pick, but we also lost out of adding more high-upside talent in the most recent draft for the sake of a relief pitcher who may or may not make it to the majors. The bottom line is that we chose to go with John Richy and subsequently Will Smith over the very likely chance of having J.J. Schwarz and Nolan Jones.

Why are we worried about whether they're movable?
Isn't the objective of building from within to feed our major league roster with talent we have developed with movable players being just a side benefit?

And how are we in need of elite young arms more so than position players?
We have 2 elite arms at the major league level. We have another good arm up at the major league level. We have Yadier (elite) down under and we have Walker Buehler who was viewed as elite before his senior season (brb needed TJS probably being the reason) down under.

I have no idea if the game system still offers the same method as I have not played any madden in a decade or longer, but remember when the madden simulation would offer ratings in the draft? if you have 98, 97, 94 and 92 rated pitchers(say quarterback in the game) ahead of a position player, would you really skip them to draft a 81 rated WR? I would rather draft the 98 rated QB and trade for a 91 rated WR prospect. same analogy can be said here. if the draft offers a ton of quality pitching, you take the BPA and if it happens to be pitching for the first 5 rounds, so be it.

and yeah, you can't never have too much pitching. just not possible. elite pitching in the minors through the pipeline doesn't necessarily translate into an elite major league pitchers either. gotta stack them up to make sure. any surplus who loses out becomes a great trade commodity as Ranma said, but less than BPA position player prospect who doesn't pan out, won't get the same second look in the trade market as a once highly regarded pitching prospect. Zach Lee is a good example. he had no value, and ran out of options with us. he was contemplating going back to college to be a QB. and we got a ML experienced AAA star SS who was under performing in the majors in very limited chances in Taylor. I would rate Lee at 67 and Taylor at 75... but still we came on top with this deal.

maybe a bad example, I dunno, I am hung over with Tryptophan and Coors light at this point.

Your example between a 90+ and an 81 is extreme and make the answer obvious. If the circumstances are less obvious, I want the position player.

In 2009, I'm sure Trout looked like the 80 something to Zack Wheeler's 90 something...(side note: I've been a fan of dealing for Wheeler for over a year now when the Mets almost dealt him to Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez.)

I'm looking for a Trout...not another Kershaw....and I'd rather shoot for the moon (Trout) and land on the stars (Stephen Piscotty, Jackie Bradley, Nolan Arenado) than shoot for Kershaw and land on a Marcus Stroman.

Seager was the 1st position player we took with a 1st round pick since Blake Dewitt in 2004. I mean, sure you can never have enough pitching....but if you draft that way for over a decade, get used to old geriatric guys like Brandon Phillips coming up in our winter discussions.

Yikes.

[Neddy]

Why are we worried about whether they're movable?
Isn't the objective of building from within to feed our major league roster with talent we have developed with movable players being just a side benefit?

And how are we in need of elite young arms more so than position players?
We have 2 elite arms at the major league level. We have another good arm up at the major league level. We have Yadier (elite) down under and we have Walker Buehler who was viewed as elite before his senior season (brb needed TJS probably being the reason) down under.

I have no idea if the game system still offers the same method as I have not played any madden in a decade or longer, but remember when the madden simulation would offer ratings in the draft? if you have 98, 97, 94 and 92 rated pitchers(say quarterback in the game) ahead of a position player, would you really skip them to draft a 81 rated WR? I would rather draft the 98 rated QB and trade for a 91 rated WR prospect. same analogy can be said here. if the draft offers a ton of quality pitching, you take the BPA and if it happens to be pitching for the first 5 rounds, so be it.

and yeah, you can't never have too much pitching. just not possible. elite pitching in the minors through the pipeline doesn't necessarily translate into an elite major league pitchers either. gotta stack them up to make sure. any surplus who loses out becomes a great trade commodity as Ranma said, but less than BPA position player prospect who doesn't pan out, won't get the same second look in the trade market as a once highly regarded pitching prospect. Zach Lee is a good example. he had no value, and ran out of options with us. he was contemplating going back to college to be a QB. and we got a ML experienced AAA star SS who was under performing in the majors in very limited chances in Taylor. I would rate Lee at 67 and Taylor at 75... but still we came on top with this deal.

maybe a bad example, I dunno, I am hung over with Tryptophan and Coors light at this point.

Your example between a 90+ and an 81 is extreme and make the answer obvious. If the circumstances are less obvious, I want the position player.

In 2009, I'm sure Trout looked like the 80 something to Zack Wheeler's 90 something...(side note: I've been a fan of dealing for Wheeler for over a year now when the Mets almost dealt him to Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez.)

I'm looking for a Trout...not another Kershaw....and I'd rather shoot for the moon (Trout) and land on the stars (Stephen Piscotty, Jackie Bradley, Nolan Arenado) than shoot for Kershaw and land on a Marcus Stroman.

Seager was the 1st position player we took with a 1st round pick since Blake Dewitt in 2004. I mean, sure you can never have enough pitching....but if you draft that way for over a decade, get used to old geriatric guys like Brandon Phillips coming up in our winter discussions.

Yikes.

that's another reason to stock up on first rounders, so we can afford to pick a BPA followed by a close BPPA if there are any, as you say when we go back to back in compensation rounds... thus I think Kenley and Turner are history

[Quake Griffin]

I have no idea if the game system still offers the same method as I have not played any madden in a decade or longer, but remember when the madden simulation would offer ratings in the draft? if you have 98, 97, 94 and 92 rated pitchers(say quarterback in the game) ahead of a position player, would you really skip them to draft a 81 rated WR? I would rather draft the 98 rated QB and trade for a 91 rated WR prospect. same analogy can be said here. if the draft offers a ton of quality pitching, you take the BPA and if it happens to be pitching for the first 5 rounds, so be it.

and yeah, you can't never have too much pitching. just not possible. elite pitching in the minors through the pipeline doesn't necessarily translate into an elite major league pitchers either. gotta stack them up to make sure. any surplus who loses out becomes a great trade commodity as Ranma said, but less than BPA position player prospect who doesn't pan out, won't get the same second look in the trade market as a once highly regarded pitching prospect. Zach Lee is a good example. he had no value, and ran out of options with us. he was contemplating going back to college to be a QB. and we got a ML experienced AAA star SS who was under performing in the majors in very limited chances in Taylor. I would rate Lee at 67 and Taylor at 75... but still we came on top with this deal.

maybe a bad example, I dunno, I am hung over with Tryptophan and Coors light at this point.

Your example between a 90+ and an 81 is extreme and make the answer obvious. If the circumstances are less obvious, I want the position player.

In 2009, I'm sure Trout looked like the 80 something to Zack Wheeler's 90 something...(side note: I've been a fan of dealing for Wheeler for over a year now when the Mets almost dealt him to Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez.)

I'm looking for a Trout...not another Kershaw....and I'd rather shoot for the moon (Trout) and land on the stars (Stephen Piscotty, Jackie Bradley, Nolan Arenado) than shoot for Kershaw and land on a Marcus Stroman.

Seager was the 1st position player we took with a 1st round pick since Blake Dewitt in 2004. I mean, sure you can never have enough pitching....but if you draft that way for over a decade, get used to old geriatric guys like Brandon Phillips coming up in our winter discussions.

Yikes.

that's another reason to stock up on first rounders, so we can afford to pick a BPA followed by a close BPPA if there are any, as you say when we go back to back in compensation rounds... thus I think Kenley and Turner are history

I think they're done too btw and they will be elsewhere by the time the winter meetings are done.

Btw, color me unsurprised if the Giants nab one or both of them.

I will hate it in 2017. I will second guess it in 2017 but I will get over it in the long run. I have a long range vision of how I want the Dodgers to look and how I want them run and in the grand scheme of things, years 32-36 (37???) for Turner aren't that big to me. I do selfishly want Kenley to hang around and run up his saves number, make the hall etc etc but we have a team to build around Seager and Urias (and Kershaw if he wants to be here after 2018).

[Neddy]

I think they're done too btw and they will be elsewhere by the time the winter meetings are done.

Btw, color me unsurprised if the Giants nab one or both of them.

I will hate it in 2017. I will second guess it in 2017 but I will get over it in the long run. I have a long range vision of how I want the Dodgers to look and how I want them run and in the grand scheme of things, years 32-36 (37???) for Turner aren't that big to me. I do selfishly want Kenley to hang around and run up his saves number, make the hall etc etc but we have a team to build around Seager and Urias (and Kershaw if he wants to be here after 2018).

young players we will have on the active roster until 2019...

C S Grandal; arbitration eligible already but won't be a FA until 2019. maybe we trade him.
1B L Bellinger
2B R ****
SS L Seager
3B R Barnes ; yeah he maybe the catcher of the future but for now Grandal is still on this hypothetical roster.
LF L Toles
CF L Joc
RF L Verdugo
bench
Lux, Smith, Calhoun, and Diaz

pitchers

SP1 L Urias
SP2 R Otani ( would be awesome )
SP3 R De Leon
SP4 R Alvarez
SP5 R Maeda
CP R Sheffield
SU R Walker
MR L Liberatore
MR L Dayton

I'm getting a feeling Maeda will be traded soon. he seems like the odd man out of this team's make up.

[Ranma]

The bottom line with the best-player-available strategy is the obvious approach to getting the best players and assets to maximize our talent base. To do otherwise only serves to harm us as an organization over the long term. It's not like I've only wanted to draft pitchers, but you take what the draft gives you. This past draft, I advocated for taking Josh Lowe as a 3B when he was projected to be a realistic possibility for us. While I was not as hyped with the selection as I was with Clayton Kershaw in 2006, Corey Seager was the unquestioned choice in 2012. I certainly wasn't happy with our choice of pitchers in Chris Anderson in 2013 or Kyle Funkhouser in 2015.

I recognize a need for more position players and have, in fact, complained that Logan White should have focused more on position prospects during his time with the Dodgers but I won't sign off on taking a position prospect over a pitching prospect prioritizing filling a need over taking the best available talent. Obviously, if all things are equal, then we can go to need as a sort of tiebreaker.

We'll see how the 2017 draft board plays out, but as far as I can tell, the best available talent projected around our draft slot looks to be prep pitchers. I've explained my thought process a bit in a post in the 2016 Draft thread of why I tend to lean towards prep arms as well as my thoughts on college and prep batters. The fact that our farm is also depleted of elite-level talent including among our pitching prospects underscores the need to look at higher upside candidates.

[Quake Griffin]

I guess.

For an example...I don't see how drafting a relief arm in Sheffield will provide more value for our team than say Nolan Jones would.

I believe you didn't like Nolan Jones. Is that right?...but if we're talking talent base...I don't see how a guy with a zipper on his elbow, semi-violent delivery and slated to probably be fast tracked and a relief arm (closer?) helps our talent base more than a guy like Nolan Jones.

and I like Sheffield.
But to me, that's just stupid. We can sign a closer.

[Neddy]

I think I may have done a poor job describing what draftees and scouts project their outcomes to be.

when I previously said, "a pitching prospect with 98 Madden scores versus a postion player with 82 madden ratings" what I should have said was what the scouts project the draftees' highest ceiling to be, not where they are currently as they are drafted. most prep pitchers, are going to be projected higher than say, a college bats unless the prospect is a once in a lifetime type of a prospect which really, never occurs. some GMs understand the risk of developing such high ceiling, but high risk prep pitchers and shuns away from them, as Billy Beane does. some goes all in, like Logan White. the job gets much easier when you are tanking and consistently swiping a top 5 talents at each draft, but when you are not, each approach cannot be discredited as taking high risk, high reward prospects to pay off if you do it smartly and do it in a large quantity. taking on possibly lesser ceiling, but lesser risk position players also do pay off when you have a strong scouting department who can find muliples of those safe bets.

I still think BPA is the better way to go than BPPA. but after the first tow rounds, I don't think it really matters.

[Ranma]

I guess.

For an example...I don't see how drafting a relief arm in Sheffield will provide more value for our team than say Nolan Jones would.

I believe you didn't like Nolan Jones. Is that right?...but if we're talking talent base...I don't see how a guy with a zipper on his elbow, semi-violent delivery and slated to probably be fast tracked and a relief arm (closer?) helps our talent base more than a guy like Nolan Jones.

and I like Sheffield.
But to me, that's just stupid. We can sign a closer.

I liked Nolan Jones well enough, but I didn't like him above our other options. Given our available draft opportunities, we could have come away with both Jordan Sheffield and Nolan Jones. I believe I mentioned in the draft thread during the live proceedings that I wanted to consider Jones with our 3rd first-round selection as our other targeted prospects were falling off the draft board. Instead, the Dodgers selected Will Smith with the 32nd overall pick to fill our void at the catching position in our developmental pipeline, which was also a priority for me and Neddy. I didn't overly fret about that particular selection given our remaining options and the aforementioned desire to address our shortage of catchers, but I would have preferred selecting either Cooper Johnson or Logan Ice with picks in the lower rounds. As it turned out, Ice went higher than I would have preferred to take him at (72nd overall) while Johnson was apparently unsignable beyond a certain point given his eventual draft slot (828th overall).

Personally, I would have much preferred to come away with Delvin Perez (over Gavin Lux), Sheffield, Jones, Mitchell White, and Johnson instead of Lux, Smith, Sheffield, White, and Dustin May. To be honest, I would have been inclined to take Alec Hansen or Buddy Reed over Jones as well with the 36th overall pick at that point, but I did give him consideration.

Speaking of which, Jones batted .257 in the minors, so he's not exactly tearing it up. I'm not writing him off as a prospect because he may still be dealing with back issues, but as a college-senior draftee, he was expected to make a quicker adjustment. This is why Josh Lowe is valued higher despite fairly similar builds and positional profiles; Lowe is not as polished as a prep prospect while Jones had 4 years of college development so his upside is more limited.

I view Sheffield in a similar light to Grant Holmes--except better--despite Jordan being a college junior and Holmes a high-school senior when he was selected. In both cases, I felt they both should eventually be developed into closers, except that Sheffield should be fast-tracked to that role. I've disagreed with the Dodgers at numerous times about developing pitchers I felt should be groomed as relievers like Chris Reed, Yaisel Sierra, Jharel Cotton, Chris Anderson, and even Holmes as well as Frankie Montas to some extent. While I can see the value of giving patience to see what these guys had as starters given how much more valuable they would be as trade assets or otherwise, the organization has wasted too much time in some of these situations. Plus, I want to acknowledge developing them as starters early gives them more innings to work with, but like I said, there has to be a reasonable cutting off point for such projects during respective evaluation periods.

Namely, Reed and Anderson both lost significant value when they wasted time trying to convert into starters. Reed, in particular, was already seen as a good and polished relief arm when he was drafted. I had other issues about his particular selection in the first round, but I believe I've already covered that ground on this forum previously. The Dodgers, at least, were relatively quick to admit their mistake with Sierra, but that's after many years of flubbing this. We might be doing the same thing with Josh Sborz right now.

Going back to Sheffield, I'm generally not a fan of using first-round picks on closer prospects or catchers, for that matter, but there are exceptions. This has more to do with our current situation than available prospects standing out given our lack of remaining options at the draft table. I've said before, Sheffield's value is tied to how quickly we fast-track him into the closer role. Given what was left on the draft table, I was fine with his selection given our future needs and the value he presented. Plus, let's not forget that other teams may see him as a potential starter. He certainly has the arm and repertoire for it even if I feel otherwise. Personally, I'm hoping he can provide us something similar to what Eric Gagne gave us as a closer with a live arm and varied arsenal of pitches. Obviously, I'm not counting on him to be the next "Game Over" but I see similar upside and decent likelihood of projection. Being more than a 1 or even 2-pitch pitcher elevated Sheffield from the typical closer prospects typically taken in the draft.

Another thing to keep in mind, is that our front office leaders have shown a reluctance to pay premium prices for relief arms, so while I would love to have Kenley Jansen back and am even intrigued with bringing in Aroldis Chapman, we certainly can't count on either being in Dodger blue for next season given their anticipated price tags. Are we even going to outbid the Giants for Mark Melancon? Given our financial situation and aims, I don't see that happening. So who do we have on the roster or in the pipeline that we can confidently rely on to close out games? Pedro Baez? Chris Hatcher?

Sheffield obviously isn't going to fix that right now, but he could be the solution sooner rather than later if we handle the situation correctly this time. And if he happens to fill the closer role early into his career, we'd have a closer with dominant stuff under cost-control for several years to come. I happen to think he's capable of doing that, thus my valuing of his selection in this instance. Also, like I said, there are at least some talent evaluators within and outside the organization who will certainly view him as a possible starter if he is able to put up numbers. In limited action in the minors, he has a 3.75 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 12 innings. That's also not to mention that Sheffield is currently ranked higher than both Lux and Smith in MLB Pipeline's current rankings of our top 30 prospects despite being drafted after them.

[Ranma]

With the new collective bargaining agreement allowing MLB teams to keep their first-round selection even if they sign free agents who decline their qualifying offer, it basically scraps my plan to blow out our draft budget in either the 2017 or 2018 draft since we would potentially lose 2 first-round picks over the next 2 drafts in order to do so. That doesn't necessarily mean we shouldn't do it if the draft class is ripe with talent worth sacrificing future #1 picks for, it just seems unlikely even with the deep class for 2017. It's just that there is less of a benefit now since we're likely to still have a first-round pick even if we sign free agents as anticipated in the 2018 winter offseason.

However, it remains imperative that we get below the luxury tax as teams in excess of $40 million or more above the luxury-tax threshold will have its highest selection drop 10 draft slots starting in 2018. That means our typically late first-round pick could potentially be an early second-round selection if not in the Lottery Compensation Round A.

Assuming Jansen and Turner sign elsewhere, this could be the last time the Dodgers draft in the 1st round (and Lottery Compenstation Round A) for a while. At least, it's projected to be a deep pool of talent to draw from for 2017.

[Ranma]

Plus, let's not forget that other teams may see him as a potential starter. He certainly has the arm and repertoire for it even if I feel otherwise. Personally, I'm hoping he can provide us something similar to what Eric Gagne gave us as a closer with a live arm and varied arsenal of pitches. Obviously, I'm not counting on him to be the next "Game Over" but I see similar upside and decent likelihood of projection. Being more than a 1 or even 2-pitch pitcher elevated Sheffield from the typical closer prospects typically taken in the draft.

To add to the discussion about Jordan Sheffield, just read the recent Q&A with the Dodgers' pitching coach as to why I value him as an advanced power arm with a varied arsenal of pitches. Honeycutt seems to place a high value on some of what I like about Sheffield.

I personally view him as a closer, but he has a better likelihood of surpassing my expectations to become a good starting pitcher than some of the other pitchers we've taken in the first round. Chris Reed and Chris Anderson, to name two, and I even like his upside more than I did Grant Holmes' when we drafted him as well.

Tracy Ringolsby, MLB.com (12/3/16)

MLB.com: Is there still a fascination with strikeouts?

Honeycutt: A pitcher needs to come up with something that you can correctly contact, and something that you can get a swing and miss with. [Pitchers] that have two pitches that [they] get swings and misses with -- or Kershaw that has three pitches that are swing-and-miss pitches -- become the elite of the elite. Going back to your question, sure. I think anybody loves strikeouts. At the same time, using Kershaw as an example, [pitchers] have to learn to manage the game, pitch-count wise, even if [one] is a strikeout pitcher.
...

MLB.com: What distinguishes Kershaw from other guys that makes him so much more of a strikeout guy?

Honeycutt: In 2015, he had 301 strikeouts, and he had right at 100 strikeouts with each of his three pitches -- fastball, curveball and slider. That shows the balance he enjoys. There are great fastball guys. Kenley Jansen is ... a strikeout guy, but he basically does it with one pitch. A lot of people have two plus pitches that they go to, but to have three is extraordinary.
...

MLB.com: So the power arms are there, but the strikeouts, for a particular pitcher, aren't?

Honeycutt: The game is changing. There's just so much power. Arms coming, being developed and coming up at early age. You're seeing that ability of guys. It's crazy though, to me, to see how much power and then you still have guys that don't have the ability to get strikeouts -- even with 96-mph-plus fastballs -- because hitters get timing down. If pitchers make mistakes, the hitters are able to still make the adjustment.

Q&A: Honeycutt on the Art of the Strikeout

[Neddy]

^ is Honeycutt talking about Ross? Baez gets up in velocity, and he is the quintessential one pitch pitcher but he has Kershaw/Hill matching 10+ K/9 ratio. only one on the staff who's K/9 ratio is not looking good is Ross but he is a knuckle curve guy not a power pitcher, so not sure who he is referring to.

[Ranma]

^ is Honeycutt talking about Ross? Baez gets up in velocity, and he is the quintessential one pitch pitcher but he has Kershaw/Hill matching 10+ K/9 ratio. only one on the staff who's K/9 ratio is not looking good is Ross but he is a knuckle curve guy not a power pitcher, so not sure who he is referring to.

Honeycutt was talking about pitchers in general. He goes on to talk about Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale, and David Price with regard to their approaches and repertoires. While he places a premium on pitchers who bring heat, his emphasis on having multiple out-pitches to keep hitters guessing in today's game where batters are working to extend at-bats and increase pitch counts in addition to their proficiency to get the timing down of pitches.

Clayton Kershaw was cited as the epitome in his examples but Rich Hill also gets the job done in a similar fashion by varying the speed and angles of his curveballs to effectively make them different pitches for batters to adjust to on top of his low-90s/high-80s fastball. Having said that, Ross Stripling certainly doesn't fit his ideal composition for a pitcher given his lack of a power pitch.