New York Knicks early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava)

[dakomish23]

I think he's pretty much just an average point guard for now, and I don't think he's going to improve much more from that. If he can give us what he's been giving us the last few games for the rest of the season, I have no problem keeping him, because anyone else we get will cost at least as much, probably more, and having continuity is something the Knicks always lack

In terms of maintaining chemistry, I have no problem with keeping Rose, paying him higher annually, etc. I do have a problem with a deal that goes beyond 2 seasons. We need his contract to expire when 'Melo's does and not a minute later.

The tank in 19-20 will make Hinkie proud

[Clyde Frazier]

Haven’t had a chance to skim the thread, so apologies if some of this has already been mentioned. I was against the rose and noah moves, but the lesser moves phil has made have actually been decent:

- He hasn't traded any first round picks, which has been a staple of past regimes


- He's basically using the ACB league in spain as a farm system, and we have have 3 really talented rotation players in KP, hernangomez and kuz from there


- Jennings has turned out to be a steal at $5 mil having bought into being a pass first PG (career low in FGAs per game, per 36 and per 100)
. He's an erratic player, but pushes the pace and has developed great chemistry with KP specifically.

- Lee has started slow, but is a great fit at starting SG and i think he's on a fine contract


- Justin holiday also proving to be an impact player (key part of many net positive lineups this year)

- Hornacek hiring doing wonders as he’s a competent coach which was nonexistent last year

Rose has actually been on the upswing over the last 8 games or so (solid production on about league avg efficiency), but my main fear is signing him to a long term deal. I have no interest in that.


[Capn'O]

At this point, I'm more interested in the trend line than the ranking. And by "interested," I mean "interested" and not "haha, you were wrong Rose is actually great" as I have my own serious reservations with him. IIRC, just recently, he was the worst PG in RPM but the eye test tells me he's making progress in finding his teammates, picking his spots, and defense. The things that improve your RPM because you're playing better team ball. His jump from the worst to meh reflects that. He's still holding those putrid games from earlier that sack the rankings. So does he continue to improve? Level off? Revert? That's what we (and hopefully the Knicks brass!) should be looking at.

Yeah, he's been better than he was with the Bulls, though that's not saying much. My gut tells me to trust the long-term sample over the short-term one, but he might be at average starter level by advanced stats by the end of the season. Who knows.

If by that, you mean the past three to four games absolutely. We need to see a sustained period of this type of play. I'm more encouraged by what I'm increasingly seeing in games than the stat upticks. He's starting to know where guys are going to be when he puts his head down to the basket. At first, he only knew how to find Melo and otherwise would put it up himself. Only simple passes otherwise. Now he's kicking to KP, Holiday, and Lee on the perimeter and is making more entry passes to the post and then moving off ball. Then, he's had a few more elaborate two man plays with Melo. Rose as a multi-threat player is a much more effective player than the kamikaze player he had been. His ability to play more as a cog and then pick his spots for his still very good scoring ability will improve those TS%, RPM, WS/48, and so forth. It already has from the season's start. How much so will come out in the wash.

I think at this point, the entire thread was pointed at NY having Rose and Noah or Calderon and RoLo, plus a bunch less payroll next year.

And what I've been arguing is that this view of basing the entire offseason on the comparison of Rose/Noah to Jose/RoLo still doesn't look at the Knicks' moves holistically or account for the new salary reality. Many more pieces were involved, some of which are playing great ball for the team. Guys like Willy, Jennings, Holiday, Kuz, and Lee have all played really well and the investments in KOQ and KP are maturing. That entire group is what? $30-35 million/year total give or take? That's really good value right now.

Noah's salary presents a long term risk that is already rearing its head. That said, at present time the Knicks could sustain a Noah injury pretty easily and have actually gone on this run with him sitting a few games. KOQ and Willy are playing great ball and KP can play the C for some matchups with Melo at the 4. All have specifically attributed their improvement to Noah's influence. Combined, the Knicks bigs corps have a very reasonable salary impact.

He's been mildly better than last year, similar to 2 years ago, so still a well below average starter paid like a star. And at the same time trading Lopez for him meant they signed the Noah deal. Which looks really bad in hindsight and worse if there are any injuries.

The biggest long term concern is still with the point guard position. Jennings is an easy yes to bring back so far. Whether you even can bring both him and Rose back (I believe NYK would qualify for the MLE if they extend Rose as opposed to re-signing him?) is uncertain. Let alone whether you'd want both.

[bondom34]

I think at this point, the entire thread was pointed at NY having Rose and Noah or Calderon and RoLo, plus a bunch less payroll next year.

And what I've been arguing is that this view of basing the entire offseason on the comparison of Rose/Noah to Jose/RoLo still doesn't look at the Knicks' moves holistically or account for the new salary reality. Many more pieces were involved, some of which are playing great ball for the team. Guys like Willy, Jennings, Holiday, Kuz, and Lee have all played really well and the investments in KOQ and KP are maturing. That entire group is what? $30-35 million/year total give or take? That's really good value right now.

Noah's salary presents a long term risk that is already rearing its head. That said, at present time the Knicks could sustain a Noah injury pretty easily and have actually gone on this run with him sitting a few games. KOQ and Willy are playing great ball and KP can play the C for some matchups with Melo at the 4. All have specifically attributed their improvement to Noah's influence. Combined, the Knicks bigs corps have a very reasonable salary impact.

He's been mildly better than last year, similar to 2 years ago, so still a well below average starter paid like a star. And at the same time trading Lopez for him meant they signed the Noah deal. Which looks really bad in hindsight and worse if there are any injuries.

The biggest long term concern is still with the point guard position. Jennings is an easy yes to bring back so far. Whether you even can bring both him and Rose back (I believe NYK would qualify for the MLE if they re-sign Rose?) is uncertain. Let alone whether you'd want both.

I think the second part is what I'm saying. I'd rather (much much rather) Lopez and an expiring Calderon than Noah and an expiring Rose. That Noah contract is a massive black hole waiting to happen.

[Capn'O]

I think the second part is what I'm saying. I'd rather (much much rather) Lopez and an expiring Calderon than Noah and an expiring Rose. That Noah contract is a massive black hole waiting to happen.

But it's Calderon, Lopez, Grant, no Justin Holiday, and you still need other players in free agency. Hornacek's coaching style required penetrating guards. You can't trot Calderon out there for what JH is trying to do and Grant wasn't ready.

But they got Jennings for cheap, you say? Why not make it a longer contract? Jennings was picked up from the leftover bin and entering free agency you don't know who will end up there. If the Knicks had pursued him on July 1 as their starter you're looking at a much different contract for him and you don't know how far back he'd come from the Achilles. 12+ million over multiple years and he immediately breaks down? Same old Knicks! Then you need a backup shooting guard in a market where Solomon Hill got $48 million and your backup point guards are Jerian Grant and Calderon D'oh Knicks!

It's a safe bet that Lopez will provide more production per dollar over the course of his contract than Noah. That said, from a team development standpoint where you're looking to bring a few young bigs into lead roles, Noah provides a lot. Lots of talk around the league about how much the Wolves miss Garnett (and Tayshaun Prince.) Their production isn't missed but their presence is. As much as I love Lopez (and I LOVE me some Robin Lopez), several times a game you see the Noah instructing the bigs after a play and that's something you didn't get from him. You see KOQ screaming after tracking down a tough rebound or loose ball. You see Willy making heads up defensive plays that he never made in the ACB. Then maybe you get into the playoffs and Noah stops worrying about his ticky tack injuries and these players see what he really brings when the games matter.

Three years down the line, maybe the comparison isn't Lopez/Noah but WHG/KOQ vs. the field. Or maybe you move one of them as a major piece in a trade to fill the gaps. The value in Noah is his impact on the mental makeup of a team - a fairly young team that will be bringing in another 1st rounder next year.

[bondom34]

I think the second part is what I'm saying. I'd rather (much much rather) Lopez and an expiring Calderon than Noah and an expiring Rose. That Noah contract is a massive black hole waiting to happen.

But it's Calderon, Lopez, Grant, no Justin Holiday, and you still need other players in free agency. Hornacek's coaching style required penetrating guards. You can't trot Calderon out there for what JH is trying to do and Grant wasn't ready.

But they got Jennings for cheap, you say? Why not make it a longer contract? Jennings was picked up from the leftover bin and entering free agency you don't know who will end up there. If the Knicks had pursued him on July 1 as their starter you're looking at a much different contract for him and you don't know how far back he'd come from the Achilles. 12+ million over multiple years and he immediately breaks down? Same old Knicks! Then you need a backup shooting guard in a market where Solomon Hill got $48 million and your backup point guards are Jerian Grant and Calderon D'oh Knicks!

It's a safe bet that Lopez will provide more production per dollar over the course of his contract than Noah. That said, from a team development standpoint where you're looking to bring a few young bigs into lead roles, Noah provides a lot. Lots of talk around the league about how much the Wolves miss Garnett (and Tayshaun Prince.) Their production isn't missed but their presence is. As much as I love Lopez (and I LOVE me some Robin Lopez), several times a game you see the Noah instructing the bigs after a play and that's something you didn't get from him. You see KOQ screaming after tracking down a tough rebound or loose ball. You see Willy making heads up defensive plays that he never made in the ACB. Then maybe you get into the playoffs and Noah stops worrying about his ticky tack injuries and these players see what he really brings when the games matter.

Three years down the line, maybe the comparison isn't Lopez/Noah but WHG/KOQ vs. the field. Or maybe you move one of them as a major piece in a trade to fill the gaps. The value in Noah is his impact on the mental makeup of a team - a fairly young team that will be bringing in another 1st rounder next year.

Except for a place like NY, you're now clogged up for free agency with Noah's contract. I don't dispute his locker room presence, or Rose's abillty to get to the rim better than Calderon, but that there were better options and the way it was approached was bad. Heck even with a year of Jennings and no Rose or Noah and signing another big I'd feel better.

[Texas Chuck]

I think the second part is what I'm saying. I'd rather (much much rather) Lopez and an expiring Calderon than Noah and an expiring Rose. That Noah contract is a massive black hole waiting to happen.

But it's Calderon, Lopez, Grant, no Justin Holiday, and you still need other players in free agency. Hornacek's coaching style required penetrating guards. You can't trot Calderon out there for what JH is trying to do and Grant wasn't ready.

I'd still dump Calderon on the Lakers as the Bulls did. Then why not linsanity? Surely Melo is in a different place where he's not threatened by Lin and can recognize how much he'd help? Then Seth Curry signed for nothing in Dallas. I bet he'd have taken the same money from the Knicks over the Mavs, no? And if not, just sweeten it slightly.

Now its Lopez,Lin,Curry over Rose Noah which is a clear win. And you could probably still do Grant for Holiday so you have him too.

Of course its never quite that easy with the benefits of hindsight, but its not remotely unreasonable to believe there aren't lots of scenarios more attractive than Rose/Noah.

[Capn'O]

I don't disagree that there were better and/or different tacks. I was actually an advocate for exploring Lopez (who I love) trades in addition to exploring some of what you said. Knicks are very deep up front. That said, standing pat with Jose/Robin was not an option and I think the early returns support that what the Knicks ultimately did was more of an upgrade to last year's roster than initially credited. What was missing was a more holistic view of the moves that accounts for emergence of ancillary players and personnel fit. The mushy gushy people-y stuff.

[Prospect Dong]

I'd take 1 year of Rose/Jennings with a shot at Chris Paul next offseason. Sometimes you have to take risks.

To be honest, I don't see a shot at Chris Paul. I also don't know if getting mid 30s Chris Paul added to the Knicks makes much a difference. But more I highly doubt he'd leave LA for it.

The Clippers are a team with chemistry issues that looks to have peaked a few years ago in a loaded western conference. Paul has said publicly that he wants to play with Melo in NY. The Knicks are the type of organization that would max him out long term for the short term benefits. Very few contenders/pretenders need a PG, have a friend/same age star like Melo and the big market like NY PLUS would be willing to max him out. I don't see why it's so hard to see Paul to NY as realistic.

And then maybe you have 1-2 years with 33 y/o Melo, 33y/o CP3 and 3rd year KP going up against 32 y/o Lebron with all those miles.

Not even the most talented players manage to stay 33 years old for more than a single year. I'd expect that age number to keep going up over time.

[DOT]

I think the second part is what I'm saying. I'd rather (much much rather) Lopez and an expiring Calderon than Noah and an expiring Rose. That Noah contract is a massive black hole waiting to happen.

But it's Calderon, Lopez, Grant, no Justin Holiday, and you still need other players in free agency. Hornacek's coaching style required penetrating guards. You can't trot Calderon out there for what JH is trying to do and Grant wasn't ready.

I'd still dump Calderon on the Lakers as the Bulls did. Then why not linsanity? Surely Melo is in a different place where he's not threatened by Lin and can recognize how much he'd help? Then Seth Curry signed for nothing in Dallas. I bet he'd have taken the same money from the Knicks over the Mavs, no? And if not, just sweeten it slightly.

Now its Lopez,Lin,Curry over Rose Noah which is a clear win. And you could probably still do Grant for Holiday so you have him too.

Of course its never quite that easy with the benefits of hindsight, but its not remotely unreasonable to believe there aren't lots of scenarios more attractive than Rose/Noah.

Still need a starting 2 guard, and not Lee who only came because of Rose/Noah, and at anyone coming to NY for the same amount as anywhere else. You do realize Curry probably saved over a million dollars in taxes by going to Texas instead of New York?
And while I'm not a fan of the Noah contract, everyone's making it seem like Amare 2.0, which it isn't
Like Cap mentioned, Solomon freaking Hill got 48 million, and (allegedly) the Wiz were offering Noah 80 mil (I believe this because they gave that money to Ian Mahinmi), and Mozgov got 72 within seconds of free agency. That's what set the market right there. I'm not too bothered because the effect Noah has on the locker room is pretty clear. Him and Lee held a meeting, which was the turning point in the early season, and O'quinn and Hernangomez (our backups) look waaaay better than anyone could have predicted. Kris is now actually mean on the court this year. You don't think that's Noah?
Is he worth 18 mil for the next four years? I doubt it. However, that is what you pay for an average starting center now, and it's not disastrous, just bad.
Like I keep saying, y'all don't understand that there's a middle ground between superstar and scrub

[HartfordWhalers]

Like I keep saying, y'all don't understand that there's a middle ground between superstar and scrub

I really don't think the issue is that people don't understand this.

[dakomish23]

I think the second part is what I'm saying. I'd rather (much much rather) Lopez and an expiring Calderon than Noah and an expiring Rose. That Noah contract is a massive black hole waiting to happen.

But it's Calderon, Lopez, Grant, no Justin Holiday, and you still need other players in free agency. Hornacek's coaching style required penetrating guards. You can't trot Calderon out there for what JH is trying to do and Grant wasn't ready.

I'd still dump Calderon on the Lakers as the Bulls did. Then why not linsanity? Surely Melo is in a different place where he's not threatened by Lin and can recognize how much he'd help? Then Seth Curry signed for nothing in Dallas. I bet he'd have taken the same money from the Knicks over the Mavs, no? And if not, just sweeten it slightly.

Now its Lopez,Lin,Curry over Rose Noah which is a clear win. And you could probably still do Grant for Holiday so you have him too.

Of course its never quite that easy with the benefits of hindsight, but its not remotely unreasonable to believe there aren't lots of scenarios more attractive than Rose/Noah.

Cmon man. This again. That **** is just not true.

[Prospect Dong]

But it's Calderon, Lopez, Grant, no Justin Holiday, and you still need other players in free agency. Hornacek's coaching style required penetrating guards. You can't trot Calderon out there for what JH is trying to do and Grant wasn't ready.

I'd still dump Calderon on the Lakers as the Bulls did. Then why not linsanity? Surely Melo is in a different place where he's not threatened by Lin and can recognize how much he'd help? Then Seth Curry signed for nothing in Dallas. I bet he'd have taken the same money from the Knicks over the Mavs, no? And if not, just sweeten it slightly.

Now its Lopez,Lin,Curry over Rose Noah which is a clear win. And you could probably still do Grant for Holiday so you have him too.

Of course its never quite that easy with the benefits of hindsight, but its not remotely unreasonable to believe there aren't lots of scenarios more attractive than Rose/Noah.

Still need a starting 2 guard, and not Lee who only came because of Rose/Noah, and :lol: at anyone coming to NY for the same amount as anywhere else. You do realize Curry probably saved over a million dollars in taxes by going to Texas instead of New York?
And while I'm not a fan of the Noah contract, everyone's making it seem like Amare 2.0, which it isn't
Like Cap mentioned, Solomon freaking Hill got 48 million, and (allegedly) the Wiz were offering Noah 80 mil (I believe this because they gave that money to Ian Mahinmi), and Mozgov got 72 within seconds of free agency. That's what set the market right there. I'm not too bothered because the effect Noah has on the locker room is pretty clear. Him and Lee held a meeting, which was the turning point in the early season, and O'quinn and Hernangomez (our backups) look waaaay better than anyone could have predicted. Kris is now actually mean on the court this year. You don't think that's Noah?
Is he worth 18 mil for the next four years? I doubt it. However, that is what you pay for an average starting center now, and it's not disastrous, just bad.
Like I keep saying, y'all don't understand that there's a middle ground between superstar and scrub

Were this the case, you could give up on New York ever signing a max free agent. No way you can match what those guys take home without state tax. In fact, we'd expect texas and florida to have first pick of every max free agent. But ask Dallas how that's worked out for them so far.

When New York has a decent team it's at least competitive with places with lower taxes and/or lower cost of living, because it's New York.

[DOT]

I'd still dump Calderon on the Lakers as the Bulls did. Then why not linsanity? Surely Melo is in a different place where he's not threatened by Lin and can recognize how much he'd help? Then Seth Curry signed for nothing in Dallas. I bet he'd have taken the same money from the Knicks over the Mavs, no? And if not, just sweeten it slightly.

Now its Lopez,Lin,Curry over Rose Noah which is a clear win. And you could probably still do Grant for Holiday so you have him too.

Of course its never quite that easy with the benefits of hindsight, but its not remotely unreasonable to believe there aren't lots of scenarios more attractive than Rose/Noah.

Still need a starting 2 guard, and not Lee who only came because of Rose/Noah, and :lol: at anyone coming to NY for the same amount as anywhere else. You do realize Curry probably saved over a million dollars in taxes by going to Texas instead of New York?
And while I'm not a fan of the Noah contract, everyone's making it seem like Amare 2.0, which it isn't
Like Cap mentioned, Solomon freaking Hill got 48 million, and (allegedly) the Wiz were offering Noah 80 mil (I believe this because they gave that money to Ian Mahinmi), and Mozgov got 72 within seconds of free agency. That's what set the market right there. I'm not too bothered because the effect Noah has on the locker room is pretty clear. Him and Lee held a meeting, which was the turning point in the early season, and O'quinn and Hernangomez (our backups) look waaaay better than anyone could have predicted. Kris is now actually mean on the court this year. You don't think that's Noah?
Is he worth 18 mil for the next four years? I doubt it. However, that is what you pay for an average starting center now, and it's not disastrous, just bad.
Like I keep saying, y'all don't understand that there's a middle ground between superstar and scrub

Were this the case, you could give up on New York ever signing a max free agent. No way you can match what those guys take home without state tax. In fact, we'd expect texas and florida to have first pick of every max free agent. But ask Dallas how that's worked out for them so far.

When New York has a decent team it's at least competitive with places with lower taxes and/or lower cost of living, because it's New York.

Any max player would be, most likely, a superstar, and the amount they would lose due to taxes is irrelevant compared to the extra income from endorsements
Seth Curry is making 2.9 million this year
For people making over a million dollars NY income tax is 8.82%
That brings him down to 2,644,000
Minus whatever dues are for the players union
Apparently, his net worth is 11 million
I'm sure that 300,000 plus dollars means a lot more to him than someone like Chris Paul, who has a net worth of around 100 million, and would naturally have a ton of endorsements thrown his way

[Prospect Dong]

Still need a starting 2 guard, and not Lee who only came because of Rose/Noah, and :lol: at anyone coming to NY for the same amount as anywhere else. You do realize Curry probably saved over a million dollars in taxes by going to Texas instead of New York?
And while I'm not a fan of the Noah contract, everyone's making it seem like Amare 2.0, which it isn't
Like Cap mentioned, Solomon freaking Hill got 48 million, and (allegedly) the Wiz were offering Noah 80 mil (I believe this because they gave that money to Ian Mahinmi), and Mozgov got 72 within seconds of free agency. That's what set the market right there. I'm not too bothered because the effect Noah has on the locker room is pretty clear. Him and Lee held a meeting, which was the turning point in the early season, and O'quinn and Hernangomez (our backups) look waaaay better than anyone could have predicted. Kris is now actually mean on the court this year. You don't think that's Noah?
Is he worth 18 mil for the next four years? I doubt it. However, that is what you pay for an average starting center now, and it's not disastrous, just bad.
Like I keep saying, y'all don't understand that there's a middle ground between superstar and scrub

Were this the case, you could give up on New York ever signing a max free agent. No way you can match what those guys take home without state tax. In fact, we'd expect texas and florida to have first pick of every max free agent. But ask Dallas how that's worked out for them so far.

When New York has a decent team it's at least competitive with places with lower taxes and/or lower cost of living, because it's New York.

Any max player would be, most likely, a superstar, and the amount they would lose due to taxes is irrelevant compared to the extra income from endorsements
Seth Curry is making 2.9 million this year
For people making over a million dollars NY income tax is 8.82%
That brings him down to 2,644,000
Minus whatever dues are for the players union
Apparently, his net worth is 11 million
I'm sure that 300,000 plus dollars means a lot more to him than someone like Chris Paul, who has a net worth of around 100 million, and would naturally have a ton of endorsements thrown his way

You're not applying marginal tax rates correctly. The 8.82% rate applies to the amount over $1 million, with a lower rate below. So we're not talking about $300k - but somewhere closer to half that amount.

For Chris Paul (or Amare, or Noah), not only his his tax bill a big multiple of that amount, it's also a higher proportion of his income - that's how progressive taxation works. And the "extra income from endorsements in a big market" gets thrown around a lot, but no one ever provides much evidence of it making a difference for top-tier players. We're not talking about Mozgov advertising some local pizza place, Paul et al are global, not national, certainly not local brands.

Maybe Curry cares a little more about his last dollar than Paul, even once you take into account the absolute and relative differences in their tax bill. But both of them know that there's more to a career and to life than minimising state tax. That's why Paul is in Cali and a whole bunch of guys are in New York - not because those places have to overpay for every FA.

[DOT]

That's why Paul is in Cali and a whole bunch of guys are in New York - not because those places have to overpay for every FA.

Max players and old guys go where they think they can win
Everyone else goes to where they can get paid the most

[Prospect Dong]

That's why Paul is in Cali and a whole bunch of guys are in New York - not because those places have to overpay for every FA.

Max players and old guys go where they think they can win
Everyone else goes to where they can get paid the most

I suspect a lot of the benefits of being in NY rather than, say, Sacramento accrue to younger guys. And, like I say, max guys stand to lose a lot more from tax, and taxpayer franchises can't just outbid the others for them. So you'd actually expect to see the opposite.

But, yeah, at the margin early career guys who haven't banked much yet probably lean towards a low tax destination, holding things like opportunity, coaching and fit constant - which of course they're not. I suspect NY probably could have had Curry for more or less what Dallas offered him if they could sell him on the role.

[DowNY]

Whoever thinks RoLo & expiring Calderon > Noah & expiring Rose obviously never had the venomous player of Calderon statue on their team & do not understand how horrible he is for even the presence amongst your sidelines.

[HartfordWhalers]

Whoever thinks RoLo & expiring Calderon > Noah & expiring Rose obviously never had the venomous player of Calderon statue on their team & do not understand how horrible he is for even the presence amongst your sidelines.

You could buy Calderon out and never have him report. Or trade him with 2 2nds to a team like LAL.

On the other hand, that Noah contract is going to linger for a long time. And isn't the asset Lopez was.

I'm really not sure why this point needs to kept being made, but I will keep making it if you guys want.

Noah is horrible value and horrible for your flexibility going forward. Lopez was good value. Both Rose and Calderon are expiring and don't have any deal going forward. So looking at it from a year from now perspective, it should be really clear which one is better. Incredibly clear.

[Slava]

Calderon is venemous? WTF? He even said himself his role was probably not a starting PG at his age but was forced into it due to lack of options with the Knicks.