2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[parapooper]

Yeah he is, and Harden would be in the top 3 but his team is going to suck and won't sniff Golden State. Statistically Harden absolutely is an MVP level player but the Rockets are a 4-6 seed and low 50 win team at best.

Durant is going to be a top 1-3 stats player plus anchoring a 68-73 win runaway freight train of a team. Can't beat that. Durant is MVP.

Yes, how could you not give the MVP to a guy turning a 73-win team into a 68-win team

Yes, let's give it to players on lower than 4th seed 1st round exits instead! Because that's how it's always been done in the past!

Wow, you are pathetic. Where did I say anything even remotely hinting at excluding players from the 8 top teams?

We've never, ever seen it go to the player with the best stats on the best team........

It didn't go to the best player on the Spurs in 2014, did it? Wonder who falsely got that one ....
Plus, we also never had an MVP-level player join a team that had the best record without him.
And you said he is MVP even if they win 5 games less than with Harrison Barnes (who did not win MVP last season if I recall correctly)

[Triples333]

For what it's worth the Warriors are on pace for north of 70 wins again, and I would certainly not call them worse than last season. As is their 11+ SRS has to be close to as good if not better than last year right? Edit: yeah, it's better than last years SRS, and obviously that's saying something. This is a team that's certainly not peaking yet as a unit either.

Still, no way I'm voting KD as MVP as it currently stands. Curry's too good and better than him too often.

[parapooper]

For what it's worth the Warriors are on pace for north of 70 wins again, and I would certainly not call them worse than last season. As is their 11+ SRS has to be close to as good if not better than last year right? Edit: yeah, it's better than last years SRS, and obviously that's saying something. This is a team that's certainly not peaking yet as a unit either.

Still, no way I'm voting KD as MVP as it currently stands.

Are you sure? Because "Slightly better than with Harrison Barnes, who is now leading the Mavs to glory" sounds like a compelling MVP argument to me.
On the other hand, without Bogut they were 11-1 last year (75-win pace) and lost against the Spurs by 20 points less, so it's not really clear their SRS has been better than last season's "with Barnes, without Bogut" so far.

[HotRocks34]

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These are the kind of guys who get to vote. They know LeBron is the best player in the game and the fact that even a coasting (sorta) LeBron is putting up 24/9/9 on 59% TS% will be enough for the them to vote for him.

Right. Anyone who thinks Durant is going to win over LeBron given they have similar records and they are both the #1 seeds in their conferences is, I think, likely kidding themselves. Again, Durant went to a 73-win team. It's almost impossible to make a case for him as a "most valuable player."

I put these stats out there previously and I'll do it again. I would imagine that the voters know these stats. And if they don't know them now, they will know them before they vote.

These figures are from the NBAWowy site. They are about each team and how the team does when the player(s) are on or off the court. Stats are through Nov 25th games. First number is ORTG, then DRTG (ORTG/DRTG). And then Net Rating (ORTG - DRTG).


WARRIORS

Durant on, Curry off ======> 108/108. +00 NRTG
Curry on, Durant off ======> 113/101. +12 NRTG
Durant on, Curry on ======> 125/101. +24 NRTG


CAVS

LeBron on, Love & Irving off ====> 131/107. +24 NRTG
Love & Irving on, LeBron off ====> 111/115. -04 NRTG


That pretty much tells you everything there is to know.

LeBron is by far the best player on the Cavs.
Durant isn't the best/most important player on his own team.
LeBron, without Love and Irving, has the same Net Rating as Curry and Durant being on the court together.

It's not all quite that simple and clear cut, but that's a good way to understand the dynamics here.

The Warriors don't need Durant to be a great team. We saw that last year. That, of course, weakens Durant's case for MVP. And what the stats seem to show is that Durant is succeeding in large part because of Curry. That is, Durant is likely getting open looks and easy opportunities because Curry is drawing more attention from the defense.

But when Curry is taken off the court, Durant doesn't look as good.

Curry, however, doesn't need Durant to look good on the court.

I mean this in full sincerity: I can't see any way in which Durant wins the MVP if LeBron is his main rival and the Cavs win 60+ games.


*****
Has this happened before, where a player wins the award with "lesser" stats and someone else in a comparable situation had better stats?

Yes. It happened in 2000-01 with Iverson and Shaq and Duncan.

Iverson
27/03/4 on 42/32/81 with 24.0 PER and .190 WS48 and +4.8 BPM

Shaq
29/13/4 on 57/xx/51 with 30.2 PER and .245 WS48 and +7.3 BPM

Duncan
22/12/3 on 50/26/62 with 23.8 PER and .200 WS48 and +5.4 BPM

Both LAL and PHI won 56 games; Spurs won 58 games.
Iverson wins MVP. Duncan 2nd. Shaq 3rd. Shaq clearly had the best stats of the three.
*****


Take it to the bank -- barring some unforeseen consequence, Durant's not winning the award. Even if the stats seem to suggest he should win it.

Also, I believe LeBron is one of like three players to be Top 25 currently in PPG, RPG, APG (with Giannis and Westbrook). He's not mailing in anything.

[HotRocks34]

Also, there were some hurt feelings and repercussions after Shaq was snubbed for that 2001 MVP award. Here's a sample:


http://articles.mcall.com/2001-06-16/sports/3353368_1_iverson-s-sixers-allen-iverson-lakers-coach-phil-jackson
Dominating O'Neal is avenging MVP snub

But only one was selected as the NBA's Most Valuable Player, and the one that wasn't was a little upset when the winner was announced.

...

"You can't take away anything he's done," Iverson said of O'Neal. "I think it's unfair to try to take away what I've done for my team and what I've done this year.

"It's unfair to even talk about that after it's already over. They already gave that award away. That's mine, that's something that I'll keep and cherish for the rest of my life."

O'Neal, who was the league's MVP for the 1999-2000 season, had not disputed Iverson's claim to the award. He just thought the voting should have been closer.

"I think for what the 76ers accomplished and the way Allen played the role on the 76ers, it's quite reasonable to understand his award," said Lakers coach Phil Jackson. "And there's a sentiment toward that effort. The 76ers were leading the ranks for a lot of the year in the NBA.

Shaq wasn't thrilled with the voting, as you can see.


Shaq's statline against the Sixers and the MVP in the 2001 Finals:
33/16/5 on 57/--/51

So, perhaps Durant will also have his own vengeance in the 2017 Finals?

Time will tell.

[MisterHibachi]

On his career low steals/blocks for a less than middling Cavs D to this point? Yeah, not a great sell either. I'm far from a 'Bron hater, but his performances are being grossly overstated right now.

Mentioning steals/blocks as a good measure of defense?

Ehhhh it's indicative of his effort on that end and I wouldn't blindly ignore it. Likewise wouldn't ignore the Cavs weakish D as a unit (16th overall and falling after tonight), or LBJ not rating in the top 50 in DRPM. Pick your poison? Or better yet, make an argument rather than post a pic? lol.

Using steals/blocks numbers as indicators of effort is even worse than judging defense on them. RPM is based on, again, stats, so you're saying the same thing twice.

As for an argument: LeBron on-court defensive rating: 101.5. Off-court: 113.2. Yeah, he's coasting big time You should probably watch more Cavs games if you think LeBron's effort has been lacking.

[MisterHibachi]

Doesn't matter who's more important. Durant is currently the most statistically dominant player in basketball and also leading the best team in basketball. Under no scenario/criteria does a player with the best stats + best record not win the MVP. It's never happened in the past too.

It's happened in the past where the best player or best stats player didn't win it. Or the best player on the best team didn't win it (lost out to a better stats player). But the best player/best stats player PLUS on the best team? Never happened.

Sorry, you can cry all you want about the Warriors unbeatable dynasty and remain bitter over Durant's decision, but any objective measure of the award currently has Durant at #1.

But he's not even the clear MVP of his own team...

Steph on-off: +17.9
Durant on-off: +13.1
Green on-off: +12.7

It's been pretty clear so far this season that the Warriors help Durant more than he helps them.

[te887848]

Yes, how could you not give the MVP to a guy turning a 73-win team into a 68-win team

Yes, let's give it to players on lower than 4th seed 1st round exits instead! Because that's how it's always been done in the past!

Wow, you are pathetic. Where did I say anything even remotely hinting at excluding players from the 8 top teams?

We've never, ever seen it go to the player with the best stats on the best team........

It didn't go to the best player on the Spurs in 2014, did it? Wonder who falsely got that one ....
Plus, we also never had an MVP-level player join a team that had the best record without him.
And you said he is MVP even if they win 5 games less than with Harrison Barnes (who did not win MVP last season if I recall correctly)

You clearly cannot understand my first quote as your reply makes little sense.

As for the second part, again, just a weak and terrible argument. So it goes to LeBron in 2014, the best stats and best overall player who came within a game of the 1st seed... and that's somehow supposed to support your argument that it shouldn't go to the best stats/best player on the best team this year?

[te887848]

Doesn't matter who's more important. Durant is currently the most statistically dominant player in basketball and also leading the best team in basketball. Under no scenario/criteria does a player with the best stats + best record not win the MVP. It's never happened in the past too.

It's happened in the past where the best player or best stats player didn't win it. Or the best player on the best team didn't win it (lost out to a better stats player). But the best player/best stats player PLUS on the best team? Never happened.

Sorry, you can cry all you want about the Warriors unbeatable dynasty and remain bitter over Durant's decision, but any objective measure of the award currently has Durant at #1.

But he's not even the clear MVP of his own team...

Steph on-off: +17.9
Durant on-off: +13.1
Green on-off: +12.7

It's been pretty clear so far this season that the Warriors help Durant more than he helps them.

Green is trash compared to Durant and vastly inferior to him... so bringing him up is simply silly. Durant is a top 1-3 player and galaxies superior to Green.

Curry is an MVP level player too and you can make a case for him or Durant depending on the day. Thus far up to this point Durant's 30.6 PER and near 69 TS% plus elite defense point to him being the slightly better player so far at least... we'll see if it continues.

[Triples333]

For what it's worth the Warriors are on pace for north of 70 wins again, and I would certainly not call them worse than last season. As is their 11+ SRS has to be close to as good if not better than last year right? Edit: yeah, it's better than last years SRS, and obviously that's saying something. This is a team that's certainly not peaking yet as a unit either.

Still, no way I'm voting KD as MVP as it currently stands.

Are you sure? Because "Slightly better than with Harrison Barnes, who is now leading the Mavs to glory" sounds like a compelling MVP argument to me.
On the other hand, without Bogut they were 11-1 last year (75-win pace) and lost against the Spurs by 20 points less, so it's not really clear their SRS has been better than last season's "with Barnes, without Bogut" so far.

They won a record setting amount of games and strived very hard for that record. It's foolish to simply look at their record and infer (well they're only on pace for 72 wins so obv worse team), specifically when you're talking about such a shock to the system and the players adjusting to new roles. If they maintain a pace of 67+ wins (i.e. Top 10 in NBA history with an SRS at an all time level), the best player on that unit throughout the year who is playing at an MVP level will obviously be given consideration for the award. Or in the Warriors case, both will likely finish top 5 or close to it, but not at the top barring significant missed time from one or the other.

As is, there is frankly no clear MVP favorite like there was at this stage (and all season) last year.

[mtron929]

Overall, I think this will be a very underwhelming winner. The three best players in the league are (1) past their primes (Lebron) and (2)-(3) Curry/Westbrook cancelling one another in impact. And the next likely winner CP3 is also past his prime. Finally, you have players like Westbrook/Harden who are at their peak but are on not-so-great teams, and thus making it very difficult for them to get votes.

[Phreak50]

If Kawhi wins his third straight DPOY award, it'd be hard to not give him MVP.

Think about it, the best defender in the game also giving you 25pts, 7rbs, 3 asts, 2.5 steals. He will get close to 50, 40, 90 as well.

[Heej]

If Kawhi wins his third straight DPOY award, it'd be hard to not give him MVP.

Think about it, the best defender in the game also giving you 25pts, 7rbs, 3 asts, 2.5 steals. He will get close to 50, 40, 90 as well.

Kawhi's defense has dipped this year precisely due to his offensive load. I doubt he wins another DPoTY, especially because of voter fatigue. He is still playing at a top 5 MVP level though.

[inquisitive]

If there is a player i wouldn't bet on to not win MVP, it would be Lebron especially if it is between him and KD. Lebron will get the nod over KD with close team record and stats. KD joining a 73 win team will hurt his case even more....surely, Harden, Leonard, and Westb are a bit of a long shot, but i think in this year, voters will strongly consider team wins(50 min), but they also need to put some dope stats too. I think the fact that sportswriters talking about AD putting up some incredible #s with Pelicans still struggling will bolster the cases for Harden and Westb if they can get 50 wins or possibly just make playoffs.

[Johnny Firpo]

Again, Durant went to a 73-win team. It's almost impossible to make a case for him as a "most valuable player.

Sure, but you know full well that while the award is named the "Most Valuable Player", the voters don't actually try to stay faitful to this definition, in fact, they simply vote for most statistically dominant player on the team that has the most wins. If the Warriors win 6-7-8 games more than the Cavs, the voting could get very interesting. If the two teams win similar amount of games, I agree, it is probably Lebron, lowkey stats or not.

[te887848]

You're kidding yourself if you think LeBron deserves MVP over Durant, who is currently the best player in basketball. Durant blows away LeBron statistically with a TS% nearly 10 percentage points higher and a PER almost 5 points higher (leading the league).

There's no argument now for anyone other than Durant, except from those who are still crying and bitter over Durant going to a team they didn't want him to go to. Objectively, however, Durant is the current pick for MVP easily. Obviously plenty of basketball left to play, but at this point he obviously is.

[mademan]

Durant has gaudier numbers than Curry, but it's actually very very arguable who has the bigger on court impact.

[Homer38]

You're kidding yourself if you think LeBron deserves MVP over Durant, who is currently the best player in basketball. Durant blows away LeBron statistically with a TS% nearly 10 percentage points higher and a PER almost 5 points higher (leading the league).

There's no argument now for anyone other than Durant, except from those who are still crying and bitter over Durant going to a team they didn't want him to go to. Objectively, however, Durant is the current pick for MVP easily. Obviously plenty of basketball left to play, but at this point he obviously is.

But LeBron has a much better impact than Durant to his team and this is not close right now.


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These are the kind of guys who get to vote. They know LeBron is the best player in the game and the fact that even a coasting (sorta) LeBron is putting up 24/9/9 on 59% TS% will be enough for the them to vote for him.

Right. Anyone who thinks Durant is going to win over LeBron given they have similar records and they are both the #1 seeds in their conferences is, I think, likely kidding themselves. Again, Durant went to a 73-win team. It's almost impossible to make a case for him as a "most valuable player."

I put these stats out there previously and I'll do it again. I would imagine that the voters know these stats. And if they don't know them now, they will know them before they vote.

These figures are from the NBAWowy site. They are about each team and how the team does when the player(s) are on or off the court. Stats are through Nov 25th games. First number is ORTG, then DRTG (ORTG/DRTG). And then Net Rating (ORTG - DRTG).


WARRIORS

Durant on, Curry off ======> 108/108. +00 NRTG
Curry on, Durant off ======> 113/101. +12 NRTG
Durant on, Curry on ======> 125/101. +24 NRTG


CAVS

LeBron on, Love & Irving off ====> 131/107. +24 NRTG
Love & Irving on, LeBron off ====> 111/115. -04 NRTG


That pretty much tells you everything there is to know.

LeBron is by far the best player on the Cavs.
Durant isn't the best/most important player on his own team.
LeBron, without Love and Irving, has the same Net Rating as Curry and Durant being on the court together.

It's not all quite that simple and clear cut, but that's a good way to understand the dynamics here.

The Warriors don't need Durant to be a great team. We saw that last year. That, of course, weakens Durant's case for MVP. And what the stats seem to show is that Durant is succeeding in large part because of Curry. That is, Durant is likely getting open looks and easy opportunities because Curry is drawing more attention from the defense.

But when Curry is taken off the court, Durant doesn't look as good.

Curry, however, doesn't need Durant to look good on the court.

I mean this in full sincerity: I can't see any way in which Durant wins the MVP if LeBron is his main rival and the Cavs win 60+ games.


*****
Has this happened before, where a player wins the award with "lesser" stats and someone else in a comparable situation had better stats?

Yes. It happened in 2000-01 with Iverson and Shaq and Duncan.

Iverson
27/03/4 on 42/32/81 with 24.0 PER and .190 WS48 and +4.8 BPM

Shaq
29/13/4 on 57/xx/51 with 30.2 PER and .245 WS48 and +7.3 BPM

Duncan
22/12/3 on 50/26/62 with 23.8 PER and .200 WS48 and +5.4 BPM

Both LAL and PHI won 56 games; Spurs won 58 games.
Iverson wins MVP. Duncan 2nd. Shaq 3rd. Shaq clearly had the best stats of the three.
*****


Take it to the bank -- barring some unforeseen consequence, Durant's not winning the award. Even if the stats seem to suggest he should win it.

Also, I believe LeBron is one of like three players to be Top 25 currently in PPG, RPG, APG (with Giannis and Westbrook). He's not mailing in anything.

[Homer38]

For the MVP,Westbrook deserve to be in the conversation if the Thunder win their division and finish the season with 30-10-10.

[mademan]

You're kidding yourself if you think LeBron deserves MVP over Durant, who is currently the best player in basketball. Durant blows away LeBron statistically with a TS% nearly 10 percentage points higher and a PER almost 5 points higher (leading the league).

There's no argument now for anyone other than Durant, except from those who are still crying and bitter over Durant going to a team they didn't want him to go to. Objectively, however, Durant is the current pick for MVP easily. Obviously plenty of basketball left to play, but at this point he obviously is.

Durants got better numbers, but it's pretty clear (by all the numbers) that Lebron is far and away the most impactful player for the Cavs while Durant may not even be the most impactful Warrior