The (Where Ainges Fear to) Trade Thread, 2016-17 (1.0)

[Captain_Caveman]

I've not seen one argument for Noel that is more convincing than any I've seen for Bogut (seen a lot more for the former too).

Give up a lot for Noel and have him leave in the summer, that or we pay him near the max for strictly defensive purposes, or give up very little for Bogut and have him fill more needs for our team while walking in the summer comfortably or returning for cheap.

Oh, and guess what? If we still really want Noel in the summer, we can still get him. Trading for Bogut gives us a lot of the short-term benefits that Noel does right now while also coming cheaper than Noel. He's also an expiring and doesn't hamper our ability to still get Noel if Danny wants him next summer. I hope he doesn't give him the max, but hey, if there's somehow a lot less demand than expected, we're not at all restricted in signing him.

Not even saying we should do it, because there are different costs with each, but if you are looking for reasons for Noel > Bogut, here's a few...

1. Actually watch them play.

2. We are building for the long-term future, not this year.

3. Bogut is incongruous to our system on both ends of the floor.

4. Noel > Bogut against the Ws or any of the Eastern contenders.

Also, not true we could just have Noel in the offseason. He's a restricted free agent.

IMO, if Bogut is actually healthy at the deadline, the Mavs can get more than the Wolves 2nd for him, which means I am out and then some.

[cellar-door]

I've not seen one argument for Noel that is more convincing than any I've seen for Bogut (seen a lot more for the former too).

Give up a lot for Noel and have him leave in the summer, that or we pay him near the max for strictly defensive purposes, or give up very little for Bogut and have him fill more needs for our team while walking in the summer comfortably or returning for cheap.

Oh, and guess what? If we still really want Noel in the summer, we can still get him. Trading for Bogut gives us a lot of the short-term benefits that Noel does right now while also coming cheaper than Noel. He's also an expiring and doesn't hamper our ability to still get Noel if Danny wants him next summer. I hope he doesn't give him the max, but hey, if there's somehow a lot less demand than expected, we're not at all restricted in signing him.

Not even saying we should do it, because there are different costs with each, but if you are looking for reasons for Noel > Bogut, here's a few...

1. Actually watch them play.

2. We are building for the long-term future, not this year.

3. Bogut is incongruous to our system on both ends of the floor.

4. Noel > Bogut against the Ws or any of the Eastern contenders.

Also, not true we could just have Noel in the offseason. He's a restricted free agent.

IMO, if Bogut is actually healthy at the deadline, the Mavs can get more than the Wolves 2nd for him, which means I am out and then some.

1. Bogut is probably the better player right now, he's in decline and Noel is young, but he's still a more rounded player, he's the better rebounder by a solid margin, better passer, blocks more shots. etc.
2. Only if you think re-signing Noel is a given, and many think that Noel isn't someone you want to tie yourself to a long term deal on (attitude, health, still needs a lot of work)
3.This is dumb, he fit great with GS who runs a better version of what we do, he won't do much for the offense besides screen and pass, but on defense he can still really protect the rim.
4. I don't see any reason to think this, Bogut is certainly better against TOR and CLE, his loss was a huge factor in the Warriors struggles against Cleveland.

Basically it comes down to 2 things:
1. Price. Bogut would likely be much cheaper than Noel
2. Whether Danny is willing to match whatever crazy offer-sheet Noel is given (made worse that under the new CBA it's rumored there won't be a moratorium so there may not be an opportunity to make an offer anywhere else before Noel's offer sheet eats up the max space.

[Captain_Caveman]

I've not seen one argument for Noel that is more convincing than any I've seen for Bogut (seen a lot more for the former too).

Give up a lot for Noel and have him leave in the summer, that or we pay him near the max for strictly defensive purposes, or give up very little for Bogut and have him fill more needs for our team while walking in the summer comfortably or returning for cheap.

Oh, and guess what? If we still really want Noel in the summer, we can still get him. Trading for Bogut gives us a lot of the short-term benefits that Noel does right now while also coming cheaper than Noel. He's also an expiring and doesn't hamper our ability to still get Noel if Danny wants him next summer. I hope he doesn't give him the max, but hey, if there's somehow a lot less demand than expected, we're not at all restricted in signing him.

Not even saying we should do it, because there are different costs with each, but if you are looking for reasons for Noel > Bogut, here's a few...

1. Actually watch them play.

2. We are building for the long-term future, not this year.

3. Bogut is incongruous to our system on both ends of the floor.

4. Noel > Bogut against the Ws or any of the Eastern contenders.

Also, not true we could just have Noel in the offseason. He's a restricted free agent.

IMO, if Bogut is actually healthy at the deadline, the Mavs can get more than the Wolves 2nd for him, which means I am out and then some.

1. Bogut is probably the better player right now, he's in decline and Noel is young, but he's still a more rounded player, he's the better rebounder by a solid margin, better passer, blocks more shots. etc.
2. Only if you think re-signing Noel is a given, and many think that Noel isn't someone you want to tie yourself to a long term deal on (attitude, health, still needs a lot of work)
3.This is dumb, he fit great with GS who runs a better version of what we do, he won't do much for the offense besides screen and pass, but on defense he can still really protect the rim.
4. I don't see any reason to think this, Bogut is certainly better against TOR and CLE, his loss was a huge factor in the Warriors struggles against Cleveland.

Basically it comes down to 2 things:
1. Price. Bogut would likely be much cheaper than Noel
2. Whether Danny is willing to match whatever crazy offer-sheet Noel is given (made worse that under the new CBA it's rumored there won't be a moratorium so there may not be an opportunity to make an offer anywhere else before Noel's offer sheet eats up the max space.

OK, but outside of maybe Soxfan and bfb, I have seen three times as much Bogut as the rest of this board combined over the last four years and think you guys are inventing a player again.

I don't know how I feel about breaking the bank for Noel, but Bogut not worth a first rounder, and is as likely as not to be hurt again by the time the playoffs start.

Give up the 40th overall pick for him at the deadline? So be it, but dude solves none of our problems.

[pasfru]

I've not seen one argument for Noel that is more convincing than any I've seen for Bogut (seen a lot more for the former too).

Give up a lot for Noel and have him leave in the summer, that or we pay him near the max for strictly defensive purposes, or give up very little for Bogut and have him fill more needs for our team while walking in the summer comfortably or returning for cheap.

Oh, and guess what? If we still really want Noel in the summer, we can still get him. Trading for Bogut gives us a lot of the short-term benefits that Noel does right now while also coming cheaper than Noel. He's also an expiring and doesn't hamper our ability to still get Noel if Danny wants him next summer. I hope he doesn't give him the max, but hey, if there's somehow a lot less demand than expected, we're not at all restricted in signing him.

There's several arguments going with Noel over Bogut. Noel is very young and still has plenty of upside. Bogut is just about done. He doesn't score or block shots. He's pretty much a one dimensional big man. Noel is actually fairly skilled offensively for where he is in his development. He can hit a mid range jumper. He runs the floor extremely well and can finish. Noel is the type of acquisition you hope stays because you and he have had the chance to audition each other to see if it's a good fit for both sides. I think the offers of Rozier, Young and non 1st rounders aren't getting it done. I think PHI will want either a comparable young talent/upside or a good pick. I'm assuming Brown, Yabusele and Zizic won't be available so it makes me think a contending team that does have guys they'll part with to load up for the playoffs might be a better fit. Maybe the Spurs offer Kyle Anderson or DeJounte Murray, Lakers off Zubac and Clarkson, CLE offers Felder and a 1st, Bulls off Valentine, Jazz offer Exum or Lyles, Thunder offer Sabonis and a few other teams trying to get into playoff picture might offer up some young guys i.e. PHO, MN, SAC, NOP. We're far down the list of teams that match up well imho.

That's exactly my point, there's no reason to try and trade for him when we can just wait until the offseason to sign him if we really want to.

Noel is a complete negative on offence. He's not called No Hands Noel for nothing.

[pasfru]

Not even saying we should do it, because there are different costs with each, but if you are looking for reasons for Noel > Bogut, here's a few...

1. Actually watch them play.

2. We are building for the long-term future, not this year.

3. Bogut is incongruous to our system on both ends of the floor.

4. Noel > Bogut against the Ws or any of the Eastern contenders.

Also, not true we could just have Noel in the offseason. He's a restricted free agent.

IMO, if Bogut is actually healthy at the deadline, the Mavs can get more than the Wolves 2nd for him, which means I am out and then some.

1. Bogut is probably the better player right now, he's in decline and Noel is young, but he's still a more rounded player, he's the better rebounder by a solid margin, better passer, blocks more shots. etc.
2. Only if you think re-signing Noel is a given, and many think that Noel isn't someone you want to tie yourself to a long term deal on (attitude, health, still needs a lot of work)
3.This is dumb, he fit great with GS who runs a better version of what we do, he won't do much for the offense besides screen and pass, but on defense he can still really protect the rim.
4. I don't see any reason to think this, Bogut is certainly better against TOR and CLE, his loss was a huge factor in the Warriors struggles against Cleveland.

Basically it comes down to 2 things:
1. Price. Bogut would likely be much cheaper than Noel
2. Whether Danny is willing to match whatever crazy offer-sheet Noel is given (made worse that under the new CBA it's rumored there won't be a moratorium so there may not be an opportunity to make an offer anywhere else before Noel's offer sheet eats up the max space.

OK, but outside of maybe Soxfan and bfb, I have seen three times as much Bogut as the rest of this board combined over the last four years and think you guys are inventing a player again.

I don't know how I feel about breaking the bank for Noel, but Bogut not worth a first rounder, and is as likely as not to be hurt again by the time the playoffs start.

Give up the 40th overall pick for him at the deadline? So be it, but dude solves none of our problems.

And Noel does? He's a fairly average rebounder for his size and, yes, blocks shots, but doesn't really do much else.

Bogut can rebound, protect the rim and is a very good passing big man. He's exactly what we need. He won't cost young pieces, he definitely won't cost a first rounder as you think, and he'll be just as healthy as Noel ever will be.

If Noel comes here, there is no scenario where we end up winning. Either he leaves to another team and we're left disappointed because we gave up Rozier and a first rounder for a one-year rental who barely moved the needle, or we match his contract offers in the offseason and are left with a completely one-dimensional injury-prone player being paid near or at the max and therefore crippling this "future" we're building towards as you say (I'd argue a team that signs Al Horford is a team that wants to win-now, but YMMV).

[Andrew McCeltic]

Okafor could work, too, and is better for our cap, and our offense. Worse for our defense. But he's at least a guy in the fold to bring along like Young or Rozier or Brown. I don't think we need to, or can, trade for the answer to our front court problems - Alex Len is the only player who might be a longer-term fit and might be available. But we can at least get an answer, or the Ricky Davis who gets traded for Wally Z, or the Wally who gets traded for Ray Allen. We need a decent center with upside who has value to other teams and might improve. Len, Noel, Okafor, even Vucevic could help in some ways. But the cupboard's bare, and we can't count on the remaining BKN picks to fill it. Plus the pressure to draft for need always distorts the evaluation and decision-making process.

[pasfru]

If Danny really wanted Cousins (which I'm not too sure of myself), I think Okafor would be a good one to send Sacramento's way, could take some of the pressure off of Danny to trade Jaylen or Smart.

Regardless, it all comes down to the price. Philly are really in no position to demand much, but he could come even more expensive than Noel and would only really be here to play the "Wally Z for Ray Allen" role. He's not a particularly good fit otherwise and I wouldn't want him here if it meant we had to keep him. Dude's just a worse rebounding, better scoring Sully and a complete defensive liability.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Depends on price- the market is in a holding pattern right now.

And I'm deferring to Cave on Bogut, IIRC he was right about David Lee, too, and actually watches the Warriors.

Probably we'll get Bogut at the deadline, or after a buyout from Dallas, and you'll all be thrilled to add him and then he'll make a minimal impact in 10 minutes a night.

[Andrew McCeltic]

I'd rather have Tyson Chandler than Bogut, and I'd rather gamble on Alex Len before either.

[BleedGreen1989]

I'm trying to think of Kelly Olynyk deals.

I want no part of paying his next contract which will probably be at LEAST $15mill/year.

[pasfru]

Depends on price- the market is in a holding pattern right now.

And I'm deferring to Cave on Bogut, IIRC he was right about David Lee, too, and actually watches the Warriors.

Probably we'll get Bogut at the deadline, or after a buyout from Dallas, and you'll all be thrilled to add him and then he'll make a minimal impact in 10 minutes a night.

Bogut finished #1, #1, #2 in DRPM the last three seasons while averaging 12 RPG per 36 last year and averaging 10.2 RPG this year in 25.3 MPG. There's more to a player than his stats, but you can't deny that he was a significant part of the Warriors these past few seasons and they've been scrambling to replace him ever since he left.

As for Chandler, he has three years and $39 million left on his contract. That's terrible for next offseason where we'll be hoping to get a max contract player such as Griffin or Hayward. The big thing with Bogut for me is not only his rebounding, rim protection and low price, but his contract. He's taking $11 million off the books next summer, leaving us with a crap ton of flexibility if we get the chance to sign someone like Hayward.

We can debate all day who of Noel, Chandler or Bogut makes the biggest impact as players, but Bogut is easily the best for our contract situation.

[pasfru]

Len could be good, just not sure if Phoenix would want to give him up. He's 23 and is averaging close to a double-double with 2 BPG. He seems like more of a pipe dream than anything. Also another guy who would probably demand a lot of money next summer as a restricted FA. I'd rather just bring Zizic over next year and see how well he fits here, the long-term solution to all this may be sitting right on our laps.

[Andrew McCeltic]

No idea what Phoenix is thinking with Len. Ainge is flexible, McDonough is rudderless.

I would try to get in on something with Minnesota, either giving them Crowder or Amir. Just a pure hunch, but I'd guess Thibs loves Amir and could see him as a long term vet rotation player.

There'd have to be a third team; Rubio, Shabazz to PHI, Amir, Rozier, Olynyk to MIN, Noel, Payne-or-Holmes, protected MIN 1st to BOS... Cap neutral, gives us a younger front court with more upside.

[RR9]

I'd like to target one of the following bigs (in order of realistic to most unrealistic):

Probably available (perhaps a 3way with another team):
Bogut
Gortat
Mason Plumlee
Noel

All these guys are either expiring/on losing teams and are unlikely to re-sign (not sure about Gortat).

Probably not available:
Zbo
Cousins
Whiteside
Favors

Zbo's a 6th man now, but he's been superb as their second unit leader and still seems happy there (given his play). Cuz we all know...wait and see. Whiteside might become available with Bosh out and Dragic not staying healthy (and they're losing so MIA may blow it up). Favors could be buy low with his injuries (also bad for us though) but I think he's a great defensive complement to Horford.

[Banks2Pierce]

I'm trying to think of Kelly Olynyk deals.

I want no part of paying his next contract which will probably be at LEAST $15mill/year.

Have seen this sentiment, but Olynyk deals make no sense to me. He's too important to our team this season to just move for draft compensation. Any deals involving players here beyond this season cut into our potential cap room. Kind of circular.

[BleedGreen1989]

I'm trying to think of Kelly Olynyk deals.

I want no part of paying his next contract which will probably be at LEAST $15mill/year.

Have seen this sentiment, but Olynyk deals make no sense to me. He's too important to our team this season to just move for draft compensation. Any deals involving players here beyond this season cut into our potential cap room. Kind of circular.

I think ,Jonas can do most of what Kelly can. People are acting all concerned with Noel being a FA, well Kelly is in the same boat. I'm not saying trade him for 2nds, but if you can get a useful player back...

Some team desperate for shooting will throw a ton of money at Kelly this summer. Book it.

[pasfru]

I'm trying to think of Kelly Olynyk deals.

I want no part of paying his next contract which will probably be at LEAST $15mill/year.

Have seen this sentiment, but Olynyk deals make no sense to me. He's too important to our team this season to just move for draft compensation. Any deals involving players here beyond this season cut into our potential cap room. Kind of circular.

I think ,Jonas can do most of what Kelly can. People are acting all concerned with Noel being a FA, well Kelly is in the same boat. I'm not saying trade him for 2nds, but if you can get a useful player back...

Some team desperate for shooting will throw a ton of money at Kelly this summer. Book it.

I don't think Kelly nets much value for us either way. Best we just stick with him and let his contract run out.

[Homerclease]

So what are you willing to give up for a 5-month rental of Bogut? What do you think Dallas would demand?

Does Bogut put the Celtics over the top? What's the point?

The point is to be as good as possible this year to attract someone better in the offseason. We look a lot better as a free agent destination if they push Cleveland to 6 games in the ECF as opposed to being knocked out in round 1. They've gotten incrementally better the past two seasons, that trend needs to continue

[Banks2Pierce]

I think ,Jonas can do most of what Kelly can.

Think this really underrates Olynyk's O. Scored about 18 per 36 last year while Jonas scored 10. Much more dynamic outside of shooting. Similarly good on D and it looks like Olynyk's gotten even better on that end.

[BleedGreen1989]

I think ,Jonas can do most of what Kelly can.

Think this really underrates Olynyk's O. Scored about 18 per 36 last year while Jonas scored 10. Much more dynamic outside of shooting. Similarly good on D and it looks like Olynyk's gotten even better on that end.

Well that's why I said "most". Are you comfortable paying Kelly $15-17mill a season?