Is Earl Watson doing a good job?

[gaspar]

[...] However there is a pretty high correlation between assist rate and offensive efficiency. The others near the top (Houston, San Antonio, Cleveland, LAC) are all top 10 in assist ratio and Toronto is somewhat of an anomaly. [...]

No, not really. The bottom 5 teams in offensive efficiency are 76ers, Magic, Mavericks, Hawks and Grizzlies. They are ranked 5th, 6th, 12th, 15th and 22nd in assist percentage.

[bwgood77]

[...] However there is a pretty high correlation between assist rate and offensive efficiency. The others near the top (Houston, San Antonio, Cleveland, LAC) are all top 10 in assist ratio and Toronto is somewhat of an anomaly. [...]

No, not really. The bottom 5 teams in offensive efficiency are 76ers, Magic, Mavericks, Hawks and Grizzlies. They are ranked 5th, 6th, 12th, 15th and 22nd in assist percentage.

It's always going to come down to context with individual teams as well, the players they have, etc, and particularly with poor shooting teams such as the Sixers and Magic, assists don't do a lot of good when they don't convert at a high rate. Doesn't matter if you assist 100% of your baskets if you shoot 30% as a team.

That's why I said "pretty high" and not "extremely high", but maybe "pretty high" was even an overstatement.

I think the main complaint here stems not just for the sheer fact that we have an absurdly low assist rate, but that the primary culprit is that we just don't always have a lot of ball movement in general, and people don't like watching a lot of iso play and would like to seem more unselfish team ball and that it would be nice to see more people involved in the offense every night, rather than people taking turns on stepping up while some other players often at times do a lot of watching. I think the feel is that with more team ball players and chemistry would develop faster which would down the road likely lead to more wins.

[JDJ26]

It seems Watson is here to keep the team morale up while doing a pseudo-tank for good draft picks.

[GMATCallahan]

[...] However there is a pretty high correlation between assist rate and offensive efficiency. The others near the top (Houston, San Antonio, Cleveland, LAC) are all top 10 in assist ratio and Toronto is somewhat of an anomaly. [...]

No, not really. The bottom 5 teams in offensive efficiency are 76ers, Magic, Mavericks, Hawks and Grizzlies. They are ranked 5th, 6th, 12th, 15th and 22nd in assist percentage.

It's always going to come down to context with individual teams as well, the players they have, etc, and particularly with poor shooting teams such as the Sixers and Magic, assists don't do a lot of good when they don't convert at a high rate. Doesn't matter if you assist 100% of your baskets if you shoot 30% as a team.

That's why I said "pretty high" and not "extremely high", but maybe "pretty high" was even an overstatement.

I think the main complaint here stems not just for the sheer fact that we have an absurdly low assist rate, but that the primary culprit is that we just don't always have a lot of ball movement in general, and people don't like watching a lot of iso play and would like to seem more unselfish team ball and that it would be nice to see more people involved in the offense every night, rather than people taking turns on stepping up while some other players often at times do a lot of watching. I think the feel is that with more team ball players and chemistry would develop faster which would down the road likely lead to more wins.

I believe that we would need more of a historical study to determine the correlation between assist percentage and Offensive Rating (points scored per possession); one quarter of one season is not necessarily going to tell us much. Generally speaking, an assisted field goal is going to be much easier than an unassisted field goal, and thus assisted field goals are more likely to produce an efficient field goal percentage. However, more assists can also yield more turnovers. One also needs to conjure with the quality of a team's self-created field goal attempts and self-created scorers, as that caliber can vary widely. Moreover, players who can successfully create their field goal attempts are also more likely to reach the free throw line. Statistically speaking, assists possess no direct relationship to free throw attempts, even if assist-like passes often spawn free throw attempts, so that factor also must be considered. And then once needs to consider a team's caliber of three-point shooting, whether of the self-created or assisted variety. So there are many factors—many spokes in the wheel—that potentially determine an offense's efficiency. (Offensive rebounding could be another.)

What is true is that in the abstract, or as an isolated factor, assists probably do not bear a consistent relationship with Offensive Rating. However, assists in conjunction with other positive elements probably constitute a major difference maker, hence Golden State's stunning success right now. The Warriors move the ball and facilitate many catch-and-shoot looks, yet Golden State also features two of the NBA's best players at creating their own shot, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Or consider the Suns in '92-'93 and '93-'94, when Phoenix led the NBA in Offensive Rating. The Suns featured two players, in Charles Barkley and Kevin Johnson, who ranked among the best passers at their respective positions. Those two players also excelled at creating their own shots, drawing multiple defenders, and reaching the free throw line at high volumes. Additionally, the Suns possessed other good passers, good catch-and-shoot three-point shooters, and good assisted finishers who understood their roles and did not generally try to do too much. Those Phoenix teams really covered all the offensive bases.

A quick look at the NBA in '88-'89 is potentially revealing. The top two teams in Offensive Rating were the Lakers (113.8 points scored per 100 possessions) and the Suns (113.1 points scored per 100 possessions). Meanwhile, Los Angeles tied (with Denver) for second in assists per game at 27.83, following by Phoenix at 27.80. The Nuggets' Offensive Rating, however, was about average, thirteenth out of twenty-five clubs and 108.6, compared to the league mean of 107.8. And the league leader in assists was the first-year expansion Charlotte Hornets (the original Charlotte Hornets), who finished just twenty-first among twenty-five teams in Offensive Rating at 103.7. Like most first-year expansion clubs, or like Philadelphia now, the Hornets lacked for All-Star-caliber individual scorers, so they needed to assist each other in order to score—their abundance of assists suggested their lack of actual talent. Thus, in that sort of case, assists can be misleading. But clearly they were not misleading in the case of the Lakers and Suns, who posted the two best records in the Western Conference with 57 and 55 wins, respectively, and blew through the first two rounds of the Western Conference Playoffs (the Lakers going 7-0, the Suns going 7-1) before meeting in the Western Conference Finals. In addition to plenty of assisting and excellent ball movement, though, the Lakers and Suns both featured a player who excelled at creating his own field goal attempts and at reaching the free throw line: Magic Johnson and Kevin Johnson, respectively. And those clubs featured other players who could create their own shots, such as James Worthy and Tom Chambers, although those guys would not have been nearly as efficient without Magic Johnson and Kevin Johnson. Yet that combination of ball movement plus players who could excel at creating their own shot is probably what separated the Lakers and Suns. The Nuggets possessed some of that self-created element in addition to their assists, but not to the same extent. Thus Denver proved average offensively. The Hornets, conversely, seriously lacked that self-created element and thus constituted one of the most inefficient offensive teams in the NBA despite their league-leading assists average.

By the same token, featuring the NBA's best at creating his own shot will not, by itself, translate to an especially efficient offense. Indeed, Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls in '88-'89 ranked twelfth in Offensive Rating at 109.1, just ahead of Denver. The Bulls placed sixth in assists average that season, but their team leader in assists by far was Jordan himself. But when Phil Jackson took over as Chicago's head coach the following year, '89-'90, and instituted the triangle offense in part to improve the Bulls' ball movement and balance, the Bulls improved to fifth in Offensive Rating at 112.3. (The Lakers again led the league in '89-'90, this time at 114.0, while Phoenix finished third at 113.1. However, while the Suns ranked seventh in assists average and the Bulls eighth, the Lakers fell all the way to eighteenth. Thus, again, the relationship between assists and Offensive Rating is unclear at best.)

Assists are ideal, I would say, but interpreted in isolation, no one element will be that revealing or possess a direct bearing on offensive efficiency. As for the current Suns, though, their lack of assists (worst in the NBA) clearly represents a problem because the team's Offensive Rating is poor (twenty-third of thirty). Thus their self-created scoring opportunities are not that fruitful—Toronto gets away with a lack of assists (twenty-fifth right now in assists average), because the Raptors feature two guards who excel at creating their own offense, with one (Kyle Lowry) excelling at creating and converting his own three-point field goal attempts (7.0 per game total at a .422 clip) and the other (DeMar DeRozan) excelling at creating and converting his own free throw attempts (8.9 per game total at a .833 clip).

The Suns do not feature those kinds of players, try as some of their guards might, so their lack of assists indeed constitute a negative defect. Brandon Knight can create his own shot, but his conversion percentage is obviously poor. Eric Bledsoe can reach the rim, but his jump shot is impure and unreliable. Devin Booker might one day be very good at all of this stuff, but right now he is still feeling his way and learning the art of discretion.

In short, not every team needs a lot of assists to be efficient offensively, but the Suns need a lot more than they are currently recording.

[GMATCallahan]

... However, more assists can also yield more turnovers. ...

A quick look at the NBA in '88-'89 is potentially revealing. The top two teams in Offensive Rating were the Lakers (113.8 points scored per 100 possessions) and the Suns (113.1 points scored per 100 possessions). Meanwhile, Los Angeles tied (with Denver) for second in assists per game at 27.83, following by Phoenix at 27.80. The Nuggets' Offensive Rating, however, was about average, thirteenth out of twenty-five clubs and 108.6, compared to the league mean of 107.8. And the league leader in assists was the first-year expansion Charlotte Hornets (the original Charlotte Hornets), who finished just twenty-first among twenty-five teams in Offensive Rating at 103.7. Like most first-year expansion clubs, or like Philadelphia now, the Hornets lacked for All-Star-caliber individual scorers, so they needed to assist each other in order to score—their abundance of assists suggested their lack of actual talent. Thus, in that sort of case, assists can be misleading. But clearly they were not misleading in the case of the Lakers and Suns, who posted the two best records in the Western Conference with 57 and 55 wins, respectively, and blew through the first two rounds of the Western Conference Playoffs (the Lakers going 7-0, the Suns going 7-1) before meeting in the Western Conference Finals. In addition to plenty of assisting and excellent ball movement, though, the Lakers and Suns both featured a player who excelled at creating his own field goal attempts and at reaching the free throw line: Magic Johnson and Kevin Johnson, respectively. And those clubs featured other players who could create their own shots, such as James Worthy and Tom Chambers, although those guys would not have been nearly as efficient without Magic Johnson and Kevin Johnson. Yet that combination of ball movement plus players who could excel at creating their own shot is probably what separated the Lakers and Suns. The Nuggets possessed some of that self-created element in addition to their assists, but not to the same extent. Thus Denver proved average offensively. The Hornets, conversely, seriously lacked that self-created element and thus constituted one of the most inefficient offensive teams in the NBA despite their league-leading assists average.

In '88-'89, the Suns recorded the fourth-most assists in the NBA yet the fourth-fewest turnovers; that kind of relationship is what one is looking for, although it will never happen on a team with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.

[GMATCallahan]

In terms of coaching, I have nothing against Watson, but I am glad that we now all know that last year's losing was primarily Hornacek's fault ...

[bondom34]

Read on Twitter

[WeekapaugGroove]

Just read the lowe interview with watson. Still talking about playoffs. Not sure i find that funny, sad, or just annoying. Every time i hear a suns staff member mention that word the famous jim mora interview pops into my head lol.

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[dremill24]

Earl needs to find a way to get his players easier shots. He also needs to stop having below average defenders put major ball pressure on guys 35ft from the basket. This walking fortune cookie schtick was tired from the get-go. Xs and 0s matter at some point.

[bwgood77]

Just read the lowe interview with watson. Still talking about playoffs. Not sure i find that funny, sad, or just annoying. Every time i hear a suns staff member mention that word the famous jim mora interview pops into my head lol.

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Just thinking about that tirade makes me laugh every time.

[darealjuice]

Just read the lowe interview with watson. Still talking about playoffs. Not sure i find that funny, sad, or just annoying. Every time i hear a suns staff member mention that word the famous jim mora interview pops into my head lol.

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What's wrong with him still being optimistic? We're only a quarter of the way through the season and hopefully TJ, who was arguably playing like our best player, returns from whatever happened to him soon. I don't personally think we're going anywhere, but it's too early in the season for the team to give up. I'd hate to play 60 more games with the mindset that the season is pointless. If we get to the All Star break with 10 wins or some **** and he's still talking about making a run, then I'll be annoyed, but it's not surprising at all they are still trying to keep to their preseason goal 22 games in.

[RaisingArizona]

[WeekapaugGroove]

Just read the lowe interview with watson. Still talking about playoffs. Not sure i find that funny, sad, or just annoying. Every time i hear a suns staff member mention that word the famous jim mora interview pops into my head lol.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

What's wrong with him still being optimistic? We're only a quarter of the way through the season and hopefully TJ, who was arguably playing like our best player, returns from whatever happened to him soon. I don't personally think we're going anywhere, but it's too early in the season for the team to give up. I'd hate to play 60 more games with the mindset that the season is pointless. If we get to the All Star break with 10 wins or some **** and he's still talking about making a run, then I'll be annoyed, but it's not surprising at all they are still trying to keep to their preseason goal 22 games in.

I dont mind optimism but i find talk of playoffs insulting to the intelligence of fans who watch this team play. They are simply not good enough to make the playoffs; i think deep down they knew this coming into the season.

I get that questions like that are a no win situation, its not like hes gonna say we stink and i hope we get the first pick. But i would much rather them say something like "our goal is to build a longterm contender, were going to do things like give out core pieces minutes in hope of accomplishing that."

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[WeekapaugGroove]

I literally laughed out loud when i read that this morning.

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[darealjuice]

Just read the lowe interview with watson. Still talking about playoffs. Not sure i find that funny, sad, or just annoying. Every time i hear a suns staff member mention that word the famous jim mora interview pops into my head lol.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

What's wrong with him still being optimistic? We're only a quarter of the way through the season and hopefully TJ, who was arguably playing like our best player, returns from whatever happened to him soon. I don't personally think we're going anywhere, but it's too early in the season for the team to give up. I'd hate to play 60 more games with the mindset that the season is pointless. If we get to the All Star break with 10 wins or some **** and he's still talking about making a run, then I'll be annoyed, but it's not surprising at all they are still trying to keep to their preseason goal 22 games in.

I dont mind optimism but i find talk of playoffs insulting to the intelligence of fans who watch this team play. This is simply not good enough to make the playoffs.

I get that questions like that are a no win answer, its not like hes gonna say we stink and i hope we get the first pick. But i would much rather them say something like "our goal is to build a longterm contender, were going to do things like give out core pieces minutes in hope of accomplishing that."

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I see what you mean, and I wouldn't have minded him saying that either, I just don't mind the response he gave. He's right that we're only a few games out of playoffs, but unless our players start playing a lot better than they have been that number is going to get bigger and eventually they'll have to face reality. It's not like he said we'll do it either, only that it's still our goal.

[WeekapaugGroove]

What's wrong with him still being optimistic? We're only a quarter of the way through the season and hopefully TJ, who was arguably playing like our best player, returns from whatever happened to him soon. I don't personally think we're going anywhere, but it's too early in the season for the team to give up. I'd hate to play 60 more games with the mindset that the season is pointless. If we get to the All Star break with 10 wins or some **** and he's still talking about making a run, then I'll be annoyed, but it's not surprising at all they are still trying to keep to their preseason goal 22 games in.

I dont mind optimism but i find talk of playoffs insulting to the intelligence of fans who watch this team play. This is simply not good enough to make the playoffs.

I get that questions like that are a no win answer, its not like hes gonna say we stink and i hope we get the first pick. But i would much rather them say something like "our goal is to build a longterm contender, were going to do things like give out core pieces minutes in hope of accomplishing that."

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I see what you mean, and I wouldn't have minded him saying that either, I just don't mind the response he gave. He's right that we're only a few games out of playoffs, but unless our players start playing a lot better than they have been that number is going to get bigger and eventually they'll have to face reality. It's not like he said we'll do it either, only that it's still our goal.

Ultimately its actions that speak louder than words and really the actions of this franchise since this summer have pointed to them trying to build for the longhaul rather than some foolish run at an 8 seed. Drafting two teenagers in the top 10 and starting a 20 year old at sg arent short-term moves. I just hope they stay the course.

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[batsmasher]

Earl now officially sits in my "all good until we need a real coach" camp. There's on outside chance that he improves enough to stay on anyways.

Solid interview. I'll take any national media coverage at all lol.

[GMATCallahan]

Earl needs to find a way to get his players easier shots. He also needs to stop having below average defenders put major ball pressure on guys 35ft from the basket. This walking fortune cookie schtick was tired from the get-go. Xs and 0s matter at some point.

There is a way: tell McDonough to trade Bledsoe, Knight, or both so that Watson can play Ulis and the Suns can learn whether Ulis' future is as Phoenix's point guard of the future, the Suns' backup point guard of the future, or neither.

Of course, the Suns do need to wait for the right deals to materialize.

[GMATCallahan]

Earl now officially sits in my "all good until we need a real coach" camp. There's on outside chance that he improves enough to stay on anyways.

Solid interview. I'll take any national media coverage at all lol.

... agreed. Frankly, I would not be surprised to see Dan Majerle in the post a couple of years down the line ...

[GMATCallahan]

I dont mind optimism but i find talk of playoffs insulting to the intelligence of fans who watch this team play. They are simply not good enough to make the playoffs; i think deep down they knew this coming into the season.

I get that questions like that are a no win situation, its not like hes gonna say we stink and i hope we get the first pick. But i would much rather them say something like "our goal is to build a longterm contender, were going to do things like give out core pieces minutes in hope of accomplishing that."

Yes, I believe that anyone with a clue knew that the Suns would not constitute a playoff club this year. The question is really whether they will avoid last place ... and, given the hope for another high lottery pick, whether anyone should really want them to.

Unfortunately, the Suns are still paying the price of their decision, five years ago, to hold onto Steve Nash and Grant Hill until the bitter end in a desperate and ultimately failed chase for the eighth seed (with which Phoenix was going to, what, stage a surprising title run led by two guys older than Earl Watson is now?). The Suns should have moved toward a full-fledged rebuild in 2011. Instead, there was a semi-rebuild in 2012 that went poorly, a semi-rebuild in 2013 that went well yet failed to produce either a playoff berth or a high lottery pick, ambiguity in 2014 and 2015, and then finally more of a full-fledged rebuild in 2016 yet one that will still need to be followed up by at least two more full-fledged rebuilding years, most likely. Phoenix delayed this "dark period" a half-decade ago, so now the Suns need to go through it now.

A half-decade ago, one of Sarver's assistants should have been playing B.B. King's "The Thrill Is Gone" at every available opportunity to try and convince the boss that keeping Nash (and to some extent Hill) in an effort to cling to fading glory would only be counterproductive. Yes, you could still see maximum court spacing to optimize the pick-and-roll. Yes, you could still see Nash exploit those spatial-temporal dynamics to run perfect pick-and-rolls. But the overall level of talent and explosiveness was no longer there, and Nash and Hill were too old to increase their scoring volumes to the point where they would manage to compensate in any substantial manner. In Nash's last two seasons, Phoenix was no longer quite elite offensively (ninth in Offensive Rating both years), and the Suns' defense remained terrible. Nash remained a highly efficient shooter and a premier playmaker (still arguably the best combined passer-shooter in the game), but with his inability or unwillingness to increase his scoring volume (probably an age-related matter pertaining to energy) and his dubious defense, one could even question whether he remained an elite player—at least beyond context-dependent offensive value. The Suns were akin to a classic rock band where three or four of the original members were dead or departed, and the lead singer remains to basically front the equivalent of a cover band while retaining the original name and licensing. Were the exorbitant ticket prices for the skeletal nostalgic music really worthwhile?

Thus, instead of finishing up a five-year rebuilding plan, the Suns are just now in the early stages of that plan.

Of course, something could always change. Perhaps Phoenix trades for an unheralded young player who unexpectedly blossoms and leads a rapid resurgence; maybe the Suns deal for a veteran star who binds the young players together and accelerates their developmental process. However, those chances are more slim than strong.