2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[mihail_petkov]

There are 3-4 candidates - Harden, Westbrook, Durant and maybe Curry.

Kawhi?

Yep, I edited my post. I forgot to add him as a dark horse. I don't believe in his chances because his numbers are not so impressive. If Spurs win 67+ maybe he will be close to the MVP.

[Impuniti]

LeBron is coasting too much and his advanced stats are not very good (for his level).
Clippers will finish with at least 10 wins less than Warriors so I don't see a chance for Chris Paul.
Leonard is playing for a good team with good record but his defensive impact is worse then latest two years. Also his numbers are not so impressive.

There are 3-4 candidates - Harden, Westbrook, Durant and maybe Curry.

If Warriors win 70, one of Curry and Durant will win the MVP.
If they win less than 70, it's between Harden and Westbrook and who is having a better record.
Dark horse - Leonard.

I'd put Lebron over Leonard easily even if he's not in the best form.

[Homer38]

I think Westbrook will win the MVP if the thunder finish the season with about 50 wins and that Westbrook has on average a triple double.A triple double for a season would be one of the most incredible feat in sports history.

Harden also deserves to be considered, the rockets could win 55 games this year.

[draftnightsuit]

Right now it's between Westbrook, Harden, Lebron, and Kawhi

[mtron929]

^^^

That "stat padding" idea needs to stop. Not sure who started it but its flatly incorrect and has been proven so.

Why do you care so much about this? I'm not expert on what Westbrook is thinking, but what if he IS stat padding and winning? What if doing both for him is possible? And what if many don't see a problem with that?

I would like him to continue to do whatever possible to get triple doubles. We have entire websites dedicated to statistics, there's nothing wrong with trying to get triple doubles. You think guys don't want to get their stats? Do you think Michael Jordan didn't want to win scoring titles?

Because stat padding is not something good? It is chasing individual accomplishment over the importance of team, which he isn't doing? Everyone wants to get stats but "stat padding" isn't that.

Why do people want to tear him down by calling him a stat padder is the better question when its clear he's not and there's such a drastic drop without him? Because doing that makes zero sense to me.

This is a youtube video that pretty much demonstrates what I see.

Watch on YouTube

Basically Westbrook (unlike any other guards I've ever seen) pretty much lets his man go and crowd the paint to get the rebound. He does this even when they have a lot of bigs positioned to get defensive rebounds (see the sequence from 35 seconds to 40 seconds).
There were a lot of people stat padding their point totals (e.g. Kobe) and bigs stat padding their rebounds (e.g. Rodman), but this is the first time that I recall where I see a point guard stat padding his rebound totals because Westbrook probably is obsessed with this triple double business. And we all laud him for it.

[bondom34]

Basically Westbrook (unlike any other guards I've ever seen) pretty much lets his man go and crowd the paint to get the rebound. He does this even when they have a lot of bigs positioned to get defensive rebounds (see the sequence from 35 seconds to 40 seconds).
There were a lot of people stat padding their point totals (e.g. Kobe) and bigs stat padding their rebounds (e.g. Rodman), but this is the first time that I recall where I see a point guard stat padding his rebound totals because Westbrook probably is obsessed with this triple double business. And we all laud him for it.

And we have statisitcal proof that video is BS, over multiple years and this one. I mean, I could argue Curry is a no defense 3 point chucker because I think so too. It would be just as bad an argument.

And why do you think he's obsessed with it? Has he told you? Has he said it elsewhere? Or are you projecting a negative personality trait on him because it fits a notion you want to believe. Because the latter is the only one there that actually makes sense.

I'd need actual numbers to prove he's doing this. If you'd care to show how he's hurting the team, please do. However keep in mind:

1. They're better at rebounding when he's on court.
2. Their transition game is better when he rebounds.
3. They have an actual losing record in his non triple double games.

Edit: Also really? That YouTube channel has a single video and that's it? I mean, that's a reliable source for actual information you'd use? And to top it off its bad information?

[mtron929]

Basically Westbrook (unlike any other guards I've ever seen) pretty much lets his man go and crowd the paint to get the rebound. He does this even when they have a lot of bigs positioned to get defensive rebounds (see the sequence from 35 seconds to 40 seconds).
There were a lot of people stat padding their point totals (e.g. Kobe) and bigs stat padding their rebounds (e.g. Rodman), but this is the first time that I recall where I see a point guard stat padding his rebound totals because Westbrook probably is obsessed with this triple double business. And we all laud him for it.

And we have statisitcal proof that video is BS, over multiple years and this one. I mean, I could argue Curry is a no defense 3 point chucker because I think so too. It would be just as bad an argument.

And why do you think he's obsessed with it? Has he told you? Has he said it elsewhere? Or are you projecting a negative personality trait on him because it fits a notion you want to believe. Because the latter is the only one there that actually makes sense.

I'd need actual numbers to prove he's doing this. If you'd care to show how he's hurting the team, please do. However keep in mind:

1. They're better at rebounding when he's on court.
2. Their transition game is better when he rebounds.
3. They have an actual losing record in his non triple double games.

Edit: Also really? That YouTube channel has a single video and that's it? I mean, that's a reliable source for actual information you'd use? And to top it off its bad information?

Well, I would like to preface that Westbrook is a remarkable player. Truly amazing talent. But I do still believe that he is in this Kobe mode of wanting some sort of a personal glory here and I've seen many Thunder games this year where he is parked near the paint (leaving his man wide open at the 3 point line) to get the rebounds. Also, if you look at the videos, you see that unlike a lot of the teams, the FT miss defensive rebound seems to go to Westbrook first (I don't think this situation really helps start a fast break as the defense is set already, so it is just about who is getting their rebound total up).

Here is another video of a recent Thunder highlight. Watch where Westbrook is positioned in a lot of these defensive sequences.

Watch on YouTube

[mtron929]

Look. I will just provide a simple argument. In a free throw miss, usually point guards do not get all the defensive rebounds. And it really does not impact the game on who gets these rebounds. However, it seems like Westbrook seems to get a lot of these for the Thunder. Why? Because I would only have to assume that he would want to get his rebound totals high to enhance the chances of getting a triple double.

[bondom34]

Basically Westbrook (unlike any other guards I've ever seen) pretty much lets his man go and crowd the paint to get the rebound. He does this even when they have a lot of bigs positioned to get defensive rebounds (see the sequence from 35 seconds to 40 seconds).
There were a lot of people stat padding their point totals (e.g. Kobe) and bigs stat padding their rebounds (e.g. Rodman), but this is the first time that I recall where I see a point guard stat padding his rebound totals because Westbrook probably is obsessed with this triple double business. And we all laud him for it.

And we have statisitcal proof that video is BS, over multiple years and this one. I mean, I could argue Curry is a no defense 3 point chucker because I think so too. It would be just as bad an argument.

And why do you think he's obsessed with it? Has he told you? Has he said it elsewhere? Or are you projecting a negative personality trait on him because it fits a notion you want to believe. Because the latter is the only one there that actually makes sense.

I'd need actual numbers to prove he's doing this. If you'd care to show how he's hurting the team, please do. However keep in mind:

1. They're better at rebounding when he's on court.
2. Their transition game is better when he rebounds.
3. They have an actual losing record in his non triple double games.

Edit: Also really? That YouTube channel has a single video and that's it? I mean, that's a reliable source for actual information you'd use? And to top it off its bad information?

Well, I would like to preface that Westbrook is a remarkable player. Truly amazing talent. But I do still believe that he is in this Kobe mode of wanting some sort of a personal glory here and I've seen many Thunder games this year where he is parked near the paint (leaving his man wide open at the 3 point line) to get the rebounds. Also, if you look at the videos, you see that unlike a lot of the teams, the FT miss defensive rebound seems to go to Westbrook first (I don't think this situation really helps start a fast break as the defense is set already, so it is just about who is getting their rebound total up).

Here is another video of a recent Thunder highlight. Watch where Westbrook is positioned in a lot of these defensive sequences.

And yet his defensive metrics rate out better than Curry and Harden, who aren't being criticized on that end. And the defense is better with him on court.



Again, care to explain instead of posting cherry picked videos? Because I can do that for every player in the NBA, and it isn't actually proving anything. Here's a highlight of Wilson Chandler last night, its one game. Maybe it proves he should be MVP too because posted without context he's playing very well.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

[mtron929]

And we have statisitcal proof that video is BS, over multiple years and this one. I mean, I could argue Curry is a no defense 3 point chucker because I think so too. It would be just as bad an argument.

And why do you think he's obsessed with it? Has he told you? Has he said it elsewhere? Or are you projecting a negative personality trait on him because it fits a notion you want to believe. Because the latter is the only one there that actually makes sense.

I'd need actual numbers to prove he's doing this. If you'd care to show how he's hurting the team, please do. However keep in mind:

1. They're better at rebounding when he's on court.
2. Their transition game is better when he rebounds.
3. They have an actual losing record in his non triple double games.

Edit: Also really? That YouTube channel has a single video and that's it? I mean, that's a reliable source for actual information you'd use? And to top it off its bad information?

Well, I would like to preface that Westbrook is a remarkable player. Truly amazing talent. But I do still believe that he is in this Kobe mode of wanting some sort of a personal glory here and I've seen many Thunder games this year where he is parked near the paint (leaving his man wide open at the 3 point line) to get the rebounds. Also, if you look at the videos, you see that unlike a lot of the teams, the FT miss defensive rebound seems to go to Westbrook first (I don't think this situation really helps start a fast break as the defense is set already, so it is just about who is getting their rebound total up).

Here is another video of a recent Thunder highlight. Watch where Westbrook is positioned in a lot of these defensive sequences.

And yet his defensive metrics rate out better than Curry and Harden, who aren't being criticized on that end. And the defense is better with him on court.



Again, care to explain instead of posting cherry picked videos? Because I can do that for every player in the NBA, and it isn't actually proving anything. Here's a highlight of Wilson Chandler last night, its one game. Maybe it proves he should be MVP too because posted without context he's playing very well.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

I mean, so you think all of this is happening organically? When Kobe had a string of 50+ point games, there was nothing organic about it. He knew that he had a streak going and wanted to keep up the streak. Same with Westbrook. I have to assume that he is hyper conscious of this triple double headline and is making a big effort to beef up his rebounds since that is the toughest one for a point guard to average 10+. It almost seems like the team has to kind of give him some of these rebounds for him to average 10+ and that is what is happening.

[bondom34]

I mean, so you think all of this is happening organically? When Kobe had a string of 50+ point games, there was nothing organic about it. He knew that he had a streak going and wanted to keep up the streak. Same with Westbrook. I have to assume that he is hyper conscious of this triple double headline and is making a big effort to beef up his rebounds since that is the toughest one for a point guard to average 10+. It almost seems like the team has to kind of give him some of these rebounds for him to average 10+ and that is what is happening.

I think it is a game plan to have him rebound the ball and push it up court, which I've said a few times (and has been shown a lot more). At the same time he's helping the team and you're claiming he's stat padding and it hurts the team which is categorically false. I have no clue what Kobe has to do with this, and what Westbrook is doing has been shown by multiple outlets to be helping the team, yet your claim is the opposite when there's no proof of it empirically. If you'd provide proof of him hurting the team (which would be great because they've won 6 straight and all are triple doubles), I'd be all for it. Yet you posted 2 videos that don't show anything while his defense and rebounding numbers are great. You also fail to mention that Harden is in a system totally built around him racking up assists because he has the ball in his hands more than Westbrook does, has similar to worse defense, doesn't rebound as well, and has better team support offensively. You've provided no real evidence itt that I've seen and have made pretty false claims at the same time.

[bondom34]

Look. I will just provide a simple argument. In a free throw miss, usually point guards do not get all the defensive rebounds. And it really does not impact the game on who gets these rebounds. However, it seems like Westbrook seems to get a lot of these for the Thunder. Why? Because I would only have to assume that he would want to get his rebound totals high to enhance the chances of getting a triple double.

Or because it helps the team? Or nah that's too simple.

[HurricaneKid]

I mean, so you think all of this is happening organically? When Kobe had a string of 50+ point games, there was nothing organic about it. He knew that he had a streak going and wanted to keep up the streak. Same with Westbrook. I have to assume that he is hyper conscious of this triple double headline and is making a big effort to beef up his rebounds since that is the toughest one for a point guard to average 10+. It almost seems like the team has to kind of give him some of these rebounds for him to average 10+ and that is what is happening.

I think it is a game plan to have him rebound the ball and push it up court, which I've said a few times (and has been shown a lot more). At the same time he's helping the team and you're claiming he's stat padding and it hurts the team which is categorically false. I have no clue what Kobe has to do with this, and what Westbrook is doing has been shown by multiple outlets to be helping the team, yet your claim is the opposite when there's no proof of it empirically. If you'd provide proof of him hurting the team (which would be great because they've won 6 straight and all are triple doubles), I'd be all for it. Yet you posted 2 videos that don't show anything while his defense and rebounding numbers are great. You also fail to mention that Harden is in a system totally built around him racking up assists because he has the ball in his hands more than Westbrook does, has similar to worse defense, doesn't rebound as well, and has better team support offensively. You've provided no real evidence itt that I've seen and have made pretty false claims at the same time.

On missed free throws? You think it HELPS OKC to have him abandon his man to cover rebounding ground his team already has covered? Or to not box out the shooter to get in more advantageous rebounding position that is more likely to get him a rebound (while also making it more likely the opposing team gets an offensive rebound)? I think it is perfectly evident he is eschewing optimal play for statistical accomplishments. And its not just a video here or there. This has been widely discussed here, Reddit, etc. And AGAIN, Adams has played like 40 min this season without RWB. So you are going to have defensive on/off splits looking fairly generous to his defensive output.

Of COURSE Harden is in a system designed to maximize his talents. Having him operate with the ball has Hou as the 2nd leading scoring team in the NBA. And that is NOT a gifted offensive team when he is not leading it. In fact, without him on the floor they are ~21st in the league offensively. Now having so many shooters on the floor with him is CERTAINLY quite helpful. But I don't see him doing things for personal achievement that are detrimental to team success (though I suspect we may see a return of the lazy defense we saw last year at some point).

A 6 game win streak isn't nearly as impressive when the best win you have in there is @NYK. If they go 3-1 in their next 4 I will be more impressed.

No one is suggesting RWB isn't amazing. We are simply pointing out that the tail is wagging the dog at times and that statistical accomplishments should never come at the expense of playing winning basketball.

FTR, I would currently vote for RWB. I just think you should acknowledge optimal play has been sacrificed to achieve this statistical achievement at times.

[ken6199]

Just like to point out Harden's usage rate this season is 33.8%, while WB is 41%.

WB has the ball in his hands a lot more than Harden.

FG/FGA per100: Harden 11/25, WB 14/33.

[The_Hater]

I think Westbrook will win the MVP if the thunder finish the season with about 50 wins and that Westbrook has on average a triple double.A triple double for a season would be one of the most incredible feat in sports history.

.

I tend to agree with this. A triple double is just too impressive to overlook.

50 wins would have the magic # I think as nobody predicted them to win that many. If they're in the 44-49 range, then the race opens up more.

[Triples333]

Just like to point out Harden's usage rate this season is 33.8%, while WB is 41%.

WB has the ball in his hands a lot more than Harden.

FG/FGA per100: Harden 11/25, WB 14/33.

That's actually not how Usage% is calculated, and while their time of possession is very similar (especially adjusted their mpg to an even level), Harden actually has the ball in his hands the most out of any player in the NBA (9.1 mpg to Westbrook's 8.9). Those are massive numbers on both counts. For reference, Curry holds the ball 4.9 minutes a game, KD 2.4 minutes, and Klay 1.5 minutes (IE they both have the ball in their hands more than all three of those guys put together). That's what happens when the players who receive the most touches are also both top-10 in seconds per touch.

[bondom34]

On missed free throws? You think it HELPS OKC to have him abandon his man to cover rebounding ground his team already has covered? Or to not box out the shooter to get in more advantageous rebounding position that is more likely to get him a rebound (while also making it more likely the opposing team gets an offensive rebound)? I think it is perfectly evident he is eschewing optimal play for statistical accomplishments. And its not just a video here or there. This has been widely discussed here, Reddit, etc. And AGAIN, Adams has played like 40 min this season without RWB. So you are going to have defensive on/off splits looking fairly generous to his defensive output.

Of COURSE Harden is in a system designed to maximize his talents. Having him operate with the ball has Hou as the 2nd leading scoring team in the NBA. And that is NOT a gifted offensive team when he is not leading it. In fact, without him on the floor they are ~21st in the league offensively. Now having so many shooters on the floor with him is CERTAINLY quite helpful. But I don't see him doing things for personal achievement that are detrimental to team success (though I suspect we may see a return of the lazy defense we saw last year at some point).

A 6 game win streak isn't nearly as impressive when the best win you have in there is @NYK. If they go 3-1 in their next 4 I will be more impressed.

No one is suggesting RWB isn't amazing. We are simply pointing out that the tail is wagging the dog at times and that statistical accomplishments should never come at the expense of playing winning basketball.

FTR, I would currently vote for RWB. I just think you should acknowledge optimal play has been sacrificed to achieve this statistical achievement at times.

I posted the stats a page ago. Tell me how this hurts. With real evidence.

And as for OKC, they're a worse offensive cast. It has been disporven on reddit as well, so using that as a sources seems like a bad idea. And AGAIN, you have no actual evidence of what you claim.

[bondom34]

Just like to point out Harden's usage rate this season is 33.8%, while WB is 41%.

WB has the ball in his hands a lot more than Harden.

FG/FGA per100: Harden 11/25, WB 14/33.

That's not how USG is calculated. It has nothing w/ time of poss. in it.

[Zombiesonics]

'hunting assists' and 'stealing rebounds' is an actual thing in nba game. Westbrook is indeed the king of hunting assists, but i have no qualms with his rebounding tactics. I think houston is just a way better team, and harden having better efficiency will make it obvious he is the mvp. i couldnt care less about a triple double, i would be more impressed if he aveaged 35 ppg+, which i dont think he is capable of.

[HurricaneKid]

On missed free throws? You think it HELPS OKC to have him abandon his man to cover rebounding ground his team already has covered? Or to not box out the shooter to get in more advantageous rebounding position that is more likely to get him a rebound (while also making it more likely the opposing team gets an offensive rebound)? I think it is perfectly evident he is eschewing optimal play for statistical accomplishments. And its not just a video here or there. This has been widely discussed here, Reddit, etc. And AGAIN, Adams has played like 40 min this season without RWB. So you are going to have defensive on/off splits looking fairly generous to his defensive output.

Of COURSE Harden is in a system designed to maximize his talents. Having him operate with the ball has Hou as the 2nd leading scoring team in the NBA. And that is NOT a gifted offensive team when he is not leading it. In fact, without him on the floor they are ~21st in the league offensively. Now having so many shooters on the floor with him is CERTAINLY quite helpful. But I don't see him doing things for personal achievement that are detrimental to team success (though I suspect we may see a return of the lazy defense we saw last year at some point).

A 6 game win streak isn't nearly as impressive when the best win you have in there is @NYK. If they go 3-1 in their next 4 I will be more impressed.

No one is suggesting RWB isn't amazing. We are simply pointing out that the tail is wagging the dog at times and that statistical accomplishments should never come at the expense of playing winning basketball.

FTR, I would currently vote for RWB. I just think you should acknowledge optimal play has been sacrificed to achieve this statistical achievement at times.

I posted the stats a page ago. Tell me how this hurts. With real evidence.

And as for OKC, they're a worse offensive cast. It has been disporven on reddit as well, so using that as a sources seems like a bad idea. And AGAIN, you have no actual evidence of what you claim.

You posted on/off stats that are notoriously noisy when used over entire seasons; only you are not only using them over 1/4 of the season, but ignoring that one of the best defenders in the league has played almost every single one of his minutes with RWB on the floor as well. So DRTG, which is just what OKC allows while RWB is on the floor, is going to be massively overstated.

Now his immense usage DOES allow OKC to use defensive stoppers with limited offensive games more frequently (I'm looking at you Roberson/Grant) that is reminiscent of the Iverson 76ers.

Asking for data sets on how it hurts the team to not box out, to leave team positions seeking individual achievements while using really flawed data sets yourself seems a bit off. Players shouldn't be rewarded for selfishly taking rebounds away from teammates. They shouldn't be rewarded for leaving their personal responsibilities for personal gain. And there is no question he is. How many rebounds is he taking short cuts for? More than you are admitting to for certain. Probably more than enough to drop him well under 10 reb a game. Does it mean he isn't a massively talented player having a great season with a flawed roster? Of course not. I just don't like arbitrary achievements in general, and when they are accomplished at a cost of not playing the right way it is even more frustrating.