2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread

[Unbreakable99]

On eye test alone Ball seems to be more athletic and should be a better defender. I haven't watch Fultz in a game yet though. I have only seen highlights which I love. I just wish Ball would drive more. He settles for too many 3s. If they aren't falling will he be able to get his points a better way? His skill level says yes he should. I just haven't seen it yet and I want to see it.

[eagereyez]

Fultz is averaging more steals and blocks per/40 than Ball and they're currently tied in DBPM. At this point I don't think Ball has an edge over Fultz defensively. Fultz has a larger wingspan and is a similar athlete, so it's not surprising. Fultz is the better scorer, Ball is the better facilitator. On a team with Simmons, give me Fultz.

50% of the threes Fultz takes are pull-ups. On the flip-side, a whopping 83% of Ball's threes are assisted. The player that fits best with Simmons will be the one most willing and effective off the ball. On paper, Ball projects to be the more synergistic with Simmons of the two.

UCLA averages 25 assists per game
Ball averages 9.6 assists per game. (15.4 potential assists for Ball -- 9 FGA/game)
UW averages 14 assists per game
Fultz averages 6.6 assists per game. (7.4 potential assists for Fultz -- 14 FGA/game)

Ball is assisted more because there are more assists to go around at UCLA, and he doesn't share nearly the same scoring burden. This isn't a credible argument to use against Fultz. If anything, Fultz' 3P% is even more impressive considering how frequently he's forced to create for himself.

[dkj5061]

On eye test alone Ball seems to be more athletic and should be a better defender. I haven't watch Fultz in a game yet though. I have only seen highlights which I love. I just wish Ball would drive more. He settles for too many 3s. If they aren't falling will he be able to get his points a better way? His skill level says yes he should. I just haven't seen it yet and I want to see it.

Every scouting report I've heard projects Fultz to be a possibly elite defender. His lateral quickness plus amazing wingspan will help him greatly with better and more focused coaching.

[Unbreakable99]

On eye test alone Ball seems to be more athletic and should be a better defender. I haven't watch Fultz in a game yet though. I have only seen highlights which I love. I just wish Ball would drive more. He settles for too many 3s. If they aren't falling will he be able to get his points a better way? His skill level says yes he should. I just haven't seen it yet and I want to see it.

Every scouting report I've heard projects Fultz to be a possibly elite defender. His lateral quickness plus amazing wingspan will help him greatly with better and more focused coaching.

Maybe Fultz will be an elite defender. I'm just telling you want I see on eye test. And again I have not seen Fultz play in a live game. I have only seen highlights so that's not the best way to judge someone. To me Ball appears more athletic. Maybe they both can be elite defenders. I just hope I can watch Fultz live so I can get a better idea how good he is. It's tough for me to really say too much about him. I just know I like a lot about him from highlights and right now he would be my top choice.

[Kobblehead]

UCLA averages 25 assists per game
Ball averages 9.6 assists per game. (15.4 potential assists for Ball -- 9 FGA/game)
UW averages 14 assists per game
Fultz averages 6.6 assists per game. (7.4 potential assists for Fultz -- 14 FGA/game)

Ball is assisted more because there are more assists to go around at UCLA.

Think about why these numbers are what they are. Washington has low assist totals because their primary ball handler and distributor also happens to be a ball dominant alpha scorer. They're no different than the pre-LeBron, Kyrie-era Cavs.

and he doesn't share nearly the same scoring burden.

Yeah, but the thing that you're ignoring is player nature. Fultz would be flirting with 30% usage and chucking up pull-up shots regardless of the team he was on and what scoring burden he was "forced" to undertake. He's a ball dominant alpha scorer, that's what he does.

This isn't a credible argument to use against Fultz.

Um, it's a very credible argument to use for Ball. He's already PROVEN to be willing and able to thrive as a low-maintenance, off the ball shooter when he's not distributing. Which is EXACTLY what we need to pair with Embiid and Simmons. Not a T-Mac or Westbrook that needs to "take turns" with the offense and run the risk of inevitably proving to be incompatible with our stars and need to be shipped out.

Fultz' 3P% is even more impressive considering how frequently he's forced to create for himself.

He's a ridiculously good talent with major shooting skill. That's not in dispute. You're jumping to a conclusion by assuming that his pull-up jumpshot playing style is a result of him being "forced to create for himself." That's likely to just be his nature as a player.

[Sixerscan]

Fultz and Ball have played a combined one road game. Like half their games have been against low D1 opponents. Little early to be making statistical conclusions about 18 year olds.

Fultz choosing UW sure is annoying though, just like when Simmons did this last year. These guys should be in legit programs and it's a shame we aren't going to see Fultz in something like that.

[cksdayoff]

we need scorers and shooters on this team, fultz fits the bill. we need an alpha at the guard/wing spot. if simmons is gonna pass up the ball with 5 seconds remaining, it's either going to embiid or fultz. fultz can play off the ball, if people are expecting lonzo ball to concede his #1 asset, which is distributing, to simmons, then there's no reason for a player like fultz to not do the same exact thing.

when all is said and done, i see fultz being the #1 overall pick. if the sixers don't get that pick and ball is one of their options, i won't complain.

[Ericb5]

josh jackson and lonzo ball, i have concerns about those two creating their own shots at the next level. but both are great at what they do.

i wouldn't mind dsj. obviously i want fultz but dsj wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. he's a scorer that the sixers desperately need and he has an alpha dog mentality.

Don't think creation with them will be an issue. You don't see it because they're efficient with the ball and don't do a lot dribbling. If you mean in terms of how their shots look they're both pretty good about not forcing it against coverage. Josh gets good elevation on his jumper but he does need to iron out his mechanics.

DSJ is my favorite out of the PGs Id just worry about his fit as a ball dominant guard. I think whoever you add needs to be able to compliment Ben's current skillset and also what JoJo does. I don't think you'd fully maximize those 3 players skillsets if they're all together. That being said it's not like it couldn't work because we're still talking about three stud players. Just think there are better fits and this draft provides a little more leeway to not have to go the BPA route.

Smith is one of those guys that could potentially be a difficult fit in a vacuum, but he seems to have legitimate superstar upside, and guys like him really don't come along all that often. I think you take him if you can get him. There are a few other guys that are just as talented so I'm not saying that he necessarily is the first pick, but his talent is pretty special.

I mean, THAT level of talent, and THAT level of athleticism, coupled with THAT kind of motor.

Simmons being able to run the team makes it easier to fit a scoring point guard too. I don't know how he would be in catch and shoot scenarios, coming off screens and such, but he is an electric playmaker in transition, and a great penetrator in the half court. It's not like he can't shoot either. It just isn't a strength of his.

He could easily develop into a third star for us.


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[LloydFree]

Fultz and Ball have played a combined one road game. Like half their games have been against low D1 opponents. Little early to be making statistical conclusions about 18 year olds.

Fultz choosing UW sure is annoying though, just like when Simmons did this last year. These guys should be in legit programs and it's a shame we aren't going to see Fultz in something like that.

I agree. Both players chose teams with questionable coaches and the Pac-12 doesn't have quality talent depth most years. It's gonna really be hard to see Fultz's weaknesses, because every guard UW gets looks great in that system, against that weak competition they play.
But I'm not going to go hard line one way or the other on either player just yet. I gotta see these guys over a full game or so against real players. I've usually seen all I need to see by mid-January.

[eagereyez]

Think about why these numbers are what they are. Washington has low assist totals because their primary ball handler and distributor also happens to be a ball dominant alpha scorer. They're no different than the pre-LeBron, Kyrie-era Cavs.

UW averaged 15 assists per game last year with Dejounte Murray and Marquese Chriss. Their low assist totals are a product of their talent and coaching. Fultz didn't just hop on UW and kill their ball movement.

Yeah, but the thing that you're ignoring is player nature. Fultz would be flirting with 30% usage and chucking up pull-up shots regardless of the team he was on and what scoring burden he was "forced" to undertake. He's a ball dominant alpha scorer, that's what he does.

Fultz was the U18 Fiba MVP, and he wasn't nearly as ball dominant in that tournament. You are hyper-focused on his usage rate on a terrible college team. Surround him with fitting talent and his USG% will go down while his efficiency goes up, just like with anyone else.

Um, it's a very credible argument to use for Ball. He's already PROVEN to be willing and able to thrive as a low-maintenance, off the ball shooter when he's not distributing. Which is EXACTLY what we need to pair with Embiid and Simmons. Not a T-Mac or Westbrook that needs to "take turns" with the offense and run the risk of inevitably proving to be incompatible with our stars and need to be shipped out.

Embiid and Simmons should be surrounded by scorers who can shoot and defend. Someone who can create their own shot on the perimeter and close out playoff games is a major plus. Ball will not benefit from Simmons as much as Fultz. Ball is a limited scorer who gets the majority of his points off wide open 3's. Fultz can shoot the open 3, but can also penetrate off the dish and finish at the rim or get to the line.

He's a ridiculously good talent with major shooting skill. That's not in dispute. You're jumping to a conclusion by assuming that his pull-up jumpshot playing style is a result of him being "forced to create for himself." That's likely to just be his nature as a player.

3 pointers only account for 28% of his FGA, so you're critiquing the 14% of his FGA that are pull up 3's. Yeah, I don't think that's representative of his playstyle at all. I'm sure Curry and Klay average more pull up 3's. It is one of the most efficient shots.

[Kobblehead]

Still think Josh Jackson should be the slight favorite to go #1. Two-way player with age to excellence and intangibles off the charts. If he had a jumper, he'd be god's gift to the NBA.

[Kobblehead]

I don't mind Fultz at Washington. As proven with Simmons, an elite talent is gonna shine through and ball regardless of where he goes.

[Kolkmania]

Fultz and Ball have played a combined one road game. Like half their games have been against low D1 opponents. Little early to be making statistical conclusions about 18 year olds.

Fultz choosing UW sure is annoying though, just like when Simmons did this last year. These guys should be in legit programs and it's a shame we aren't going to see Fultz in something like that.

I agree. Both players chose teams with questionable coaches and the Pac-12 doesn't have quality talent depth most years. It's gonna really be hard to see Fultz's weaknesses, because every guard UW gets looks great in that system, against that weak competition they play.
But I'm not going to go hard line one way or the other on either player just yet. I gotta see these guys over a full game or so against real players. I've usually seen all I need to see by mid-January.

That's incredible. Did you even watch some full games of UCLA/NC State/etc, or are you basing your projections on YouTube highlights so far?

[LloydFree]

Fultz and Ball have played a combined one road game. Like half their games have been against low D1 opponents. Little early to be making statistical conclusions about 18 year olds.

Fultz choosing UW sure is annoying though, just like when Simmons did this last year. These guys should be in legit programs and it's a shame we aren't going to see Fultz in something like that.

I agree. Both players chose teams with questionable coaches and the Pac-12 doesn't have quality talent depth most years. It's gonna really be hard to see Fultz's weaknesses, because every guard UW gets looks great in that system, against that weak competition they play.
But I'm not going to go hard line one way or the other on either player just yet. I gotta see these guys over a full game or so against real players. I've usually seen all I need to see by mid-January.

That's incredible. Did you even watch some full games of UCLA/NC State/etc, or are you basing your projections on YouTube highlights so far?

What's incredible? I said I have to see these players against top competition. I've seen both players over full games in Allstar, HS games and against terrible competition in college. I haven't seen either against any great college competition. I have purposely stopped paying attention to YouTube highlights of guys after getting taken by Andrew Wiggins a couple years ago.

[phiphan]

Still think Josh Jackson should be the slight favorite to go #1. Two-way player with age to excellence and intangibles off the charts. If he had a jumper, he'd be god's gift to the NBA.

Jackson's a year older than his peers at the top though. He'll be 20 in three months. More than a year older than Fultz.

[Unbreakable99]

Article on Fultz being the best prospect in the draft.

https://theringer.com/washington-markelle-fultz-2017-nba-draft-bc5913d07fc2#.ogwkma1jo

[Unbreakable99]

Article on PG prospects.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/12/2/13817206/nba-draft-2017-philadelphia-76ers-dennis-smith-jr-lonzo-ball-nc-state-ucla-kentucky-frank-ntilikina

[GimmeDat]

I think on one hand Ball's low usage rate sounds awesome fit wise, but on the other hand, there's also the scoring issue.

Embiid will be a premier scoring option going forward, that much is for sure. Simmons, I would predict, would be a solid scoring option, but his repertoire is pretty limited at this stage.. you're going to need another major one. If Ball's your PG, you're going to need a top 2-3 option at the wing, no doubt about it. For that reason, I think Fultz is the better option fit wise (and beyond that, I think he's just far and away the best prospect as of now).

[PhilasFinest]

I think on one hand Ball's low usage rate sounds awesome fit wise, but on the other hand, there's also the scoring issue.

Embiid will be a premier scoring option going forward, that much is for sure. Simmons, I would predict, would be a solid scoring option, but his repertoire is pretty limited at this stage.. you're going to need another major one. If Ball's your PG, you're going to need a top 2-3 option at the wing, no doubt about it. For that reason, I think Fultz is the better option fit wise (and beyond that, I think he's just far and away the best prospect as of now).

Isn't Simmons pretty much a wing though??? I mean, sure he can play the PF spot, but he's likely going to spend a majority of his time on offense on the perimeter handling the basketball and driving.

Ball can shoot from 3, has size and is also a playmaker. If he doesn't need the ball in his hands a ton to rack up assists/points, I see that as a plus with someone like Simmons/Embiid who are likely higher usage players. I agree you will need scoring from the other 2 spots (either 2/3 or 2/4) but I dont think you need "top 3 options" at the wing. You get decent shooters/scorers at those spots and i think you could have a really solid core right there.

Embiid is going to be your #1 option in terms of scoring on offense, and he's a do it all type of scorer. Simmons is going to get to the line, drive and create a ton of looks for the surrounding players. If Ball is a 40% shooter from 3, I see no reason why he can't contribute scoring the ball. Run him off the line and he can easily take it off the bounce and find the open man.

[phantom84]

Haven't seen much of Fox, but dude looks impressive on both end