Jonas Valanciunas Proposals

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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#41 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:06 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
No, RPM is definitely worthless with that small of a sample. It requires a large sample.

Calling JV soft on rebounds immediately invalidates that guys opinion. JV has a million flaws but isn't soft on rebounds.

If you can go get Vucevic for half the price, I would agree. Go do it. But JV has more value. Deal with it.


Not a whole lot of justification for that opinion going on here....


He's a good young C, locked up to a nice contract. It's not exactly complicated. Compared to a worse defending, middling efficiency and older player who's never been on a good team? It's clear.


"He's a good young C / older player" - JV is 24, NV is 26. Negligible age difference, Can't see that effecting trade value.
"locked up to a nice contract" - NV has 2 years on his contract after this season at around 12.5mil per, JV has 2 years and a Player Option (which if he's still productive, he'll likely decline) after this one averaging around 16mil per. Don't see any advantage there for Jonas.

I don't particularly have a horse in the fight. I don't think either JV or NV are spectacularly interesting C prospects. They both seem pretty middle of the road for me, but I don't see how you're finding JV to be so much more valuable than NV over fairly weak justifications.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#42 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:09 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Not a whole lot of justification for that opinion going on here....


He's a good young C, locked up to a nice contract. It's not exactly complicated. Compared to a worse defending, middling efficiency and older player who's never been on a good team? It's clear.


"He's a good young C / older player" - JV is 24, NV is 26. Negligible age difference, Can't see that effecting trade value.
"locked up to a nice contract" - NV has 2 years on his contract after this season at around 12.5mil per, JV has 2 years and a Player Option (which if he's still productive, he'll likely decline) after this one averaging around 16mil per. Don't see any advantage there for Jonas.


Is he not older?

Those 2 years and 2000+ minutes definitely affect trade value.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#43 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:14 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
He's a good young C, locked up to a nice contract. It's not exactly complicated. Compared to a worse defending, middling efficiency and older player who's never been on a good team? It's clear.


"He's a good young C / older player" - JV is 24, NV is 26. Negligible age difference, Can't see that effecting trade value.
"locked up to a nice contract" - NV has 2 years on his contract after this season at around 12.5mil per, JV has 2 years and a Player Option (which if he's still productive, he'll likely decline) after this one averaging around 16mil per. Don't see any advantage there for Jonas.


Is he not older?

Those 2 years and 2000+ minutes definitely affect trade value.


He is older, but I don't see it affecting trade value at all. They're still plenty young. And if you're factoring in minutes, shouldn't you be counting the minutes JV played in Europe before he came over to the states? That's at best, a massive stretch.

Looking over their advanced stats for their respective careers, I'm not seeing anything jumping out at me to say these guys are that different of players...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&hint=Nikola+Vucevic&player_id1_select=Nikola+Vucevic&player_id1=vucevni01&hint=Jonas+Valanciunas&player_id2_select=Jonas+Valanciunas&player_id2=valanjo01

You certainly may find some teams that value JV more based on overall fit, but none of the reasons you're pointing out hold much water imo.

For someone like me who's impartial to the whole subject, I find them both pretty mediocre.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#44 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:20 am

More back story from Wikipedia, both players started playing basketball professionally in 2008. NV started playing college basketball in 2008 with the USC Trojans, JV started playing for Perlas in Lithuania's second strongest league and moved up into their strongest league a year later. So if you want to talk age and minutes played in terms of the mileage both players have on their bodies, again, it's pretty comparable to where any difference is completely minor and wouldn't have any noticeable effect on their trade value.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonas_Valan%C4%8Di%C5%ABnas#Lithuanian_beginnings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Vu%C4%8Devi%C4%87#College_career
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#45 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:21 am

I'm over this. I don't even think JV has much value.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#46 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:23 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:I'm over this. I don't even think JV has much value.


Over what? I'm just pointing out facts that are easily researchable.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#47 » by RonaldArtest » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:29 am

DusterBuster wrote:Can anyone explain to me why JV is so highly rated? As someone who doesn't watch much Raptor basketball, his stats have always seemed fairly pedestrian for someone who garners the amount of love he gets. What am I missing?

Offensively he's solid and getting better. Great hands and a soft touch around the rim, he's pretty efficient in the paint. Has the ability to stretch it out to the FT line with relative ease, there's been videos of him hitting corner 3's.

Where some fans see his value and misuse is in Casey's system, which on offense seemingly only needs bigs for picks, boards and put backs. Essentially garbage men. The sets are all highly guard-dominant, and not often enough (according to some fans) do the bigs get incorporated.

It's not to completely cut and dry though. While Val is rarely fed for post play, he doesn't always seal his man off and present as low as he needs to be in order to be effective. To compound matters he hasn't shown much as far as passing is concerned, and can be a black hole when passed to. Although he's looked a bit better in this regard this year.

The main issue with Val, especially in Casey's system and in the day and age of stretch bigs, is that he's not the most mobile fellow. He doesn't hedge out quickly, and gets exposed in the PnR/P. He's not the most athletic big, and often Casey's schemes call for funnelling the ball handler along the baseline and into the helping C. Which worked well with Biyombo, but not always great with Val.

However he's a good man defender, cleans the glass well, and plays like a warrior. He has his faults, but fans find Casey isn't using him offensively to his fullest potential. In Europe he showed good PnR play and he's rarely used like that in the NBA. His numbers are efficient, and historically compared to Derozan it seems like it makes sense to feed the higher percentage player - Val in the paint compared to DD in the mid range. That's why many believe he could with proper usage be a 18/10 guy.

I'm on the fence about him. While I like what he does offensively - powerful like a bull but with a soft touch - defensively he leaves you wanting more. I think he somewhat missed his golden age of the back to the basket C, but he still holds a lot of value IMO. Good contract, still young, loves the game and wants to improve. Anyways, hope this little bit of insight helps mate!
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#48 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:33 am

RonaldArtest wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:Can anyone explain to me why JV is so highly rated? As someone who doesn't watch much Raptor basketball, his stats have always seemed fairly pedestrian for someone who garners the amount of love he gets. What am I missing?

Offensively he's solid and getting better. Great hands and a soft touch around the rim, he's pretty efficient in the paint. Has the ability to stretch it out to the FT line with relative ease, there's been videos of him hitting corner 3's.

Where some fans see his value and misuse is in Casey's system, which on offense seemingly only needs bigs for picks, boards and put backs. Essentially garbage men. The sets are all highly guard-dominant, and not often enough (according to some fans) do the bigs get incorporated.

It's not to completely cut and dry though. While Val is rarely fed for post play, he doesn't always seal his man off and present as low as he needs to be in order to be effective. To compound matters he hasn't shown much as far as passing is concerned, and can be a black hole when passed to. Although he's looked a bit better in this regard this year.

The main issue with Val, especially in Casey's system and in the day and age of stretch bigs, is that he's not the most mobile fellow. He doesn't hedge out quickly, and gets exposed in the PnR/P. He's not the most athletic big, and often Casey's schemes call for funnelling the ball handler along the baseline and into the helping C. Which worked well with Biyombo, but not always great with Val.

However he's a good man defender, cleans the glass well, and plays like a warrior. He has his faults, but fans find Casey isn't using him offensively to his fullest potential. In Europe he showed good PnR play and he's rarely used like that in the NBA. His numbers are efficient, and historically compared to Derozan it seems like it makes sense to feed the higher percentage player - Val in the paint compared to DD in the mid range. That's why many believe he could with proper usage be a 18/10 guy.

I'm on the fence about him. While I like what he does offensively - powerful like a bull but with a soft touch - defensively he leaves you wanting more. I think he somewhat missed his golden age of the back to the basket C, but he still holds a lot of value IMO. Good contract, still young, loves the game and wants to improve. Anyways, hope this little bit of insight helps mate!


Exactly what I was looking for, a proper scouting report on his current strengths and weaknesses. Cheers!
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#49 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:37 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:I'm over this. I don't even think JV has much value.


Over what? I'm just pointing out facts that are easily researchable.


The debate. I think it's clear JV has more value than Vuc. But overall, don't think he has much value.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#50 » by loserX » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:38 am

RonaldArtest wrote:I'm on the fence about him. While I like what he does offensively - powerful like a bull but with a soft touch - defensively he leaves you wanting more. I think he somewhat missed his golden age of the back to the basket C, but he still holds a lot of value IMO. Good contract, still young, loves the game and wants to improve. Anyways, hope this little bit of insight helps mate!


Just want to say this is a great post: exactly the kind of insight that "home fans" can provide about their team's players. Thanks for posting it!
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#51 » by Mamba4Goat » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:38 am

What about Tyke and a 1st?
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#52 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:41 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:I'm over this. I don't even think JV has much value.


Over what? I'm just pointing out facts that are easily researchable.


The debate. I think it's clear JV has more value than Vuc. But overall, don't think he has much value.


Be nice if you could more accurately prove why when nothing seems to justify why this is "clear". I agree with you that I don't think either has a ton of value, but as for JV vs NV, I'd say the numbers, age and contracts seem to indicate that they'd overall probably have roughly similar value. Again, you have to account for the team trading for the player as some certainly may find one guy to be a better fit than the other based on the style of play they implement. But in terms of a major value difference, I'm not seeing anything to prove why one guy should be "clearly" higher than the other, outside of it just being your own personal opinion.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#53 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Dec 5, 2016 12:58 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Over what? I'm just pointing out facts that are easily researchable.


The debate. I think it's clear JV has more value than Vuc. But overall, don't think he has much value.


Be nice if you could more accurately prove why when nothing seems to justify why this is "clear". I agree with you that I don't think either has a ton of value, but as for JV vs NV, I'd say the numbers, age and contracts seem to indicate that they'd overall probably have roughly similar value. Again, you have to account for the team trading for the player as some certainly may find one guy to be a better fit than the other based on the style of play they implement. But in terms of a major value difference, I'm not seeing anything to prove why one guy should be "clearly" higher than the other, outside of it just being your own personal opinion.


I already explained why dude. Age, efficiency, slighty better defender, proven part of a good team.Vucevic has scored a few more poitns per 100 possessions on much worse efficiency and makes slightly less. The edge in value is clear.

Where did I say major value difference? Clear doesn't mean major,. Hell it doesn't even mean substantial.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#54 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 1:16 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
The debate. I think it's clear JV has more value than Vuc. But overall, don't think he has much value.


Be nice if you could more accurately prove why when nothing seems to justify why this is "clear". I agree with you that I don't think either has a ton of value, but as for JV vs NV, I'd say the numbers, age and contracts seem to indicate that they'd overall probably have roughly similar value. Again, you have to account for the team trading for the player as some certainly may find one guy to be a better fit than the other based on the style of play they implement. But in terms of a major value difference, I'm not seeing anything to prove why one guy should be "clearly" higher than the other, outside of it just being your own personal opinion.


I already explained why dude. Age, efficiency, slighty better defender, proven part of a good team.Vucevic has scored a few more poitns per 100 possessions on much worse efficiency and makes slightly less. The edge in value is clear.

Where did I say major value difference? Clear doesn't mean major,. Hell it doesn't even mean substantial.


A "clear" difference would indicate a meaningful difference. If something is clear, that means it's easy to see. There's nothing easy to see with why JV has even an edge on NV imo. The reasons "explained" all seem to be over-exaggerations or poorly disguised bias.

Age/mileage? Not a real factor given the minimal age difference and their respective pre-NBA history.
Efficiency? The player comparison shows only minor variances in both players, generally all within the same range.
Slightly better defender? Again, kinda a made up thing. Even if he's a couple of percentage points, this is a thing you'll claim is true because you said "slightly". The actual facts show they're so close that any real difference wouldn't sway an impartial party one way or another.
Proven part of a good team? Yea, ok.... so what? You can't hold the Magic's inability to put together a good team as a reason why that makes JV more valuable than NV. This is a complete nonfactor for anyone without a Raptor bias.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#55 » by Purple+Black » Mon Dec 5, 2016 1:39 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Over what? I'm just pointing out facts that are easily researchable.


The debate. I think it's clear JV has more value than Vuc. But overall, don't think he has much value.


Be nice if you could more accurately prove why when nothing seems to justify why this is "clear". I agree with you that I don't think either has a ton of value, but as for JV vs NV, I'd say the numbers, age and contracts seem to indicate that they'd overall probably have roughly similar value. Again, you have to account for the team trading for the player as some certainly may find one guy to be a better fit than the other based on the style of play they implement. But in terms of a major value difference, I'm not seeing anything to prove why one guy should be "clearly" higher than the other, outside of it just being your own personal opinion.


After reading through your dialogue I'm tempted to respond; hopefully this puts the argument to an end.

Valanciunas was a top 5 pick for good reason. Length, agility and skillset are all selling points. 7ft with a 7-6 wingspan, agile, soft touch around the basket, natural rebounding instincts, high efficiency pnr, and his ft conversion rate all add to his value.

Valanciunas by no means is a complete player, he leaves you wanting on the defensive end, he does not anchor the defense as you'd like your big to. He lacks composure at times when trusted with the ball, with all that said he's only 4 seasons into the NBA and is still fairly young wrt to bigs, and far from a finished product. Val was very raw coming into the NBA, and has consistently improved every season despite being on a short leash and playing under a coach that's imported a system from his championship run with the MAVS. Casey views bigs as defensive anchors/garbagemen, Tyson Chandler, hasn't left his system.

Vucevic on the other hand spent 3 years in college before entering the NBA, he wasn't 'raw' coming in, he's had free reign to develop and to some extent pad his stats out in post-SVG disney. He's capped off and hasn't added much to his game, Magic have seemingly limited his own contributions to the team and he's averaging career lows in minutes (apart from his rookie year). Valanciunas has consistently maintained a higher PER over him.

All else set aside, Val hasn't broken the 30mpg barrier despite being the primary C on his team, he's been playing on a top tier team and in my pov will at some point in his career average 20 & 12+ given the right situation. If I was starting a team I'd much rather have him as part of my core and build around him, Vucevic wouldn't even be on my radar. What we have to be clear about is that JV plays for an extremely defense-oriented coach. Every damn decision he makes is based on his strength, defense. JV is average on that end. Jakob Poeltl, another big who has been losing out due to coach's mindset, Pascal Siakam (projected 2nd rnd pick) has been starting on our team while our lottery pick rots on the bench. Why? Defensive-minded bigs are favoured. Biyombo - Valanciunas, same deal.

In the playoffs last year before getting injured, he was averaging 15, 13, 1.5 in 28mpg.

This includes the 3 games against Miami, matched up directly against Hassan Whiteside where he averaged 18, 13, 2 in 30mpg and was clearly the most dominant big on the court.

By no means am I trying to paint a rosy image of the player, he leaves much to be desired, but pegging his value to a run of the mill 26yr old C on an abysmal team is asinine.

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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#56 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 1:51 am

Hansari wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
The debate. I think it's clear JV has more value than Vuc. But overall, don't think he has much value.


Be nice if you could more accurately prove why when nothing seems to justify why this is "clear". I agree with you that I don't think either has a ton of value, but as for JV vs NV, I'd say the numbers, age and contracts seem to indicate that they'd overall probably have roughly similar value. Again, you have to account for the team trading for the player as some certainly may find one guy to be a better fit than the other based on the style of play they implement. But in terms of a major value difference, I'm not seeing anything to prove why one guy should be "clearly" higher than the other, outside of it just being your own personal opinion.


After reading through your dialogue I'm tempted to respond; hopefully this puts the argument to an end.

Valanciunas was a top 5 pick for good reason. Length, agility and skillset are all selling points. 7ft with a 7-6 wingspan, agile, soft touch around the basket, natural rebounding instincts, high efficiency pnr, and his ft conversion rate all add to his value.

Valanciunas by no means is a complete player, he leaves you wanting on the defensive end, he does not anchor the defense as you'd like your big to. He lacks composure at times when trusted with the ball, with all that said he's only 4 seasons into the NBA and is still fairly young wrt to bigs, and fall from a finished product. Val was very raw coming into the NBA, and has consistently improved every season despite being on a short leash and playing under a coach that's imported a system from his championship run with the MAVS. Casey views bigs as defensive anchors/garbagemen, Tyson Chandler, hasn't left his system.

Vucevic on the other hand spent 3 years in college before entering the NBA, he wasn't 'raw' coming in, he's had free reign to develop and to some extent pad his stats out in post-SVG disney. He's capped off and hasn't added much to his game, Magic have seemingly limited his own contributions to the team and he's averaging career lows in minutes (apart from his rookie year). Valanciunas has consistently maintained a higher PER over him.

All else set aside, Val hasn't broken the 30mpg barrier despite being the primary C on his team, he's been playing on a top tier team and in my pov will at some point in his career average 20 & 12+ given the right situation. If I was starting a team I'd much rather have him as part of my core and build around him.

In the playoffs last year before getting injured, he was averaging 15, 13, 1.5 in 28mpg.

This includes the 3 games against Miami, matched up directly against Hassan Whiteside he averaged 18, 13, 2 in 30mpg and was clearly the most dominant big on the court.

By no means am I trying to paint a rosy image of the player, he leaves much to be desired, but pegging his value to a run of the mill 26yr old C on an abysmal team is asinine.

Cheers.


As I've mentioned, where a players picked really should stop mattering a couple years into the league.

I just don't really buy the assertion that Val was more raw coming in then Vuc. It's not like Val never played a second of professional basketball and then just walked into the NBA whereas Vuc got some major curating. Val played in a professional Lithuanian leagues for the same amount of years as Vuc played college ball.

So, serious question, why has Val never cracked 30mpg despite being the primary C on his team? You're seemingly pointing to that as a positive, but you could argue for that being a negative as well. This is a curious question because I've always wondered why he doesn't get more run with them.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#57 » by Purple+Black » Mon Dec 5, 2016 1:59 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Hansari wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Be nice if you could more accurately prove why when nothing seems to justify why this is "clear". I agree with you that I don't think either has a ton of value, but as for JV vs NV, I'd say the numbers, age and contracts seem to indicate that they'd overall probably have roughly similar value. Again, you have to account for the team trading for the player as some certainly may find one guy to be a better fit than the other based on the style of play they implement. But in terms of a major value difference, I'm not seeing anything to prove why one guy should be "clearly" higher than the other, outside of it just being your own personal opinion.


After reading through your dialogue I'm tempted to respond; hopefully this puts the argument to an end.

Valanciunas was a top 5 pick for good reason. Length, agility and skillset are all selling points. 7ft with a 7-6 wingspan, agile, soft touch around the basket, natural rebounding instincts, high efficiency pnr, and his ft conversion rate all add to his value.

Valanciunas by no means is a complete player, he leaves you wanting on the defensive end, he does not anchor the defense as you'd like your big to. He lacks composure at times when trusted with the ball, with all that said he's only 4 seasons into the NBA and is still fairly young wrt to bigs, and fall from a finished product. Val was very raw coming into the NBA, and has consistently improved every season despite being on a short leash and playing under a coach that's imported a system from his championship run with the MAVS. Casey views bigs as defensive anchors/garbagemen, Tyson Chandler, hasn't left his system.

Vucevic on the other hand spent 3 years in college before entering the NBA, he wasn't 'raw' coming in, he's had free reign to develop and to some extent pad his stats out in post-SVG disney. He's capped off and hasn't added much to his game, Magic have seemingly limited his own contributions to the team and he's averaging career lows in minutes (apart from his rookie year). Valanciunas has consistently maintained a higher PER over him.

All else set aside, Val hasn't broken the 30mpg barrier despite being the primary C on his team, he's been playing on a top tier team and in my pov will at some point in his career average 20 & 12+ given the right situation. If I was starting a team I'd much rather have him as part of my core and build around him.

In the playoffs last year before getting injured, he was averaging 15, 13, 1.5 in 28mpg.

This includes the 3 games against Miami, matched up directly against Hassan Whiteside he averaged 18, 13, 2 in 30mpg and was clearly the most dominant big on the court.

By no means am I trying to paint a rosy image of the player, he leaves much to be desired, but pegging his value to a run of the mill 26yr old C on an abysmal team is asinine.

Cheers.


As I've mentioned, where a players picked really should stop mattering a couple years into the league.

I just don't really buy the assertion that Val was more raw coming in then Vuc. It's not like Val never played a second of professional basketball and then just walked into the NBA whereas Vuc got some major curating. Val played in a professional Lithuanian leagues for the same amount of years as Vuc played college ball.

So, serious question, why has Val never cracked 30mpg despite being the primary C on his team? You're seemingly pointing to that as a positive, but you could argue for that being a negative as well. This is a curious question because I've always wondered why he doesn't get more run with them.


Appreciate the question,

Casey is the answer to your question. He's a defensive tactician, still stuck to some extent in his days as the defensive specialist for the championship MAVS, Chandler was a dream big for him and they had a very successful run. Every damn decision he makes is based on his strength and that's coach's biggest weakness. JV is average on that end. Jakob Poeltl, another big who has been losing out due to coach's mindset, Pascal Siakam (projected 2nd rnd pick) has been starting on our team while our lottery pick rots on the bench. Why? Defensive-minded bigs are favoured. Biyombo - Valanciunas, same deal.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#58 » by Mr Swagtastic » Mon Dec 5, 2016 2:06 am

Seriously perplexed by the offers here if you call them that. I mean Tyreke Evans and a pick is interesting but we are not looking for draft picks as we are looking to win now. I love the DeAndre Jordan deal but I don't think LA moves him now. I think they keep their core intact unless they get a clear upgrade and here they are moving a very good defensive player for depth and a better offensive center not something I would do.

The Suns deal is horrible, we don't need Chandler he's injury prone, old and not that great. PJ Tucker is meh and I don't like Bledsoe here as a shooting guard
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#59 » by DusterBuster » Mon Dec 5, 2016 2:11 am

Hansari wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Hansari wrote:
After reading through your dialogue I'm tempted to respond; hopefully this puts the argument to an end.

Valanciunas was a top 5 pick for good reason. Length, agility and skillset are all selling points. 7ft with a 7-6 wingspan, agile, soft touch around the basket, natural rebounding instincts, high efficiency pnr, and his ft conversion rate all add to his value.

Valanciunas by no means is a complete player, he leaves you wanting on the defensive end, he does not anchor the defense as you'd like your big to. He lacks composure at times when trusted with the ball, with all that said he's only 4 seasons into the NBA and is still fairly young wrt to bigs, and fall from a finished product. Val was very raw coming into the NBA, and has consistently improved every season despite being on a short leash and playing under a coach that's imported a system from his championship run with the MAVS. Casey views bigs as defensive anchors/garbagemen, Tyson Chandler, hasn't left his system.

Vucevic on the other hand spent 3 years in college before entering the NBA, he wasn't 'raw' coming in, he's had free reign to develop and to some extent pad his stats out in post-SVG disney. He's capped off and hasn't added much to his game, Magic have seemingly limited his own contributions to the team and he's averaging career lows in minutes (apart from his rookie year). Valanciunas has consistently maintained a higher PER over him.

All else set aside, Val hasn't broken the 30mpg barrier despite being the primary C on his team, he's been playing on a top tier team and in my pov will at some point in his career average 20 & 12+ given the right situation. If I was starting a team I'd much rather have him as part of my core and build around him.

In the playoffs last year before getting injured, he was averaging 15, 13, 1.5 in 28mpg.

This includes the 3 games against Miami, matched up directly against Hassan Whiteside he averaged 18, 13, 2 in 30mpg and was clearly the most dominant big on the court.

By no means am I trying to paint a rosy image of the player, he leaves much to be desired, but pegging his value to a run of the mill 26yr old C on an abysmal team is asinine.

Cheers.


As I've mentioned, where a players picked really should stop mattering a couple years into the league.

I just don't really buy the assertion that Val was more raw coming in then Vuc. It's not like Val never played a second of professional basketball and then just walked into the NBA whereas Vuc got some major curating. Val played in a professional Lithuanian leagues for the same amount of years as Vuc played college ball.

So, serious question, why has Val never cracked 30mpg despite being the primary C on his team? You're seemingly pointing to that as a positive, but you could argue for that being a negative as well. This is a curious question because I've always wondered why he doesn't get more run with them.


Appreciate the question,

Casey is the answer to your question. He's a defensive tactician, still stuck to some extent in his days as the defensive specialist for the championship MAVS, Chandler was a dream big for him and they had a very successful run. Every damn decision he makes is based on his strength and that's coach's biggest weakness. JV is average on that end. Jakob Poeltl, another big who has been losing out due to coach's mindset, Pascal Siakam (projected 2nd rnd pick) has been starting on our team while our lottery pick rots on the bench. Why? Defensive-minded bigs are favoured. Biyombo - Valanciunas, same deal.


Fair enough.

Getting back to Val vs Vuc, I'm still fairly unconvinced either is more valuable than the other. The difference between 24 and 26 is nothing as far as I'm concerned. Outside of that, they seem like practically identical players. Big lumbering bigmen who are more offensive than defensive minded (which is boiling it down to the most base viewpoint).

That said, I really appreciate you clearly explaining why you view him as more valuable. You did make a really compelling argument regarding the Magic seemingly starting to work Vuc into a lesser role for some reason. I'd need to know more about the situation in Orlando to definitively say that's because they're upset with his production/play this year to buy into the narrative that Val is definitively more valuable than Vuc, but it's an interesting point.
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Re: Jonas Valanciunas Proposals 

Post#60 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Dec 5, 2016 5:25 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Be nice if you could more accurately prove why when nothing seems to justify why this is "clear". I agree with you that I don't think either has a ton of value, but as for JV vs NV, I'd say the numbers, age and contracts seem to indicate that they'd overall probably have roughly similar value. Again, you have to account for the team trading for the player as some certainly may find one guy to be a better fit than the other based on the style of play they implement. But in terms of a major value difference, I'm not seeing anything to prove why one guy should be "clearly" higher than the other, outside of it just being your own personal opinion.


I already explained why dude. Age, efficiency, slighty better defender, proven part of a good team.Vucevic has scored a few more poitns per 100 possessions on much worse efficiency and makes slightly less. The edge in value is clear.

Where did I say major value difference? Clear doesn't mean major,. Hell it doesn't even mean substantial.


A "clear" difference would indicate a meaningful difference. If something is clear, that means it's easy to see. There's nothing easy to see with why JV has even an edge on NV imo. The reasons "explained" all seem to be over-exaggerations or poorly disguised bias.

Age/mileage? Not a real factor given the minimal age difference and their respective pre-NBA history.
Efficiency? The player comparison shows only minor variances in both players, generally all within the same range.
Slightly better defender? Again, kinda a made up thing. Even if he's a couple of percentage points, this is a thing you'll claim is true because you said "slightly". The actual facts show they're so close that any real difference wouldn't sway an impartial party one way or another.
Proven part of a good team? Yea, ok.... so what? You can't hold the Magic's inability to put together a good team as a reason why that makes JV more valuable than NV. This is a complete nonfactor for anyone without a Raptor bias.


Minor variance in efficiency? That's so far from truth. One guy rocks a 60%+ TS% every year and the other floats around 53%. That's a massive difference.

Part of the Magic's inability to be good has to do with Vuc's shortcomings, so yes I can hold that against him.

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